德勤锂电白皮书系列之三：锂电回收未来可期（英）-34正式版.pdf

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1、China Lithium IndustryDeloitte POV 3.0:Sustainable Future of Lithium RecycleDeloitte ConsultingChina|November,2022 2022.For information,contact Deloitte China.2Key TakeawaysThe two main ways of EV battery recycling are reuse and direct recycle.The large-scale development of reuse faces enormous chal

2、lenges due to safety issues,insufficient market regulation,the impact of vicious competition,and the lack of industry standards.In the medium-to long-term,recycle with relatively mature technologies and commercial applications is expected to be the dominant approachIn the material recovery process,p

3、yro-and hydro-metallurgy are the mainstream battery-grade raw material purification and regeneration techniques,which has high technical and scale barriers,while creating higher economic benefits,leading companies need to address the supply stability of front-end battery recyclingchannels andactivel

4、y layout raw material recycling capacity to achieve higher commercial valueWith the rapid growth of global new energy vehicle industry,the upstream resource constraint has become one of the burning issues.While various countries continue to perfect the EV battery recycling policy system under the ca

5、rbon neutral requirements,the EV battery recycling industry has been flourishing,and the upcoming battery retirement tide will further drive the development of the EV battery recycling industry.The EV battery recycling market is promising in technology development,business model,and industry chain s

6、ynergy,but there are still many key challenges.Upstream lithium and new energy vehicle industry technology and market trends,such as battery material innovation,integration technology,battery banks,etc.,bring impact to the power battery recycling industry,and opportunities and challenges coexistAn i

7、ndustry alliance of upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain may be an ideal model for the recycling industry,as each member enterprise can complement each others strengths and weaknesses for mutual benefits.However,due to the long industry chain and many stakeholders involved,the m

8、odel is still in the exploration stage of actual commercial operationFrom the technology development perspective,the process and technical route of EV battery recycling is relatively clear.Based on actual business expectations,direct recycle will dominate the recovery method in the medium-to long-te

9、rm:From the business model perspective,third-party and battery manufacturer recycling have been well-practiced.The construction of recycling networks and closed-loop regeneration are essential success factors:From the industry chain synergy perspective,the multiple sectors of the Li-battery and NEV

10、industry chain have shown the trend of extending to battery recycling in different forms and degrees:The market mechanism is the main challenge for the current development of the EV battery recycling industry.It forces the leading recycler enterprises to enhance their scale and break through the pro

11、fitability bottleneckThird-party recycling companies have the advantage of recycling technology,while battery manufacturers and automotive OEMs gained the advantage of recycling and resale channels;in the current EV battery recycling market,the key to successful business models lies in the construct

12、ion of recycling channel networks and a closed-loop ecology for recycling materials for reuse 2022.For information,contact Deloitte China.3 2022.For information,contact Deloitte China.3010203Industry overview and prospects of EV battery recycleValue chain analysis of EV battery recycleMarket challen

13、ges and business implicationsDeloitte Observations and POVTrend of EV Battery Recycle Development 2022.For information,contact Deloitte China.4 2022.For information,contact Deloitte China.4Industry overview and prospectsof EV battery recycle 2022.For information,contact Deloitte China.5The Imperativ

14、e EV Battery Recycling:Alleviation to The Constraint of Upstream ResourcesThe scarcity of upstream resources is a long-term constraint to the development of downstream application market.The lithium resource supply and demand gap is expected to emerge and expand gradually after 2025,reaching 145 ton

15、nes of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2030.EV battery recycling will alleviate the constraints of resource supply and demand imbalance on industry development to a certain extent.Source:CAAM,Minmetals Securities,public information,Deloitte analysisSupply:resource pressureDemand:surging EV market Re

16、source shortage in ChinaHigh-quality mineral resources are relatively scarce in China.There are few high-quality hard rock lithium mines,and the technology and production capacity of lithium extraction from salt-lake brine require breakthroughs.Uncertainty of international supplyThe supply of global

17、 raw materials is concentrated,and the production fluctuates wildly.Emergencies such as the epidemic outbreak and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have exacerbated the uncertainty of the global supply chain.Long capacity development cycle The development cycle of raw materials and minerals is relative

18、ly long.The resource production expansion cycle is about four times that of the EV batteries expansion cycle,thus leading to the mismatch between supply and demand.Strong application demandThe EV market,as the main application scenario of lithium resources,has entered a period of rapid growth,and th

