(精品)03-ch12_3国际收支-1--学生.ppt

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1、Last class,we discussed:A countrys GNP is equal to the income received by its factors of production.GDP is equal to GNP less net receipts of factor income from abroad,measures the output produced within a countrys territorial borders.In a closed economy,GNP must be consumed,invested,or purchased by

2、the government.In an open economy,GNP equals the sum of consumption,investment,government purchases,and net exports of goods and services.CTBU Liu Rong1Current account(CA)balanceA countrys current account balance equals the change in its net foreign wealth.Saving and the Current AccountSI+（X-M）Priva

3、te and Government Saving(SI)(GT)+(X-M)(twin deficits)CTBU Liu Rong2Ch12-3 The Balance of Payments AccountsA countrys balance of payments accounts keep track of all the transactions of the residents of a nation with the residents of all other nations during a particular period of time.Every internati

4、onal transaction automatically enters the balance of payments twice:once as a credit(+)and once as a debit(-).CTBU Liu Rong3Any transactions:A Payment go foreigners(outflow of money)A Receipt from foreigners(inflow of money)Debit(-)Purchase of assets(capital account)=importingCredit(+)Sales of asset

5、s(capital account)=exportingCTBU Liu Rong4Balance of Payments AccountingThe Balance of Payments is the statistical record of a countrys international transactions over a certain period of time presented in the form of double-entry bookkeeping.CTBU Liu Rong5Double-Entry BookkeepingA double-entry book

6、keeping system records both side of any two-party transaction with two separate and offsetting entries:a debt entry and a credit entry.Credits record items leading to an inflow of payments i.e.a receipt of payment from foreigners.Implies greater demand for domestic currency or greater supply of fore

7、ign currency to foreign exchange market.Debits record items resulting payment outflows to foreigners implies a greater supply of domestic currency or greater demand for foreign currency on foreign exchange markets.CTBU Liu Rong6Double-Entry BookkeepingIf you buy something from a foreigner you must p

8、ay her in some way(a debit),and the foreigner must then somehow spend or store your payment(a credit).Thus the sum of all the debt entries should be equal to the sum of all the credit entries.CTBU Liu Rong7Debit and Credit EntriesDebit EntryA negative entry in the balance of payments that records a

9、transaction resulting in a payment abroad by a domestic resident.Imports of goods and servicesUnilateral transfers(gifts)made to foreignersCapital outflows(import of asset)CTBU Liu Rong8Debit and Credit EntriesCredit EntryA positive entry in the balance of payments that records a transaction resulti

10、ng in a payment to a domestic resident from abroad.Exports of goods and servicesUnilateral transfers(gifts)received from foreignersCapital inflows(export of asset)CTBU Liu Rong9Theyarecomposedofthefollowing:1.经常账户经常账户(经常项目）经常项目）currentaccount(CA)2.资本账户资本账户(资本项目）资本项目）capitalaccount(KA)3.金融账户金融账户(金融项目

11、）金融项目）financialaccount(FA)4.官方储备交易账户官方储备交易账户officialreservetransactions(ORT)5.净误差与遗漏净误差与遗漏neterrorsandomissions(ERR)5个账户归入两大类：个账户归入两大类：经常账户经常账户:CA资产账户资产账户:KA,FA,ORT,ERRBalance of Payments AccountsCTBU Liu Rong10The Current AccountThe balance of payments accounts divide exports and imports into four

12、categories:Merchandise trade Exports or imports of goods Services Payments for legal assistance,tourists expenditures,and shipping fees Income International interest and dividend payments and the earnings of domestically owned firms operating abroadUnilateral transferGovernment grants abroadPrivate

13、remittancesPrivate grants abroadCTBU Liu Rong11The Current AccountThe imports are debited and the exports are credited.If the debits exceed the credits,then a country is running a trade deficit.CTBU Liu Rong12The Capital AccountMeasures transfers of wealth between countriesMostly results from nonmar

14、ket activities.Eg debt forgiveness,immigrants bringing in wealth，migrants transfers(as they leave the country).还包括非生产和非金融性的资产如专利，版权，还包括非生产和非金融性的资产如专利，版权，商标权的收买或放弃等。商标权的收买或放弃等。CTBU Liu Rong13The Financial Account(non-official Reserves Account part)It measures the difference between sales of assets to

15、 foreigners and purchases of assets located abroad.Financialinflow(capitalinflow):An export of assets.Financialoutflow(capitaloutflow):An import of assets.The capital account is composed of Foreign Direct Investment(FDI),portfolio investments and other investments.Tradecredits贸易信贷贸易信贷;Loans贷款贷款Curre

