IMF-交易成本如何影响汇款（英）-2022.11-43正式版.pdf

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1、How Do Transaction Costs Influence Remittances?Kangni Kpodar and Patrick Amir Imam WP/22/218 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s)and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s)and do not ne

2、cessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management.2022 NOV*Kpodar:International Monetary Fund and FERDI;Imam:International Monetary Fund.This paper benefited from insightfulcomments and suggestions from Carine Meyimdjui,Cedric Okou,Baoping Shang and Azar Sultanov.This re

3、search is part of theMacroeconomic Research in Low-Income Countries project(Project ID:60925)supported by the UKs Foreign,Commonwealthand Development Office(FCDO).The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent theviews of the International Monetary Fund(I

4、MF),or FCDO.2022 International Monetary Fund WP/22/218IMF Working Paper Strategy,Policy and Review Department and Institute for Capacity Development How Do Transaction Costs Influence Remittances?Prepared by Kangni Kpodar and Patrick Amir Imam*Authorized for distribution by Johannes Wiegand November

5、 2022 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s)and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s)and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management.ABSTRACT

6、:Using a new quarterly panel database on remittances(71 countries over the period 2011Q1-2020Q4),this paper investigates the elasticity of remittances to transaction costs in a high frequency and dynamic setting.It adds to the literature by systematically exploring the heterogeneity in the cost-elas

7、ticity of remittances along several country characteristics.The findings suggest that cost reductions have a short-term positive impact on remittances,that dissipates beyond one quarter.According to our estimates,reducing transaction costs to the Sustainable Development Goal target of 3 percent coul

8、d generate an additional US$32bn in remittances,higher that the direct cost savings from lower transaction costs,thus suggesting an absolute elasticity greater than one.Among remittance cost-mitigation factors,higher competition in the remittance market,a deeper financial sector,and adequate corresp

9、ondent banking relationships are associated with a lower elasticity of remittance to transaction costs.Similarly,remittance cost-adaptation factors such as enhanced transparency in remittance costs,improved financial literary and higher ICT development coincide with remittances being less sensitive

10、to transaction costs.Supplementing the panel analysis,the use of micro data from the USA-Mexico corridor confirm that migrants facing higher transaction costs tend to remit less,and that this effect is less pronounced for skilled migrants and those that have access to a bank account.JEL Classificati

11、on Numbers:D23,F24,F32 Keywords:Remittances;Transaction Costs;Elasticity;Migration Authors E-Mail Address:pimamimf.org;kkpodarimf.org WORKING PAPERS How Do Transaction Costs Influence Remittances?Prepared by Kangni Kpodar and Patrick Amir Imam IMF WORKING PAPERS How Do Transaction Costs Influence Re

12、mittances?INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2 Contents I.INTRODUCTION.4 II.DATA AND EMPIRICAL STRATEGY.7 A.Cost of Remittances and Remittance Flow Data.7 B.Stylized Facts on Remittance Costs.8 C.The Model and Econometric Approach.12 III.THE RESULTS .13 A.How Elastic Are Remittances to Transaction Costs?.1

13、3 B.Explaining Heterogeneities in the Cost Elasticity of Remittances.16 C.Examining the Response of Remittances to Transaction Cost:Evidence from Micro Data from the US-Mexico Corridor.25 IV.Conclusion.29 References.38 FIGURES 1.Average fee as a share of a$200 USD remittance(2011Q1-2020Q4)(percent).

14、8 2.Change in Average fee for a$200 USD remittance(2016Q1-2020Q1)(percent).9 3.Trends in Average fee for a$200 USD remittance and Interest Rate Spread(2011-20)(percent).10 4.Average fee for a$200 USD remittance by Type of Provider(2011Q1-2020Q4)(percent).11 5.Remittances Flows and Average fee for a$

15、200 USD remittance(2011Q1-2020Q4).11 6.Cost-Elasticity of Remittances:Local Projections.15 7.Cost-Elasticity of Remittances with Respect to Competition in the Remittance Market.18 8.Cost-Elasticity of Remittances in Countries with Low and High Financial Development .19 9.Cost-Elasticity of Remittanc

16、es and Correspondent banking relationships .20 10.Cost-Elasticity of Remittances and Price Transparency.21 11.Cost-Elasticity of Remittances and Education level.22 12.Cost-Elasticity of Remittances and ICT Development .24 13.Cost-Elasticity of Remittances and ICT Affordability.25 TABLES 1.Transactio

