2012年农业行业分析报告下篇(最新).pdf

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1、?2012?9?26?2013?CPI?2013?2013?2014?2014?2015?010-60838226?S1010510120004?010-60838274?S1010510120044?010-60838897?S1010512080007?1.?.2012.9.26 2.?.2012.9.26 3.?2012?.2011.12.7 4.?.2012.3.12 5.?.2012.3.16?.1?.1?.2?.4?.4?.4?.5?.6?.6?.7?.8?.8 2013?.10?1?.1?2?.1?3?.1?4?.1?5?.2?6?.2?7?.3?8?.3?9?2011?.3?1

2、0?.6?11?.7?12?.7?13?2013?.8?14?.8?1?.4?2?.5?3?.5?4?.6?5?.8?6?.9?7?.10?2012?9?26?1?1?/?250270290310330350370199219941996199820002002200420062008201030323436384042?Wind?2?010002000300040005000199819992000200120022003200520062007?Wind?5-10?50%?20%?50%?47%?3?024681012141981198319851987198919911993199519

3、971999200120032005200720092011E?FAO?4?%43%15%32%7%1%2%?FAO?1.3?0.7?2.2?2012?9?26?2?5?-10,00020,00030,00040,00050,000?/?FAO?6?1.180.540.230.773.761.6600.511.522.533.54?Wind?A?75?10?A?A?94%?6%?36%?2011?PE?34?2011?PE?23?2012?9?26?3?7?2011?21.36%6.62%51.80%13.78%6.45%?Wind?8?13.89%9.36%27.32%13.21%36.22

4、%?Wind?2012-9-22?9?2011?0%10%20%30%40%50%60%?Wind?GDP?CPI?1?1?2?300?2?3?2012?9?26?4 4?WIND?300?300?2002?CPI?2002?2005?1?100?2005?1?1?0.8742*0.6455*?Wind?*?10%?*?5%?*?1%?2012?9?26?5?6?10%?2?1.?0.8886*0.8644*2.?0.6474*0.5207*3.?0.8730*0.8516*4.?0.7921*0.7109*5.?0.7868*0.6813*6.?0.6572*0.5732*?Wind?*?1

5、0%?*?5%?*?1%?3?1.?-0.1058 0.0222 2.?-0.0488 0.0346 3.?-0.0064 0.0605 4.?-0.0388-0.0362 5.?-0.0059 0.0286 6.?-0.0054 0.0472?Wind?*?10%?*?5%?*?1%?2012?9?26?6?10?19?11?10?1988?1996?2007?2008?4?/?/?10?2012?9?26?7?11?%?Wind?2012-4?2002?CPI?2002?1?2006?3?2006?4?2007?6?2007?7?2008?2?2008?3?2008?11?2008?12?

6、2009?10?2009?11?2010?3?2010?4?2012?1?2012?2?12?Wind?2008?11?2009?10?4?60%?105%?93%?2012?9?26?8?5?0.6342*0.1373?0.7781*0.3146?0.9231*0.9229*?0.1283-0.0791?Wind?*?10%?*?5%?*?1%?0.9?1%?13?2013?15171921232527293133201001072010041520100722201010282011020320110512201108182011112420120301201206072012091320

7、131101?/kg?14?/?1,2001,5001,8002,1002,4002,700200902200905200908200911201002201005201008201011201102201105201108201111201202201205201208201211201302201305201308201311?2012?2013?5?2012?9?26?9?6?1.?0.6916*0.0153 2.?0.7509*-0.1683 3.?0.6203*0.1769 4.?0.6358*0.1348 5.?0.6424*0.0999 6.?0.5622*0.2341?1.?0

8、.8963*0.1120 2.?0.5841 0.7808 3.?0.8648*0.3598 4.?0.7678-0.0980 5.?0.5787 0.3579 6.?0.8115*0.3582?1.?0.9385*0.9429*2.?0.8856*0.8779*3.?0.9459*0.9536*4.?0.9069*0.9065*5.?0.9004*0.8947*6.?0.8570*0.8581*?1.?0.7713*0.7036*2.?-0.3503*-0.5669*3.?0.6861*0.5962*4.?-0.0443-0.1428 5.?0.0099-0.1243 6.?-0.4662*

9、-0.6064*?Wind?*?10%?*?5%?*?1%?1?2?3?4?5?4?10?11?6?2012?9?26?10?7?A?A?2013?CPI?2013?2013?2014?2014?2015?2012?-2013?2013?Analyst Certification?i?ii?The analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that:(i)the views expressed i

10、n this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers;and(ii)no part of the analysts compensation was,is,or will be directly or indirectly,related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.?/?(?)?(1

11、)?(2)?/?/?2012?1.?6?6?300?2.?6?300?300?20%?300?5%?20%?300?-10%?5%?300?10%?300?10%?300?-10%?10%?300?10%?48?100125?1568?22?200122?8?518048?1?26?Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.?-?This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company(“CITIC Secu

12、rities”,regulated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission.Securities Business License Number:Z20374000).This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule 15a-6(a)(2)under the U.S.Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to“major U.S.institutional investors”as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action letters thereunder.?Z20374000?1934?15a-6(a)(2)?15a-6?