中国城镇基本养老保险制度可持续性现状-SPRP-CN-Index.ppt

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1、中国城镇基本养老保险制度财务可持续性研究The Financial Sustainability of Urban Basic Old Age Insurance System in China中国社科院世界社保研究中心中国社科院世界社保研究中心Centre for International Social Security Studies(CISS),Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(CASS)2016年北京 负责人：郑秉文 教授Dir.&Prof.:Zheng Bingwen 2016年9月 September 2016（一）背景介绍：中国城镇基本养老保

2、险制度改革三重任务叠加；The historical background of Urban Basic Old Age Insurance System Reform（二）问题表现：中国城镇基本养老保险制度可持续性现状的六个突出问题；The financial sustainability status quo of basic old age insurance system（三）收支预测：2015-2050年中国城镇基本养老保险制度运行的预测；Prediction of fund revenues and expenditures：from 2015 to 2050（四）经验借鉴：欧盟国

3、家公共养老金制度改革经验；EU public pension system reform and its experiences（五）政策建议：如何完善中国城镇基本养老保险制度；Policy proposals on improving Urban Basic pension insurance system研究报告基本框架：五个部分Overall Framework of the project:Five Parts（一）中国城镇基本养老保险制度正处于待遇上调最快、财政补贴最多的历史时期；The pension system is in the period of rising pensio

4、n benefits and substantial financial subsidies 1.待遇上调很快：2005-2015年过去11年内养老金连年上调，从未间断，每年上调10%，全国人均退休金从2005年的每月714元提高到2014年的2100元，人均提高两倍多；From 2005 to 2015,the pension growth rate is keeping 10 percent,which make the average pension growing from 714 Yuan per month in 2005 to 2100 Yuan per month in 201

5、4.2.财政补贴最多：过去11年也是财政补贴最多和增长最快的历史时期，从2005年的544亿元，增加到2015年的4716亿元，11年增加8.67倍。Financial subsidies have rised from 54.4 billion Yuan in 2005 to 471.6 billion Yuan in 2015.一、中国城镇基本养老保险制度改革背景The historical background of Urban Basic Old Age Insurance System Reform（二）中国城镇基本养老保险制度处于三重任务叠加的巨大压力之中；Urban basic

6、pension system is under the great pressure of three stacked tasks中国城镇基本养老保险制度尚处于制度参数调整、制度结构改革、各子制度必须尽快建立的三项任务叠加和交织的巨大压力之中；“制度参数调整”包括：退休年龄继续提高；降低社会保险费率；system parameter adjustment:Raise retirement age；Reduce contribution rate of social insurance；“制度结构改革”指做实个人账户试点难以为继，如何完善个人账户以优化结构；structural reform o

7、f pension system:how to improve individual accounts；尽快建立子制度是指机关事业单位养老保险深化改革、建立养老保险基金投资体制和正常待遇水平调整机制等；The establishment of some sub systems:the normal pension adjustment mechanism and pension fund investment system need to be set up as soon as possible；一、中国城镇基本养老保险制度改革背景：三重任务叠加The Historical Backgrou

8、nd of Urban Basic Old Age Insurance System Reform（一）制度的收入能力低下（Low income ability of pension system）制度激励性不好导致缴费收入能力很弱，主要体现在：The negative incentive of pension system 实际费率低于规定的法定缴费率（actual contribution rate is lower than the statutory contribution rate）费基小于真实费基(The contribution base is smaller than the

9、 real contribution base)用上一年社会平均工资作为核算基数(use the average social wage of last year as accounting base)（二）抵御老龄化自动平衡机制缺位（The absence of automatic balance mechanism to resist aging population）DB型现收现付的社会统筹部分尚未建立起参数自动调节机制 The absence of automatic adjustment mechanism in the social pooling system DC型完全积累制的

10、个人账户计发月数表并未随着预期寿命的变化进行动态调整 The pension devisor in the individual account system has not adjusted dynamically with the increasing life expectancy二、中国城镇基本养老保险制度可持续性现状：六大突出问题The Financial Sustainability Status Quo of Old Age Insurance System （三）社会统筹部分可持续性问题日益突显The sustainability of social pooling is in

11、creasingly highlighted 统筹层次低，成为吸入财政补贴不可估量的无底洞 Low pooling level requires large amount of financial subsidies；较低的统筹层次不利于建立基金投资体制 Low pooling level cant help to set up fund investment system；二、中国城镇基本养老保险制度可持续性现状：六大突出问题The Financial Sustainability Status Quo of Old Age Insurance System（四）个人账户制度设计存在先天缺陷

