Energy2005-Technological prospects and CO2 emission trading analyses in the iron and steel industry-有欧洲1990和2000年钢铁排放-资源文档资料整理者.pdf

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1、Technological prospects and CO2emission trading analysesin the iron and steel industry:A global model*Ignacio Hidalgo*,Laszlo Szabo,Juan Carlos Ciscar,Antonio SoriaInstitute for Prospective Technological Studies(IPTS),Directorate General Joint Research Centre,European Commission,EXPO Building,Isla d

2、e la Cartuja,E-41092 Seville,SpainReceived 23 December 2003AbstractThis article presents the Iron and Steel Industry Model(ISIM).This is a world simulation model able to analyzethe evolution of the industry from 1997 to 2030,focusing on steel production,demand,trade,energy consumption,CO2emissions,t

3、echnology dynamics,and retrofitting options.In the context of the Kyoto Protocol on climatechange,the potential impacts of a CO2emission market(e.g.the gains in terms of compliance costs,the countrytrading position,the evolution of the technology and the energy mixes)are also addressed.In particular

4、,threeemission trading scenarios are considered:an EU15 market,an enlarged EU market,and an Annex B market.q 2004 Elsevier Ltd.All rights reserved.1.IntroductionIn the last few years the discussion on mitigating anthropogenic greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions hasgradually emerged as a key issue in the in

5、ternational agenda.The 1997 Kyoto Protocol(KP)to theUnited Nations Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)sets,for the first time,binding emissionreduction targets for developed countries.GHG emissions of the so-called Annex B countries are to bereduced by 5.2%over the 20082012 period,with respect to t

6、he 1990 emission levels.This protocol canbe interpreted as a first step in a series of international agreements with the aim of stabilizing GHGconcentration in the atmosphere,the long-term objective of the UNFCCC 21.0360-5442/$-see front matter q 2004 Elsevier Ltd.All rights reserved.doi:10.1016/j.e

7、nergy.2004.05.022Energy 30(2005) ideas expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent views of the EuropeanCommission.*Corresponding author.Tel.:C34-954-488-495;fax:C34-954-488-279.E-mail address:ignacio.hidalgocec.eu.int(I.Hidalgo).The KP will enter into force aft

8、er the ratification of 55 parties to the UNFCCC accounting for at least55%of the 1990 CO2emissions of the countries listed in the Annex B of the protocol.Currently100 parties have ratified the protocol,the EU,the candidate countries to the EU,Canada andJapan among them.The KP would enter into force

9、with the ratification of the Russian Federation,evenafter the withdrawal of the USA from the protocol in 2001.Theadoptionoftheprotocol,andparticularlytheimplementationofitsso-calledflexiblemechanisms,1raisesseveralquestionsandconcerns,atregionalandgloballevel,aboutitseffectsontheenergy-intensiveindu

10、strial sectors,such as their future technological evolution and the possible leakage to the countrieswithout GHG mitigation commitments.For instance,in the EU these sectors will have to face newstringent environmental regulations and,in particular,the CO2emission trading market2(expected to belaunch

11、ed in 2005),and the Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control(IPPC)Directive.3The iron and steel industry is the largest energy consuming industry in the world,as well as one of themost important sources of CO2emissions and other pollutants.According to the World Energy Council33 energy consumptio

12、n of the iron and steel sector in 1990 accounted for 12%of the world energyconsumption.The related CO2emissions were 1425 MtCO2.World steel production increased from200 Mt in 1950 to 847 Mt in 2001,4and is expected to grow further in the future,primarily due to theincreasing demand in developing cou

13、ntries.While production in OECD countries has been around350 Mt since the eighties,5production in the developing world(mainly China,India and SouthAmerica),is now growing at almost 7%annually.Analysts commonly agree that such growth trends willcontinueover thenext decades.Inparticular,theWorld Energ

14、yCouncil33foreseesa worldproductionlevel of 1300 Mt by 2020,assuming a business as usual(BAU)scenario.The same foresight exercisepredicts that by 2020 world energy consumption in the steel sector would reach 600 Mtoe,andconsequently,CO2emissions would increase up to 1700 MtCO2.With regard to the EU(

15、see Table 1)the iron and steel industries accounted for 21%of final energyconsumptionand 27%of emissionsin thetotalmanufacturingsector in1990.Almostthe same sharesareobserved in the year 2000(19 and 28%,respectively).Production of crude steel grew from 148 to160 Mt in that period.Variousarticlesinth

16、eliteraturehavestudiedtheironandsteelsector.Amongothers,oneshouldremarkthereportspreparedfortheIEA6byDeBeeretal.11,whichassesstheemissionsfromtheironandsteelindustry and the possible abatement measures,and the emissions baseline study by Bode et al.2.Van Vuuren et al.51 present a global system dynam