17、n Costs and Remittances:Fixed-Effect Estimates .14 2.Transaction Costs and Remittances in the US-Mexico Corridor.27 3.Transaction Costs and Remittances in the US-Mexico Corridor:The Role of Financial Literacy.28 4.Transaction Costs and Remittances in the US-Mexico Corridor:Instrumental Variable Appr

18、oach.29 ANNEXES 1.Sample Composition.31 2.Summary Statistics and Correlation Matrix.32 IMF WORKING PAPERS How Do Transaction Costs Influence Remittances?INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3 ANNEX TABLES 1.Cost-Elasticity of Remittances:Local Projections.33 2.First-Stage Regression.34 ANNEX FIGURES 1.Change

19、 Cost-Elasticity of Remittances:Instrumental Variable Local Projections.34 2.Cost-Elasticity of Remittances:Low vs High Transaction Cost.35 3.Cost-Elasticity of Remittances with respect to the Geographical Coverage of Financial Institution.35 4.Cost-Elasticity of Remittances with respect to Access t

20、o Deposit Accounts.36 5.Cost-Elasticity of Remittances and ICT Access.36 6.Cost-Elasticity of Remittances and ICT Use.37 7.Cost-Elasticity of Remittances and ICT Capability.37IMF WORKING PAPERS How Do Transaction Costs Influence Remittances?INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 4 INTRODUCTION Remittances matt

21、er for development.They are a key source of funding for developing countries.Migrants send part of their earnings to family members to provide them with basic subsistence,build and invest in the economy back home.According to World Bank data,remittances to low-and middle-income countries more than d

22、oubled during the past 15 years to reach US$550 billion in 2021.Over half of it goes to people in rural areas,and about 75 percent is used to cover basics such as food and medical or school expenses,while the remaining is invested in assets or saved(IFAD,2021).Being a major source of income for the

23、poorest households,policy makers in advanced and developing countries are looking at avenues to encourage remittance flows to grow even further.However,a major stumbling block in sending money home is the high,some would argue excessive,transaction costs involved.Despite the commitments from the int

24、ernational community to reduce the cost of remittances,and the inclusion of the 3 percent cost target in the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs),progress has been slow in recent years.1 The strong resilience of remittances during the Covid-19 pandemic has brought back to the forefront the debate sur

25、rounding the stubbornly high transaction costs(see Kpodar et al.,2021).It is accepted wisdom that individuals sending money home in many parts of the world,particularly sub-Saharan Africa,are paying a very high cost,which may dissuade further flows.Considering fees,exchange rate margin and other cos

26、ts,between 5 and 15 percent of remittances are“lost”due to high transaction costs,depending on the country and the amounts send home(Ratha,2021).Because formal remittances involve high fixed costs and hence are expensive to provide,low-income individuals refrain from remitting,or are incentivized to

27、 use cheaper informal alternatives(Gibson,McKenzie and Rohorua,2006;Yang,2011).Against this backdrop,this paper attempts to address the following questions:how elastic are remittances to changes in transaction costs?what are the factors or policy interventions that may help explain cross-country dif

28、ferences in the cost elasticity of remittances?This paper is related to several strands of the literature.First,a large body of work looks at the impact of remittances at the macroeconomic and microeconomic level.Many studies find that remittances stimulate growth,although no broad consensus exists

29、yet on that matter(see Cazachevicia,Havraneka,and Horvath,2020,for a recent discussion).This favorable impact builds on the premise that remittances are an important source of development financing,a significant source of international reserves,and often arrive countercyclically.At the micro-level,r

30、emittances respond to income shortfalls and,in that way,have the potential to smooth households income,thereby reducing risks to the family(Choi and Yang,2007).Remittances are also linked to improved economic,health and education outcomes as well as higher financial inclusion.However,there are also

31、potentially some deleterious effects observable at the macro-level(Chami,Fullenkamp,and Jahjah,2003).Besides producing Dutch Disease-type effects,potentially reducing the quality of institutions,or delaying needed fiscal adjustment,remittances 1 The SDGs include the objective to“by 2030,reduce to le

32、ss than 3 per cent the transaction costs of migrant remittances and eliminate remittance corridors with costs higher than 5 per cent”(SDG 10.C).IMF WORKING PAPERS How Do Transaction Costs Influence Remittances?INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 5 may also complicate the monetary transmission mechanism,maki

33、ng monetary policy harder.There is also evidence that remittances may breed dependency by discouraging receiving household members from working,possibly trapping countries into anemic long-run growth(see Amuedo-Dorantes,2014,for a summary).Second,a narrow set of studies investigate the determinants