12、 The birth defects of individual account 个人账户设计上的天生缺陷，使其需要财政的间接兜底 The individual account cannot live without financial transfer参保人提前死亡的，个人账户资产可以继承，超过平均余命的长寿者可领取账户养老金直到死亡 if the participants die earlier,the fund assets in the individual account can be inherited.And if they live longer than the averag

13、e life expectancy,they can receive the pension benefits to death.个人账户长期以来难以做实 It is difficult to fully fund individual account；2013年底，空账规模已经达到30955亿元，而做实账户仅为4154亿元；The empty account has reached 3.09 trillion Yuan at the end of 2013,and the real account assets are 415.4 billion Yuan.二、中国城镇基本养老保险制度可持续

14、性现状：六大突出问题The Financial Sustainability Status Quo of Old Age Insurance System二、中国城镇基本养老保险制度可持续性现状：六大突出问题The Financial Sustainability Status Quo of Old Age Insurance System（五）管理体制不顺影响制度的财务能力Disorder Management System affects financial capacity 养老保险费双重征缴制度并存（税务部门和社保经办机构），导致收入不能到位 The coexist of double

15、 collection system leads to insufficient income （by the tax authorities or social insurance agency organizations)社保经办机构属地化管理不利于提高统筹层次 social insurance agency organizations are administrated by the local administrators,which reduce the efficiency of the system（六）基本养老保险制度一支独大财务压力巨大workers put excessiv

16、e reliance on the basic old age insurance governed by the government三、中国城镇基本养老保险制度运行的预测Prediction and Evaluation to urban basic Old Age Insurance System Operation（一）基本假设/Hypothesis 1.城镇化率从2013年的53.7%逐步增长至2050年的75%。到2050年，人口城镇化率达到峰值；Urbanization rate will gradually increase from the 53.7 percent to 7

17、5 percent in 2050 and it peaks at that point.2.GDP实际增长率由2014年的7.5%降至2050年的4.3%，财政收入占GDP的比例由2013年的22.7%逐步提高到2030年的25%后保持稳定，因此财政收入增长率从2014年的10.15%降至2050年的6.28%；Assuming the actual GDP growth rate will drop from 7.5%in 2014 to 4.3%in 2050.It is forecasted and assumed that the proportion of fiscal reven

18、ue accounting for GDP will gradually increase from 22.7%in 2013 to 25%in 2030,and then will remain stable afterwards,from which,it can be calculated that the fiscal revenue growth rate will drop from 10.15%in 2014 to 6.28%in 2050.3.在岗职工平均工资增长率从2014年的9.36%降至2050年的6.71%；It is calculated and assumed th

19、at the growth rate of average salary of staff in post will drop from 9.36%in 2014 to 6.71%in 2050.三、中国城镇基本养老保险制度运行的预测 Prediction and Evaluation to Urban basic old Age Insurance system Operation（一）基本假设/Hypothesis4.个人账户记账利率等于在岗职工平均工资增长率,将从2015年的10.01%下降到2050年的6.71%；It is assumed that accounting intere

20、st rate of Individual Pension Account equals the growth rate of average salary of staff in post in the previous year,which will decrease from 10.01%in 2015 to 6.71%in 2050.5.从2018年开始提高退休年龄，女性与男性同时推迟退休年龄，女性工人每2年提高1岁，女性干部和所有男性职工每4年提高1岁，到2037年女性退休年龄为60岁、男性为65岁；Increasing the retirement age from 2018,to

21、 delay the retirement age for female and male at the same time,increase the retirement age of female workers by 12 months every 2 years,and increase the retirement age of female cadres and all male workers by 12 month every 4 years;by 2037,the retirement age for female will reach 60 years old,and th

22、e retirement age for male will be 65 years old.6.账户基金制度累计结余的投资收益率为7%；Assuming rate of return of accumulated balance of Urban Basic Pension system is 7%.三、中国城镇基本养老保险制度运行的预测Prediction and Evaluation to Urban basic old Age Insurance system Operation（二）城镇企业职工基本养老保险制度运行的预测Demographics of enterprise emplo

23、yees basic pension system 表1 2015-2050年城镇职工基本养老保险制度抚养比预测年份年份201520182020202420302037204020452050抚养比1:3.11:3.41:3.61:3.71:3.41:2.91:2.61:2.41:1.8资料来源：精算团队提供的数据。Table1 Dependency Ratio of enterprise employees Pension system（prediction value,2015 to 2050,%）年份年份201520182020202420302037204020452050Depend

