机场规划设计模拟答辩图文.pptx

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1、机场概括 福州长乐国际机场，简称福州机场，机场位于福州市东南方向长乐漳港海滨，距离福州市中心约45公里。多条机场巴士全天候穿梭于市区与机场之间，行程约50分钟。福州长乐国际机场于1997年6月23日投入使用，为国内首座完全由地方政府自筹资金兴建的大型现代化航空机场。长乐机场为福建省主要的国际机场，是中国华东地区重要的航空国际口岸之一，中国东南沿海最繁忙机场之一，也是重要的航空客货集散地。飞行区等级为4E级，停机坪面积32万平方米。福州机场目前已被国家民航局确定为“海上丝绸之路”门户枢纽机场，这意味着福州机场从一般枢纽机场上升为国家级门户枢纽机场，使之成为机场设施互联互通和打造空中交通走廊的核心

2、节点。第1页/共43页航空业务量预测趋势外推法 用此方法预测航空业务量时，先要收集有关历史数据，接着做出业务量随时间变化的曲线，然后根据曲线的变化趋势推测今后的航空业务量。主要用于短期预测。计量经济法 根据航空业务量确定与其有关的自变量，并建立函数关系模型。计算函数模型中各个参数值，确定函数。然后检查函数关系中因变量与自变量之间的相关程度。最后，根据收集的资料进一步预测今后的航空业务量。市场分析法 将全国或地区范围内的航空业务量分配到一个小地区的预测方法。第2页/共43页1985-2014年的吞吐量年客运年客运/万万 年货运年货运/吨吨 年份年份1985198523.3223.32425742

3、571986198635.7235.72436943691987198751.4651.46468246821989198959.4359.43457845781990199043.0743.07376837681991199139.939.95516551619921992104.41104.416607660719931993133133130381303819941994147.4147.4272872728719951995169.75169.75347593475919961996198.37198.37374563745619971997221.3221.3406004060019

4、981998211.58211.58412004120019991999204.47204.47453264532620002000215.31215.31507895078920012001229.39229.39498534985320022002244.56244.56482424824220032003254.37254.37487514875120042004312.88312.88491284912820052005345.48345.48500755007520062006379.41379.41542745427420072007424.72424.72565125651220

5、082008453.89453.89601526015220092009545.22545.22644326443220102010648.31648.31794277942720112011720.46720.46876438764320122012785.27785.27969149691420132013892.59892.5911032011032020142014936.32936.32122000122000第3页/共43页客运吞吐量柱状图第4页/共43页客运量拟合曲线y=1.3577x2-11.984x+90.672第5页/共43页趋势外推法客运直线型年客运年客运/万万 X X年

6、份年份-14-141985198523.3223.32196196-326.48-326.48543.8224543.8224-13-131986198635.7235.72169169-464.36-464.361275.91841275.9184-12-121987198751.4651.46144144-617.52-617.522648.13162648.1316-11-111989198959.4359.43121121-653.73-653.733531.92493531.9249-10-101990199043.0743.07100100-430.7-430.71855.0249

7、1855.0249-9-91991199139.939.98181-359.1-359.11592.011592.01-8-819921992104.41104.416464-835.28-835.2810901.448110901.4481-7-7199319931331334949-931-9311768917689-6-619941994147.4147.43636-884.4-884.421726.7621726.76-5-519951995169.75169.752525-848.75-848.7528815.062528815.0625-4-419961996198.37198.3

8、71616-793.48-793.4839350.656939350.6569-3-319971997221.3221.39 9-663.9-663.948973.6948973.69-2-219981998211.58211.584 4-423.16-423.1644766.096444766.0964-1-119991999204.47204.471 1-204.47-204.4741807.980941807.98090 020002000215.31215.310 00 046358.396146358.39611 120012001229.39229.39 1 1229.39229.

