Policy(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布拉德某汽车·yif.pptx
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1、CHAPTER 13Stabilization Policy1Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.QuestionsWhat principles should guide stabilization policy?What aspects of stabilization policy do economists argue about today?Is monetary policy or fiscal policy more effective as a stabilization pol
2、icy?How does uncertainty affect the way stabilization policy should be made?2Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.QuestionsHow long are lags associated with stabilization policy?Is it better for stabilization policy to be conducted according to fixed rules or to be con
3、ducted by authorities with substantial discretion?3Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Government PolicyThere are two kinds of government policyfiscal policyshifts the IS curvemonetary policyshifts the LM curveThe government uses policy to stabilize the macroeconomy b
4、y minimizing the impact of shocks4Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Monetary Policy InstitutionsMonetary policy in the U.S.is made by the Federal Reserve which is the central bankthe principal policy-making body of the Federal Reserve system is the Federal Open Mark
5、et Committee(FOMC)the FOMC lowers and raises interest rates and increases and decreases the money supply5Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Monetary Policy InstitutionsThe Federal Reserve has a central office and 12 regional officesthe central office is the Board of
6、Governors in Washington,DCthe 12 regional offices are the 12 Federal reserve banks scattered around the U.S.the members of the Board of Governors and the Presidents of the regional Federal Reserve Banks make up the FOMC6Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 13.1-
7、Structure of the FederalReserve System7Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 13.2-Composition of the Federal Open Market Committee8Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Monetary Policy InstitutionsThe FOMC meets approximately once a
8、month to set interest ratesemergency meetings can also be scheduled on short noticeWhen the FOMC decides on a policy change,it is implemented immediatelyit takes only minutes for interest rates to shift in response to FOMC actions9Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.M
9、onetary Policy InstitutionsThe FOMC changes interest rates by carrying out open-market operationsin an expansionary open-market operation,the Federal Reserve buys government bonds,increasing bank reserves,and lowering interest ratesin a contractionary open-market operation,the Federal Reserve sells
10、government bonds,decreasing bank reserves,and raising interest rates10Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Monetary Policy InstitutionsThe Federal Reserve can also alter interest rates in two other waysthe Board of Governors can alter legally required bank reservesthe
11、Board of Governors can lend money directly to financial institutionsThese tools are used very rarely11Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Fiscal Policy InstitutionsFiscal policy in the U.S.is managed by Congressthe Congress creates the tax laws that determine the amou
12、nt of taxes imposed by the federal governmentthe Congresss spending bills determine the level of government purchasesTax and spending levels are set through a process called the budget cycle12Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 13.4-The Budget Process13Copyrigh
13、t 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Government ExpendituresMandatory expenditures include spending for Social Security,Medicare,Medicaid,unemployment insurance,and food stampsDiscretionary expenditures must be appropriated each year by Congressthese include defense spending,N
14、ASA,highway spending,education spending,and so forth 14Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 13.5-Major Federal Government Expenditures by Category,1960-200015Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 13.6-Federal Government Discr
15、etionary Spending,Excluding Defense(2000)16Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Fiscal Policy InstitutionsBecause of the way the budget process is set up,making fiscal policy in the U.S.is complicated and time-consumingthe time between when a policy proposal is made an
16、d when it becomes effective(the inside lag)can take yearsthe inside lag associated with monetary policy changes can be measured in days or weeks17Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The History of Economic PolicyThe Employment Act of 1946established Congresss Joint Ec
17、onomic Committee and the Presidents Council of Economic Advisorscalled on the President to estimate and forecast the current and future level of economic activity in the U.S.announced that it was the responsibility of the federal government to foster and promote free enterprise and the general welfa
18、re18Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The History of Economic PolicyBefore the Great Depression,the general belief was that the government could not stabilize the economy and should not try to do soIt was largely due to the writings of John Maynard Keynes that econo
19、mists and politicians became convinced that governments could halt depressions and smooth out the business cycle19Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The History of Economic PolicyBecause of the low and stable inflation and unemployment rates of the 1960s,economists a
20、nd politicians thought that the business cycle was deadHowever,in the 1970s,expected inflation rose and the Phillips curve shifted upthe result was stagflation20Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 13.7-The U.S.Phillips Curve(s),1955-198021Copyright 2002 by The
21、McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The History of Economic PolicyBy the end of the 1970s,many economists were convinced that active monetary policy did more harm than goodthey argued that the U.S.would be better off with an“automatic”monetary policy one idea is to fix the money stock to a
22、 stable long-run growth paththe instability of velocity has reduced the number of advocates of this policy22Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 13.8-The Velocity of Money before 198023Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Power
23、 and Limits of Stabilization PolicyEconomists today have varied views as to how the central bank and fiscal authorities should manage the economysome(such as Milton Friedman)feel that activist attempts to manage the economy are likely to do more harm than goodsome believe that the appropriate govern
24、ment policy can do a lot to stabilize the economy after shocks occur24Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Power and Limits of Stabilization PolicyEven the most activist of economists recognize the limits of stabilization policystabilization policy requires us to k
25、now where the economy is and where it is goinguse large-scale macroeconomic models to forecast the futuresearch for leading indicatorsthe level of the stock market is often used25Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Lucas CritiqueExpectations of the future affect d
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