保利地产股票价值评估.xls

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1、保保利利地地产产DCFDREAVG.41.9253.0347.482.71Growth rate3019%10-year treasurary yield3.68%tax rate27.36%NOPM33.62%Rev./Asset24.79%Equity Risk Permium(%)7%RE growth%2%0.000.00Growth rate10-year treasurary yieldtax rateNOPMRev./AssetEquity Risk Permium(%)RE growth%0.000.00Growth rate10-year treasurary yieldta

2、x rateNOPMRev./AssetEquity Risk Permium(%)RE growth%0.000.00Growth rate10-year treasurary yieldtax rateNOPMRev./AssetEquity Risk Permium(%)RE growth%Average Stock Value47.48Safety index()2.71保保利利地地产产Intrinsic Stock Value by DRE53.03Quantitative grade5.21Company TickerBLDCIntrinsic Stock Value by DCF

3、41.92Excess Return Period(years)10.00Depreciation Rate(%of Rev.)0.16%Rev.(mil.)22,986.61Investment Rate(%of Rev.)0.23%Growth Rate(%)3019%Working Capital(%of Rev.)276.97%Net Operating Profit Margin(%)33.62%Short-Term Assets(mil.)88,504.16Tax Rate(%)27.36%Short-Term Liabilities(mil.)38,233.62Stock Pri

4、ce12.30Equity Risk Permium(%)7.00%Shares Outstanding(mil.)3,519.72Company Beta()1.2610-year Treasury Yield(%)3.68%Value of Debt out(mil.)24,511.664,261.887%17.4%1.22%Bond Spread to Treasury(%)Value of Pref.Stock Out(mil.)20,249.785%83%4.13%Perferred Stock Yield(%)Company WACC(%)9.39%24,511.665.35%St

5、andard Deviation0.52Cost of Common Equity10-year Treasury Bond Yield(%)3.68%Company Specific Beta1.26Equity Risk Premium(%)7.00%Cost of Common Equity12.50%Market Capitalization and After Tax Weighted Average Cost of CapitalCurrent YieldAfter Tax YieldMarket Value%CapitalizationWACC YieldLong-Term De

6、bt5.35%3.89%24,511.6636.15%1.40%Perferred Stock0.00%0.000.00%0.00%Common Stock12.50%12.50%43,292.5663.85%7.98%67,804.22100.00%9.39%Comparason with industryTRREPS Growth%Dividend Ratio%P/EEPS/EP/AP/C#DIV/0!#DIV/0!万万科科1.2320.00%0.89%16.9314.49%2.228.71保保利利地地产产0.8012.00%0.81%15.9914.00%1.716.15EPS grow

7、th indexYear2009200820072006EPS1.060.911.300.66E7.135.749.736.61EPS/E15%16%13%10%EPS Growth%16%-30%97%EPS/E AVG.14%EPS CAGR13%QuarterlyQ4Q3Q2Q1Q409Q3Q2EPS growth%23%16%-2%5%Sales growth indexYearly2009200820072006Sales27,744.5020,245.5013,617.5011,188.00Growth%37%49%22%CAGR25%QuarterlyQ4Q3Q2Q1Q409Q3

8、Q2Sales growth%66%37%21%12%RES growth indexYearly2009200820072006Retained Earnings7,286.324,826.512,673.481,189.59Shares outstanding3,519.722,452.341,226.17550.00RES2.071.972.182.16Growth%5%-10%1%CAGR-2%QuarterlyQ4Q3Q2Q1Q409Q3Q2Retained Earnings7,482.487,286.325,553.725,163.15Shares outstanding3,519

9、.723,519.723,519.723,188.05RES#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2.132.071.581.62Growth%8%5%0%10%Q1Q409Q3Q2419.703419.703251.752251.7527,062.786,866.625,301.974,911.407,482.487,286.325,553.725,163.153,519.723,519.723,519.723,188.052.132.071.581.62E/AOM/SMShare outstanding26.27%36.72%10,995.2123.30%34.88%4,575.64Q

10、115%Q12%Q1Q408Q3Q2Q14,832.474,826.513,854.923,621.662,863.692,452.342,452.342,452.342,452.342,452.341.971.971.571.481.1769%Q1Q408Q3Q2Q1251.752251.75208.48208.48208.484,580.724,574.763,646.443,413.182,655.214,832.474,826.513,854.923,621.662,863.692,452.342,452.342,452.342,452.342,452.341.971.971.571.