9、3952619.772152619.77212 220022002244.56244.56 4 4489.12489.1259809.593659809.59363 320032003254.37254.37 9 9763.11763.1164704.096964704.09694 420042004312.88312.88 16161251.521251.5297893.894497893.89445 520052005345.48345.48 25251727.41727.4119356.4304119356.43046 620062006379.41379.41 36362276.462

10、276.46143951.9481143951.94817 720072007424.72424.72 49492973.042973.04180387.0784180387.07848 820082008453.89453.89 64643631.123631.12206016.1321206016.13219 920092009545.22545.22 81814906.984906.98297264.8484297264.8484101020102010648.31648.31 1001006483.16483.1420305.8561420305.8561111120112011720

11、.46720.46 1211217925.067925.06519062.6116519062.6116121220122012785.27785.27 1441449423.249423.24616648.9729616648.9729131320132013892.59892.59 16916911603.6711603.67796716.9081796716.9081141420142014936.32936.32 19619613108.4813108.48876695.1424876695.14240 09031.369031.362030203058355.3658355.3647

12、63269.2094763269.209第6页/共43页客运直线型 311.4262069311.426206928.7464827628.746482760.9273446330.927344633年份年份预测量预测量20202020886.3558621886.3558621202520251030.0882761030.088276203020301173.820691173.82069205020501748.7503451748.750345第7页/共43页趋势外推法货运直线型年货运年货运/吨吨 X X年份年份-14-141985198542574257196196-59598-59

13、5981812204918122049-13-131986198643694369169169-56797-567971908816119088161-12-121987198746824682144144-56184-561842192112421921124-11-111989198945784578121121-50358-503582095808420958084-10-101990199037683768100100-37680-376801419782414197824-9-919911991551655168181-49644-496443042625630426256-8-81

14、9921992660766076464-52856-528564365244943652449-7-71993199313038130384949-91266-91266169989444169989444-6-61994199427287272873636-163722-163722744580369744580369-5-51995199534759347592525-173795-17379512081880811208188081-4-41996199637456374561616-149824-14982414029519361402951936-3-3199719974060040

15、6009 9-121800-12180016483600001648360000-2-21998199841200412004 4-82400-8240016974400001697440000-1-11999199945326453261 1-45326-45326205444627620544462760 02000200050789507890 00 0257952252125795225211 12001200149853498531 14985349853248532160924853216092 22002200248242482424 4964849648423272905642

16、3272905643 32003200348751487519 9146253146253237666000123766600014 42004200449128491281616196512196512241356038424135603845 52005200550075500752525250375250375250750562525075056256 62006200654274542743636325644325644294566707629456670767 72007200756512565124949395584395584319360614431936061448 82008

17、200860152601526464481216481216361826310436182631049 92009200964432644328181579888579888415148262441514826241010201020107942779427100100794270794270630864832963086483291111201120118764387643121121964073964073768129544976812954491212201220129691496914144144116296811629689392323396939232339613132013201

18、311032011032016916914341601434160121705024012170502400 014142014201412200012200019619617080001708000148840000014884000000 00 0总和总和130195513019552030203073940307394030881299712788129971279 9第8页/共43页趋势外推法客运直线型 44895448953642.379313642.379310.9526003590.952600359年份年份预测量预测量20202020117742.5862117742.5862

19、20252025135954.4828135954.482820302030154166.3793154166.379320502050227013.9655227013.9655第9页/共43页趋势外推法客运量指数型年份年份x xy y=年旅客年旅客吞吐量吞吐量（万）（万）yyxyxyx2x2y2y219851985-14-1423.3223.321.3677285461.367728546-19.14819965-19.148199651961961.8706813761.87068137619861986-13-1335.7235.721.552911451.55291145-20.18

20、784885-20.187848851691692.4115339722.41153397219871987-12-1251.4651.461.7114697821.711469782-20.53763738-20.537637381441442.9291288142.92912881419891989-11-1159.4359.431.774005731.77400573-19.51406303-19.514063031211213.1470963313.14709633119901990-10-1043.0743.071.6341748721.634174872-16.34174872-1

21、6.341748721001002.6705275122.67052751219911991-9-939.939.91.6009728961.600972896-14.40875606-14.4087560681812.5631142132.56311421319921992-8-8104.41104.41 2.0187420962.018742096-16.14993677-16.1499367764644.0753196494.07531964919931993-7-71331332.1238516412.123851641-14.86696149-14.8669614949494.510

