宏观经济学课件(英文版)5只是分享.ppt

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1、宏观经济学课件(英文版)5Conditional Convergence in PracticenThree variables that influenced k*:nSaving rate,s.nTechnology level,A.nPopulation growth rate,n.2Conditional Convergence in PracticenA broader view of the technology level,A.nProductivity depends on the degree of market efficiency.nGreater internation

2、al openness tends to raise productivity.nProductivity tends to rise if governments do better at maintaining private property rights,if the judicial system runs more smoothly,and if official corruption declines.3Recent Research on the Determinants of Economic Growthnk/k=k(0),k*.n (-)(+)nThe idea is t

3、o measure an array of variables,each of which influences a countrys steady-state capital per worker,k*.4Recent Research on the Determinants of Economic GrowthnFirst,if we hold fixed k*(by holding fixed the variables that influence k*),the growth rate of capital per worker,k/k,should exhibit converge

4、nce.nThat is,for given k*,a lower k(0)should match up with a higher k/k.nSecond,any variable that raises or lowers k*should correspondingly raise or lower k/k for given k(0).5Recent Research on the Determinants of Economic Growth6Recent Research on the Determinants of Economic GrowthnHold constant a

5、 list of variables that influence k*.n a measure of the saving rate;n the fertility rate for the typical woman(which influences population growth);n subjective measures of maintenance of the rule of law and democracy;n the size of government,as gauged by the share of government consumption expenditu

6、res in GDP;7Recent Research on the Determinants of Economic Growthn the extent of international openness,measured by the volume of exports and imports;n changes in the terms of trade,which is the ratio of prices of exported goods to prices of imported goods;n measures of investment in education and

7、health;n the average rate of inflation,which is an indicator of macroeconomic policy.8Recent Research on the Determinants of Economic GrowthnGrowth rate of real GDP per person rises in response tona higher saving rate,nlower fertility,nbetter maintenance of the rule of law,nsmaller government consum

8、ption,ngreater international openness,nimprovement in the terms of trade,ngreater quantity and quality of education,nbetter health,and lower inflation.9Recent Research on the Determinants of Economic GrowthnDemocracy has a less clear effectif a country starts from a totalitarian system,increases in

9、democracy seem to favor economic growth.nHowever,after a country reaches a mid-range of democracy(characteristic in recentnyears of Indonesia,Turkey,and several places in Latin America),further democratization seems to reduce growth.10Recent Research on the Determinants of Economic GrowthnNumerous a

10、dditional variables that influence growth.nscope of financial markets,nthe degree of income inequality,nthe extent of official corruption,nthe role of colonial and legal origins,nThe intensity of religious participation and beliefs.11Examples of Conditional ConvergencenBy 1946,Japan,Germany,France,a

11、nd other countries in Europe suffered sharp reductions in physical capital,which resulted in a low starting value of capital per worker,k(0).nIn the 1960s,many East Asian countries,such as South Korea and Taiwan,were poor and,therefore,had low values of k(0).12Long-Run Economic GrowthnSolow model do

12、es not explain how capital and real GDP per worker,k and y,grow in the long run.nThe model does not explain how real GDP per person grew at around 2%per year for well over a century in the United States and other rich countries.13Long-Run Economic GrowthnWe allow for technological progress in the se

13、nse of continuing growth of the technology level,A.nA grows in an exogenous manner.14Models with Constant Average Product of CapitalnThe diminishing average product of capital,y/k,plays a major role in the transition phase of the Solow growth model.nk/k=s(y/k)(+n).15Models with Constant Average Prod

14、uct of CapitalnInterpret capital broadly,especially to include human capital in the forms of formal education,on-the-job training,and health.nInclude forms of capital that are often owned by government,such as infrastructure capital used for transportation and utilities.16Models with Constant Averag

15、e Product of CapitalnIf we double not only machines and buildings but also human and infrastructure capital,real GDP may roughly double.nIf raw labor is not a critical input to production,capitals marginal and average products may not decline as capital accumulates.17Models with Constant Average Pro

16、duct of Capital18Models with Constant Average Product of Capitalny/k=A.nk/k=sA (+n).19Models with Constant Average Product of Capital20Exogenous Technological ProgressnAllow for continuing increases in A.nThis regular process of improvements in the technology is called technological progress.nA/A=g.

