贝恩+2023全球奢侈品市场研究预测-32正式版.doc

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1、Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its ReboundThe latest Bain-Altagamma Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study forecasts increased resilience to recession after robust 2022 growth.About the authorsThe Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study was authored by Claudia DArpizio, Federica Levato, and Fi

2、lippo Prete.This report was written by Jolle de Montgolfier with support from Allison Kavanagh.Claudia DArpizio (claudia.darpizio) is a Bain & Company partner based in Milan and the leader of the firms Global Luxury and Fashion vertical.Federica Levato (federica.levato) is a Bain partner and a leadi

3、ng member of the Luxury and Fashion vertical. She is based in Bains Milan office.Filippo Prete (filippo.prete) is an associate partner in Bains Milan office. He also works with the firms Luxury and Fashion vertical.Jolle de Montgolfier (joelle.demontgolfier) is Bains global practice executive vice p

4、resident for Consumer Products, Retail, and Luxury. She is based in the firms Paris office.Allison Kavanagh is a practice manager in Bains Retail practice. She is based in the firms New York office.Copyright 2022 Bain & Company, Inc. All rights reserved.Renaissance in Uncertainty: Luxury Builds on I

5、ts Covid ReboundContentsExecutive summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2. . . . . . . . .Luxury spending trends in 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.Regional highlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

6、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10Distribution trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15. . .Individual category performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1

7、8Outlook for the future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22. . . . . . . . .Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .261Renaissance in Uncertainty: Luxury Builds on Its Covid ReboundE

8、xecutive summaryThe global luxury goods market took a leap forward in 2022, despite uncertain market conditions. The industry is poised to see further expansion next year and for the rest of the decade to 2030, even in the face of economic turbulence. These are key findings from the 21st edition of

9、the Bain & Company-Altagamma Luxury Study, a collaboration between Bain & Company and Fondazione Altagamma, the trade association of Italian luxury goods manufacturers.The overall luxury industry tracked by Bain & Company encompasses both luxury goods and experiences. It comprises nine segments, led

10、 by luxury cars, luxury hospitality, and personal luxury goods, which together account for more than 80% of the total market. After a severe contraction in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the market grew back to 1.15 trillion in 2021 and surprised everyone in 2022 by further growing 19%21%, accor

11、ding to our estimates.Luxury spending continued to skew toward products, with steep growth in personal luxury goods and more moderate growth in experience-based goods. Spending on experiences will be the last luxury outlay to recover historical highs given its reliance on the resumption of internati

12、onal tourism and business travel.The market for personal luxury goodsthe “core of the core” of luxury segments and the focus of this analysissaw impressive growth in 2022, coming on the heels of the V-shaped Covid rebound enjoyed in 2021. Despite worsening macroeconomic indicators globally and speci

13、fic challenges in China, the sector performed strongly across quarters, and it is likely to have reached 353 billion in retail sales value in 2022, marking an advance of 22% at current exchange rates (or 15% at constant exchange rates) vs. 2021. In 2022, we estimate that 95% of brands experienced po

14、sitive growth, but most luxury players continued to invest for the future, which resulted in a slight erosion of average profitability following an unprecedented increase in 2021.Luxury in 2023: More resilient to recession than in 2009Despite recessionary conditions expected across leading economies

15、 in 2023, personal luxury goods should see further expansion.The impact of a possible global recession on the industry in 2023 could differ from the impact of the 200809 global financial crisis. The luxury market now appears better equipped to cope with economic turbulence, thanks to a consumer base

16、 that is both larger and more concentrated on top customers who are less sensitive to downturns. The customer centricity honed in recent years is another source of resilience for the industry, as is the multi-touchpoint ecosystem that luxury has developed.2Renaissance in Uncertainty: Luxury Builds o

17、n Its Covid ReboundAs a result, two scenarios could play out in 2023, with sales growth in the personal luxury goods market ranging from 3% to 5% in the base case and up to 6% to 8% (at constant exchange rates) in a more positive case, depending on the strength of economic recovery in China and the

18、ability of the US and Europe to withstand economic headwinds.Old markets lead, but newcomers surpriseThe US luxury market proved very strong in 2022. Europe managed to recover beyond pre-Covid 2019 levels thanks to solid domestic demand, alongside a boost from US and Middle Eastern tourist shoppers.

