管理学原理robbins_PPT06.ppt
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1、8 8thth edition editionSteven P.RobbinsSteven P.RobbinsMary CoulterMary CoulterPowerPoint Presentation by Charlie CookPowerPoint Presentation by Charlie CookCopyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.All rights reserved.L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E Follow
2、this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.The Decision-Making ProcessDefine decision and decision-making process.Describe the eight steps in the decision-making process.The Manager as Decision MakerDiscuss the assumptions of rational decision making.Describe the concepts of bounded ra
3、tionality,satisficing,and escalation of commitment.Explain what intuition is and how it affects decision making.Contrast programmed and nonprogrammed decisions.2Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (contd)Follow this Learning Outline as you read and stud
4、y this chapter.The Manager as Decision Maker(contd)Contrast the three decision-making conditions.Explain maximax,maximin,and minimax decision choice approaches.Describe the four decision making styles.Discuss the twelve decision-making biases managers may exhibit.Describe how manager can deal with t
5、he negative effects of decision errors and biases.Explain the managerial decision-making model.3Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (contd)Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.Decision Making for Todays WorldExplain how manage
6、rs can make effective decisions in todays world.List six characteristics of an effective decision-making process.Describe the five habits of highly reliable organizations.4Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Decision MakingDecisionMaking a choice from two or more alternatives.The De
7、cision-Making ProcessIdentifying a problem and decision criteria and allocating weights to the criteria.Developing,analyzing,and selecting an alternative that can resolve the problem.Implementing the selected alternative.Evaluating the decisions effectiveness.5Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All ri
8、ghts reserved.Exhibit 6.1Exhibit 6.1The Decision-Making Process6Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Step 1:Identifying the ProblemProblemA discrepancy between an existing and desired state of affairs.Characteristics of ProblemsA problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware
9、 of it.There is pressure to solve the problem.The manager must have the authority,information,or resources needed to solve the problem.7Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Step 2:Identifying Decision CriteriaDecision criteria are factors that are important(relevant)to resolving the
10、problem.Costs that will be incurred(investments required)Risks likely to be encountered(chance of failure)Outcomes that are desired(growth of the firm)Step 3:Allocating Weights to the CriteriaDecision criteria are not of equal importance:Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the correc
11、t priority order of their importance in the decision making process.8Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Exhibit 6.2Exhibit 6.2Criteria and Weights for Franchise DecisionCriterion WeightStart-up costs 10Franchisor support 8Financial qualifications 6Open geographical locations 4Franc
12、hisor history 39Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Step 4:Developing AlternativesIdentifying viable alternativesAlternatives are listed(without evaluation)that can resolve the problem.Step 5:Analyzing AlternativesAppraising each alternatives strengths and weaknessesAn alternatives
13、appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.10Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Step 6:Selecting an AlternativeChoosing the best alternativeThe alternative with the highest total weight is chosen.Step 7:Implementing the DecisionPutting the c
14、hosen alternative into action.Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment from those who will carry out the decision.11Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Exhibit 6.3Exhibit 6.3Assessed Values of Franchise Opportunities Using Decision CriteriaStart-Up Franchise Financial Open F
15、ranchisorCosts Support Qualifications Locations HistoryFranchiseCurves For Women 10 3 10 8 5Quiznos Sandwiches 8 7 7 8 7Jani-King 8 5 7 10 10Jackson-Hewitt Tax Service 8 7 7 8 7GNC Vitamins andNutritional Supplements 7 8 7 8 7Radio Shack 8 3 6 10 8Chem-Dry Carpet Cleaning 10 7 8 6 7McDonalds 4 10 4
16、8 1012Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Exhibit 6.4Exhibit 6.4Evaluation of Franchise Alternatives Against Weighted CriteriaStart-Up Franchise Financial Open FranchisorCosts Support Qualifications Locations History TotalFranchiseCurves For Women100 24 60 32 15 231Quiznos Sandwiche
17、s80 56 42 32 21 231Jani-King80 40 42 40 30 232Jackson-Hewitt Tax Service80 56 42 32 21 231GNC Vitamins andNutritional Supplements 70 64 42 32 21 229Radio Shack 80 24 36 40 24 204Chem-Dry Carpet 100 56 48 24 21 249McDonalds 40 80 24 32 30 20613Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Step
18、 8:Evaluating the Decisions EffectivenessThe soundness of the decision is judged by its outcomes.How effectively was the problem resolved by outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives?If the problem was not resolved,what went wrong?14Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Making D
19、ecisionsRationalityManagers make consistent,value-maximizing choices with specified constraints.Assumptions are that decision makers:vAre perfectly rational,fully objective,and logical.vHave carefully defined the problem and identified all viable alternatives.vHave a clear and specific goalvWill sel
20、ect the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organizations interests rather than in their personal interests.15Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Exhibit 6.6Exhibit 6.6Assumptions of Rationality16Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Making Decisions(contd)Boun
21、ded RationalityManagers make decisions rationally,but are limited(bounded)by their ability to process information.Assumptions are that decision makers:vWill not seek out or have knowledge of all alternativesvWill satisficechoose the first alternative encountered that satisfactorily solves the proble
22、mrather than maximize the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best.17Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Influences on Decision MakingEscalation of CommitmentIncreasing or continuing a commitment to previous decision despite mounting evidence t
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