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1、Trade and Sustainable Energy SeriesIssue Paper No.5The Inclusion of Aviation in the EU Emissions Trading SystemAn Economic and Environmental AssessmentBy Jasper Faber Linda BrinkeICTSD Global Platform on Climate Change,Trade and Sustainable EnergyICTSD Programme on Trade and EnvironmentSeptember 201

2、1|l ICTSD Programme on Trade and EnvironmentBy Jasper Faber Linda BrinkeICTSD Global Platform on Climate Change,Trade and Sustainable EnergyThe Inclusion of Aviation in the EU Emissions Trading SystemAn Economic and Environmental AssessmentIssue Paper No.5September 2011iiJ.Faber,L.Brinke-The Inclusi

3、on of Aviation in the EU Emissions Trading SystemPublished by International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development(ICTSD)International Environment House 27 Chemin de Balexert,1219 Geneva,SwitzerlandTel:+41 22 917 8492 Fax:+41 22 917 8093E-mail:ictsdictsd.org Internet:www.ictsd.orgPublisher and

4、 Director:Ricardo Melndez-Ortiz Programmes Director:Christophe Bellmann Programme Manager:Ingrid Jegou Programme Officer:Joachim MonkelbaanAcknowledgmentsThe concept of this paper was originated in ICTSDs research and policy dialogues under the Global Platform.Terms of reference,direction and guidan

5、ce have been the responsibility of Ingrid Jegou,Samantha Derksen and Joachim Monkelbaan of ICTSD.ICTSD is grateful to participants at various meetings where early versions of this paper have been presented and discussed.In particular,ICTSD wishes to acknowledge the government officials present at a

6、workshop on trade and climate change organized by the department of Trade and Industry of South Africa in Pretoria in May 2011,and policy makers,climate negotiators,civil society and business representatives who participated in the ICTSD Roundtable on Trade and Climate Change in Bonn on the 10 June

7、2011.We are thankful for their input,questions and comments.The authors are grateful to various experts for their valuable comments and inputs,notably Peter Morrell(Cranfield University),David Gillen(University of British Columbia)and Annella Anger(University of Cambridge).This paper was produced un

8、der the ICTSD Programme on Trade and Environment and the ICTSD Global Platform on Climate Change,Trade and Sustainable Energy.ICTSD is grateful for the support of ICTSDs core and thematic donors including the UK Department for International Development(DFID),the Swedish International Development Coo

9、peration Agency(SIDA);the Netherlands Directorate-General of Development Cooperation(DGIS);the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark,Danida;the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland;the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Norway;Australias AusAID;the Inter American Development Bank(IADB);and Oxfam Nov

10、ib.For more information about ICTSDs work on transport,trade and climate change,and also on our Programme on Competitiveness and Development,visit our website:www.ictsd.orgICTSD welcomes feedback on this document.These can be forwarded to Joachim Monkelbaan,jmonkelbaanictsd.chCitation:Faber,Jasper;a

11、nd Brinke,Linda;(2011);The Inclusion of Aviation in the EU Emissions Trading System:An Economic and Environmental Assessment;ICTSD Programme on Trade and Environment;Trade and Sustainable Energy Series;Issue Paper No.5;International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development,Geneva,Switzerland,www

12、.ictsd.org.Copyright ICTSD,2011.Readers are encouraged to quote this material for educational and nonprofit purposes,provided the source is acknowledged.This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Non-commercial-No-Derivative Works 3.0 License.To view a copy of this license,visit ht

13、tp:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/or send a letter to Creative Commons,171 Second Street,Suite 300,San Francisco,California,94105,USA.The views expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views ICTSD or its funding institutions.ISSN 1992-1675

14、iiiICTSD Programme on Trade and EnvironmentTABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ivLIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES vFOREWORDEXECUTIVE SUMMARY vi1.INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background 14 1.2 Policy Context 14 1.3 Outline of the Paper2.THE INCLUSION OF AVIATION IN THE EU ETS:DESIGN ELEMENTS 2 2.1 T

15、he EU Emissions Trading System 17 2.2 Design Elements of the Inclusion of Aviation 93.ECONOMICS AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS 4 3.1 Introduction to the CO2 Price Mechanism 20 3.2 Economic Impacts 21 3.3 Reduction of Emissions in the Aviation Sector and Other Sectors 94.EFFECTS ON COMPETITION AND CARBON

