世界经济论坛-全球首席经济学家2023展望（英）.pdf

《世界经济论坛-全球首席经济学家2023展望（英）.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《世界经济论坛-全球首席经济学家2023展望（英）.pdf（32页珍藏版）》请在淘文阁 - 分享文档赚钱的网站上搜索。

1、Chief Economists OutlookCentre for the New Economy and SocietyJanuary 2023更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a o2Chief Economists OutlookDisclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project,insight area or interaction.The findings,in

2、terpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum,nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders.2023 World E

3、conomic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a o3Chief Economists OutlookChi

4、ef Economists OutlookJanuary 2023This briefing builds on the latest policy development research as well as consultations and surveys with leading chief economists from both the public and private sectors,organized by the World Economic Forums Centre for the New Economy and Society.It aims to summari

5、ze the emerging contours of the current economic environment and identify priorities for further action by policy-makers and business leaders in response to the compounding shocks to the global economy from geo-economic and geopolitical events.The survey featured in this briefing was conducted Novem

6、ber-December 2022.更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a o4Chief Economists OutlookContentsExecutive summary _ 51.The year ahead _ 7Global recession risk looms _ 7Inflation moderates,but slowly _ 9Policymakers face trade-offs _ 112.Energy and food crises _ 14A potential peak in

7、the cost of living _ 14Progress on the energy emergency _ 173.Business in the new landscape _ 20 Expectations of rough terrain _ 20Defensive strategies _ 23References _ 25Contributors _ 28Acknowledgements _ 29Cover:Unsplash更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a o5Chief Economist

8、s OutlookThe January 2023 Chief Economists Outlook comes out amid continuing economic uncertainty and policy challenges of historic proportions.Although there are some grounds for optimism,such as easing inflationary pressures,many aspects of the outlook remain gloomy.Policy-makers continue to confr

9、ont an array of difficult trade-offs,while households and businesses will need to adapt to persistent headwinds throughout 2023.Almost two-thirds of respondents consider a global recession to be likely in 2023,including 18%who consider it extremely likely,more than twice as many as in the previous s

10、urvey in September 2022.However,views are divergent,with a third of respondents considering a global recession to be unlikely this year.Regionally,the situation in Europe and the US is now stark,with 100%of chief economists expecting weak or very weak growth for 2023 in the former and 91%in the latt

11、er.Respondents were evenly split over whether labour markets will remain as tight over the coming year given the tepid growth prospects.War and international tensions continue to shape global economic developments,and every respondent viewed it as likely(73%somewhat,27%extremely)that patterns of eco

12、nomic activity will continue to shift around the world in line with new geopolitical fissures and faultlines.Chief economists expect significant regional variation in the inflation outlook for 2023.Although no regions are slated for very high inflation,expectations of high inflation range from 57%of

13、 respondents for Europe to just 5%of respondents for China.Following a year of sharp and coordinated central bank tightening,the chief economists surveyed expect the monetary policy stance to remain constant in most of the world this year.However,a majority of respondents expect further tightening i

14、n Europe and the US(59%and 55%,respectively).At the start of 2023,concerns about the cost of living remain acute in many countries.Yet,survey respondents indicate that the cost of living crisis may be close to its peak,with a majority(68%)expecting the crisis to have become less severe by the end of

15、 2023.A similar trend is evident in the energy crisis,with almost two-thirds of respondents optimistic that conditions will have begun to improve by the end of the year.Around nine out of ten respondents expect both weak demand and high borrowing costs to exert a significant drag on business activit

16、y in 2023,with more than 60%also expecting higher input costs to be a significant factor.In response to these challenges,most chief economists expect multinational businesses to cut costs this year,with 86%of respondents saying Executive summary更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o

17、 g a o6Chief Economists Outlookthey expect businesses to cut operational expenses and 78%expecting workers to be laid off.More than three-quarters(77%)of respondents also expect businesses to optimize their supply chains.The survey also asked chief economists to highlight any sources of optimism in

18、the current global economic context.Three factors were mentioned repeatedly:the strength of household balance sheets,the peaking of inflation and the resilience of labour markets.Respondents also highlighted the prospects of a rebound in China following the shift away from zero-COVID policies,as wel

19、l as economic opportunities in the energy transition,relative resilience in some emerging markets and continued workplace flexibility for knowledge workers.更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a o7Chief Economists Outlook1 14 4Global Recession RiskShare of respondents(%)Extremel

20、y unlikelySomewhat unlikelyNeither likely nor unlikelySomewhat likelyExtremely likely3254518Global recession risk loomsThe outlook for the global economy is gloomy,according to the results of the latest survey of chief economists.Global growth prospects remain anaemic,and global recession risk high.

