麦肯锡-全球豪华车领域的5个重要趋势-2022.010-14正式版.docx

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1、Automotive & Assembly PracticeFive trends shaping tomorrows luxury-car marketLuxury-car sales continue to surpass the mass market in terms of growth, profitability, and buzz. Heres why.by Mingyu Guan, Jan-Christoph Kstring, Simon Middleton, and Timo Mller Arand/Getty ImagesJuly 2022Luxury-vehicle br

2、ands stand apart. Where the mainstream market has largely stagnated, with little to no growth expected through 2031, the luxury segments should gain share during the same period, with growth rates ranging from 8 to 14 percent annually. Whats more, margins in the luxury segment ranged in the double d

3、igits from 2016 to 2021, while the mass market remained in the low single digits during the same period.Cultivating a separate marketThe luxury market is where the action currently is in the automotive world. In addition to traditional comfort, convenience, entertainment, and safety features, luxury

4、 cars bristle with advanced connectivity elements, autonomous-driving options, and the latest powertrain electrification technologies. They also have some of the strongest brands in the industry.Our latest report on the luxury-automobile market updates McKinseys extensive research on thesector.1 It

5、focuses on five significant trends in the global luxury-automobile segment2 that we believe will shape the market over the coming decade. To develop this perspective, we created two scenarios for market growth and electrificationone baseline and one acceleratedthat we used to inform our thinking (se

6、e sidebar, “Methodology”). This article largely follows the accelerated scenario.Global political and economic trends can influence the growth of luxury vehicles. The scope, pace, and characteristics of demand hinge on a variety of factors, including the creation of wealth, the promulgationof regula

7、tion, the state of the global economy, geopolitics, technological advancements, and OEM and supplier strategies. The world is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, along with recent supply chain disruptions and high inflation rates. The war in Ukraine has disrupted energy and food supply chains, an

8、d associated sanctions on Russia have affected economic stability. Consequently, economic development has become uneven across geographies, and the growth outlook is uncertain.MethodologyWhen plotting luxury-vehicle volumes and electrification rates, McKinsey used two growth scenarios. Baseline scen

9、ario: The analysis is based on 2021 starting volumes on the production of vehicles priced higher than $80,000 (base price and 10 percent premium for add-ons), and 2022 to 2025 growth on planned production capacity additions, as well as the announced and expected new launches of luxury OEMs. From 202

10、6 to 2031, the scenario assumes a continuation of growth in the number ofhigh-net-worth individuals and ultra-high-net-worth individuals of 9 and5 percent annually, respectively. The scenario derives electrification rates from McKinseys electrification model, which assumes continued battery technolo

11、gy improvements, decreasing battery prices, additional regulatory limits on internal-combustion-engine (ICE) sales, and the increased availability of charging stations, among other factors. Accelerated scenario: Building off the baseline scenario, the acceleratedstory adds new models during the peri

12、od from 2022 to 2025, pulled forward from the period from 2025 to 2031, with the added introduction of lower prices and higher-volume SUV variants. SUVs will lead in growth, followed by sports cars, and China will see a significant jump in SUV sales, which will benefit from a rising share of local p

13、roduction and new-product launches. High electric-vehicle penetration will result from an additional supply of battery-electric-vehicle models and variants. More cities will issue bans on ICE vehicles by 2031.1 “The new realities of premium mobility,” McKinsey, November 19, 2019.2 Cars with a manufa

14、cturers suggested retail price (MSRP) of $80,000 or more.2Five trends shaping tomorrows luxury-car market1) The luxury market will grow to serve wealthy consumersWhile there are many ways to segment the luxury-car marketby brand, powertrain, or price, forexamplein this report, we have segmented thel

15、uxury-car market based on four manufacturerssuggested retail price (MSRP) tiers. These tiersconsist of vehicles priced from $80,000 to$149,000, $150,000 to $299,000, $300,000 to$500,000, and above $500,000.3The four luxury segments are expanding at a compound annual growth rate of 8 to 14 percent th

16、rough 2031. In contrast, the market for cars that cost less than $80,000 is expected to remain virtually flat through 2031, with about 1 percent growth per year (Exhibit 1).4Exhibit 1The primary reason for the growth in the luxury-car segment involves the continued increase of ultra-high-net-worth i

17、ndividuals (UHNWI), people with more than $30 million in investable assets, and high-net-worth individuals (HNWI), people with assets ranging from $1 million to $30 million. With more millionaires (and billionaires) in more places, the nexus of sales growth for luxury automobiles has shifted from No

18、rth America and Europe to Asia and the Middle East. This new, more regional demand for high-ticket automobiles has attracted new entrants to the market because of strong geolocation and technology shifts, especially in China, resulting in more new-product launches.The luxury car segment will drive m

19、ost market growth.Segmentation of car market by vehicle cost rangeLuxuryUnits sold 2021,CAGR23%thousand units202131, %$500,000500,000$300,000300,000$500,000500,000$150,000150,000$299,000299,000$80,00080,000$149,000149,000Non-luxury9798%$500,00040504555556520251520253035401317154232021202620312021202

20、62031202120262031202120262031ACCELERATED SCENARIO$80,000$149,000$150,000$299,000$300,000$500,000$500,0007080809065754550354027322530354015423202120262031202120262031202120262031202120262031Regulation is comprehensive and aggressive; heavy taxation disincentivizes usage of internal-combustion-engine

21、(ICE) “hypercars”; ultra-low emissionzone-like regulations make it harder to drive ICE vehicles throughout cities. Regulation drives up the cost of manufacturing to levels at which OEMs fully switchto battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in-hybrid-electric (PHEV) models. Consumer preferences rea

22、ch a tipping point in which BEV and PHEV hypercarsare seen as more “in vogue” than ICE hypercars.Largest-volume models, including Lotus Evija, Pininfarina Battista, and Rimac C-Two.Source: Expert interviews; IHS Markit; McKinsey Center for Future Mobility; McKinsey analysisThe electrification levels

23、 in the $150,000-to-$500,000 price bands result from several trends, notably the influx of EV-focused disrupters and a strong supply side push. Regarding the former, the EV disrupters and several mainstream luxury brands already offer EV models, but many top luxury brands will likely remain on the s

24、idelines, at least until 2025, when their first models should arrive. The latter point regarding the supply side push will result from new regulations and technology. The scope of zero-emission mandates enabled by additional city bans on ICE vehicles by2031cities where HNWIs typically livewill likel

25、y grow, given the political momentum behind them and shifting consumer sentiments. Additionally, improvements in technology are making it possible for car manufacturers to offer similar or better performance in electric vehicles compared with luxury ICE cars.An important caveat regarding a brands em

26、brace of BEVs involves its starting point. While EV specialists begin from a core EV position, incumbent ICE OEMs must work through significant legacy combustion-Five trends shaping tomorrows luxury-car market5engine issues, including stranded assets, R&D integration problems, and likely false starts along the way, which can slow their transition to BEVs. The very top luxury and performance brands will likely feel this challenge acutely since they are drastically under scale by mainstream-automobile standards. That makes it harder for these brands to cha