17、21Exogenous Technological Progress22Exogenous Technological Progress23Exogenous Technological Progress24Exogenous Technological Progress25Exogenous Technological ProgressnSince the average product of capital,y/k,is constant during steady-state growth,the numerator of the ratio,y,must grow at the sam

18、e rate as the denominator,k.n(y/y)*=(k/k)*.26Exogenous Technological Progress27Exogenous Technological Progress28Exogenous Technological Progress29Exogenous Technological ProgressnExogenous technological progress at the rate A/A=g allows for long-term growth in real GDP and capital per worker at the

19、 rate g/(1-).nThe technological progress offsets the tendency for the average product of capital,y/k,to fall when k rises and,thereby,allows for long-term growth in real GDP and capital per worker.30Exogenous Technological ProgressnGrowth rate of real GDP per person in the United States averaged 2.0

20、%per year from 1869 to 2003.nIf we think of as the share of capital income and use values for between 1/3 and 1/2,the required value for g is a little over 1%per year.31Exogenous Technological Progress32Exogenous Technological Progress33Exogenous Technological Progress34Exogenous Technological Progr

21、ess35Exogenous Technological Progress36Endogenous Technological ProgressnRomer and others developed are called endogenous growth models.nThe model explains the rate of technological progress.nThe technological progress leads to long run growth of real GDP and capital per worker.37Endogenous Technolo

22、gical ProgressnMost endogenous growth models focus on businesss investments in research and development or R&D.nThis endogeneity of technological progress means that we can use the model to understand how government policies and other variables influence R&D investment and,thereby,the rate of techno

23、logical progress and the long-run growth rate of real GDP per person.38Endogenous Technological ProgressnTheories of technological progress specify a connection between R&D investment and the amount of technological advance,represented by increases in A.39Endogenous Technological ProgressnIn many re

24、spects,R&D investment resembles the familiar investment in physical capital.nTwo important differences:ndiminishing returns nownership rights.40Endogenous Technological ProgressnIntellectual property rights.nPatentsnCopyrights41Endogenous Technological ProgressnPaul Romer(1990)constructed the first

25、model in which R&D investment and intellectual property rights were linked to a theory of technological progress and economic growth.42Endogenous Technological ProgressnThe private return to R&D investment is higher if the costs of R&D are lower in relation to the effects of successful innovations o

26、n sales revenues and production costs.nThe private return is higher if intellectual property rights over the use of an invention are more secure and long-lasting.nThe private return is higher if the government subsidizes R&D investment.43The Diffusion of TechnologynFor an individual country or produ

27、cer,it is possible to raise Athe technology level available to that country or producerby imitating or adapting someone elses innovation.nWe use the term diffusion of technology to describe the imitation and adaptation of one countrys technology by another country.44The Diffusion of TechnologynLow-i

28、ncome countries tend to focus on diffusion of technology as the way to raise technology levels.nIn one case,a multi-national firm from an advanced country uses an advanced technology in a foreign subsidiary.nSometimes the transfer of technology occurs through observation and analysis of products exc

29、hanged in international trade.45The Diffusion of TechnologynThe diffusion of technology provides another reason why poor countries tend to converge toward rich ones.nStudies show that the rate of technological diffusion to a developing country is higher when the country has a lot of international tr

30、ade with rich countries,high education levels,and well-functioning legal and political systems.46Summarizing What We Know about Economic GrowthnWe can think of Solow growth model as having two phases.nIn the first phase,capital and real GDP per worker rise from their initial levels to their steady-s

31、tate levels.nThe second phase is the steady state.In chapters 3 and 4,capital and real GDP per worker did not grow in the long run,that is,in the steady state.47Summarizing What We Know about Economic GrowthnThe inclusion of technological progress led to growth of capital and real GDP per worker in

32、the steady state.nWe used the Solow model to predict the short-and long-run effects from changes in the saving rate,the technology level,the size of the labor force,and population growth.48Summarizing What We Know about Economic GrowthnWe showed how the transition phase of the model predicted conver

33、gence,by which we mean a tendency of poor economies to catch up to rich economies.nWe found that absolute convergence conflicted with observations for a broad group of countries but that a modified conceptconditional convergencewas consistent with these observations.49Summarizing What We Know about

34、Economic GrowthnWe showed that the model would explain a long-term growth rate of around 2%per year if we assumed exogenous technological progress at a rate of about 1%per year.nEndogenous growth modelsnTechnological diffusion,50此此课课件下件下载载可自行可自行编辑编辑修改，修改，仅仅供参考！供参考！感感谢谢您的支持，我您的支持，我们们努力做得更好！努力做得更好！谢谢谢谢