19、 Meanwhile, China, which remains crucial to the long-term future of the luxury market, was challenged due to Covid lockdowns, and sales are likely to be down vs. 2021. Chinas luxury market is expected to recover by the second half of 2023. Southeast Asia and South Korea have been excelling in both g

20、rowth and future potential.Although there will never be “another China” in terms of growth contribution to the industry, new markets (such as India and emerging Southeast Asian and African countries) have significant potential, assuming their luxury shopping infrastructure can evolve quickly enough.

21、 Among the rising stars, India stands out; its luxury market could expand to 3.5 times todays size by 2030.Stores win back their roleRetail continued to grow faster than wholesale and reached parity in terms of market share. Meanwhile, the online channels market share is normalizing. The coming year

22、s will see a further blurring of the boundaries between monobrand outlets and e-commerce, which will increasingly push brands to take an “omnichannel 3.0” approach, enabled and enhanced by new technologies.Outperformance of all categoriesAll personal luxury goods categories have now recovered to 201

23、9 levels or better, with hard luxury, leather, and apparel leading the resurgence following the pandemic. A deliberate (and effective) elevation strategy has driven a progressive price increase across the leather categoryaccounting for about 60% of 201922 growthwithout damaging volume growth.Expandi

24、ng, yet elevated, customer baseThe luxury markets consumer base will expand from some 400 million people in 2022 to 500 million by 2030. The share of top customers has been expanding and accounted for some 40% of market value in 2022, compared with 35% last year. These consumers are hungry for uniqu

25、e products and experiences, putting brands VIC (very important client) strategies into overdrive.3Renaissance in Uncertainty: Luxury Builds on Its Covid ReboundStrong generational and technology trends to reshape the market through 2030The prospects for personal luxury goods out to 2030 are positive

26、. Solid fundamentals are set to boost the markets value to between 540 billion and 580 billion by the end of the present decade, from an estimated 353 billion in 2022a rise of 50% or more.A powerful factor for sector growth this decade will be generational trends. Generation Y (millennials) and Gene

27、ration Z accounted for all of the markets growth in 2022. The spending of Gen Z and the even younger Generation Alpha is set to grow three times faster than other generations through 2030, making up a third of the market. This reflects a more precocious attitude toward luxury, with Gen Z consumers s

28、tarting to buy luxury items some three to five years earlier than millennials did (at 15 vs. at 1820); Gen Alpha is expected to behave in a similar way.New types of activities, often powered by technology, should also spark an additional 60 billion to 120 billion in sales by 2030, from sources such

29、as the metaverse and brand-related media content.4Luxury spending trends in 2022 The overall luxury market tracked by Bain & Company comprises nine segments: luxury cars, personal luxury goods, luxury hospitality, fine wines and spirits, gourmet food and fine dining, high-end furniture and houseware

30、s, fine art, private jets and yachts, and luxury cruises. Luxury cars, luxury hospitality, and personal luxury goods together account for 80% of the total market. Overall, we estimate that in 2022 the luxury markets overall retail sales value grew by 19%21% to 1.38 trillion, or 8%10% above 2019 leve

31、ls. All segments gained momentum, but only luxury hospitality and cruises havent yet closed the gap with pre-Covid levels. Sales of luxury cars, the biggest portion of the overall market, hit a new record, reaching an estimated 566 billion, 6% more than 2021 at current exchange rates and 3% above 20

32、19. Luxury cars are still subject to supply chain disruption, with component shortages further heightened by the Russia-Ukraine war. In Europe, high-end Asian automakers, particularly Chinese brands, have gained share from local rivals. As consumer interest in greener vehicles grows, along with gove