22、7457934.51074579319941994-6-6147.4147.42.1684974842.168497484-13.0109849-13.010984936364.7023813364.70238133619951995-5-5169.75169.75 2.2298097832.229809783-11.14904891-11.1490489125254.9720516684.97205166819961996-4-4198.37198.37 2.2974759932.297475993-9.189903973-9.18990397316165.278395945.2783959

23、419971997-3-3221.3221.32.3449814142.344981414-7.034944242-7.0349442429 95.4989378325.49893783219981998-2-2211.58211.58 2.3254746132.325474613-4.650949226-4.6509492264 45.4078321755.40783217519991999-1-1204.47204.47 2.3106295972.310629597-2.310629597-2.3106295971 15.3390091345.339009134200020000 0215

24、.31215.31 2.3330642012.3330642010 00 05.4431885665.443188566aa2.3127323592.312732359bb0.0505084030.0505084030.9671897570.967189757取吞吐量的对数记做y第10页/共43页200120011 1229.39229.39 2.36057442.360574481812.360574482.360574481 11 15.5723118825.572311882200220022 2244.56244.56 2.38838542.388385426264.776770854

25、.776770851 14 45.7043849425.704384942200320033 3254.37254.37 2.40546582.40546589 97.216397677.216397679 95.7862661485.786266148200420044 4312.88312.88 2.49537782.495377803039.981511219.981511212 216166.2269103796.226910379200520055 5345.48345.48 2.53842292.5384229111112.692114512.69211455 525256.443

26、5908756.443590875200620066 6379.41379.41 2.57910872.5791087737315.474652615.47465264 436366.6518020646.651802064200720077 7424.72424.72 2.62810272.6281027121218.396718918.39671899 949496.9069238676.906923867200820088 8453.89453.89 2.65695062.6569506151521.255604921.25560492 264647.0593865687.0593865

27、68200920099 9545.22545.22 2.73657172.7365717787824.629146024.62914601 181817.4888250997.488825099201020101010648.31648.31 2.81178272.8117827212128.117827228.11782721 11001007.9061220677.906122067201120111111720.46720.46 2.85760982.8576098747431.433708631.43370861 11211218.1659341918.1659341912012201

28、21212785.27785.27 2.89501902.8950190060634.740228034.74022807 71441448.3811350468.381135046201320131313892.59892.59 2.95065202.9506520171738.358476238.35847622 21691698.7063473258.706347325201420141414936.32936.32 2.97142432.9714243 41.599940241.59994021961968.8293623718.829362371总和总和0 09031.39031.3

29、6 667.06923867.0692384 4102.532058102.5320588 820302030160.6492471160.6492471lgylgy客运量客运量y y202020203.3229004263.3229004262103.2961462103.296146202520253.5754424433.5754424433762.2048843762.204884203020303.827984463.827984466729.5257586729.525758205020504.8381525274.83815252768889.419868889.4198增长率=

30、0.123332705350845第11页/共43页趋势外推法货运指数型年货运年货运/吨吨 X X年份年份y ylgylgyx.lgyx.lgy(lgy)2(lgy)2-14-1419851985425742573.629103653.62910365-50.8074511-50.807451113.170393313.1703933-13-1319861986436943693.6403820453.640382045-47.32496658-47.3249665813.2523814313.25238143-12-1219871987468246823.6704314093.6704314

31、09-44.04517691-44.0451769113.4720667313.47206673-11-1119891989457845783.6606757883.660675788-40.26743367-40.2674336713.4005472313.40054723-10-1019901990376837683.5761108943.576110894-35.76110894-35.7611089412.7885691312.78856913-9-919911991551655163.7416242583.741624258-33.67461832-33.6746183213.999

32、7520813.99975208-8-819921992660766073.8200043073.820004307-30.56003445-30.5600344514.592432914.5924329-7-71993199313038130384.1152109774.115210977-28.80647684-28.8064768416.9349613816.93496138-6-61994199427287272874.4359557914.435955791-26.61573475-26.6157347519.6777037819.67770378-5-519951995347593