16、LEAKAGE 5 4.1 Introduction 274.2TheEffectonCompetition27 4.3 Carbon Leakage 95.IMPACTS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 14 5.1 Trade 33 5.2 Tourism 34 5.3 Use of Revenues from ETS 35 5.4 CDM Projects 286.CONCLUSIONS 33ENDNOTES 36REFERENCES 39ivJ.Faber,L.Brinke-The Inclusion of Aviation in the EU Emissions Tr

17、ading SystemLIST ABBrEvIATIONS ANd ACrONymSAEUA Aviation European Union AllowanceCBDR Common but Differentiated ResponsibilitiesCDM Clean Development Mechanism ETS Emissions Trading System EU European UnionEUA European Union Allowance GHG Greenhouse GasICAO International Civil Aviation Organization

18、JI Joint ImplementationMTOW Maximum Takeoff WeightMton Megaton PSO Public Service ObligationsRTK Revenue Tonne KilometreUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangevICTSD Programme on Trade and EnvironmentLIST OF TABLES ANd BOXESFigure 1 Effects of CO2 price on profit margin and CO2

19、emissionsFigure 2 Fuel price increases and air travel demand within EuropeTable 1 The effect of the EU ETS on ticket prices,output and operating resultsTable 2 The impact of the carbon price on ticket prices and demandTable 3 Marginal abatements costs and emission reduction potential for aviation in

20、 2020Table 4 Overview of the impact of EU ETS on CO2 emissionsTable 5 EU ETS costs for the flight Amsterdam-Los AngelesTable 6 Impact of the EU ETS on passenger numbers to/from AmsterdamTable 7 The risk of carbon leakage for different routesviJ.Faber,L.Brinke-The Inclusion of Aviation in the EU Emis

21、sions Trading SystemRicardo Melndez-Ortiz Chief Executive,ICTSDTackling climate change and energy security successfully will require a fundamental transformation of our economies and of the ways in which we generate and use energy.This in turn will impact significantly the transport sector,as today

22、the transport sector is responsible for 25 percent of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion.If international co-operation on climate change is to be effective,international regulatory frameworks will need to address transport emissions.One example of a regulatory framework that addresses

23、transport emissions is the European Unions Emissions Trading System(ETS),which will include aviation from 2012 onward.The EU has decided to unilaterally impose emissions trading on aircraft flying to and from EU airports due to disagreements on global measures to reduce aviation emissions.This paper

24、 discusses the economic and environmental consequences of the inclusion of aviation in the EU ETS.The study shows that the impact on net emissions covered by the EU ETS could be large,as with growing aviation emissions,operators will have to buy allowances from other sectors in the EU ETS.This,in tu

25、rn,will drive down emissions in these other sectors.There may also be changes in competitiveness and tourism.The impact on trade between Europe and developing countries is likely to be small,though this may vary between products and regions.The incorporation of aviation into the EU ETS is,however,th

26、e first instance of imports being included into a domestic carbon pricing strategy,and should therefore be seen as part of a bigger picture.Indeed the inclusion of aviation in the EU ETS is an example of a response measure to climate change that may impact the opportunities that trade has for contri

27、buting effectively to sustainable development.A clear understanding of the inter-linkages between response measures and their possible socio-economic impacts on developing countries in particular is,therefore,crucial.This paper aims to add to the information available to countries and stakeholders r

28、egarding the breadth and scope of response measures,as well as their potential implications for development.The authors are leading experts in the field of climate policy and international transport modes.Jasper Faber is the co-ordinator of CE Delfts work on aviation and maritime transport.The focus

29、 of his work is on climate policies with respect to international transport modes.Dr Faber has led and assisted in numerous consultancy projects on the inclusion of aviation in the EU ETS,including the impact assessment for the European Commission.Linda Brinke,MSc is a researcher in the field of tra

30、nsport economics,also at CE Delft.She is currently working on fiscal measures for the transport sector in the Netherlands and reviewing a social cost benefit analysis for the construction of a new airport.She is also conducting research on the link between economic growth and transport volume and th

31、e cost effectiveness of environmental policies.This paper is part of a series of issue papers published as part of ICTSDs Global Platform on Climate Change,Trade and Sustainable Energy.The Global Platform mobilizes technical and political expertise to foster strong multilateral regimes on trade and

32、climate change that effectively promote a transition to a low-carbon economy and a sustainable energy future.We hope that you will find the paper to be both stimulating and informative,and that it proves useful for your work.FOrEWOrdviiICTSD Programme on Trade and EnvironmentThe EU Emissions Trading