24、ency Ratio1:3.11:3.41:3.61:3.71:3.41:2.91:2.61:2.41:1.8三、中国城镇基本养老保险制度运行的预测Financial Sustainability Prediction of Enterprise Employee s Basic Pension System 基金收入：持续增加，2020年以前基金收入增长速度保持在14%左右，之后基金收入规模扩张速度放缓，占当期财政收入的比重从2020年的21.02%上升到2035年的23.87%，之后缓慢下降到2050年的22.97%。Revenue.In the calculation period,th

25、e fund revenue will keep increasing.Before 2020,the growth rate of fund revenue will keep at 14%and then the growth is slow down.Fund revenue will account for 17%to 24%of homochronous fiscal revenue.The ratio will increase from 21.02%in 2020 to 23.87%in 2035,and then gradually decrease to 22.97%in 2

26、050.基金支出：2030年之前，基金支出占当年财政收入缓慢上升，之后制度赡养率上升并处于高位，基金支出规模开始扩大，其占当期财政收入的比例快速上升到2050年的24.13%。Expenditure.Fund expenditures will account for 13%24%of homochronous fiscal revenue.Before 2030,the ratio increase gradually.And then the dependency ratio is at the high level,the fund expenditures begin to expan

27、d and the ration will increase to 24.13%in 2050.三、中国城镇基本养老保险制度运行的预测Financial Sustainability Prediction of Enterprise Employee s Basic Pension System 图1 2015-2050年城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支预测 资料来源：根据精算团队提供的数据。Figure1 Fund Revenue and expenditure of Enterprise Employees Basic Pension System三、中国城镇基本养老保险制度运行的预测Pred

28、iction and Evaluation to Urban basic old Age Insurance system Operation（三）机关事业单位基本养老保险制度运行的预测Prediction and Evaluation to GOPI(government organs and public institutions)Pension System Operation 表1 2015-2050年机关事业单位在职人员预测 单位：万人分类分类20152020202520302035204020452050在职人数3791.03791.03848.34121.44173.64210.

29、64228.84220.7退休人数1628.31729.11799.71898.51971.12107.62308.02550.7资料来源：张盈华，机关事业单位“名义账户”制养老保险及其长期财务可持续性分析，载开发研究，2015年第3期，第8页。Table 1 Demographic Prediction of GOPI（2015 to 2090,10 thousand）20152020202520302035204020452050Staff in post3791.03791.03848.34121.44173.64210.64228.84220.7Retirees1628.31729.1

30、1799.71898.51971.12107.62308.02550.7Source:Zhang Yinghua,Notional Defined Contribution Pension System of GOPI and Analysis on its Long-term Fiscal Sustainability,Research on Development,NO.3,2015:p.8.三、中国城镇基本养老保险制度运行的预测Prediction and Evaluation to Urban basic old Age Insurance system Operation（三）机关事

31、业单位基本养老保险制度运行的预测 表2 2015-2050年机关事业单位和企业的养老保险制度赡养率比较分类分类20152020202520302035204020452050机关事业43.045.646.846.147.250.154.660.4企业32.227.527.029.132.938.344.653.4结论：因机关事业单位招募条件较严格，要求应征者具备较高学历水平，机关事业单位的内部赡养率明显高于企业Prediction and Evaluation to GOPI(government organs and public institutions)Pension System Op

32、eration Table 2 Dependency Ratio of GOPI or Urban Enterprise Pension system分类分类20152020202520302035204020452050GOPI43.045.646.846.147.250.154.660.4Enterprises employees32.227.527.029.132.938.344.653.4Conclusion：The dependency Ratio of GOPI is higher than enterprises employees old age insurance.三、中国城

33、镇基本养老保险制度运行的预测Prediction and Evaluation to Urban basic old Age Insurance system Operation(三)机关事业单位制度基金收支预测/Prediction and Evaluation to GOPI 基金收入：持续增加，各年基金收入占当年财政收入比在4-6%之间。2050年之前，机关事业单位在编人数扩增，基金收入规模扩张速度较快，占当年财政收入的比例从4%升至5.5%；Revenue.In the calculation period,the fund revenue will keep increasing,b

34、ut the growth rate will increase first and then decrease.The growth rate of fund revenue will be constant at 7%between 2040 and 2046,and it will decrease to 6.8%in 2050(see Figure 2).Besides,fund revenue will account for 4%6%of homochronous fiscal revenue.Before 2050,the ratio will rise from 4%to 5.

