新的系统技术和新兴科学和技术预测方法：案例研究纳米.pdf

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1、A Systematic Technology Forecasting Approach for New and Emerging Science and Technology:Case Study of Nano-enhanced Biosensors1 Lu Huang1,2,Ying Guo1,2,Alan L.Porter2,3 1 School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing,100081,P.R.China 2 School of Public Policy,Georgia In

2、stitute of Technology,Atlanta,GA 30332-0345,USA 3 Search Technology,Inc.,Atlanta,GA,USA This research was undertaken at Georgia Tech drawing on support from the National Science Foundation(NSF)through the Center for Nanotechnology in Society(Arizona State University;Award No.0531194);and the Science

3、 of Science Policy Program-“Measuring and Tracking Research Knowledge Integration”(Georgia Tech;Award#0830207).Abstract-This paper addresses the topic of anticipating likely development paths for a particular“New and Emerging Science&Technology”(NES&T).Characteristics of NES&T-technological uncertai

4、nty and contextual dynamics-pose challenges for technology management and forecasting practices.Researchers,technologists,R&D managers,staff in funding agencies and policy makers“need to know”future prospects.This requires better ways to capture NES&T development patterns,within their socio-economic

5、 context,as well as likely innovation opportunities.A new technology forecasting framework for NES&Ts is presented,supported by a case study of nano-enhanced biosensors.I.INTRODUCTION “Analysis of emerging technologies”has been of interest for many years.Recently,“New and Emerging Science&Technologi

6、es”(“NES&Ts”)have drawn the attention of Future-oriented Technology Analyses(“FTA”)researchers because of their uncertainty and dynamic characteristics 1.NES&Ts challenge trusted FTA approaches,like technology roadmapping 2.As a result,its an intriguing methodological challenge to decide what data a

7、nd methods can yield effective future projections for NES&Ts.This paper develops a conceptual framework to depict and forecast NES&Ts.It is organized in four sections.Key concepts and development status are discussed in Section 1.In Section 2,we set up a systematic technology forecasting approach fr

8、amework for NES&Ts on the basis of traditional and new FTA methods.We then apply these approaches to nano-enhanced biosensors as a case study in Section 3.At last,a discussion of advantages and disadvantages of our proposed approach gained from the case study constitutes Section 4.II.CHALLENGES IN F

9、ORECASTING NEW AND EMERGING SCIENCE&TECHNOLOGIES In recent decades,FTA has come forth to enrich our understanding of technological innovation within societal contexts,under highly dynamic conditions 3(see also http:/forera.jrc.ec.europa.eu/fta_2008/intro.html).FTA may combine“aims”(normative aspects

10、)concerning particular emerging technologies and“action”dimensions,such as analytical processes that better address technological uncertainties,risks,and opportunities.FTA can serve a wide range of potential users,from corporate managers to national policy makers.The FTA initiative blends many forms

11、 of analyzing future technology and its consequences-for example,technology intelligence,forecasting,roadmapping,assessment,and foresight.Using these approaches,FTA analysts can inform technology management,as well as science and research policy 4.However,NES&Ts pose new challenges for effective FTA

12、.Recently those engaged in FTA are beginning to distinguish science and technology development situations that warrant differentiated analytical strategies.Technology forecasting for long-established developments,with dominant platforms(e.g.,silicon-based information technologies)and incrementally c

13、hanging applications are more amenable to trend analyses and growth modeling than are newly advancing scientific research areas with no applications yet(e.g.,many nano and bio technologies).Given their less predictable technical bases and complex societal contexts(development environment),it is very

14、 hard to anticipate the developmental paths that such technologies will follow.This requires new ways of technology forecasting that capture development patterns,interactions with the societal environment,and forecasting of likely future innovations for a given NES&T.We distinguish four aspects of N

15、ES&Ts that bear importantly on how to do FTA.Posing these as the driving questions:(1)How best to understand the NES&T development situation?Many existing FTA approaches focus on exploring future possibilities,neglecting to make sure that we understand key“forces and factors”of the present situation

16、.(2)How to convert knowledge of the present situation into the key technology management and forecasting issues to be addressed?From the viewpoint of the technology forecasting process,the starting point is really the end point-what information needs prompt this analysis and what questionsneed be re