33、 System(ETS),which was launched in 2005,is one of Europes main policy instruments for reducing its greenhouse gas emissions.The ETS currently covers all major land-based installations in the EU.From 2012 onward,emissions from aircraft flying to and from EU airports will also be included in the schem

34、e.One of the reasons for this addition is that the international community has not been able to agree on a global measure to reduce aviation emissions.The regulation on aviation in the EU ETS is non-discriminatory and treats all airlines(EU and non-EU)the same.This increases the systems environmenta

35、l effectiveness by covering more flights;it also avoids a distortion of competition,since otherwise non-EU airline flights to and from EU Member States would become cheaper than those of EU airlines.The EU ETS does,however,allow exemptions for airlines that run few flights,including several airlines

36、 from small developing countries.In this paper,the economic and environmental consequences of the EU ETS are evaluated on the basis of existing literature.From this,it can be concluded that the EU ETS will have a small impact on ticket prices and aviation demand.Since emissions abatement in the avia

37、tion industry is generally expensive,the impact on aviation emissions will be small as airlines would rather buy allowances from other industries than to implement expensive measures in their fleet.The impact on net emissions covered by the EU ETS,in contrast,could be large because aviation emission

38、s are projected to grow strongly.The airlines,therefore,will have to offset an increasing share of their emissions by purchasing allowances from other sectors within the EU ETS or Kyoto project credits.While the inclusion of aviation in the EU ETS is being implemented in a way that limits distortion

39、 of competition,some changes in competitiveness may nevertheless occur.The competitiveness of hub airports just outside the EU,along with the non-EU airlines that serve these airports(including airlines from developing countries),may increase on some routes,due to the hub effect.There might also be

40、a switch to alternative transport modes and a diversion of tourism away from the EU.Therefore,some carbon leakage is likely to take place,meaning that the reduction of aviation emissions within the EU is partly compensated for by an increase of emissions outside of the EU ETS.The impact on trade bet

41、ween Europe and developing countries is likely to be small because of the low increase in aviation costs,but impacts may vary between products and regions.For the same reason,the impact on tourism is likely to limited on average because transport costs are a small share of total tourism expenditures

42、;however,some destinations with high cross-price elasticities of demand might experience a greater impact.Along with these small negative impacts,there may also be some small positive impacts on developing countries.The impact of revenues from auctioning allowances depends on how Member States decid

43、e to use these revenues.However,there is a large chance that at least part of these revenues will benefit developing countries,e.g.when they are spent on adaptation in developing countries.Demand for credits from CDM projects is likely to increase,which will have a positive impact on some developing

44、 countries because of the increased foreign direct investment.Together with this economic analysis of the inclusion of aviation in the EU ETS,ICTSD will be publishing a legal analysis on this issue.EXECuTIvE SummAry1J.Faber,L.Brinke-The Inclusion of Aviation in the EU Emissions Trading System1.INTrO

45、duCTION The EU Emissions Trading System(EU ETS),which was launched in 2005,is one of Europes main policy instruments for reducing its greenhouse gas emissions.The EU ETS works off of the“cap and trade”principle.This means that there is a cap,or limit,on the total amount of carbon dioxide(CO2)that ac

46、tors in the system can emit.Emission allowances can be traded among actors;the flexibility that such trading brings ensures that emissions are cut in the most cost-effective way.Initially,the EU ETS covered only stationary sources in Europe.However,in 2008,it was decided that the aviation sector wou

47、ld be included as well.Aviation accounts for approximately 4%of manmade CO2 emissions in the EU and the sectors emissions are growing very rapidly.Aviation will be included in the EU ETS from 2012 onward.In Directive 2008/101/EC on the inclusion of aviation in the EU ETS,all airlines(both EU based a

48、nd non-EU based)are to be treated equally.This increases the systems environmental effectiveness by covering more flights.It also avoids distorting competition,since without this requirement non-EU airline flights to and from EU Member States would become cheaper than those of EU airlines.The Kyoto

49、Protocol states the following in Article 2.2:“The Parties included in Annex I shall pursue limitation or reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases()from aviation(),working through the International Civil Aviation Organization”Although there have been various interpretations of this article,it is cl

50、ear that the burden of reducing emissions lies on Annex I countries,and that ICAO must be engaged in this process.Herein lies one of the main reasons for the current deadlock regarding aviation emissions.The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)makes a clear distinction betwe