美国能源部+陆上风电市场报告：2022年版-91正式版.pdf

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1、Land-Based Wind Market Report:2022 Editionii This report is being disseminated by the U.S.Department of Energy(DOE).As such,this document was prepared in compliance with Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for fiscal year 2001(public law 106-554)and information qual

2、ity guidelines issued by DOE.Though this report does not constitute“influential”information,as that term is defined in DOEs information quality guidelines or the Office of Management and Budgets Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review,the study was reviewed both internally and externally prior

3、to publication.For purposes of review,the study benefited from the advice and comments of eleven industry stakeholders,U.S.Government employees,and national laboratory staff.NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government.Neither the Unite

4、d States government nor any agency thereof,nor any of their employees,makes any warranty,express or implied,or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy,completeness,or usefulness of any information,apparatus,product,or process disclosed,or represents that its use would not infr

5、inge privately owned rights.Reference herein to any specific commercial product,process,or service by trade name,trademark,manufacturer,or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement,recommendation,or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof.The views and

6、 opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or any agency thereof.Available electronically at SciTech Connect:http:/www.osti.gov/scitech Available for a processing fee to U.S.Department of Energy and its contractors,in paper,from:U.

7、S.Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information P.O.Box 62 Oak Ridge,TN 37831-0062 OSTI:http:/www.osti.gov Phone:865.576.8401 Fax:865.576.5728 Email:reportsosti.gov Available for sale to the public,in paper,from:U.S.Department of Commerce National Technical Information Service

8、5301 Shawnee Road Alexandria,VA 22312 NTIS:http:/www.ntis.gov Phone:800.553.6847 or 703.605.6000 Fax:703.605.6900 Email:ordersntis.gov Land-Based Wind Market Report iii Preparation and Authorship This report was prepared by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory for the Wind Energy Technologies Offic

9、e of the U.S.Department of Energys Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.Corresponding authors of the report are:Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger,Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.The full author list includes:Ryan Wiser,Mark Bolinger,Ben Hoen,Dev Millstein,Joe Rand,Galen Barbose,Nam Darg

10、houth,Will Gorman,Seongeun Jeong,and Ben Paulos.Land-Based Wind Market Report iv Acknowledgments For their support of this ongoing report series,the authors thank the entire U.S.Department of Energy(DOE)Wind Energy Technologies Office team.In particular,we acknowledge Gage Reber and Patrick Gilman.F

11、or reviewing elements of this report or providing key input,we also thank:Manussawee Sukunta(U.S.Energy Information Administration);Andrew David(Silverado Policy Accelerator);Charlie Smith(Energy Systems Integration Group);Feng Zhao(Global Wind Energy Council);David Milborrow(consultant);John Hensle

12、y(American Clean Power Association);Mattox Hall(Vestas);Aaron Barr(Wood Mackenzie);and Patrick Gilman,Gage Reber,and Liz Hartman(DOE).For providing data that underlie aspects of the report,we thank the U.S.Energy Information Administration,BloombergNEF,Wood Mackenzie,Global Wind Energy Council,and t

13、he American Clean Power Association.Thanks also to Donna Heimiller(NREL)for assistance in mapping wind resource quality;and to Amy Howerton,Carol Laurie and Alexsandra Lemke(NREL),and Liz Hartman and Heather Doty(DOE)for assistance with layout,formatting,production,and communications.Lawrence Berkel

14、ey National Laboratorys contributions to this report were funded by the Wind Energy Technologies Office,Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy of the DOE under Contract No.DE-AC02-05CH11231.The authors are solely responsible for any omissions or errors contained herein.Land-Based Wind Mark

15、et Report v List of Acronyms ACPACP American Clean Power Association BPABPA Bonneville Power Administration CAISOCAISO CODCOD CCACCA California Independent System Operator commercial operation date community choice aggregator DOEDOE U.S.Department of Energy EIAEIA U.S.Energy Information Administrati

16、on ERCOTERCOT Electric Reliability Council of Texas FAAFAA Federal Aviation Administration FERCFERC Federal Energy Regulatory Commission GEGE General Electric Corporation GWGW gigawatt HTSHTS Harmonized Tariff Schedule IOUIOU investor-owned utility IPPIPP independent power producer ISOISO independen

17、t system operator ISOISO-NENE New England Independent System Operator ITCITC investment tax credit kVkV kilovolt kWkW kilowatt kWhkWh kilowatt-hour LCOELCOE levelized cost of energy mm2 2 square meter MISOMISO Midcontinent Independent System Operator MWMW megawatt MWhMWh megawatt-hour NRELNREL Natio