33、47594.5410672744.541067274-22.70533637-22.7053363720.6212919820.62129198-4-41996199637456374564.5735213964.573521396-18.29408559-18.2940855920.9170979620.91709796-3-31997199740600406004.6085260344.608526034-13.8255781-13.825578121.238512221.2385122-2-21998199841200412004.6148972164.614897216-9.22979

34、4432-9.22979443221.2972763121.29727631-1-11999199945326453264.6563473944.656347394-4.656347394-4.65634739421.6815710621.681571060 02000200050789507894.7057696624.7057696620 022.1442681122.14426811取吞吐量的对数记做y4.4649258094.4649258090.0526975240.0526975240.9170049530.917004953第12页/共43页1 12001200149853498

35、534.69769124.697691298984.6976912984.69769129822.0683035322.068303532 22002200248242482424.68342534.683425304049.3668506099.36685060921.9344725821.934472583 32003200348751487514.68798354.6879835292914.0639505914.0639505921.9771895621.977189564 42004200449128491284.69132904.6913290848418.7653163418.7

36、653163422.0085685822.008568585 52005200550075500754.69962094.6996209585823.4981047923.4981047922.0864371522.086437156 62006200654274542744.73459184.73459183 328.4075509828.4075509822.416359822.41635987 72007200756512565124.75214064.7521406787833.2649847433.2649847422.5828410222.582841028 82008200860

37、152601524.77925004.7792500727238.2340005738.2340005722.8412312522.841231259 92009200964432644324.80910164.8091016121243.2819145143.2819145123.1274583223.1274583210102010201079427794274.89996814.8999681595948.9996815948.9996815924.0096879624.0096879611112011201187643876434.94271724.9427172353554.3698

38、895854.3698895824.4304536624.4304536612122012201296914969144.98638654.9863865191959.8366382359.8366382324.8640505224.864050521313201320131103201103205.04265425.0426542535365.5545052965.5545052925.4283619225.428361921414201420141220001220005.08635985.0863598313171.2090376371.2090376325.8710563325.871

39、056330 013019551301955129.48284129.482848585106.9759733106.9759733584.8352978584.8352978lgylgy货运量货运量yy202020205.5188762855.518876285330275.4438330275.4438202520255.7823639045.782363904605848.3142605848.3142203020306.0458515236.0458515231111351.7121111351.712205020507.0998019997.09980199912583515.812

40、583515.8增长率=0.129009311543061第13页/共43页趋势外推法客运波布加门曲线型年份客运量/人货运量/吨年份客运量/人货运量/吨1992104.4166072003254.37487511993133130382004312.88491281994147.4272872005345.48500751995169.75347592006379.41542741996198.37374562007424.72565121997221.3406002008453.89601521998211.58412002009545.22644321999204.474532620106

41、48.31794272000215.31507892011720.46876432001229.39498532012785.27969142002244.56482422013892.59110320 预测出客运量2020年1516.683636人2025年2106.72人2050年6507.810909人货运量2020年197619.8347吨2025年274500吨2050年847950.4132吨第14页/共43页计量经济法客运量预测 一、直线预测 1、建立数学模型 y=a+bx 2、计算a、b的值 第15页/共43页 计算得 a=69.27882212 b=17.50091663 y

42、=69.27882212+17.50091663x 计算得3、预测客运量 按照十二五计划GDP增长率为9%，计算得2020年GDP为81.66425243亿元 预测十三五计划GDP增长率为8%，计算得2020年GDP为117.239595亿元 2020年的吞吐量为 y=69.27882212+17.5009166381.66425243=1498.47809万人2025年的吞吐量为 y=69.27882212+17.50091663117.239595=2121.079212万人第16页/共43页 二、指数预测 1、建立数学模型 2、计算a、b的值 log（y）=loga+(logb)x lo

43、gy=y loga=a logb=b第17页/共43页 计算得 a=-4.054363258 a=-4.054363258b=0.257861074b=0.257861074log-1a=8.82342E-05log-1a=8.82342E-05log-1b=1.810760757log-1b=1.810760757可发现a a、b b值不可用，舍弃该方法第18页/共43页 客运量预测 一、直线预测 1、建立数学模型 y=a+bx 2、计算a、b的值第19页/共43页 计算得计算得 a=9648.634639b=1298.570782 y=y=9648.634639+1298.570782x3