35、5%,after 2050,it will rise slightly from 5.5%to 6%,primarily as a result of expectation that the permanent staff of GOPI will increase first and decrease.基金支出：先减后增，各年基金支出占当年财政收入比在4-9%之间。在2035年之前，延退政策抑制领取待遇人数扩增的速度，基金支出占当年财政收入比重下降；2035年之后，延退过渡期结束，加之制度赡养率上升并处于高位，基金支出规模开始扩大；Expenditure.In the calculatio

36、n period,fund expenditure will decrease first and then increase,which will account for 4%9%of the homochronous fiscal revenue.The growth rate of fund expenditure will be about 7%,and after 2034,the rate will increase from 8.1%in 2034 to 11.4%in 2041.Before 2035,the delay retirement policy restrains

37、the growth in the number of beneficiaries,and the ratio of fund expenditure to homochronous fiscal revenue drops;after 2035,the transition period of delay retirement will be over,and the dependency ratio will rise and remain high,the scale of the fund expenditure will begin to三、中国城镇基本养老保险制度运行的预测Pred

38、iction and Evaluation to urban basic Old Age Insurance System Operation资料来源：根据精算团队提供的数据绘制而成。Figure 2 The fund revenue and fund expenditure of GOPI(%)图2 机关事业单位基金收支预测(%)三、中国城镇基本养老保险制度运行的预测Prediction and Evaluation to urban basic Old Age Insurance System Operation 历史债务：即转轨成本，是原有制度下所积累的养老金权益的折现值，包括“老人”的

39、退休金和“中人”视同缴费的账户价值。各年分摊的历史债务占当年财政收入的比重逐年下降，大约每10年下降一个百分点；History Debts of the system.That is Transition Cost of pension system which equals to the current value of the pension rights and interests accumulated under the old system,including two parts of the“old workers”pension expenditure and“transiti

40、on workers”pension expenditure which is corresponding to deemed contribution.The history debts will be shared year by year,which declines by one percentage point approximately every 10 year.Table3 The proportion of history debts in homochronous fiscal revenue（in 2015 to 2050,%）图3 2015-2050年机关事业单位制度历

41、史债务占同期财政收入的比重样本国家：德国、瑞典、法国和西班牙Sample Countries:Sweden、Germany、France and Spain（1）政府负责的DB制度待遇水平将合理下降Pension Benefits of DB plan will reduce gradually（2）提高法定退休年龄，逐渐实现男女同龄退休Raise retirement age,gradually realizing the equal retirement age of men and female（3）建立奖惩机制，通过惩罚提前退休、奖励延迟退休，充分发挥人力资本作用。Establish

42、the Rewards and Punishments Mechanism linked with legal Retirement Age（4）运用精算技术修正制度参数，双重约束下引入人口老龄化因子建立财务自我反馈机制，增强财务可持续Establish Financial Balance Mechanism via introducing the aging population factor（5）发挥市场机制作用，逐步从单一的公共养老金制度模式向多层次养老保险制度体系迈进Make full use of market mechanism to push the pension system

43、 from a single mode to multiple-level pension system 四、欧盟国家公共养老金制度改革的经验借鉴 EU Public Pension System Reform and Its Experiences（1）降低社会保险费率，合理确定缴费基数Reduce the contribution rate of old age insurance and establish the reasonable contribution base（2）推进实现全国统筹，增强制度的便携性Promote National Pooling as soon as pos

44、sible to Enhance the Portability of Urban Basic Old Age Insurance System（3）坚持精算平衡原则，增强制度财务可持续性Enhance the Financial Sustainability of Basic Pension System via the principle of Actuarial Balance 采用长期精算技术，合理确定制度参数，例如，记账利率和计发月数Taking long-term actuarial technology and use reasonable system parameters,s

45、uch as,accounting rate 建立正常养老金调整机制，以适应新常态Establish Normal Pension Adjustment Mechanism Adapting to Chinas New Normal 渐进式延迟退休年龄，构建奖惩机制Delay Legal Retirement Age and Construct Rewards and Punishment Mechanism 五、完善城镇基本养老保险制度的政策建议Policy Proposals on Improving Urban Basic pension Insurance System（4）继续深化制

46、度结构改革，完善个人账户制度以健全多缴多得的激励机制 Reform the system structure and improve individual Accounts 建议将目前社会统筹和个人账户简单相加的统账结合改造成“混合型统账结合”，扩大个人账户的规模；It is useful to change the current pension system into hybrid social pooling and individual accounts.Expand the scale of individual account（5）引入和发挥市场机制的作用，高度重视其他支柱的发展G

47、ive full use of market mechanism and pay more attention to other pillars 五、完善城镇基本养老保险制度的政策建议Policy Proposals on Improving Urban Basic pension Insurance System 提高基本养老保险基金的投资运营绩效Enhance fund investment operation performance of basic old age insurance 充分利用市场机制，发挥第二、三支柱制度的保障功能Improve the second and third pillar to move the single system model towards multiple-level pension system;