17、ics model to simulate long-term trends in theproduction and consumption of metals.Labson 32 carries out an econometric analysis of the globaliron and steel market.Steel trade is also studied by the US Department of Commerce in Ref.28.Crompton79forecasts thesteel consumptionforUS,JapanandSouth-East A

18、sia.Gielenet al.1820and De 12,also follow a regional approach,focusing on the Japanese,Dutch and Indian cases.1Emission trading,joint implementation and clean development mechanism.2Directive 2003/87/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 October 2003 establishing a scheme forgreenho

19、use gas emission allowance trading within the Community and amending Council Directive 96/61/EC:http:/europa.eu.int/eur-lex/pri/en/oj/dat/2003/l_275/l_27520031025en00320046.pdf3Council Directive 96/61/EC of 24 September 1996.4International Iron and Steel Institute(IISI):http:/www.worldsteel.org5EURO

20、STAT,New Cronos Database:http:/europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat6IEA GHG R&D Programme:http:/www.ieagreen.org.ukI.Hidalgo et al./Energy 30(2005)583610584Ozawa et al.42 analyze the energy use and the CO2emissions from the steel industry in Mexico.Asimilar study is made for China by Price et al.43,while the

21、 energy and environmental performance ofthe US steel sector is studied by Worrell et al.56.Macedo Costa et al.34 carry out an analysis of theenergy and material flows in the steel production systems.Several national or regional studies on energy use and carbon emissions,not only focused on the steel

22、industry case,have been carried out by the Environmental Energy Technologies Division of theLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory713,36,44,45,49,55.Finally,Quirion 46 provides anassessment of the impacts on the steel industry caused by the implementation of the EC directive onemission trading.Other

23、studies assessing the impact of greenhouse emission abatement strategies onindustrial sectors from a broader perspective can be found in Bo hringer et al.3,and Capros et al.4.This article presents the Iron and Steel Industry Model(ISIM),which is fully documented in Ref.24.ISIM has been conceived wit

24、h the aim of integrating it into the Prospective Outlook for the Long-term Energy System(POLES)model,a world simulation model for the energy sector.The POLES modelworks in a year-by-year recursive simulation and partial equilibrium framework,with endogenousinternational energy prices and lagged adju

25、stments of supply and demand by world region.Developedunder EU research programs at the Institute of Energy Policy and Economics(IEPE)and the Institute forProspective Technological Studies(IPTS),the model is fully operational since 1997.It has been used forpolicy analyses by EU-DGs Research,Environm

26、ent and Transport and Energy,and by the FrenchMinistry of Environment.The model enables to produce8:(1)detailed long-term(2030)world energyoutlooks with demand,supply and price projections by main region,(2)CO2emission marginalTable 1Energy use and CO2emissions in the EU-15 industrySector19902000Fin

27、al energy use(Mtoe)CO2emissions(MtCO2)Final energy use(Mtoe)CO2emissions(MtCO2)Total industry266.01573.44271.68629.36Iron and steel56.04153.4551.49179.04Non-ferrous metals10.8313.5410.4415.85Chemicals50.5975.2145.3397.62Glass,pottery andbuilding materials35.6589.2834.8899.50Ore extraction2.994.842.6

28、85.81Food,drink and tobacco22.0246.2025.0245.80Textile,leather andclothing8.7513.858.4516.56Paper and printing17.9967.3831.1228.91Engineering and othermetals27.3533.7224.5142.73Other industries20.6468.3834.9645.05Source:EUROSTAT(1990 figures do not include the German Democratic Republic).7EETD,Lawre

29、nce Berkeley National Laboratory:http:/eetd.lbl.gov8An illustration of the POLES results can be found at:http:/energy.jrc.es/Pages/EnergyOutlooks.htmI.Hidalgo et al./Energy 30(2005)583610585abatement cost(MAC)curves by region,and emission trading systems analyses,under different marketconfigurations

30、 and trading rules,and(3)technology improvement scenarios,with exogenous orendogenous technological change,and analyses of the value of technological progress in the context ofCO2abatement policies.The unquestionable importance of the steel industry in terms of energy consumption and CO2emissions,th

31、e prominent effect that the Kyoto Protocol could have on the sector,and the need of areliable tool to support policymaking,have motivated the development of the ISIM model,which is,tothe best of our knowledge,the first recursive world simulation model addressing these issues.The ISIM model projects

32、the evolution of the steel sector in the period 19972030,paying particularattention to steel production,demand and trade,energy consumption,CO2emissions,steel technologydynamics,and retrofitting options.CO2emission reduction costs have been derived by simulating theintroduction of a carbon value in

