第4章财务分析.pdf

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1、0第第 4 章 财务分析章 财务分析教学目标：-掌握财务报表的内容、表述-会利用财务报表进行基本的财务分析-根据历史信息预测财务报表销售百分比法-利用财务报表进行财务比率分析主要内容：-财务分析的意义、方法-财务报表-财务报表分析比率分析1一、关于财务报表一、关于财务报表-Financial Statements-Firms Financial AppraisingFinancial Statement Analysis-Financial statement information:Who uses it?Why uses?How to use?-Financial statements:B

2、alance sheetsIncome statementsCash flow Statements-Sources of financial informationAnnual reports（年报）、（年报）、Semi-annual reports（半年报）（半年报）（SEC、NYSE、证券交易所、中国证监会、证券交易所、中国证监会)Wall Street Journal /financial times证券时报、中国证券报、上海证券报证券时报、中国证券报、上海证券报2-contInternet webside:NYSE:Nasdaq:SEC:www.sec.gov.us中国证券监督管理委

3、员会：中国证券监督管理委员会：中国证券报：中国证券报：证券时报：证券时报： of Financial StatementsFinancial Statements:Provide information to the owners&creditors of a firm about the current status and past performance Provide a convenient way for owners&creditors to set performance targets&to impose restrictions of the managers of the

4、 firm Provide a convenient templates for financial planning4二、财务报表的简要回顾（二、财务报表的简要回顾（Review of Financial Statements）1.The Balance Sheet 资产负债表资产负债表An accountants snapshot of the firms accounting value as of a particular date.在某一特定日期企业帐面价値的“快照快照”。The Balance Sheet Identity is:资产负债恒等式：Equity srStockhold

5、esLiabilitieAssets+资产 负债资产 负债+股东权益股东权益资产 负债资产 负债+股东权益股东权益5-The Balance SheetSummarizes a firms assets,liabilities,and owners equity at a moment in timeAmounts measured at historical values and historical exchange ratesPrepared according to GAAP,Generally Accepted Accounting Principles GAAP modified

6、occasionally by the Financial Accounting Standards BoardExchange-listed companies must comply with Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC)rules6GPC Balance Sheet at Dec 31,2xx12xx02xx1ChangeAssetsCash&mktble secs100.0 120.0 20.0 Receivables50.0 60.0 10.0 Inventories150.0 180.0 30.0 *Current assets30

7、0.0 360.0 60.0 Pp&e400.0 490.0 90.0 Acc depreciation(100.0)(130.0)(30.0)*Net pp&e300.0 360.0 60.0 *Total Assets600.0 720.0 120.0 Liabilities&EquityAccounts payable60.0 72.0 12.0 Short-term debt90.0 184.6 94.6 *Current liabilities150.0 256.6 106.6 Long-term debt150.0 150.0 -*Total liabilities300.0 40

8、6.6 106.6 Paid-in capital200.0 200.0 -Retained earnings100.0 113.4 13.4 *Shareholders equ300.0 313.4 13.4 Liab+Shareholder600.0 720.0 120.0 7美国美国composite公司的资产负债表公司的资产负债表(单位 百万美元单位 百万美元)20X2 和和 20X1资产负债表（资产负债表（Balance Sheet）U.S.COMPOSITE CORPORATIONAssets资产资产20X1Liabilities(Debt)and Stockholders Equ

9、ity负债和股东权益负债和股东权益Current assets:流动资产现金及等价物（Cash and equivalents）$140$107应付账款（Accounts payable）270应付票据（Notes payable）280应计费用(Accrued expenses）50流动负债合计（Total current liabilities）财产、厂房和设备（Property,plant,and equipment）$1,423$1,274长期借款（Long-term debt）减去累积折旧（Less accumulated depreciation）-550-460长期负债合计(To

10、tal long-term liabilities)财产、厂房和设备净值（Net property,plant,and equipment）873814无形资产和其他（Intangible assets and other）245221股东权益(Stockholders equity:)$1,035优先股(Preferred stock)普通股（每股1美元）(Common stock($1 per value)55累积留存收益（Accumulated retained earnings）$1,742Total liabilities and stockholders equity负债和股东权益