44、 3、预测客运量 按照十二五计划GDP增长率为8%，计算得2020年GDP为81.66425243亿元 预测十三五计划GDP增长率为7.5%，计算得2020年GDP为117.239595亿元 20202020年的货运吞吐量为 y=y=9648.634639+1298.57078281.66425243=1498.4780981.66425243=1498.47809万吨20252025年的货运吞吐量为 y=y=9648.634639+1298.570782117.239595=2121.079212117.239595=2121.079212万吨第20页/共43页 二、指数预测 1、建立数学模

45、型 2、计算a、b的值 log（y）=loga+(logb)x logy=y loga=a logb=b第21页/共43页计算得 a=a=3.876083518b=0.02676539log-1a=7517.674509log-1b=1.063568313 代入3 3、预测客运量 按照十二五计划GDP增长率为8%，计算得2020年GDP为81.66425243亿元 预测十三五计划GDP增长率为7.5%，计算得2020年GDP为117.239595亿元 20202020年的吞吐量为 20252025年的吞吐量为第22页/共43页市场分析法 根据观察分析，发现每产生4亿元人民币的GDP就会有100

46、00人的客运量和100吨的货运量。2011-2015年，国家“十二五”计划中，国民生产总值增长速率为9%，2016-2020年，国家“十三五”计划中，国民生产总值增长率按8%计算。2021-2025年在国家“十四五”计划中，虽然没有发布计划，但是按照我国的发展趋势，预计增长率在7.5%左右。但是2050年的国民生产总值变数较大，难以估计，所以暂时没有计算2050年的航空业务量。第23页/共43页最后预测结果客运客运202020202025202520502050趋势外推直线型趋势外推直线型886.3558621886.35586211030.0882761030.0882761748.7503

47、451748.750345趋势外推指数型趋势外推指数型2103.2961462103.2961463762.2048843762.20488468889.419868889.4198计量经济计量经济1498.4780961498.4780962121.0792122121.079212/市场分析市场分析2069.6897992069.6897992971.3073712971.307371/趋势拟合趋势拟合1334.41451334.41451783.6321783.6325047.99455047.9945平均值平均值1578.4468811578.4468812333.6623492333

48、.6623495047.99455047.9945货运货运202020202025202520502050趋势外推直线型趋势外推直线型117742.5862117742.5862135954.4828135954.4828227013.9655227013.9655趋势外推指数型趋势外推指数型330275.4438330275.4438605848.3142605848.314212583515.812583515.8计量经济计量经济115695.4468115695.4468161892.5481161892.5481/市场分析市场分析206968.9799206968.979929.713

49、0737129.71307371/趋势拟合趋势拟合141474.225141474.225175866.6175866.6401763.225401763.225平均值平均值182431.3363182431.3363225931.2645225931.2645401763.225401763.225第24页/共43页确定高峰小时系数设计高峰小时吞吐量4000人高峰小时内假设五分内有一架飞机起降 则五分钟内客运量设二月和十月为高峰客运量月年高峰小时系数第25页/共43页高峰小时客运量和起降架次2020年机种比例和满座率预测高峰小时客运量和起降架次 第26页/共43页高峰小时客运量和起降架次20

50、25年机种比例和满座率预测高峰小时客运量和起降架次第27页/共43页高峰小时客运量和起降架次2050年机种比例和满座率预测高峰小时客运量和起降架次第28页/共43页旅客航站区预测预测航站楼面积站坪停机位数第29页/共43页 计算车道边长度 高峰小时旅客量 3分钟内的旅客量 利用分担率计算出乘坐各种交通方式的人数 利用折算系数折算出车辆数 则总车辆数 车道边长度第30页/共43页跑道方向 由风力符合图得出四个可选方向：1、南东南北西北方向2、东东南西西北方向3、东东南西西北方向4、东东南西西北方向第31页/共43页跑道方向风徽图1、南东南北西北方向第32页/共43页跑道方向风徽图2、东东南西西北