33、the sector.The article has three sections in addition to this introduction.Section 2 briefly describes the model.The results are presented in Section 3,which contains two parts.Section 3.1shows themodel projectionsfor production,consumption,trade,technology evolution and CO2emissions in the business

34、 as usual(BAU)scenario.Three emission tradingscenarios are then compared with the BAU:an EU15 market,anenlarged EU market,and an Annex B market.The paper ends with the summary of the main conclusionsderived from the study.2.Overview of the modelISIMhasbeen developedusingadynamicsimulation approach.9

35、Theworldis dividedinto51 regions,which can be grouped into 11 larger regions(four of them covering the Annex B countries).The modeloperates with a set of inter-connected modules:steel demand and supply,international trade,capacityplanning,energy demand and GHG emissions.In each module behavioural eq

36、uations calculateendogenous variables considering techno-economic constraints(e.g.production costs),time lags andtrends.GDP and population are the main exogenous variables.Energy prices are calculated by the POLESmodel.10Techno-economic characteristics of the industry for the 19801997 period come fr

37、om thehistorical databases,and for 19972030 are made endogenous in the model through recursivesimulation.These variables include production costs and quantities,steel consumption and trade,production capacities,retrofitting and investment costs,energy consumption and emissions,by type oftechnology a

38、nd region.The ISIM database contains historical data about the variables mentioned above,as well as about emission factors,efficiencies,substitution factors and other parameters.The data sources are diverse,being the main the European Commission 1416,22,23,World SteelDynamics 5254,11the Internationa

39、l Iron and Steel Institute 27,the OECD 3841,the IEA 25,26,US Department of Energy 35,50,ENERDATA S.A.,12INEDIS,13and the POLES model database.9The Vensim 5.0 software has been used.The size of the model is around 350 equations and variables per region.10All monetary values are expressed in 1999 V.11

40、World Steel Dynamics:http:/.12Enerdata S.A.:http:/www.enerdata.fr/enerdata_UK/indexa.html.13International Network for Energy Demand Analysis in the Industrial Sector:http:/ et al./Energy 30(2005)583610586Seven distinct technologies or production routes have been identified and included in the techno

41、logyportfolio:open hearth furnace(OPH).conventional blast furnace/basic oxygen furnace(BOF).advanced blast furnace/basic oxygen furnace(BOFA).conventional electric arc furnace(EAF).advanced electric arc furnace(EAFA)smelting reduction process(SRP).direct reduction process(DRP).The technologies are c

42、haracterized by investment and other cost categories,energy,material andlabour consumption,and available retrofitting options.The technical and environmental characteristicsof the technologies are based on the Best Available Techniques Reference Document on the Productionof Iron and Steel,by the EIP

43、PCB1414,and on other existing literature 1,510,1719,29,34,36,4245,4749,55,56.The production routes labelled as advanced incorporate the best available techniques(BAT)in comparison with the routes marked as conventional.The OPH technology is obsolete but stilllargely used in the former Soviet Union,C

44、hina and India.Two new alternative routes for steel making,SRP and DRP,have been considered in ISIM due to their growing potential.OPH,BOF,BOFA and SRPare integrated steelworks(ISW,also known as primary routes)that include all the stages for steelmaking,namely ore processing,coke making,iron making,

45、steel making and rolling,and finishing.EAF,EAFA and DRP are the electric arc furnace-based routes(hereinafter referred to as secondary routes ormini-mills,MMS).EAF and EAFA are scrap-based routes that skip the stages before steel making anduse scrap.DRP has in addition an iron ore reduction unit,in

46、order to produce the raw material to be usedin an EAF.Iron,scrap,and coal(for coke making)have been considered as raw materials,in order to simplify theanalysis.The prices for iron and scrap have been estimated and are exogenous inputs to the ISIM model.As already noted,the coal and other fuel price

47、s come from POLES.Seven types offuels are considered:natural gas,heavy fuel oil,steam coal and other solid fuels from coal,wood and waste fuels,electricity,recovered heat and coke.The economic characteristics(investment,operation and maintenance costs)ofthe routes have been obtained mainly from Worl

48、d Steel Dynamics 52.The model considers a homogeneous steel product.15Steel consumption is calculated from therelationship between the steel intensity(steel consumption per unit of GDP)and GDP per capita.Empirical research has found that intensity can be often described as a function of the national

49、 per capitaincome.This function varies among countries and materials,but usually follows an inverse U-shapedcurve(also called intensity of use hypothesis 51).The global market is shared out among the producing countries according to their shares in the worldproduction,which depend on their productio

50、n costs and capacities.The idea is to produce steel in thecheapest possible way while fulfilling the capacity restrictions.14European Integrated Pollution Prevention Control Bureau placed at IPTS(EC-JRC),Seville.15The lack of data for a range of steel products partly justifies this assumption.Furthe