11、总计20X220X220X1流动负债（Current Liabilities）$213$197应收账款（Accounts receivable）2945053库存（Inventories）269223205其他（Other）58$486$455流动资产合计（Total current assets）$761$707长期负债（Long-term liabilities)固定资产（Fixed assets）延迟税款Deferred taxes$117$104471458$588$562固定资产合计（Total fixed assets）$1,118$39$3932股本溢价Capital surpl

12、us347327390347减去库藏股票Less treasury stock-26-20股东权益合计（Total equity）$805$725资产总计（Total assets）$1,879$1,879$1,742The assets are listed in order by the length of time it normally would take a firm with ongoing operations to convert them into cash.资产按照持续经营企业资产正常变现所需时间长短排序。Clearly,cash is much more liquid

13、than property,plant and equipment.显然，现金比财产，厂房和设备流动性强。8-Balance Sheet Analysis 资产负债表分析资产负债表分析When analyzing a balance sheet,the financial manager should be aware of three concerns:在分析资产负债表时，财务经理应该注意下面三个方面：1.会计流动性：Acounting liquidity2负债与权益：Debt versus equity3市价和成本：Value versus cost9会计流动性会计流动性Accountin

14、g LiquidityRefers to the ease and quickness with which assets can be converted to cash.指的是资产转换为现金的方便和快捷程度。Current assets are the most liquid.流动资产流动性最强。Some fixed assets are intangible.有些固定资产为无形的。The more liquid a firms assets,the less likely the firm is to experience problems meeting short-term obli

15、gations.企业资产流动性越强，企业不能履行短期支付的可能性就越小。Liquid assets frequently have lower rates of return than fixed assets.流动性强的资产通常比固定资产回报率低。10Debt versus Equity负债与权益负债与权益Generally,when a firm borrows it gives the bondholders first claim on the firms cash flow.一般说来，企业举债时赋予债券持有者对企业现金流量量的第一索取权。Thus shareholders equit

16、y is the residual difference between assets and liabilities.因此，股东权益是资产与负债之差。11Value versus Cost市价与成本市价与成本Under GAAP,audited financial statements of firms in the U.S.carry assets at cost.根据公认会计准则（GAAP），美国企业经审计的财务报表中，资产按照成本计价。Market value is a completely different concept.市值是一个完全不同的概念。122.损益表（损益表（The

17、Income Statement）The income statement measures performance over a specific period of time.损益表衡量一个特定时期内的业绩。The accounting definition of income is利润利润的会计定义为：IncomeExpensesRevenue收入收入费用利润费用利润13The Income StatementSummarizes the profitability of a company during a time periodMajor Divisions:Revenue&cost

18、 of goods sold Gross margin General administrative and selling expenses(GS&A)Operating income Debt service Taxable income Corporate Taxes Net income14The Income StatementImportant Reminders:Retained earnings are not added to the cash balance in the balance sheet,but are added to shareholders equity

19、Accounts show historical values,not market values.The shareholders equity may be much higher or lower than the market value of the firm.The value of the firms land may have halved or doubled,but this would not be reported in the balance sheet15GPC Income Statement for Year Ending 2xx1Sales revenues2

20、00.0 Cost of goods sold(110.0)*Gross margin90.0 Gen sell,&admin exp(30.0)*Operating income60.0 Interest expense(21.0)*Taxable income39.0 Income tax(15.6)*Net income23.4 Allocation to divs(10.0)*Chg retained earn13.4 16U.S.C.C.损益表损益表单位 百万美元单位 百万美元20X2美国美国composite公司损益表（公司损益表（Income Statement）U.S.COMP

21、OSITE CORPORATION总销售（Total operating revenues）销售成本（Cost of goods sold）销售管理费用（Selling,general,and administrative expenses）折旧（Depreciation）营业利润（Operating income）其它利润（Other income）息前税前收入（Earnings before interest and taxes)利息费用（Interest expense）税前利润（Pretax income）所得税（Taxes）当期（Current）:$71递延（Deferred）:$1

22、3净利润（Net income）留存收益（Retained earnings）:$43股利（Dividends）$43The operations section of the income statement reports the firms revenues and expenses from principal operations损益表的经营部分报告的是企业主营业务带来的收入和费用。$2,262-1,655-327-90$19029$219-49$170-84$8617损益表分析（损益表分析（Income Statement Analysis）There are three thin