19、e sales volume of EVs in China increased by more than 150%year-on-year in 2021.Difficulty in alternative R&DThe R&D of EV batteries with different chemicals is challenging.In the long run,Li-batteries,which have a relatively fixed demand for mineral resources,will still be the mainstay,and it is har

20、d to find an alternative solution in the short term.Intensive competitionBattery companies maintain a rapid pace of expansion to seize market share and drive the demand for upstream resources,amid the increasingly fierce competition in the EV battery industry.Global lithium resource supply and deman

21、d projection(Ten thousand tonnes/LCE)2022E 2023E2029E2026E2024E 2025E2027E 2028E2030EGlobal lithium supplyGlobal lithium demand100200300400-37%-1%2022.For information,contact Deloitte China.6The development of the global EV battery recycling market is about to accelerate,which is expected to exceed

22、10 billion dollars in the next five years,among which the recycling market of the lithium is the most considerableGlobal EV Battery Recycling Market Size ProspectsSource:Anson Securities,Wind,public information,Deloitte analysisRemarks:1.Estimate based on the theoretical recyclable quantity and pric

23、e of lithium,nickel,cobalt and manganese;2.Converted at the annual average exchange rate of USD to RMB in 2021(1USD=6.45RMB)Global EV battery recycling market size projection1Billion USD22024E63%3.462%61%6.0202171%2022E2030E67%2023E19.12025E62%62%2027E63%63%2029E2028E2026E26.60.84.79.113.535.746.5+8

24、1%+38%MnNiLiCo 2022.For information,contact Deloitte China.7Japan&South KoreaRegulate the industry from the legislative levelAfter years of development,battery recycling policies and legislation in developed countries are complete with stricter requirements;China has significantly accelerated the in

25、troduction of battery recycling policies over the past decade,aiming to promote and ensure the construction of recycling systems and guide the standardized and integrated development of the industryEV Battery Recycling Market Drivers-Macro Policy GuidanceSource:government website,Everbright Securiti

26、es,public information,Deloitte analysisInterim Measures for the Management of Recovery and Utilization of New Energy Vehicle Power BatteryKey Points of Energy Conservation and Comprehensive Utilization in Industry in 2020Accelerating the Promotion of Comprehensive Utilization of Industrial Resources

27、Implementation Plan for Industrial Carbon Dioxide PeakingNorth AmericaEuropeMIIT and othersix 2018Implementation of the extended producer responsibility system,clarify the primary responsibility fulfillers of battery recyclingMIIT and other two 2022To develop and introduce new energy vehicle power b

28、attery recycling management methods and related departmental rulesMIIT and other seven 2022To promote upstream and downstream cooperation in the industry chain to build recycling channelsMIIT 2020To promote the NEV power battery recycling system development,and to establish a number of exemplary ent

29、erprises for the secondary use and recycling of waste power batteriesChinaPolicy and legislative systems in developed countries started early and are relatively matureInterim Provisions on the Management of Traceability of New Energy Vehicle Power Battery RecyclingMIIT 2018Establish a“comprehensive

30、management platform for traceability”to collect information on the whole process from production to recycling of power batteriesThe Management Standards for New Energy Storage Projects(Provisional)NEA 2021Request for establishing the battery consistency management,and make requirements for the evalu

31、ation,monitoring and supervision of energy storage projects for secondary useComplete federal,state and local battery recycling regulationsEnhanced requirements and strengthen regulatory systemsGradually improve the establishment of the policy system to strengthen the regulation and policy implement

32、ationChinas policy guidance has been strengthened in recent yearsNational Blueprint for Lithium Batteries 2021-2030EU 2022The proposed battery regulations set increased targets related to power battery recycling,with stricter requirements for battery recycling measures and battery metal material rec

33、overy ratesNew EU Regulatory Framework for BatteriesGermany2021Regulatory agencies(Stiftung EAR)have the responsibility to regulate the battery manufacturing market and to check the collection and recycling efficiency of each recycling system and report market participationBattG2Diet of Japan 2001Ma

34、nufacturing enterprises should fulfill the responsibility of recycling the used products,follow the 3R principle,and encourage that end-users send end-of-life batteries to special recycling sitesThe Ministries of Japan 2004The Japan Portable Rechargeable Battery Recycling Center(JBRC),jointly author

