咨询管理战略组织项目麦肯锡工具评估 MUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt

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1、-1-Roland Berger&Partner GmbH International Management ConsultantsBarcelona Beijing Berlin Brussels Bucharest Budapest Buenos Aires Detroit Dsseldorf Frankfurt Hamburg Kiev LisbonLondon Madrid Milan Moscow Munich New York Paris Prague Riga Rome So Paulo Shanghai Stuttgart Tokyo Vienna ZurichHolderba

2、nk Management&Consulting Interim presentation Slag supply 2020Zurich,March 31,2000MUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-2-This document was created for the exclusive use of our clients.It is not complete unless supported by the underlying detailed analyses and oral presentation.It must not be passed on to third

3、 parties except with the explicit prior consent of Roland Berger&Partners.Content PageA.Current work status3B.Top-down assessment81.Future output levels102.Blast furnace outlook203.Steel making technology trends314.Feedstock availability58C.Bottom-up assessment791.Plant survey812.Country survey84MUC

4、-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-3-A.Current work statusMUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-4-During Phase 1 we have focussed on long-term trends affecting steel making processesDegree of completionTop down assessment1.Forecast output levels70%2.Review of existing blast furnaces80%3.Assessment of steel making technolog

5、y trends70%4.Determination of feedstock availability and cost 60%Bottom-up assessment1.Assessment of current/future plant viability Start Apr.32.Review of company/plant strategic Start Apr.3options/plans3.Estimation of most likely slag output20%volumes4.Scrutiny of selected steel producing30%countri

6、esPhase 1Phase 2MUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-5-From April onwards,we will concentrate on the field surveyA.Top down assessment1.Studying available forecasts/studies2.Discussing with steel organisations3.Discussing with plant makers4.Develop output and mixscenariosB.Bottom-up assessment1.Construct quest

7、ionnaire2.Contact respondents3.Brief international offices4.Conduct interviews5.Interpret interview resultsC.Country studies1.Interpreting available studies2.Discussing with country expertsConclusion and presentationFebMarAprMay7MonthWkIssues891011121314151617181920 Kick-off(16.02.)Interim presentat

8、ion(31.03.)Final presentation(19.05.)MUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-6-In-depth discussions with steel industry experts are on-goingExpert interviews(selected)Plant makersSMS DemagKobe/MidrexHYLSA(HYL)VA TechLurgiFuchs(3)(3)(3)3(3)3OthersUN,IMF,OECD,World BankRWI-Essen33Steel organizationsIISIVW-StahlFEHs

9、ABAREBDSVRWTHPlantfactsBIRVDEh3333(3)(3)33(3)(3)follow-up requiredMUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-7-By the same token,our international offices have started their respective surveysCountry studiesResponsible(office)Ricardo Lins(So Paulo)Steel output 1999 m tKick-offbriefingInterviewsCountryreportBrazilChi

10、naIndiaJapanUkraineRoger Zhao(Shanghai)Ashish Wadhwani(New Delhi)Dr.Satoshi Nagashima(Tokyo)Dr.Vladimir Konstantinow(Kiew)25,0123,324,394,226,833333PersonalTelephonePostalStarting April 3rd 2000(3)(3)(3)(3)MUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-8-B.Top-down assessmentMUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-9-The top-down anal

11、ysis will be based on own assessments as well as Roland Berger&Partners industry expertise and databasesSlag supply 2020 top-down surveyAssessment stepsIssues to be addressedInformation sourcesregional consumptionlocational advantages/disadvantagescapacity utilizationoutput levelscost effectiveness:

12、operational/capital costsenergy effectivenessexpected global production shareenvironmental impactraw materials:iron ore,scrap,coking coal,cokeenergy:gas,electricitySteel outputPublished informationDiscussion with steel associationsSteel making technology trendsPublished informationRoland Berger&Part

13、ners databaseDiscussion with plantmakersFeedstock availabilityand costPublished informationRoland Berger&Partnersdatabase123MUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-10-B.1 Future output levelsMUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-11-The blast furnace route(still)accounts for 60%of total steel outputCrude steel output 1999 m t

