宏观经济学及财务知识分析规划综合egyy.pptx

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1、CHAPTER 2Measuring the Macroeconomy1Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.QuestionsWhat key data do macroeconomists look at?How are key macroeconomic data estimated and calculated?What is the difference between“nominal”and“real”values?How are stock market values related

2、 to interest rates?2Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.QuestionsHow are interest rates related to the price level and the inflation rate?How is unemployment related to total production?What is right-and what is wrong-with the key measure of economic activity,real GDP

3、?3Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Importance of DataEconomists use quantitative data to examine and understand behaviorpricesquantitiesvaluesData can be used in two waysmake quantitative forecaststest economic theories4Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Compani

4、es,Inc.All rights reserved.Most Important Macroeconomic Datareal GDPthe unemployment ratethe inflation ratethe interest ratethe level of the stock marketthe exchange rate5Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Table 2.1-The Six Key Economic Variables6Copyright 2002 by Th

5、e McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Exchange RateThe nominal exchange rate is the relative price of two different currenciesdetermined in the foreign exchange marketExample1.00 equals$1.20$1.00 equals 0.837Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Exchan

6、ge RateDomestic exporters earn foreign currency when they export productsneed to trade the foreign currency for dollarsForeign producers earn dollars when U.S.residents import their productsneed to trade the dollars for foreign currency8Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights rese

7、rved.Figure 2.1-The Market for Foreign Exchange9Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Exchange RateThe real exchange rate is the nominal exchange rate adjusted for changes in the value of the currencydepends on the nominal exchange rate and the price level10Copyrigh

8、t 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Exchange RateExample 1nominal exchange rate changes from$1.20=1.00 to$2.40=1.00price level doublesreal exchange rate is unchangedExample 2nominal exchange rate remains at the same level($1.20=1.00)price level doublesreal exchange rate f

9、alls by half11Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Exchange RateExample 3nominal exchange rate increases from$1.20=1.00 to$2.30=1.00price level remains the samereal exchange rate doubles12Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Excha

10、nge RateTo calculate the real exchange rate(),you need three pieces of informationprice level in the home country(P)price level abroad(P*)nominal exchange rate(e)13Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Exchange RateThere are many different currencies in the worldman

11、y different exchange ratesEconomists construct an exchange rate index to represent“the”exchange rateeach country receives a weight equal to its share of total U.S.trade14Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Exchange RateThe exchange rate index is by averaging each

12、countrys current exchange rate relative to its exchange rate in the base year(1992)15Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 2.2-The Exchange Rate Index,1992-199816Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Stock MarketThe most represen

13、tative index of the U.S.stock market is the Standard and Poors Composite Index(S&P 500)The most commonly discussed index of the U.S.stock market is the Dow-Jones Industrial Average17Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Stock MarketStock market averages are in nomin

14、al termsmust divide by some measure of the price level to get the real value of the stock marketThe real value of the stock market is a sensitive indicator of the relative optimism or pessimism of investorscan forecast future investment spending18Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All r

15、ights reserved.The Stock MarketInvestors face a choice between holding stocks and holding bondsstocks are shares of ownership of a corporationentitles you to a portion of the companys profitsbonds are debts that the corporation owes youpays periodic interest payments and returns principal to you at

16、maturity19Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Stock MarketRates of returnfor bonds,the rate of return is the interest rate(r)for stocks,the rate of return is the ratio of earnings per share(Es)to the price paid(Ps)Stocks are riskyinvestors may require a risk premi

17、um(s)20Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Stock MarketInvestors will hold only stocks ifInvestors will hold only bonds if21Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Stock MarketInvestors will hold both stocks and bonds ifThis means t

18、hat the value of a stock is equal to22Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Stock MarketHow can we measure Es?newspaper reports what the firms accountants have calculated(Ea)investors are interested in some long-run average of expected future earnings(Es)need an est

19、imate of the relationship between Ea and Es23Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 2.3-Calculating the Value of aBasket of Stocks24Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Stock Marketprovides information onthe current level of prof

20、its(earnings)whether investors are optimistic or pessimisticthe current cost of capitalattitudes toward risk25Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Interest Rateis the price at which purchasing power can be shifted from the future into the presentis not a single lum

21、p sum,but an ongoing stream of payments made over timeis a flow variable26Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Interest RateThere is a large number of different interest rates that vary byriskdurationtax treatmentPublished interest rates are nominal interest rates2

22、7Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 2.4-The Real versus the NominalInterest Rate28Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Price Levelis most frequently measured by the Consumer Price Index(CPI)whichis calculated monthly by the B

23、ureau of Labor Statisticsis an expenditure-weighted index29Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Table 2.5-Calculating a Price Index for Fruit:An Example30Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Consumer Price IndexPrice index formula31Co