23、gs to keep in mind when analyzing an income statement:分析损益表的时候要记住三点：1.GAAP公认会计准则2Non Cash Items非现金项目3Time and Costs时间和成本18Generally Accepted Accounting Principles公认的会计准则公认的会计准则-GAAPThe matching principal of GAAP dictates that revenues be matched with expenses.Thus,income is reported when it is earne

24、d,even though no cash flow may have occurred公认会计准则（GAAP）配比原则配比原则要求收入和费用相配比。因此，只要收入发生，无论现金流量是否发生，收入都要在报表中得到体现。19-Non Cash Items非现金项目Depreciation is the most apparent.No firm ever writes a check for“depreciation”.折旧最为明显。没有一家企业为“折旧折旧”开过支票。Another noncash item is deferred taxes,which does not represent

25、a cash flow.另一非现金项目为递延税款，这也不以现金流量形式出现。-cont20-Time and Costs 时间与成本In the short run,certain equipment,resources,and commitments of the firm are fixed,but the firm can vary such inputs as labor and raw materials.在短期内，一定设备、资源和企业的责任义务是固定的，但是其劳动力和原材料投入是可变的。In the long run,all inputs of production(and hen

26、ce costs)are variable.在长期内，生产的所有投入（成本）都是可变的。Financial accountants do not distinguish between variable costs and fixed costs.Instead,accounting costs usually fit into a classification that distinguishes product costs from period costs.财务会计不区分可变成本和固定成本,而是将成本区分为产品成本和期间费用。-cont213.The Cash-Flow Statemen

27、tShow the cash that flowed into and from a firm in during a time period Focuses attention on a firms cash situation A firm may be profitable and short of cash Unlike the balance sheet and income statement,cash flow statements are independent of accounting methods The IRS uses accounting income to co

28、mpute tax,so accounting rules have a second order effect on cash flows through taxes22GPC Cash Flow Statement,forthe Year ending Dec 31,2xx0Net income23.4 +Depreciation30.0 -Increase in acc rec(10.0)-Increase in invent(30.0)+Increase in acc rec12.0 *Total cash from operations25.4 -Invest in new ppe(

29、90.0)*Cash flow invest activities(90.0)-Div paid(10.0)+Inc short-term debt94.6 *Cash flow from financing84.6 *Chng cash&mkt securities20.0 23GPC Balance Sheet at Dec 31,2xx12xx02xx1ChangeAssetsCash&mktble secs100.0 120.0 20.0 Receivables50.0 60.0 10.0 Inventories150.0 180.0 30.0 *Current assets300.0

30、 360.0 60.0 Pp&e400.0 490.0 90.0 Acc depreciation(100.0)(130.0)(30.0)*Net pp&e300.0 360.0 60.0 *Total Assets600.0 720.0 120.0 Liabilities&EquityAccounts payable60.0 72.0 12.0 Short-term debt90.0 184.6 94.6 *Current liabilities150.0 256.6 106.6 Long-term debt150.0 150.0 -*Total liabilities300.0 406.6

31、 106.6 Paid-in capital200.0 200.0 -Retained earnings100.0 113.4 13.4 *Shareholders equ300.0 313.4 13.4 Liab+Shareholder600.0 720.0 120.0 GPC Income Statement for Year Ending 2xx1Sales revenues200.0 Cost of goods sold(110.0)*Gross margin90.0 Gen sell,&admin exp(30.0)*Operating income60.0 Interest exp

32、ense(21.0)*Taxable income39.0 Income tax(15.6)*Net income23.4 Allocation to divs(10.0)*Chg retained earn13.4 GPC Cash Flow Statement,forthe Year ending Dec 31,2xxNet income +Depreciation 023.430.0(10.0)(30.0)+Increase in acc pay12.0 *Total cash from operations25.4 -Invest in new ppe(90.0)*Cash flow

33、invest activities(90.0)-Div paid(10.0)+Inc short-term debt94.6 *Cash flow from financing84.6 *Chng cash&mkt securities20.0 -Increase in acc rec -Increase in invent 24三、财务报表的分析方法三、财务报表的分析方法比较分析法(Comparison Analysis)比率分析法(Ratio Analysis)趋势分析法(Trend Analysis)结构分析法(Common-size Analysis)指数分析法(Index Analy