18、nal Renewable Energy Laboratory NYISONYISO New York Independent System Operator O&MO&M operations and maintenance OEMOEM original equipment manufacturer PJMPJM PJM Interconnection POUPOU publicly owned utility PPAPPA power purchase agreement PTCPTC production tax credit RECREC renewable energy certi

19、ficate Land-Based Wind Market Report vi RPSRPS renewables portfolio standard RTORTO regional transmission organization SGRESGRE Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy SPPSPP Southwest Power Pool WW watt WAPAWAPA Western Area Power Administration WECCWECC Western Electricity Coordinating Council Land-Based

20、Wind Market Report vii Executive Summary Wind power additions in the United States totaled 13.4 gigawatts(GW)in 2021.Recent growth is supported by the industrys primary federal incentivethe production tax credit(PTC)as well as a myriad of state-level policies.Long-term improvements in the cost and p

21、erformance of wind power technologies have also been key drivers for wind capacity additions,even as supply chain constraints due to increased commodity and transportation costs and COVID-19 restrictions push costs higher.Key findings from this years Land-Based Wind Market Reportwhich primarily focu

22、ses on land-based,utility-scale windinclude:Installation Trends U.S.wind power capacity grew at a strong pace in 2021,with 13.4 GW of new capacity added and$20 billion invested.Cumulative wind capacity grew to nearly 136 gigawatts(GW)by the end of 2021.In addition,1.6 GW of existing wind plants were

23、 partially repowered in 2021,mostly by upgrading rotors and nacelle components.Wind power represented the second largest source of U.S.electric-power capacity additions in 2021,at 32%,behind solars 45%.Wind power constituted 32%of all generation and storage capacity additions in 2021.Over the last d

24、ecade,wind represented 30%of total capacity additions,and a larger fraction of new capacity in SPP(83%),ERCOT(52%),MISO(52%),and the non-ISO West(33%).1 Globally,the United States again ranked second in annual wind capacity,but remained well behind the market leaders in wind energy penetration.Globa

25、l grid-connected wind additions totaled 94 GW in 2021,yielding a cumulative 839 GW.The United States remained the second-leading market in terms of annual and cumulative capacity,behind China.A number of countries have achieved high levels of wind penetration,with wind supplying 44%of Denmarks total

26、 electricity generation in 2021,and over 20%in Ireland,Portugal,Spain,Germany,and the U.K.In the United States,wind supplied 9.1%.Texas installed the most wind capacity in 2021 with 3,343 MW,followed by Oklahoma,New Mexico and Kansas;eleven states exceeded 20%wind energy penetration.Texas also remai

27、ned the leader on a cumulative basis,with nearly 36 GW of capacity.Notably,the wind capacity installed in Iowa supplied 55%of all in-state electricity generation in 2021,while South Dakota(52%),Kansas(45%),Oklahoma(41%),and North Dakota(34%)were all above 30%.Within independent system operators(ISOs

28、),wind penetration(expressed as a percentage of load)was 34.8%in SPP,24.2%in ERCOT,12.0%in MISO,8.4%in CAISO,3.5%in PJM,3.0%in ISO-NE,and 2.7%in NYISO.Hybrid wind plants that pair wind with storage and other resources saw limited growth in 2021,with just two new projects completed.There were 41 hybr

29、id wind power plants in operation at the end of 2021,representing 2.4 GW of wind and 0.9 GW of co-located assets.The most common wind hybrid project combines wind and storage technology,where 1.4 GW of wind has been paired with 0.2 GW of battery storage.The average storage duration of these projects

30、 is 0.6 hours,suggesting a focus on ancillary services and limited capacity to shift large amounts of energy across time.While only two new wind hybrids were commissioned in 2021,solar hybrids expanded rapidly with 67 new PV+storage projects coming online in 2021.1 The nine regions most commonly use

31、d in this report are the Southwest Power Pool(SPP),Electric Reliability Council of Texas(ERCOT),Midcontinent Independent System Operator(MISO),California Independent System Operator(CAISO),ISO New England(ISO-NE),PJM Interconnection(PJM),and New York Independent System Operator(NYISO),and the non-IS

32、O West and Southeast.Land-Based Wind Market Report viii A record-high 247 GW of wind power capacity now exists in transmission interconnection queues,but solar and storage are growing at a much more rapid pace.At the end of 2021,there were 247 GW of wind capacity seeking transmission interconnection

33、,including 77 GW of offshore wind and 19 GW of hybrid wind projects(in the latter case,mostly wind paired with storage).In 2021,73 GW of wind capacity entered interconnection queues.Energy storage interconnection requests have increased rapidly in recent years,both for stand-alone and hybrid plants,