16、ncyanddeposits货币和存款货币和存款;CTBU Liu Rong14Capital Inflows:two forms An increase in foreign owned assets in a nation Eg.When a foreigner buys a nations stock A reduction in a nations assets abroad Eg A nations resident sells a foreign stockCTBU Liu Rong15Capital Outflows:two forms An reduction in forei

17、gn owned assets in a nation Eg.When a foreigner sells a nations stock An increase in a nations assets abroad Eg A nations resident buys a foreign stockCTBU Liu Rong16The Financial AccountThe Purchase of a foreign financial asset by a domestic private resident:An export of assetsdebit entry.The Purch

18、ase of a domestic financial asset by a foreign private resident:An import of assets credit entry.CTBU Liu Rong17Data associated with a given transaction may come from different sources that differ in coverage,accuracy,and timing.This makes the balance of payments accounts seldom balance in practice.

19、Account keepers force the two sides to balance by adding to the accounts a statistical discrepancy.It is very difficult to allocate this discrepancy among the current,capital,and financial accounts.The Statistical DiscrepancyCTBU Liu Rong18国际收支平衡表的技术性调整国际收支平衡表的技术性调整错误和遗漏错误和遗漏(ERR)基于会计上的需要，一般就人为设置一个项

20、目，基于会计上的需要，一般就人为设置一个项目，以抵消上述统计偏差（以抵消上述统计偏差（Statisticaldiscrepancy），），即即“净错误和遗漏净错误和遗漏”（NetErrorsandOmissions）科目。科目。（1）资料统计不完整。）资料统计不完整。（2）统计数字重复计算和遗漏）统计数字重复计算和遗漏（3）有的是估算出来的。）有的是估算出来的。如果借方总额大于贷方总额，净错误和遗漏这一如果借方总额大于贷方总额，净错误和遗漏这一项则放在贷方；反之，如果贷方总额大于借方总项则放在贷方；反之，如果贷方总额大于借方总额，净错误和遗漏这一项则放在借方。额，净错误和遗漏这一项则放在借方。

21、CTBU Liu Rong19CentralbankThe institution responsible for managing the supply of moneyOfficialinternationalreservesForeign assets held by central banks as a cushion against national economic misfortuneOfficialforeignexchangeinterventionCentral banks often buy or sell international reserves in privat

22、e asset markets to affect macroeconomic conditions in their economies.Official Reserve TransactionsCTBU Liu Rong20一些注意的事项一些注意的事项反映在国际收支平衡表上的官方储备资产是反映在国际收支平衡表上的官方储备资产是增减额。增减额。当经常项目和资本项目出现赤字时，用官方当经常项目和资本项目出现赤字时，用官方储备账户的贷方净余额来冲减。储备账户的贷方净余额来冲减。人们人为的把官方储备的增加用人们人为的把官方储备的增加用“”，表，表示本国在外国资产的增加。示本国在外国资产的增加。把官

23、方储备的减少用把官方储备的减少用“+”，表示本国在外国，表示本国在外国资产的减少，资产的减少，inflowCTBU Liu Rong21Officialsettlementsbalance(balanceofpayments)The book-keeping offset to the balance of official reserve transactionsIt is the sum of the current account balance,the capital account balance,the nonreserve portion of the financial acc

24、ount balance,and the statistical discrepancy.Example:The U.S.balance of payments in 2000 was-$35.6 billion,that is,the balance of official reserve transactions with its sign reversed.A country with a negative balance of payments may signal that it is running down its international reserve assets or

25、incurring debts to foreign monetary authorities.CTBU Liu Rong22The Official Reserves AccountOfficial reserves assets include gold,foreign currencies,SDRs,reserve positions in the IMF.官方储备资产官方储备资产officialreserveassets：记录本：记录本国央行所拥有的国外金融资产的增加或减少国央行所拥有的国外金融资产的增加或减少官方储备负债官方储备负债officialreserveliabilities

26、：记：记录外国央行所拥有的本国金融资产的增加或录外国央行所拥有的本国金融资产的增加或减少减少CTBU Liu Rong23人民币汇率：各退一步？人民币汇率：各退一步？2006年年04月月07日日中国显然低估了人民币汇率，这就意味著美国消中国显然低估了人民币汇率，这就意味著美国消费者能按照人为压低的价格购买商品，成为赢家。费者能按照人为压低的价格购买商品，成为赢家。为了维护这为了维护这项制度项制度,中国人民银行必须大量买入中国人民银行必须大量买入美元，中国的外汇储备已经接近美元，中国的外汇储备已经接近1万亿美元了。万亿美元了。这笔巨款在国内毫无用处这笔巨款在国内毫无用处,于是中国央行就转过头于是