34、sis)因素分析法(Elements Analysis)25比较分析法比较分析法比较分析法比较分析法通过财务指标对比，计算出变动值的大小，是其他分析方法运用的基础，比较后的差异反映差异大小、差异方向和差异性质，有二种比较方式：绝对数比较绝对数比较：与计划（或目标、定额）相比较与前期相比较与历史最好水平相比较与国内外同行业先进水平相比较与主要竞争对手的比较百分率比较百分率比较：完成百分率和增减百分率26-cont在运用比较分析法时，应注意指标的相关性，分析的指标在性质上是同类，能够说明经济业务的内在联系。还应注意指标的可比性。具体表现在：计算口径一致：即包括的内容、范围一致时间长度一致：即包括时

35、间段、时间长度一致计算方法一致：即影响因素一致27-指在同一报表的不同项目之间，或在不同报表的有关项目之间进行对比，从而计算出各种不同经济含义的比率，据以评价企业财务状况和经营成果的一种方法-表现形式：表现形式：结构比率=个体指标/总体指标相关比率=相互联系的指标之间的对比分析时应确定不同指标之间客观上所存在的相互关系，如企业的净利润与所有者权益的对比，计算出所有者权益收益率；负债总额与资产总额的对比，计算出资产负债率。运用比率分析法来评价企业的财务状况和经营成果十分有效，在实践中广为应用。比率分析法比率分析法28-通过比较企业连续数期的会计报表，运用动态数值表现各个时期的变化，揭示其发展趋势

36、与规律的分析方法-表现形式表现形式：发展速度、增长速度、平均发展速度、平均增长速度。财务报表的分析思路-不同的分析者会有不同的分析重点，确定不同的分层次-不同的分析者会有不同的分析偏好-分析者常常通过一组财务比率进行分析-分析者常常同时应用几种分析方法 趋势分析法 趋势分析法29财务报表分析的不同侧重点财务报表分析的不同侧重点商业债权人资产流动性债券1债券持有人资本结构、资金的来源和运用、盈利能力普通股投资人盈利能力、财务状况、股利政策管理当局内部控制、是否满足资金供应者的要求债权人财务分析重点30四、财务报表分析四、财务报表分析-比率分析比率分析 财务报表分析 财务报表分析比率分析比率分析短

37、期偿债能力（short term solvency）营运能力（Activity）财务杠杆（Financial leverage）获利能力（Profitability）价值（Value）主要指标及解释主要指标及解释一览表一览表31 短期偿债能力分析 短期偿债能力分析1.流动比率（Current Ratio）2.速动比率（Quick Ratio）3.现金比率（Cash Ratio）4.现金流量与流动负债比率5.到期债务本息偿还比率各个指标含义、计算与标准各个指标含义、计算与标准32 财务杠杆比率 财务杠杆比率-长期偿债能力分析长期偿债能力分析财务杠杆财务杠杆 Financial Leverage1

38、.资产负债率（Debt Ratio）2.负债与权益比率（Debt-to-Equity Ratio）3.权益乘数（Equity multiplier）4.利息保障倍数（Times Interest Earned，or:Interest Coverage）各个指标含义、计算与标准各个指标含义、计算与标准33 营运能力分析 营运能力分析-Activity营运能力营运能力-资产周转率（资产周转率（Asset Turnover）主要指标及含义主要指标及含义-总资产周转率（Total Asset Turnover）-流动资产周转率（Current Asset Turnover）-存货周转率（Invento

39、ry Turnover）-应收账款周转率（Receivables Turnover）-固定资产转转率（Fixed Asset Turnover）34 获利能力分析 获利能力分析 Profitability 获利能力：-公司业绩的度量，反映业绩与销售、权益、资产的关系等。-企业的盈利能力定义和度量的困难性和不唯一性。获利比率（Profitability Ratio）：-销售净利率（Net Profit Margin）销售毛利率（Gross Profit Margin）-成本费用利润率（Profit to Cost&Expenses）-资产收益率（ROA，Return on Asset）-净资产收

40、益率（ROE,Return on Equity）35-cont-每股利润（EPS，Earnings Per Share）每股现金流量（Cash Flow Per Share）-每股股利（DPS，Dividends Per Share）-股利支付率（Payout Ratio）另：可持续增长率（Sustainable Growth Rate）可持续增长率=ROE 留存比率36 市场价值比率 市场价值比率 Market Value Ratios市价（Market Price）普通股权益的市场价值等于普通股每股市场价格乘以发行在外的股数。有时用“公平的市场价值”来代之。每股账面价值（Book Valu