34、most-often pairing solar with storage.The West(non-ISO),SPP,and NYISO regions had the greatest quantity of wind in their queues at the end of 2021.Roughly one-third of all wind capacity added to queues in 2021 was for offshore wind plants.Industry Trends Just four turbine manufacturers,led by GE,sup

35、plied all of the U.S.wind power capacity installed in 2021.In 2021,GE captured 47%of the U.S.market for turbine installations,followed by Vestas at 26%and Siemens-Gamesa Renewable Energy(SGRE)and Nordex,both at 13%.2 The domestic wind industry supply chain contracted in 2021,with a 50%decline in bla

36、de manufacturing capability.Domestic nacelle assembly and tower manufacturing capability declined modestly in 2021,to an equivalent 12.3 GW and 9.2 GW per year,respectively.Blade manufacturing capability plummeted by 50%,however,as three domestic manufacturing facilities closed or idled,and stood at

37、 4.6 GW per year.More broadly,fierce competition and supply-chain constraints resulted in low profit margins for turbine manufacturers.Nonetheless,wind-related job totals in the United States increased in 2021,to 120,164.Domestic manufacturing content is strong for some wind turbine components,but t

38、he U.S.wind industry remains reliant on imports,which totaled$3.1 billion in 2021.The United States imports wind equipment from many countries,including most prominently in 2021:Mexico,Spain,and India.Domestic content is highest for nacelle assembly(85%)and towers(55%70%).For blades,it declined prec

39、ipitously to just 1525%in 2021 as competitive pressures made blade imports more economical than domestically produced blades.Independent power producers own the majority of wind assets built in 2021,following historical trends.Independent power producers(IPPs)own 75%of the new wind capacity installe

40、d in the United States in 2021,with the remaining assets(25%)owned by investor-owned utilities.Direct retail sales and merchant offtake arrangements for wind,in combination,matched or surpassed long-term contracted wind sales to utilities in 2021.Electric utilities either own(25%)or buy electricity(

41、19%)from wind projects that,in total,represent 44%of the new wind capacity installed in 2021.But direct retail purchasers of windincluding corporate offtakersaccount for at least 35%,while merchant/quasi-merchant projects and power marketers make up at least another 7%and 2%,respectively.The remaind

42、er(11%)is presently undisclosed.Technology Trends Turbine capacity,rotor diameter,and hub height have all increased significantly over the long term.To optimize project cost and performance,and thus minimize overall cost of energy,turbines continue to grow in size.The average rated(nameplate)capacit

43、y of newly installed wind turbines in the United States in 2021 was 3.0 MW,up 9%from the previous year and 319%since 19981999.The average rotor diameter of newly installed turbines in 2021 was 127.5 meters,a 2%increase over 2020 and 164%over 19981999,while the average hub height was 93.9 meters,up 4

44、%from 2020 and 66%since 19981999.2 Numerical values presented here and elsewhere may not add to 100%,due to rounding.Land-Based Wind Market Report ix Turbines originally designed for lower wind speed sites dominate the market,but the trend towards lower specific power has reversed over the last two

45、years.With growth in swept rotor area outpacing growth in nameplate capacity,there has been a decline in the average“specific power”3(in W/m2),from 393 W/m2 among projects installed in 19981999 to 231 W/m2 among projects installed in 2021though specific power has modestly increased over the last two

46、 years.Turbines with low specific power were originally designed for lower wind speed sites,but are now being used at many sites as the most attractive technology.Wind turbines were deployed in somewhat lower wind-speed sites in 2021 than in the previous seven years.Wind turbines installed in 2021 w

47、ere located in sites with an average estimated long-term wind speed of 8.0 meters per second at a height of 100 meters above the groundthis is the lowest average long-term wind speed among newly built projects in the last eight years.Federal Aviation Administration(FAA)and industry data on projects

48、that are either under construction or in development suggest that the sites likely to be built out over the next few years will,on average,have even lower average wind speeds.Increasing hub heights help to partially offset these trends,enabling turbines to access higher wind speeds.Low-specific-powe

49、r turbines are deployed on a widespread basis;taller towers are seeing increased use in a wider variety of sites.Low specific power turbines continue to be deployed in all regions,and at both lower and higher wind speed sites.The tallest towers(i.e.,those above 100 meters)are found in greater relati

50、ve frequency in the upper Midwest and Northeastern regions.Wind projects planned for the near future are poised to continue the trend of ever-taller turbines.The average“tip height”(from ground to blade tip extended directly overhead)among projects that came online in 2021 is 517 feet(158 meters).FA