27、中国央行就转过头来把它们又借给了美国人来把它们又借给了美国人,大量购买美国国债、公大量购买美国国债、公司债和住房按揭司债和住房按揭，把国债收益率和按揭利率压低，把国债收益率和按揭利率压低到应有水平之下。美国的房主和纳税到应有水平之下。美国的房主和纳税人再次成为人再次成为赢家。赢家。官方储备是央行拥有的各类官方或私人部门的国官方储备是央行拥有的各类官方或私人部门的国外金融资产，包括外国国外金融资产，包括外国国债、公司债等。债、公司债等。财经正前方财经正前方-美国国债迷局美国国债迷局.wmvCTBU Liu Rong24CTBU Liu Rong25Example 1:Chinese firm e

28、xports wheat paid for by transfer to domesticdomestic bank account:+entry in“Exports”of CurrentAccountCurrentAccount-entry in Non-Official Portfolio Investment in CapitalAccountCapitalAccount.CTBU Liu Rong26Example 2:US Fund buys RMB 100 million Haier sharesshares using Chinese bank deposits.In this

29、 case there are no goods/services flows so there is no entry in the current accountTwo capital account transactions:+entry in Portfolio Investment-entry in Portfolio InvestmentCTBU Liu Rong27A U.S.citizen pays$200 for dinner at a French restaurant in France by charging his Visa credit card.That is,t

30、he U.S.trades assets for services.This transaction creates the following two offsetting entries in the U.S.balance of payments:Purchases(imports)typewriter:enters the U.S.CA with a negative sign(-$200).Sells(exports)asset:a$200 credit in the U.S.financial account.ExamplesCTBU Liu Rong28A U.S.citizen

31、 buys a$95 newly issued share of stock in the United Kingdom oil giant British Petroleum(BP)by using a check drawn on his stockbroker money market account.BP deposits the$95 in its own U.S.bank account at Second Bank of Chicago.That is,the U.S.trades assets for assets.This transaction creates the fo

32、llowing two offsetting entries in the U.S.balance of payments:Purchases(imports)share:enters the U.S.financial account with a negative sign(-$95).Sells(exports)assets:a$95 credit in the U.S.financial account.examplesCTBU Liu Rong29A U.S.bank forgives$5000 in debt owed to it by the government of Bygo

33、nia.This transaction creates the following two offsetting entries in the U.S.balance of payments:It enters the U.S.capital account with a negative sign(-$5000).It shows up as a$5000 credit in the U.S.financial account.examplesCTBU Liu Rong30The Balance of Payments IdentityCA+FA+KA=0whereCA=balance o

34、n current accountFA=balance on financial accountKA=balance on capital accountCTBU Liu Rong31案例案例1-2007年国际收支平衡表年国际收支平衡表2007年中国国际收支平衡表年中国国际收支平衡表(BOP)资料来源：资料来源：参看参看BOP2007china.xls问题：问题：1.为什么国际收支平衡表中的储备资产是负值？为什么国际收支平衡表中的储备资产是负值？2.在国际收支平衡表的经常账户、资本账户、金融账在国际收支平衡表的经常账户、资本账户、金融账户中，哪个账户反映了国际资本流动的数量和方向户中，哪个账户

35、反映了国际资本流动的数量和方向？3.流入中国的流入中国的FDI是中国居民的资产还是负债？是中国居民的资产还是负债？应记应记录在录在BOP的借方还是贷方？的借方还是贷方？CTBU Liu Rong32资产与负债资产与负债资产：持有财富的一种形式，如现钞、银行存款、股资产：持有财富的一种形式，如现钞、银行存款、股票、票、国债或是工厂。国债或是工厂。BOP中的资产与负债：中的资产与负债：会计意义上的资产：某种投资形式构成的债权会计意义上的资产：某种投资形式构成的债权BOP中资产增加：对外投资的增加，资金流向国外。中资产增加：对外投资的增加，资金流向国外。BOP中资产减少：对外投资的减少，资金回流国内。中资产减少：对外投资的减少，资金回流国内。会计意义上的负债：某种投资形式构成的债务会计意义上的负债：某种投资形式构成的债务BOP中负债增加：外国对本国的投资的增加，资金流中负债增加：外国对本国的投资的增加，资金流向国内。向国内。BOP中负债减少：外国对本国的投资的减少，资金撤中负债减少：外国对本国的投资的减少，资金撤出本国。出本国。资产与负债资产与负债CTBU Liu Rong33CTBU Liu Rong34CTBU Liu Rong35CTBU Liu Rong36