21、Despite some positive signals in the final months of 2022 an easing of inflationary pressures,a modest uptick in consumer sentiment and stabilization of commodity prices almost one in five respondents now consider a global recession to be extremely likely in 2023,more than twice as many as in the pr

22、evious survey in September 2022.However,32%also expect a global recession to be extremely unlikely or somewhat unlikely,more than twice as many as in September.This polarized outlook reflects a weakening of growth expectations across most but not all regions and significant continued uncertainty abo

23、ut the effectiveness and duration of tightening policy measures.The International Monetary Fund(IMF)expects around a third of the global economy to enter a recession in 2023,and it has further trimmed its forecast of global gross domestic product(GDP)for the year to 2.7%.1Figure 1.Global recession o

24、utlookHow likely is a global recession in 2023?1.The year ahead1 IMF,October 2022a.Source:Chief Economists Survey,December 2022Note:The numbers in the graphs may not add up to 100%because figures have been rounded up/down.The survey also highlighted significant regional divergence in growth expectat

25、ions(Figure 2)within a general pattern of weakened expectations relative to the last survey.The situation in Europe and the US is now stark,with 100%of chief economists expecting weak or very weak growth this year in the former and 91%expecting weak or very weak growth in the latter.This marks a sig

26、nificant deterioration in recent months:at the time of the last survey,the corresponding figures were 86%for Europe and 64%for the US.更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a o8Chief Economists OutlookFor Europe,this is likely to reflect the deepening impact of the ongoing war in

27、Ukraine as well as the effects of sharp increases in interest rates.The combination of high energy prices,elevated borrowing costs and sluggish demand has even led to instances of industrial capacity being left idle.With about half of the EU steel plants at a standstill as of November 2022 and ferti

28、lizer production capacity reduced by 70%,the European industrial sector is facing a challenging year ahead.2 The extent of the deterioration in the European outlook is also reflected in the latest round of IMF forecasts:while global growth for 2023 was trimmed by 0.2 percentage points,the forecast f

29、or the Eurozone slumped from 1.2%to 0.5%.In the US,the pace and extent of monetary tightening will exert a significant drag on economic activity this year.The survey results for the 2023 outlook in China are polarized,with almost half of respondents now expecting weak or very weak growth in China,wi

30、th the other half expecting moderate or even strong growth.Recent moves to unwind the countrys highly restrictive zero-COVID policy are expected to deliver a boost to growth.However,it remains to be seen how disruptive the policy shift will be,particularly in terms of the health impacts of COVID-19s

31、 expected rapid spread through the population.A number of additional factors are likely to weigh on Chinas growth in 2023,such as weak consumer confidence,missing the 5%growth target for 2022 and continued strain in financial markets and the real-estate sector.3The two strongest regions in 2023 acco

32、rding to the survey are the Middle East and North Africa(MENA)and South Asia.In South Asia,85%of respondents expect moderate(70%)or strong(15%)growth,a modest improvement since the September edition.Figure 2.Economic growth What is your expectation for economic growth in the following geographies in

33、 2023?Share of respondents(%)Very weakWeakModerateStrongVery StrongMiddle East and North AfricaSouth AsiaChinaEast Asia and PacificCentral AsiaSub-Saharan AfricaLatin America and the CarribbeanEurope5151037166832683253265585383814701525551598296832United States2 Mati and Rehman,August 2022 and IMF,S

34、eptember 2022.Source:Chief Economists Survey,December 2022更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a o9Chief Economists OutlookSome economies in the region,including Bangladesh and India,may benefit from global trends such as a diversification of manufacturing supply chains away fro