24、pyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Consumer Price IndexIn the base year,the price index will equal 10032Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Consumer Price IndexIn the subsequent year,the price index will equal 13833Copyright 2002

25、 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Kinds of Index NumbersLaspeyres indexuses relative expenditure levels in a fixed base year as weightsexample:Consumer Price IndexPaasche indexuses current,variable expenditure levels as weightsexample:GDP deflator34Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hi

26、ll Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Kinds of Index NumbersAll price indices are imperfectthe Laspeyres index overstates the effects of price increasesbased on a fixed market basketdoes not take into account that consumers substitute relatively cheaper goods for relatively more expensive goods when

27、prices rise(substitution bias)35Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Kinds of Index NumbersAll price indices are imperfectthe Paasche index understates the effects of price increasesdoes take account of substitutiondoes not take into account the fact that substituted i

28、tems are less-valued than the items they replace36Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Inflation Rateis a measure of the rate of change in the price level over timeis a flow variablecan be measured using different price indicesConsumer Price Index(CPI)GDP deflator3

29、7Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 2.5-Different Measures of U.S.Inflation,1960-200038Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Unemployment Rateis the fraction of people who want a jobare looking for a jobcannot find a jobis cal

30、culated using the Current Population Surveymonthly survey by the Bureau of Labor Statistics39Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Unemployment RateIndividuals are classified into one of four categoriesthose who are employedthose who are out of the labor force and d

31、o not want a job currentlythose who do want a job currently,but have given up looking for onethose who do want a job and are currently looking for one40Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Unemployment Rate41Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All right

32、s reserved.Figure 2.6-The U.S.Unemployment Rate since 195042Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.The Unemployment Rateis a stock variablemay underestimate the real experience of unemploymentdiscouraged workersworkers who are part-time for economic reasonsvary by demogr

33、aphic group43Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 2.7-U.S.Unemployment Rates by Demographic Group,1960-200044Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Okuns Lawdescribes the relationship between unemployment and output in the U.S.implie

34、s that a 1 percentage-point fall in unemployment is associated with an extra 2.5 percentage points of growth in real GDP45Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 2.8-Okuns Law46Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Real GDPis calculate

35、d by adding up the value of all final goods and services produced in the economyis a flow variableincludes final goods and services purchased byconsumersfirmsthe government47Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Nominal versus Real GDPNominal GDP measures current output

36、 using current-year priceschanges in nominal GDP can occur from changes in either output or pricesReal GDP measures current output using prices from a base yearchanges in real GDP can only occur if output changes48Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Nominal versus Rea

37、l GDPExample49Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Base YearNominal GDP=$10.00Real GDP=$10.00Current YearNominal GDP=$13.10Real GDP=$11.50Nominal versus Real GDP50Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.More on GDPIntermediate goodsare goods

38、 sold to a firm for use in further productionare excluded from GDPChanges in inventoriesare counted as part of investmentImputationsare made for goods and services not sold through markets51Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Components of Real GDP(Y)Consumption(C)Inv

39、estment(I)residential structuresnon-residential structuresproducers durable equipmentchanges in business inventoriesGovernment purchases(G)Net exports(NX)52Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Table 2.8-Components of GDP,Third Quarter of 200053Copyright 2002 by The McG

40、raw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.What Is and Is Not in GDP Included in GDP(but should not be)replacement of worn-out or obsolete capitalgovernment purchases which could be counted as intermediate goodsNot included in GDP(but should be)household productiondepletion of scarce natural resourc

41、es“bads”54Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Figure 2.9-Labor Force Participation Ratesby Gender,1948-199655Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Chapter SummaryBecause goods and services are bought and sold with prices attached,economis

42、ts have a lot of quantitative data to work withThe real exchange rate is the relative price at which two countries goods exchange for each othercalculated by adjusting the nominal exchange rate for changes in the price levels of the two countries56Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All

43、rights reserved.Chapter SummaryThe level of the stock market reflects the variables which affect investmentcurrent profitsinvestors optimism or pessimismthe real rate of interestattitudes toward riskThe real interest rate is calculated by subtracting the inflation rate from nominal interests rates57

44、Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Chapter SummaryThe most-commonly seen measure of the price level is the Consumer Price Index(CPI)the inflation rate is the rate of change in the CPIUnemployment and output are linked through Okuns lawa 1 percentage-point decrease in

45、 the unemployment rate leads to a 2.5 percent increase in output 58Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.Chapter SummaryReal GDP is the most commonly-seen measure of the overall level of economic activitycalculated using prices from a base yearWhat is and what is not included in GDP is the result of economists beliefs in the 1940s and 1950s about what would be possible to measure easily59Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.