14、 771 m tSource:IISIm t=million metric tons1)incl.TurkeyWesternEuropeAmericasJapanCIS/EasternEurope1)Asia(excl.Japan)Restofworld1561639412520429EAFBF/LDOthersBF/LD(455)Others(54)EAF(262)MUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-12-Global steel growth has considerably slowed down after the energy crisisSteel producti

15、on 19001999 mt1900192019301940195019601970198019901910End World War IWall Street CrashEnd World War IIStart of Cold WarIndustrial growth(Steel age)1st oil crisis2nd oil crisisEnd East/West conflict-growth%p.a.GDPSteel1945731973995.2%1)6.7%2.8%0.4%Source:World Bank1)between 19661973MUC-0061-04238-02-

16、02a.ppt-13-For the coming decade,only moderate growth is forecasted:+100200 million tonsComparison of crude steel output forecasts m t1)calculated from finished steel consumption forecast assuming losses at 10%2)distinct studiesIISI1)WSDABARERB&PIISIDelphiWSDRB&PAnnual growthrates 19992005/101,8%2,0

17、%2,3%1,4%0,9%3,1%1,3%199920052010Source:World BankActual2)2)MUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-14-According to a IISI survey,steel output is expected to grow to 850 million tons till 2010 and LD production remain at current levelIISI Delphi survey 1999(1)Steel output m tVarianceOther1)EAFLD1)435(57%)425(50%)

18、250(33%)340(40%)76085075(10%)Share of production%Quartiles1st2nd3rd4thOthersEAFLDNumber of participants=130Median860(3rd qt.)850(1st qt.)50(6%)MUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-15-More specifically,flat products will primarily be produced through the LD routeIISI Delphi survey 1999(2)1)Assuming flat/long ra

19、tio will remain at current levels(55/45)Importance of LD1)m tVariance flat products on LDm tQuartilesMedianFlatLong(median)(median)420470340380385390505023028075155605020LDOtherEAF1st2nd3rd4thMUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-16-Until 2020,we would expect steel output to increase by 200 million tons(i.e.+1.

20、1%p.a.)1)to be validated by field researchSteel output 2020 m tTentativeKey assumptions1)836Roland Berger steel model(1)Source:Roland Berger&Partners estimates+1.1%p.a.1.GDP growth 199920202.Finished steel intensitykg/1,000$GDP)3.Yield losses crude/finished 4.Steel trade balance:2.4%p.a.1999202024.0

21、19.49%6%not consideredMUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-17-In this time frame,slag output could fall considerably and be partially offset by higher granulation ratesLikely slag output m t163163145135123thereof granulatedKey assumptions1)1)to be validated by field researchTentativeRoland Berger steel model(2

22、)1.Metallurgical mix BF/LDEAF(scrap and/or DRI)Others2.Pig iron overfeed3.Slag rates 4.Granulation rate1999202060%50%35%45%5%5%1.17 1.0030%25%45%70%MUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-18-Higher quality ores may lead worldwide to lower slag volumes1)to be validated by field researchFuture slag rates1)Schematic

23、Fe content%Slag ratekg/t1,0003002030405060400500600700800900 MUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-19-Next steps1.Further detail analysis on a regional basis:trade balance,metallurgical mix2.Collect empirical date for slag rates and compare with HMC slag data base3.Assess future iron ore quality for blast furna

24、ces4.Agree on future granulation rates5.Carry-out sensitivity analysis(best/worst case scenarios)6.MUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-20-B.2 Blast furnace outlookMUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-21-Worldwide some 600 blast furnaces are currently being reviewedPlant facts database overview1.Companies2.Sites3.Blast f

25、urnaces210230586Available informationUnits1.Capacity2.Age(inst.or last rel.)installationlast relining3.Operational status4.Slag granulator510413366300585110Capacity mt588518474432588217Installed capacityUnits1.Plant facts2.RB&P estimatesTotalless:non-operating5103654633Capacity mt5883362143MUC-0061-