17、solved?Moreover,what are the empirical indicators that can be generated by our FTA actions to help answer those questions?(3)How to adopt or adapt existing FTA methods to generate those indicators?The available data vary greatly for different NES&Ts.(4)How to present analytical results to aid manage

18、ment of the NES&T development to enhance the opportunities and decrease the risks?NES&Ts pose special challenges as a function of many factors factors that we are just now exploring,including:(a)How regular is the R&D process?Consider as one extreme the case of silicon-based microelectronics where t

19、he technology has advanced quite regularly for half a century.At the other extreme are areas where breakthrough-based research advances spur“new”science and technology(e.g.,contrast genetics before and after Polymerase Chain Reaction(PCR)enabled“instant”provision of unlimited DNA copies cheaply).(b)

20、What applications are in place?NES&T maturity ranges from high(e.g.,modification of properties of well-developed applications and markets)to low(e.g.,at the stage of fundamental research for which potential applications are barely sketched out).These special considerations add to the inherent uncert

21、ainty of all FTA endeavors.III.THE NES&T TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING FRAMEWORK How can we best pursue FTA for NES&Ts?We especially value“early stage”insights on likely development pathways as those provide the greatest leverage for wisely investing R&D resources.Such early stage findings also enable real

22、 time technology assessment i.e.,engaging researchers and stakeholders in consideration of potential undesirable effects of applications in advance.However,its really a challenge to investigate future innovation prospects from limited information available for a technology at an early stage of devel

23、opment.Here,we approach the NES&T development situation from two angles(Fig.1).One is to characterize the status of the technology itself(“Characterize the Technologys Nature&Maturation”);the other one“Technology Delivery System(“TDS”)Modeling”addresses the system.The TDS approach distinguishes fact

24、ors involved in taking a new technical capability to market from the contextual forces and factors affecting such technological innovation.There are different ways to characterize technology development stages.For example,Technology Readiness Level(“TRL”)is a measure which is used by some United Sta

25、tes government agencies and many of the worlds major companies(and agencies)to assess the maturity of evolving technologies 5.Here,we divide NES&Ts into two types according to the status of their applications:1)emerging technologies with no applications at present;and 2)emerging technologies with fe

26、w applications in the market.The first type is likely to show as research with minimal focus on applications i.e.,mainly fundamental,not applied,research.The second type includes R&D that begins to note applications that may not be well defined yet and others with applications that are well develope

27、d,but amenable to notable enhancement.How one forecasts likely developmental pathways will vary depending on the current stage and,consequently,the available information.Besides understanding a technologys maturational stage,we want to know the contextual dynamics that could affect its potential inn

28、ovation pathways.As we known,technology and society are interrelated,and both are changing rapidly.Changes in technology feed upon themselves,producing a stock of concepts that may be refined,developed,and used as the basis for further change.The development and dissemination of technology creates f

29、orces that can cause change in every aspect of society.On the other hand,changes in society produce conditions that influence technological change.We must understand these interrelationships to forecast and manage technology effectively 6.Here,we take two perspectives to model this complex TDS to he

30、lp realize the linkages along the“stream”from R&D toward commercial(or other)innovation 7.“Push-to-Pull Enterprise Analyses”are used to identify the key players and their requirements to make prospective technological innovation occur.“Contextual Forces&Factors Analyses”seek to uncover factors that

31、will drive innovation in particular ways,including any barriers that could hinder particular developments.Understanding the NES&T development situation(Stage 1 of Fig.1)provides a general sense of the key actors,interests,and potential innovations.That is a valued result in its own right.Such unders

32、tanding should also help the analysts specify the key technology management issues.TABLE I offers a reasonable set of such issues from which to pick.It must be pointed out that these issues can vary widely,depending on the technology itself,its particular contextual situation,and the particular inte

33、rests of the intended users of the FTA 8.TABLE I TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT ISSUES AND CONCERNS A.R&D portfolio selection B.R&D project initiation C.Engineering project initiation D.New product development E.New market development F.Mergers G.Acquisitions of intellectual property(“IP”)H.Exploiting ones o