35、ized by Japans two central ministries,aims to promote the comprehensive recycling of used rechargeable battery materialsThe U.S.DOE 2021Enables the end-of-life reuse of lithium-ion batteries and recycling of critical materials at scale,plan the construction of a full competitive value chain in the U

36、nited States,and promote the development of cost-effective recycling technologySwitzerland2022Guide to Waste issued by the Federal Office for Environmental clarify rules for recycling lithium batteries for vehicles and encourage automotive OEMs to implement environmentally sound disposal systemFOEN

37、Guide to WasteSouth Koreans Parliament 2021Ease regulation for mandatory battery recycling of previously registered vehicles and allow for environmental-friendly utilize of end-of-life batteries to improve the secondary utilization rate of power batteriesThe U.S.EPA1996Creates the framework for the

38、proper management of hazardous and non-hazardous solid waste,including rechargeable batteries,lithium-ion car batteries,etc.The Resource Conservation and Recovery ActThe U.S.State GovernmentsMakes regulations for the types of waste recycling,disposal methods,cost,etc.to encourage all parties in the

39、industry chain to collaborate to help properly recycle batteriesThe Law for Promotion of Effective Utilization of Resources in JapanClean Air Conservation Act 2022.For information,contact Deloitte China.8Driving Factor of Battery Recycling Market:The Upcoming Trend of EV Battery RetirementThe retire

40、ment tide of EV batteries has promoted the gradual release of recyclable battery waste and driven the development of the global lithium recycling market,with the volume of end-of-life batteries and process scraps rising at a CAGR of 43%over the next decade;The Chinese market,which leads the global E

41、V market,is also expected to usher in considerable growth in the field of Li-battery recyclingGlobal EV battery installation shares in 20214532272028E2026E2023E2022E20212024E2025E2027E2029E2030E611041563256218401,1191,483+43%End-of-life Li-batteryLi-battery process scrapsCathode process scrapsGWhWit

42、h the vigorous development of the global EV market,the installed capacity of EV batteries has risen rapidly.The service life of EV batteries is about 5-8 years.Therefore,the first batch of batteries put into the market has ushered in a“retirement tide”,especially in the Chinese market,where the prod

43、uction output and sales of EVs and EV batteries have soared since 2015.End-of-life batteries are the primary“raw materials”for EV battery recycling.The advent of the EV battery retirement tide will continue to provide recyclable waste for the Li-battery recycling.Chinas EV battery installation 154.5

44、 GWhThe projection of global recyclable end-of-life Li-batteries and battery production scraps52.1%1Other countries and regionsChinaSource:SNE Research,China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance,Wind,Anson Securities,public information,Deloitte analysisRemarks:1.Converted to the amount of EV batte

45、ries that can be produced 2022.For information,contact Deloitte China.9Reuse applicationRecycling Methods of EV BatteryReuse and direct recycle are the most generally acceptable and environmentally friendly methods of batteries disposal.Large-scale applications of EV battery reuse is challenging,and

46、 EV battery recycling might be dominated by direct recycle in the medium and long termReuse:utilization of the residual capacity of batteryRecycle:recovery of metal materials and other resourcesSource:CAAM,Anson Securities,public information,Deloitte analysisRecycling methodsProsCons Applicable limi

47、tations:not suitable for ternary(NMC)lithium battery,difficulty to maintain economies of scale subject to many qualifications Inefficiency:The evaluation process of batteries is time-consuming and inefficient Potential safety risks:The internal safety hazards of retired batteries are highly conceale

48、d,which affects the remaining life and safety of the battery packInspection,Data evaluationProperties detectionResistance determinationReusable packReusable moduleReusable cellRecycleAnode materialsGraphite,silicon-based materialsCathode materialsLithium,cobalt,nickel,manganese and other metal oxide

49、s,recycled by direct methodand extractive metallurgyElectrolytRecycled by extracting methodsOther materialsMetal shell,electrode material,recycled by dismantling,shredding and sorting Increase value:optimize the utilization of batteries and maximize the residual value Cost reduction:reduce the cost

50、of energy storage,low-speed electric vehicles and other related industries,and promote the development of the circular economy Reduce pollution:effectively reduce the pollution of waste lithium-ion batteries and reduce waste of resourcesEnd-of-life battery Cost issues:The pyro has a large investment