41、e Per Share）市盈率（P/E，Price-to-Earnings Ratio）股利收益率（Dividend Yield）Dividend Yield=Dividend per share/Market price per share市价与账面价值（M/B，Market-to-Book Value）37-cont托宾Q比率（Tobins Q Ratio）在托宾Q比率的计算中，用企业负债的市场价值加上权益的市场价值之和代替M/B中的企业资产的市场价值。它是度量企业经理绩效的重要指标。托宾Q比率大于1的企业比小于1 的企业更具投资吸引力；托宾Q比率高的企业一般有着诱人的投资机会或显著的竞争

42、优势有时，用：股价/重置成本38五、财务指标间的关系五、财务指标间的关系 杜邦分析法杜邦分析法例如：ROA=销售利润率资产周转率ROE=销售利润率资产周转率权益倍数杜邦分析体系（杜邦分析体系（Du-Pont Analysis System）39Ratio ComparisonsEstablish Your Perspective Shareholder employee,Management,or Union Creditor Predator,Customer,Supplier,Competitor,Trade AssociationBenchmarks Other companies ra

43、tios The firms historical ratios Data extracted from financial marketsSources Dun&Bradstreet,Robert Morris,Commerce Departments QuarterlyFinancial Report,Trade Associations40六、财务报表和财务比率的应用六、财务报表和财务比率的应用1.Ratio ComparisonsEstablish Your Perspective Shareholder employee,Management,or Union Creditor Pr

44、edator,Customer,Supplier,Competitor,Trade AssociationBenchmarks Other companies ratios The firms historical ratios Data extracted from financial marketsSources412.财务杠杆的一个例子财务杠杆的一个例子Consider two firms that are identical except that Nodebt is financed using$1,000,000 of equity and Halfdebt is financed

45、 using$500,000 of equity and$500,000 of debtfurther assume that the EBIT of both firms is$120,000 and tax is 40%42Case:Borrow at 10%NodebtHalfdebtEBIT120,000120,000Interest050,000Taxable Income120,00070,000Tax 48,00028,000Net Income72,00042,000Equity1,000,000500,000ROE7.20%8.40%43Case:Borrow at 15%N

46、odebtHalfdebtEBIT120,000120,000Interest075,000Taxable Income120,00045,000Tax 48,00018,000Net Income72,00027,000Equity1,000,000500,000ROE7.20%5.40%44Case:Borrow at 10%:Effect of Business Cycle on ROEEconomicROAROEROEConditionsNodebtHalfdebt Bad Year1%0.6%-4.8%Normal Year12%7.2%8.4%Good Year30%18.0%30

47、.0%453.融资计划模型（融资计划模型（Financial Planning Model）销售额百分比法（percent of sales method）Step：step1:考察过去的财务数据，确定损益表和资产负债表中的项目与销售额保持一个固定的比例。step2:预测销售额（销售额增加X%）。step3:预测损益表和资产负债表中与销售额有固定比例的项目。step4:根据已知条件（如短期、长期负债的利率，税率，股利支付率）把损益表和资产负债表中的其它数据填上step5:预测额外融资需要（additional financing needed）:additional financing nee

48、ded=change in assets increase in retained earnings-increase in payables FN=Assets-RE-Payable46 (Nearest$Million)Yearxxx0 xxx1xxx2xxx3Income StatementSales200240288Cost of goods sold110132158Gross margin90108130Selling,general&admin.expenses303643EBIT607286Interest expences304564Taxes12119Net income1

49、81613Dividends554Change in shareholders equity1311947Balance SheetAssets:Cash&equivalents10121417 Receivables40485869 Inventories50607286 Property,Plant&equipment500600720864 Total Assets6007208641037Liabilities:Payables30364352 Short-term debt120221347502 Long-term debt150150150150 Total Liabilitie

50、s300407540704Shareholders equity30031332433348(Percent of Years Sales)Yearxxx1xxx2xxx3Income StatementSales100.0%100.0%100.0%Cost of goods sold55.0%55.0%55.0%Gross margin45.0%45.0%45.0%Selling,general&admin.expe15.0%15.0%15.0%EBIT30.0%30.0%30.0%Interest expences15.0%18.8%22.2%Taxes6.0%4.5%3.1%Net in