最新德勤-信用风险ppt课件.ppt

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1、德勤德勤-信用风险管理信用风险管理Credit Backgroundl lThorough identification and accurate Thorough identification and accurate measurement of credit risk,supported by strong measurement of credit risk,supported by strong risk management can help improve the bottom risk management can help improve the bottom linelin

2、el l.An uncertain and volatile economic.An uncertain and volatile economic environment significantly impacts this abilityenvironment significantly impacts this abilityl l.The desire to grow and turn in outstanding.The desire to grow and turn in outstanding results has a tendency to put pressure on t

3、he results has a tendency to put pressure on the checks and balances within businesseschecks and balances within businessesValue CreationBusiness Performance MeasuresPerformance-based management utilizes metrics that measure actual performance against predetermined thresholds.The thresholds are esta

4、blished taking into account the organizations strategy,operatingenvironment and process controls.The measures drive value creation and should support problem identification and correction.nBusiness StrategySystemsOperationsFinancePerformance ManagementCredit AnalysisCredit DecisionsCollectionsCREDIT

5、 POLICYRISK MANAGEMENTCredit Risk Managements Inter-related ActivitiesComplianceOriginationReportingCredit Policies&Procedures Analysis&RiskManagementGovernance,Controland ImplementationMeasurementMethodologiesTechnology&Data IntegrityCredit Strategy&Risk ToleranceA complete and coherent risk manage

6、ment A complete and coherent risk management framework contains the following elementsframework contains the following elementsCredit Risk ManagementCredit Risk ManagementA New ParadigmA new business paradigm had evolved:causing A new business paradigm had evolved:causing a lack of reliance on good

7、fundamental analysisa lack of reliance on good fundamental analysisThe idea that stock market values would The idea that stock market values would continue to go up indefinitelycontinue to go up indefinitelyIncreasingly competitive,complex and volatile Increasingly competitive,complex and volatile m

8、arket placemarket placeHigher than expected actual debt burdensHigher than expected actual debt burdensExtensive reliance on unrealistic future cash Extensive reliance on unrealistic future cash flowsflowsFailures in corporate governanceFailures in corporate governanceQuestionable personal and corpo

9、rate ethicsQuestionable personal and corporate ethicsImplications for Corporate GovernanceCurrent organization structures to be revisitedCurrent organization structures to be revisitedClarity around roles and responsibilitiesClarity around roles and responsibilitiesNeed for honesty,integrity and ind

10、ependence Need for honesty,integrity and independence(self-regulation)(self-regulation)Technical expertise of people and strong Technical expertise of people and strong management processesmanagement processesImproved disclosure requirementsImproved disclosure requirementsImportance and implementati

11、on of sanctionsImportance and implementation of sanctionsIncreased legislation and compliance Increased legislation and compliance requirementsrequirements Vision:Vision:Managing Risk/ReturnManaging Risk/ReturnPricing decisions,Performance measurement,business and customer segmentation,compensation,

12、etc.A business model view of Credit Risk Infrastructure componentsCredit Risk Management Strategic VisionDevelopment Stages Foundation StageFoundation Stage includes application of risk identification includes application of risk identification methodologies,risk scoring or rating systems and strong

13、 methodologies,risk scoring or rating systems and strong underwriting standardsunderwriting standards Basic StageBasic Stage tends to include managing on a transactional basis by tends to include managing on a transactional basis by evaluating specific attributes such as structuring,collateral and e

14、valuating specific attributes such as structuring,collateral and pricingpricing Advanced StageAdvanced Stage represents managing on a portfolio basis represents managing on a portfolio basis including aspects such as concentrations,correlations and including aspects such as concentrations,correlatio

15、ns and diversificationdiversification The Sophisticated StageThe Sophisticated Stage includes application of highly developed includes application of highly developed measurement techniques for transactions and portfolios,supported measurement techniques for transactions and portfolios,supported by

16、decision-making relating to segments or businesses against by decision-making relating to segments or businesses against established hurdle rates.established hurdle rates.Credit Risk ClarifiedCredit risk is defined as the risk of loss or potential Credit risk is defined as the risk of loss or potent

17、ial loss resulting from:loss resulting from:Default in contractual obligations by a customerDefault in contractual obligations by a customer Migration in condition and ratingMigration in condition and rating Deterioration in performance Deterioration in performance Credit risk includes both an expec