11、481.17Latest Year200920082007Revenue(mil)22,986.6115,519.908,115.23Growth48%91%CAGR41%Est.growth rate3019%10 years growth forecastYearReve.Rev.growthGrowth rate%200922,986.61201029,882.596,895.9830.00%3150135651201139,146.209,263.6031.00%2896347074201248,932.759,786.5525.00%2873335917201361,165.9312

12、,233.1925.00%29732.3339547.33201475,234.1014,068.1623.00%201592,537.9417,303.8423.00%2016111,970.9119,432.9721.00%2017135,484.8023,513.8921.00%2018161,226.9125,742.1119.00%2019191,860.0230,633.1119.00%3years ROA recordYearRev.AssetRev./Asset200922,986.6189,830.7225.59%200815,519.9053,632.1628.94%200

13、78,115.2340,894.6619.84%AVG.24.79%3years Equity/Asset recordYearE/A200927.93%200826.25%200729.16%AVG.27.78%10 years growth forecastYearReve.Rev./AssetAssetE/AEquity200922,986.6125,088.24201029,882.5924.79%120,541.7927.78%33,486.83201139,146.2024.79%157,909.7427.78%43,867.75201248,932.7524.79%197,387

14、.1827.78%54,834.68201361,165.9324.79%246,733.9727.78%68,543.36201475,234.1024.79%303,482.7827.78%84,308.33201592,537.9424.79%373,283.8227.78%103,699.242016111,970.9124.79%451,673.4327.78%125,476.082017135,484.8024.79%546,524.8527.78%151,826.062018161,226.9124.79%650,364.5727.78%180,673.012019191,860

15、.0224.79%773,933.8427.78%215,000.883years NOPM recordYearReve.CGSSGAR&DNOPNOPM200922,986.6114,524.06590.78456.727,415.0532.26%200815,519.909,188.23462.40311.215,558.0635.81%20078,115.234,991.10255.60208.212,660.3232.78%Avg.NOPM33.62%10 years growth forecastYearReve.NOPMNOP est.200922,986.61201029,88

16、2.5933.62%10,045.77201139,146.2033.62%13,159.96201248,932.7533.62%16,449.95201361,165.9333.62%20,562.44201475,234.1033.62%25,291.80201592,537.9433.62%31,108.922016111,970.9133.62%37,641.792017135,484.8033.62%45,546.572018161,226.9133.62%54,200.412019191,860.0233.62%64,498.49Tax rate record in the pa

17、stYearRev.before taxtaxtax rate20095,379.051,371.3225.49%20084,023.28979.6124.35%20072,403.09774.8232.24%Avg.27.36%10 years growth forecastYearNOPTax rateTaxNOPAT20097,415.0525.49%1890.375,524.68201010,045.7727.36%2,748.697,297.08201113,159.9627.36%3,600.789,559.18201216,449.9527.36%4,500.9811,948.9

18、8201320,562.4427.36%5,626.2214,936.22201425,291.8027.36%6,920.2518,371.55201531,108.9227.36%8,511.9122,597.01201637,641.7927.36%10,299.4127,342.38201745,546.5727.36%12,462.2933,084.28201854,200.4127.36%14,830.1239,370.29201964,498.4927.36%17,647.8446,850.6510 years RE forecastShares Outstanding(mil.