35、m China.4 In MENA,two-thirds of respondents(70%)expect moderate or strong growth in 2023.While this overall proportion has slightly dipped since the September edition,expectations of strong growth have increased from 12%to 15%.Energy exporters in the region continue to benefit from tight commodity m

36、arkets,but oil prices have fallen by almost 25%since June 20225,and these countries will be vulnerable to the impacts of any slowdown in global growth in 2023.In the East Asia and Pacific region,37%of chief economists expect weak growth in 2023,and 63%expect moderate or strong growth,similar to Sept

37、ember.However,that broad pattern masks a shift in expectations from strong to moderate growth since the last survey.During that period,the region has seen negative terms-of-trade developments,as well as policy tightening moves that placed increased pressure on households and businesses.6Challenging

38、global financial conditions are also weighing on the economic outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean,and for Sub-Saharan Africa.For both regions,68%of respondents expect weak growth in 2023.This is a slight improvement for Sub-Saharan African but points to a worsening of conditions for Latin Am

39、erica and the Caribbean.Inflation moderates,but slowly Inflation over the last year was stubbornly high and broad-based,but a number of modestly encouraging data releases in the final quarter of 2022 provide some room for optimism over the medium-term inflation outlook in 2023.A range of factors hav

40、e contributed to a slight easing of the rate of inflation,including rapid and synchronized monetary tightening,stabilization of supply conditions and commodity prices,and an easing of demand pressures.The latest IMF forecast is that global inflation will dip to 6.5%this year from 8.8%in 2022.73 IMF,

41、October 2022a.4 Economist Intelligence Unit,December 2022b.5 Based on World Bank Monthly Commodity prices,November 2022.6 IMF,October 2022a.7 Ibid.更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a o10Chief Economists OutlookFigure 3.InflationWhat is your expectation for inflation in the fo

42、llowing geographies in 2023?Very lowLowModerateHighVery HighShare of respondents(%)Share of respondents(%)EuropeLatin America and the CaribbeanCentral AsiaMiddle East and North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaSouth AsiaUnited StatesEast Asia and PacificChina54357551111626762658164848524472661334753374245Sou

43、rce:Chief Economists Survey,December 2022According to the latest survey,chief economists see significant regional variation in the inflation outlook for 2023.Although no regions are slated for very high inflation,expectations of high inflation range from 57%of respondents for Europe to just 5%of res

44、pondents for China.The direction of changes in responses since the last edition differs from region to region.For example,the proportion of respondents expecting high inflation in Europe has increased from 47%to 57%since September,while for the US,it has declined sharply from 43%to 24%.The expectati

45、on is for moderate inflation throughout 2023 in several regions:Sub-Saharan Africa(61%),East Asia and Pacific(58%),MENA region(53%)and South Asia(47%).By contrast,in Latin America and the Caribbean and Central Asia,relatively high shares of respondents expect high inflation(45%and 42%,respectively).

46、This is likely to reflect a combination of supply chain disruptions from the war in Ukraine as well as the continuing impact of spikes in food and fuel prices during 2022.8 China is an outlier in the other direction,with almost half of respondents(48%)expecting low inflation(up from 28%in September)

47、.As noted above,however,the short-term outlook for the Chinese economy is clouded by uncertainty surrounding the speed of the countrys removal of pandemic restrictions.If a full re-opening leads to a sharp recovery in economic activity,it would be likely to push Chinese prices significantly higher t

48、han previously seemed likely,as well as adding new impetus to global inflationary pressures.9 8 IMF,September 2022.9 Goldman Sachs,November 2022;Curran,December 2022.更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a o11Chief Economists OutlookPolicy-makers face trade-offsThe global backdro

49、p of weak growth and persistently high(albeit moderating)inflation presents policy-makers with challenges of historic proportions at the start of 2023.Chief among these will be the need to bring inflation much closer to the 2%target without choking off growth,but the challenges run deeper.Accumulate

50、d societal strains from the last years as well as climate mitigation and adaptation present pressing investment needs in numerous countries.In the immediate term,central banks are the key economic decision-makers.Following a year of sharp and coordinated tightening,the chief economists surveyed expe