18、ted(predictable)Credit risk includes both an expected(predictable)and unexpected(volatile)loss component.and unexpected(volatile)loss component.Businesses have to contend with Expected and Unexpected LossesExpected LossesExpected Losses AnticipatedAnticipated Cost of doing businessCost of doing busi

19、ness Charged to provisionsCharged to provisions Captured in pricingCaptured in pricing Relatively easier to Relatively easier to measuremeasureAssessing expected loss Assessing expected loss includes determining includes determining exposure,default probability exposure,default probability and sever

20、ityand severityl lUnexpected LossesUnexpected Losses Unanticipated but Unanticipated but inevitableinevitable Must be planned forMust be planned for Covered by reservesCovered by reserves Allocated to businessesAllocated to businesses Difficult to measureDifficult to measurel lAssessing unexpected l

21、oss Assessing unexpected loss requires making qualitative requires making qualitative judgments around potential judgments around potential volatility of average lossesvolatility of average lossesCredit Risk Management ExplainedAlthough credit risk may be difficult to measure it is Although credit r

22、isk may be difficult to measure it is important to estimate and manageimportant to estimate and manage What does Credit Risk Management mean?What does Credit Risk Management mean?It represents an institutions ability to properly identify It represents an institutions ability to properly identify and

23、 evaluate the potential risk of default in payment of and evaluate the potential risk of default in payment of obligations of customersobligations of customers It incorporates the firms ability to effectively manage It incorporates the firms ability to effectively manage and control this exposure in

24、 a way that is consistent and control this exposure in a way that is consistent with the institutions business strategy,risk appetite with the institutions business strategy,risk appetite and credit cultureand credit cultureImportant Building BlocksEffective Credit Risk Management requiresEffective

25、Credit Risk Management requires Clear origination and underwriting standards Clear origination and underwriting standards A strong corporate and credit cultureA strong corporate and credit culture Highly developed risk measurement techniques Highly developed risk measurement techniques Ability to re

26、cognize and cover expected and unexpected Ability to recognize and cover expected and unexpected losseslosses Pricing commensurate with risks undertakenPricing commensurate with risks undertaken Methodologies to assess net profit contributions by Methodologies to assess net profit contributions by c

27、ustomers and appropriate business segmentscustomers and appropriate business segments Proper allocation of capital and management resourcesProper allocation of capital and management resourcesIn order to:In order to:Improve overall corporate performance,measured by a Improve overall corporate perfor

28、mance,measured by a higher EPS or P/E ratio(or market value)higher EPS or P/E ratio(or market value)Credit Policy and ProcessCredit Policy should be clear and conciseCredit Underwriting Standards must be developed and included in policyCredit Processes should be reasonable and allow quick response t

29、o clientsHealthy balance between sales and credit approval should exist and be respectedRisk MonitoringExposure must be complete and currentRegular reporting and updating of clients payment performance Minimum annual reviews of clients should be performedFinancial conditions should be regularly asse

30、ssedRequired action must be initiated and follow up must take placeContract Terms and DocumentationContract negotiations must take place at the Contract negotiations must take place at the right level in the organizationright level in the organizationAppropriate approvals must be obtainedAppropriate

31、 approvals must be obtainedInternal or external legal departments must Internal or external legal departments must document completelydocument completelyTerms and conditions should be understood and Terms and conditions should be understood and compliance mechanism put in placecompliance mechanism p

32、ut in placeExceptions must be reported and managed Exceptions must be reported and managed urgently to resolutionurgently to resolutionRisk Rating System EffectivenessCredit Scoring is generally used to“risk rate”homogeneous portfoliosCredit Scoring is generally used to“risk rate”homogeneous portfol

33、ios Highest applicability is in consumer and retail portfoliosHighest applicability is in consumer and retail portfolios Some advanced scoring systems are being migrated for use in rating Some advanced scoring systems are being migrated for use in rating“middle market”clients“middle market”clients S

34、uch models are only as good as the underlying assumptionsSuch models are only as good as the underlying assumptionsInternal credit rating systems are difficult to assess and are often not Internal credit rating systems are difficult to assess and are often not independently validatedindependently va