26、04238-02-02a.ppt-22-The availability capacity is in line with the actual output levelsInstalled blast furnace capacity mt588-36552+26578538415451)34508Total capacity(plant facts)Non-operatingOperatingAdditional capacity(RB&P estimate)Total capacity(plant facts and RB&P estimate)Pig iron output 19989

27、3%capacity utilization1)of which 47 units with capacity dataNumber of furnaces586MUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-23-The main economic powers still concentrate the bulk of the pig iron productionPig iron output and capacity by region 199891%72%50%86%100%100%n.a.82%100%105.138.3116.771.526.410.4n.a.91.061.5

28、 Annual capacity (operating furnaces)1)incl.Turkey 537.7CapacityutilizationMUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-24-By todays standards,some 24%of the installed capacity is too small and needs replacementCapacity by blast furnace size m t25%55%20%Likely migrationLikely replacement byMini/compact blast furnaceEl

29、ectric arc furnaceCorexOthers 578 m t%of total capacity Annual capacity m tMUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-25-Also in terms of age,substantial modernization requiredCapacity by blast furnace age1)383 furnaces/499 m t Age y67Likely replacement/revamp113 furnaces108 mt capacity11291472442Number of furnaces1

30、)based on start-up year or year of last refurbishmentMUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-26-Nevertheless,pig iron output level may only decrease by some 30 million tons till 2020Blast furnaces capacity outlook 2020m tIn operation1999Under constructionLikely closures/replacementsLikely new buildings/revampsIn

31、operation202057825-16330e5305501)6080New build.Revamps26RB&P estimates552VDE hPlant facts1)to be validated by field researchTentativeMUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-27-Some 28%(or 163 m t)of the installed blast furnace capacity needs to be replaced till 2020Operating blast furnaces of the world by age and

32、 capacity Sum of capacityAge/annual capacity 3 m tNo dataTotal04 years59 years1014 years1519 years2024 years 25 yearsNo age dataTotal101921186195014069996724237303192246381111700000010116412653292680578Operating blast furnaces of the world by age and capacity#of furnacesAge/annual capacity 3 m tNo d

33、ataTotal04 years59 years1014 years1519 years2024 years 25 yearsNo age dataTotal214136261037111282405840141352519561210331154126376711291472442162545Back-upMUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-28-Plant makers have expressed only moderate optimism with respect to blast furnace new buildings(as opposed to upgrade

34、s/revamps)Blast furnaces under constructionCountryChinaSouth KoreaIndonesiaIndiaIndiaIndiaIndiaIndiaBrazilBrazilIndiaIndiaIndiaCompanyBaotouPoscoCitraKiscoNeelachal IspatElectrosteel castingMescoSesaCSNCSTTataBhushanEssarStart-up2001199719971998199619971997 Capacity m t2,840,070,240,500,100,306,002,

35、0010,004,000,6026,65SourcePress reportsPlantfactsTentativeMUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-29-The availability of slag granulators has been identified only on a scattered basis so farPlantfacts slag granulator info1)m tSlag granulatorNo slag granulatorNo data about slag granulator 545 furnaces,578 m t1)Onl

36、y operating furnaces.There is also slag granulation into on 5 non-operating furnaces#offurnaces4402085MUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-30-Next steps1.Fine-tune blast furnace closures/replacements:use of larger units,quality of feedstock supply2.Scrutinize potential for blast furnace new buildings3.Review/v

37、alidate Chinese figures4.Analyse in further detail sea-side locations and compare with HMC slag data base5.MUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-31-B.3 Steel making technology trendsMUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-32-Steel makers worldwide are confronted with serious trade-offs choosing the right metallurgical proces

38、sProcess route2020Product mix constraintsEcological impactMetallic requirementsEnergy requirementsIron ore:lumps,fines,palletsScrap substitutes:DRI,HBIScrap:new/old1Coal:coking/steam gradeGasElectricityProduct mix:flat/longSteel grades:low/high residualsTarget capacityCO2 emissionsHazardous by-produ