34、of remittance transaction costs.For instance,Freund and Spatafora(2008)use cross-country data for 66 countries and find that recorded remittances depend positively on stocks of migrants and negatively on transaction costs and exchange rate restrictions.Transaction costs are also lower when financial

35、 systems are more developed,and exchange rates are less volatile.Similarly,Beck and Martinez Peria(2011)conclude,based on a dataset covering 119 country corridors,that the size of the migrant population,banking competition and lower barriers to access banking services are conducive to lower remittan

36、ce costs.More recently,Beck,Janfils,and Kpodar(2022)exploit a richer remittance cost dataset to show that cost-and risk-based constraints as well as market structure hinder affordable remittance transaction costs.Corridor and firm-specific analysis reveals that higher income per capita,easier geogra

37、phical access to financial institutions,larger remittance market,shorter distance between sending and receiving countries,competition in the remittance market,and pegged exchange rate regime are associated with lower transaction costs.In the same vein,da Silva Filho(2021)underscores that the drivers

38、 of remittance costs are multiple and complex,with regulatory issues(such as exclusivity clauses,stringent AML/CFT regulation,and restrictive licensing),a lack of price transparency,higher number of banks and a thin remittance market being likely to have a detrimental effect on remittance costs.Thir

39、d,there are several selected studies focusing on the cost elasticity of remittances.These range from cross-country and panel studies(e.g.;Freund and Spatafora,2008,Ahmed,Mughal,and Martnez-Zarzoso,2021)to country-specific studies(Ferriani and Oddo,2019,on migrants in Italy;Kosse and Vermeulen,2014,o

40、n migrants in the Netherlands;Kakhkharova,Akimovb,and Rohdeb(2017)on migrants in Russia;Ahmed and Martnez-Zarzoso,2016,on migrants from Pakistan;and Gibson,McKenzie,and Rohorua(2006)on migrants from Tonga).Overall,these studies document a significant and negative effect of transaction costs on remit

41、tance inflows,partly due to high transaction costs encouraging informal remittances.Nevertheless,these studies do not go beyond the cost elasticity estimate to investigate how this varies across countries with different characteristics.In this paper,we improve on existing studies along several dimen

42、sions.First,we exploit a new quarterly database on remittances,allowing us to investigate the elasticity of remittances to cost with high frequency data in a dynamic setting using local projections(Jorda,2005).As such,this paper sheds light on the short-and medium-term impact of a shock to transacti

43、on costs on remittances and how persistent this effect might be.Second,unlike previous studies,this paper undertakes a systematic analysis of factors that can shape the cost elasticity of remittances.It is important to note that we are not taking a view on whether having a low-cost elasticity to rem

44、ittances is gooda low elasticity implies less reduction in remittance flows when transaction costs increase,but also lower increase in remittances occurs when transaction costs are reduced.But the reason to focus on elasticities is that a lower elasticity will imply that fewer remittances flow infor

45、mally.Two broad categories of factors/policies are considered:(i)cost-mitigation IMF WORKING PAPERS How Do Transaction Costs Influence Remittances?INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 6 policies that directly tackle the root causes of high remittance costs(e.g.policies to promote competition in the remittanc

46、e market,foster financial sector development,and safeguard correspondent banking relationships)and(ii)cost-adaptation policies that do not primarily address the cost of remittances,but promote more efficient remittance choices(e.g.policies to enhance price transparency,financial literary and informa

47、tion and communication technologies(ICT)development).Third,this paper uses micro data from the USA-Mexico corridor to ascertain the cost elasticity of remittances and its heterogeneity with respect to financial literacy,thus providing more granular results to support the evidence found at the macro

48、level.Studying the USA-Mexico corridor is interesting from several standpoints.It is the largest corridor in the word;has several remittance service providers with a large array of products;and has in-depth publicly available data.With a sample covering 71 countries over the period 2011Q1-2020Q4,the

49、 findings suggest that a 10 percent reduction in transaction costs leads to a 0.9 percent increase in remittances in the first quarter after the shock,with the impact becoming statistically insignificant from zero in subsequent quarters,implying that the response of remittances to transaction costs

50、is essentially of a short-term nature.This result suggests that moving from the 2020 level of transaction costs(6.3 percent)to the SDG target of 3 percent will generate an additional US$32 billion in remittances,much larger than the direct cost savings.Therefore,migrants would not only fully pass on