35、lidated Client relationship may interfere with objective assessment of risksClient relationship may interfere with objective assessment of risks Rating criteria usually a matter of practice rather than written policyRating criteria usually a matter of practice rather than written policy Ratings are

36、not consistent over timeRatings are not consistent over time Qualitative credit assessments often lag current market informationQualitative credit assessments often lag current market information Institutions often assumeInstitutions often assume a mapping with external ratings in order to a mapping

37、 with external ratings in order to quantify credit riskquantify credit riskEffective Risk Rating Systems Sufficient granularity of risk rating categoriesSufficient granularity of risk rating categories Accurate and timely assignment of ratings Accurate and timely assignment of ratings Clear and cons

38、istent application of default definitionClear and consistent application of default definition Periodic calibration,triangulation and validation of risk Periodic calibration,triangulation and validation of risk ratings ratings Accurate identification of migration of transactions and Accurate identif

39、ication of migration of transactions and portfolios(as reflected by upgrades and downgrades in portfolios(as reflected by upgrades and downgrades in ratings)ratings)Credit Evaluation:Financial FactorsGet the information you need to make a full analysisSome information will need to be cross-checked a

40、nd obtained on a regular and timely basisBe constructively cynical:new business models are difficult to pull offBe cognizant of delaying tacticsNumbers dont tell the whole story!Credit Evaluation:Qualitative FactorsEvaluation of subjective factors is often times Evaluation of subjective factors is o

41、ften times more important than the numerical analysismore important than the numerical analysisPeople make a business:visions,values and People make a business:visions,values and strategies are only words unless people strategies are only words unless people implement themimplement themManagement,in

42、dustry,product,geography,Management,industry,product,geography,competition etc.all influence results and must be competition etc.all influence results and must be properly assessedproperly assessedAnalysis-paralysis may lead to wrong decisionsAnalysis-paralysis may lead to wrong decisionsArt and Sci

43、ence of JudgmentGetting access to the best clients and all the relevant information is a challengeEnsuring proper analysis is done requires a strong corporate cultureUtilizing qualified resources both internally and externally enhances the resultsOften the lack of the will to act is what causes high

44、 lossesConcluding CommentsCompanies that measure and manage credit Companies that measure and manage credit risk in a pro-active manner will benefit from a risk in a pro-active manner will benefit from a favorable risk profile resulting in favorable risk profile resulting in Higher revenueHigher rev

45、enue Lower lossesLower losses Improved efficienciesImproved efficiencies Higher EPS,P/E ratios and market valuesHigher EPS,P/E ratios and market valuesConcluding CommentsRisk Assessment and Limit ManagementCredit Infrastructure and Portfolio ManagementCredit Analytics SupportCredit Technology Enable

46、mentCredit QualityCredit UnderwritingRisk Rating System EffectivenessCounterparty and Portfolio LimitsOrganizational Structure Policies and ProceduresTechnology Selection and ImplementationProblem Asset ManagementRisk Rating CalibrationTransaction Pricing,Structure and SupportDefault Probability and

47、 Recovery CalibrationCredit Reserve MethodologyRisk Based Pricing ModelsRisk Adjusted Return AnalysisPortfolio Value MeasurementCredit Risk MeasurementCredit Performance Scorecards Internal Software Internal Software External Vendor SoftwareExternal Vendor SoftwareAppendix:Business Proposal Checklis

48、tBusiness Proposal SummaryBusiness Proposal Summary Customer,Rating,Legal Status,Line of BusinessCustomer,Rating,Legal Status,Line of Business Guarantor,if anysameGuarantor,if anysame Collateral,if anytrue value explainedCollateral,if anytrue value explained Other Support,if any.Legal or moral onlyO

49、ther Support,if any.Legal or moral only The Transactionrisks and mitigationThe Transactionrisks and mitigation Amount,purpose,terms and conditionsAmount,purpose,terms and conditions Sources of repayment clearly identifiedSources of repayment clearly identified Client payment history and relationship

50、Client payment history and relationshipAppendix:Business Proposal ChecklistRationale and AnalysisRationale and Analysis Customer,Guarantor,Collateral,SupportCustomer,Guarantor,Collateral,Support Facility DescriptionFacility DescriptionAmount,purpose,tenor,pricing,terms,conditions,Amount,purpose,teno