39、cts:dioxides,furanes423MUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-33-Recently developed processes aim at more diversified metallic/energetic burdens:ore fines in combination with gas or coalin bold:commercial operationSteel output by process 1998m tCokeGas 774CorexMidrexHYLBlast furnaceFior/FinmetCircoredIron Carbid

40、e59%30%4%7%(Scrap)(DRI)Sinter(fines)Lump ore/pelletsFinesCoalHismeltCircoferInmetcoFastmet1)1)Primarily open hearthMUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-34-The main advantage of rotary hearth and fluidized bed processes is the possibility of direct charging of(cheaper)iron ore finesSource:Roland Berger&Partner

41、researchMain processes for iron reduction(DRI/HRI)Batch processesContinuous processesTank processRotary kiln processShaft processFluidized bed processRotary hearth processSimple processLow requirements for degradation stability of iron oresUtilization of non-coking coalLow requirements for degradati

42、on stability of iron oresEnergetic efficiencyHigh metallization ratioDirect charging of finesStability problems of fine particles in fluidized beds limits productivity and requires complex multi-stage operationDirect charging of green pellets(fines and coals)Utilization of non-coaking coalHyl I/IIKi

43、nglor-MetorSL/RNMIDREXHyl IIIIron CarbideCircoferCircoredFior/FinmetHismeltInmetcoFastmetCometMUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-35-Capacity is the most important constraint(or advantage)of innovative iron reduction processes Typical plant sizes by process1)m t/ySource:trade pressBlastfurnaceCorexMidrexHyI-I

44、IIFinmetInmetcoIron carbideElectric arcfurnace1234Capacitym tConv.BFCBF2)MBF3)TwinshellPig ironDRI/HBIIroncarbideCrudesteel For comparison purposes1)For further details,please refer to enclosures 2)Compact blast furnace3)Mini blast furnaceMUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-36-Reference output m tBy and large

45、,innovative iron unit match/underbid the conventional blast furnace route(at lower output levels)Investment costs by processUS$/t annual capacitySource:trade press;plant makers3002701)80100Blast furnaceSintering plantCoking plant210230250300180220For comparison purposes350,81,20,30,50,70,81,41404012

46、01)Scope to be checkedMUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-37-From a cement view point,innovative processes may nevertheless be quite attractiveSuitable for cement pro-ductionTypical slag rates of iron making processeskg/ton liquid iron2503003005005070180300400YesYesnotbcYesTentativeInmetcoMUC-0061-04238-02-02

47、a.ppt-38-Cost position of steel plants is primarily determined by the steel making routeWest-EuropeEastern EuropeHRC production costs 1999US$/tExampleSource:Roland Berger&Partners analysis211,854,2266,080%20%21,2Others (8%)20,3Labor(7,6%)38,2Energy(14,4%)Raw materials (70%)186,3203,147,2250,381%19%2

48、1,1Others (8,5%)7,7Labor(3,1%)41,4Energy(16,5%)Raw materials (71,9%)180,1MUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-39-B.3.1 Product mix constraintsMUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-40-For flat products,thin slab casting(in combination with virgin iron units)offers an attractive alternative to scale-driven blast furnacesPro

49、duct mix constraintsHSM:Hot Strip MillTSC:Thin Slab Casting0.10.20.30.40.512345Trace elementscum.%Capacitym t EAF(scrap-based)Long products EAF(DRI/HBI-based)+TSC Flat products BF+large HSMs Flat products1970199019952005MUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-41-High valve added flat products require high quality

50、 scrap(scarcely available)and/or virgin iron units(DRI/HBI)Trace elements(Cu+Sn+Ni+Cr+Mo)(in%of weight)Shredder grade(Sorte 4)0.51New scrap(Sorte 2)0.20New bales(Sorte 6)0.13DRI/HRI0.02MUC-0061-04238-02-02a.ppt-42-High grade steel products require low residual metallic feedstocksExamples of product