19、)3,519.72YearNOPATCost of Common EquityEquityRERE/Share20095,524.6812.50%25,088.2420107,297.0812.50%33,486.834,161.061.1820119,559.1812.50%43,867.755,373.331.53201211,948.9812.50%54,834.686,465.511.84201314,936.2212.50%68,543.368,081.882.30201418,371.5512.50%84,308.339,803.632.79201522,597.0112.50%1

20、03,699.2412,058.473.43201627,342.3812.50%125,476.0814,379.974.09201733,084.2812.50%151,826.0617,399.774.94201839,370.2912.50%180,673.0120,392.035.79201946,850.6512.50%215,000.8824,266.526.893year invest&depreciation recordYearRev.InvestInvest%Depre.Depre.%Net invest200922,986.6137.700.16%47.060.20%-

21、9.36200815,519.9023.990.15%19.240.12%4.7520078,115.2329.190.36%11.810.15%17.38Avg.0.23%0.16%10 years growth forecastYearRev.InvestDepre.Net invest2009201029,882.5967.5647.2420.33201139,146.2088.5161.8826.63201248,932.75110.6377.3533.28201361,165.93138.2996.6941.60201475,234.10170.10118.9351.17201592

22、,537.94209.22146.2862.942016111,970.91253.16177.0076.162017135,484.80306.32214.1792.152018161,226.91364.52254.86109.662019191,860.02433.78303.28130.50Working capital record in the pastYearRev.Acc.Rece.InventoryAcc.Pay.Working Cap.Wor.Cap.%200922,986.61467.0560,098.922,721.1457,844.83251.65%200815,51

23、9.90205.5540,195.622,414.3537,986.82244.76%20078,115.23175.2528,084.371,113.1327,146.49334.51%Avg.276.97%10 years growth forecastYearReve.Rev.growthWor.Cap.200922,986.61201029,882.596,895.9819,100.05201139,146.209,263.6025,657.73201248,932.759,786.5527,106.15201361,165.9312,233.1933,882.69201475,234

24、.1014,068.1638,965.10201592,537.9417,303.8447,927.072016111,970.9119,432.9753,824.182017135,484.8023,513.8965,127.262018161,226.9125,742.1171,298.842019191,860.0230,633.1184,845.62Disc.Eccess Return Period FCFF-136,845.26Disc.Residual Value258,633.67Short-Term Assets88,504.16Total Corporate Value210

25、,292.57RE growth2%Total Corporate Value210,292.57Less Debt24,511.66Less Perferred Stocks0.00Less Short-Term Liabilities38,233.62Total Value to Common Equity147,547.29Intrinsic Stock Value assessed by DCF41.9210 years growth forecastYearReve.NOPATNet investWor.Cap.FCFF200922,986.61201029,882.597,297.

26、0820.3319,100.05-11,823.29201139,146.209,559.1826.6325,657.73-16,125.18201248,932.7511,948.9833.2827,106.15-15,190.46201361,165.9314,936.2241.6033,882.69-18,988.07201475,234.1018,371.5551.1738,965.10-20,644.72201592,537.9422,597.0162.9447,927.07-25,393.002016111,970.9127,342.3876.1653,824.18-26,557.

27、962017135,484.8033,084.2892.1565,127.26-32,135.132018161,226.9139,370.29109.6671,298.84-32,038.212019191,860.0246,850.65130.5084,845.62-38,125.472020191,860.0246,850.6500634,313.59Intrinsic Stock Value assessed by DRECost of Common Equity12.50%YearEquity/shareRE/shareDiscount FactorDiscounted RE2009

28、7.1320101.180.91421.0820111.530.83571.2820121.840.76401.4020132.300.69851.6020142.790.63851.7820153.430.58382.0020164.090.53372.1820174.940.48792.4120185.790.44602.5820196.890.40772.8165.660.407726.77Intrinsic Stock Value assessed by DRE53.03Discount FactorDiscounted FCFF0.9142-10,808.770.8357-13,476.610.7640-11,606.070.6985-13,262.740.6385-13,182.550.5838-14,823.220.5337-14,172.990.4879-15,677.790.4460-14,289.310.4077-15,545.200.4077258,633.67