33、rnment encouragement, premium car manufacturers have focused on larger models, to ease the higher cost of electric-car components. Demand for personalization and digital connectivity rose. Consumer expectations for service levels are rising too, with brands embracing direct-to-consumer models to cre

34、ate a more luxurious shopping experience at every stage. The luxury hospitality market surged to an estimated 191 billion, more than doubling in value in 2022. In spite of 110% year-over-year growth at current exchange rates, sales were still down 7% from their 2019 level. Growth was steady across r

35、egions as people finally realized travel ambitions previously blocked by Covid, using money they couldnt spend on trips during the pandemic. However, Chinese lockdowns, a continued shortfall in international Asian tourism, and limited business travel constrained total market growth. Travelers were l

36、ured not just to leading cities but also to out-of-the-way destinations, in keeping with the pandemic trend to seek5Renaissance in Uncertainty: Luxury Builds on Its Covid Reboundrural solitude. Intuitive service that goes beyond merely offering “the human touch” is becoming more crucial, and operato

37、rs are increasingly looking to technology to automate predictable tasks and free employees to focus on the most important interactions. Sales of fine wines and spirits hit 96 billion, up 16% on 2021. Spirits grew faster than wine, with “status spirits” growing internationally and across categories,

38、tapping into usage occasions once reserved for wines. Sparkling wine (and not just Champagne) gained share over still. Gourmet food and fine dining grew 12% at current exchange rates to 57 billion, completing its recovery to prepandemic levels, as social restrictions were lifted across major cities.

39、 The pandemic-fueled interest in consuming gourmet food at home continued, boosting select food retailers and fostering demand for culinary education. The high-end furniture and housewares market reached 53 billion, up 13% from 2021. The growth was fueled by the greater emphasis consumers have been

40、placing on their home lifeas both shelter and source of self-definitionsince the pandemic. Lighting and living/bedroom categories benefited the most, as consumers looked for more comfort, functionality, and beauty. Demand for high-end furniture and fixtures in commercial spaces was driven by an incr

41、easing appetite for refined aesthetics and higher quality. The fine art market grew 13% to 39 billion, as the ranks of potential buyers swelled and new Asian art hubs strengthened. Art benefited from being seen by the wealthy as an alternative asset to hedge against volatility in financial markets.

42、In keeping with greater social interest in diversity, equity, and inclusion, galleries and collectors focused more on areas such as women artists and African art. The nonfungible token (NFT) market stabilized after a wave of speculative interest from investors. Art-based NFTs still represent a limit

43、edalbeit expandingportion of the overall market; artists are looking for ways to meaningfully integrate NFTs into fine arts. Sales of private yachts and jets grew by 18% at current exchange rates relative to 2021, reaching 26 billion. Luxury yacht orders rose to a record level, amid solid growth in

44、deliveries. Interest from high-net-worth individuals continued to rise, reflecting a desire for deeper connections with nature and comfort; designs increasingly reflect these preoccupations, through features such as enlarged stern areas or a preference for explorer yachts able to sail to the remotes

45、t areas. Sustainability remains a focus for both consumers and shipyards, from greener propulsion systems to design-for-disassembly solutions that make yacht materials more recyclable. Wealthy individuals turned to private jets more in 2022, due to their perceived safety and efficiency vs. commercia

46、l travel. However, rising sustainability concerns, coupled with increased operational costs, narrowed the potential customer base and restricted airplane utilization rates.6Renaissance in Uncertainty: Luxury Builds on Its Covid Rebound When segmented into goods vs. experiences, spending continued to

47、 skew to tangible products in 2022. The steepest growth rate between 2019 and 2022 belonged to personal luxury goods, followed by experience-based goods, such as fine art and luxury cars. Demand for luxury experiences has been improving, but this segment will be the last of the three to regain its 2019 levels, probably in