34、wn intellectual assets I.Collaboration in technology development J.Identifying and assessing competing organizations K.Tracking and forecasting emerging or breakthrough technologies(opportunities&threats)L.Strategic technology planning M.Technology roadmapping Source:Tech Mining 8 Fig.1.Future-orien

35、ted technology analyses for a new and emerging science and technology We suggest further amplification of the objectives of the FTA endeavor.Stage 2 of Fig.1 orients us toward particular“innovation indicators”i.e.,empirical and expert-based intelligence concerning the status and prospects of the NES

36、&T under study.Porter and Cunningham 8 list 39 tech mining questions and more than 200 indicators based on the 13 technology management issues(TABLE I).These are just suggestive;the technology analysts need to work with the intended study users to determine what information,in what form,would be mos

37、t valuable in managing the NES&T in question.Specifying particular target innovation indicators can help align FTA data selection and analytical efforts to assure that the effort is well focused.When the indicators are spelled out,we are ready to pursue detailed profiling work i.e.,Stage 3 of Fig.1

38、“Generate Indicators.”Because of the limited life of most NES&Ts,we tend to focus on the front end of the technological innovation chain.Stage 3(Fig.1)points us toward three facets:R&D Profiling,Connecting R&D to possible Applications,and Profiling Commercialization Opportunities.There are many anal

39、ytical tools to help profile R&D,including bibliometric analyses,social network analyses,and trend analyses.We can adopt or adapt them to facilitate our study as a function of the NES&T developmental situation(and available information)and the desired innovation indicators.We have devised“S&T-Functi

40、on-Application Cross-Charting”to bridge the gap between R&D and Applications.This is vital to understand how particular technologies might link to potential applications.In our nanobiosensors case,we began with very fuzzy notions that nanotechnology(“nano”)could contribute to biosensors.After analyz

41、ing sets of R&D article abstracts and interacting with nanobiosensor researchers,we found it surprisingly helpful to systematically array the attributes of the technology(here,the features that nano offers)in terms of functional advantages,and,in turn,how those functions could translate into enhance

42、d applications.We are still exploring how best to do cross-charting.In this study and in companion analyses of nano-enhanced solar cells 9,we have found value in:(1)Subdividing the technical elements(e.g.,distinguishing among various nano materials);(2)Engaging those knowledgeable about the technolo

43、gy in specifying the set of important,and distinctive,functions(i.e.,what is important);(3)Exploring which functions pertain to particular applications(in some cases requiring partitioning functions and/or application sets);(4)Considering links between applications and commercial opportunities(users

44、,sectors,etc.).To date our efforts have been qualitative in nature,albeit drawing upon leads provided by R&D and contextual literature and patent compilations.Investigating indications of cooperation between research organizations and companies is another useful way to capture early signals of comme

45、rcialization intents.Tabulating“who”(e.g.,active industry players)and“what”(e.g.,topics being emphasized)information can constitute useful innovation indicators.Results should be well-presented with visualizations&interpretation to generate the“NES&T Intelligence Report.”Well done,this should provid

46、e valuable information for technology managers and/or policy-makers.In Stage 4,we seek to take advantage of these analyses to give insights into strategic technology planning.We want to map alternative innovation pathways.This points us to demonstrate a plausible variety of paths by which the NES&T

47、can contribute to innovations i.e.,new or improved products,services,or systems.Such multipath mapping 2 can help articulate alternative futures.Pathways can be structured in terms of prospective innovation chains(i.e.,first generation products beget second generation,and so forth).Importantly,we wa

48、nt to identify alternative commercialization paradigms and their likelihoods.Robinson and Propp 10 nicely counterpose a common platform“lab on a chip”innovation path versus highly specific,independent developmental options.Furthermore,we should assess potential NES&T impacts(desirable and not)of suc

49、h alternative innovation pathways,to inform early developmental choices.IV.CASE STUDY:NANO-ENHANCED BIOSENSORS A.Situational Understanding Nowadays,nanotechnology is playing an increasingly important role in the development of sensors.Biosensors represent an especially exciting opportunity for high-

50、impact applications benefiting from nano attributes.Reviewing recent studies,we find a steep increase in the literature on nanobiosensors 11.In this case we focus on the interesting situation of 1)novel scientifically based enhancements of 2)an emerging technology,with 3)some existing applications.“