国际贸易全套课件电子教案.ppt

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1、国际贸易全套课件主要参考书1、国际贸易、国际贸易 海闻海闻 上海人民出版社上海人民出版社2、国际经济学、国际经济学 保罗保罗 克鲁格曼克鲁格曼 中国人民大中国人民大学学（国际贸易部分）（国际贸易部分）3、http:/highered.mcgraw- 份份1975 1980 1982 1997 2000依存度依存度5.4%15.3%8.2%40%43.9%2022/11/17balance of trade (BT)贸易差额贸易差额nDefinition：BT=ex im na favorable balance of trade,excess of export 贸易顺差nan unfavor

2、able balance of trade,excess of import,deficit,overimport 贸易逆差nIs huge trade surplus good or bad for a country?2022/11/17ncomposition of trade贸易商品结构ntrade by region贸易地理结构nvisible/Tangible tradeninvisible/Intangible tradenGeneral trade，总贸易nSpecial trade,专门贸易nTerms of Trade(TOT)贸易条件n=Px/Pm*1002022/11/

3、171.3 Introduction to International Trade Theoriesn1.Free Trade Vs.Trade Protectionismn2.Brief Introduction to Trade Theories2022/11/17TRADE THEORIESEarly Trade TheoriesThe Classical Theory of Trade 1.Absolute Advantage and the Smith Model2.Comparative Advantage and the Ricardian Model Neoclassical

4、Trade Theory 3.Factor Endowment and the Basic Heckscher-Ohlin Model 4.Extensions and Implications of the H-O Model 5.Specific Factor Model Modern Trade Theories6.Imperfect Competition and Economies of Scale7.Product Cycle8.Demand-side Theories9.New Development in International Economics2022/11/17THE

5、ORETICAL ISSUES:Why do countries trade?Gain from tradeWhat are the bases for trade?Price differences Supply side(cost):TechnologyFactor endowmentProduction scale Demand side:IncomePreferenceWhat are the impacts of trade?On price,production,consumption,and welfareWhat are the changes in trade pattern

6、?Explaining the dynamic changes in trade pattern 2022/11/17Mercantilism Time period:1500-1750Main ideas:Nations Wealth=Countrys holdings of precious metalsExport is a gain(gain precious metals);import is a loss(lose precious metals)Trade is a“Zero-sum Game”:one country gain is a loss of another coun

7、tryPolicies:Build up the power of a nation-state:strong army,strong navy,and merchant marineMaintain a positive trade balance:export importnPromote export and restrict import 2022/11/17Davis Hume:the Price-Specie-Flow Mechanism Given sufficient time,an automatic trade balance adjustment would take p

8、lace between a trade surplus country and a trade deficit country by means of the following steps:2022/11/172022/11/17THE SMITH MODELnBasic Assumptionsn One input:Labor(L)nTwo outputs:e.g.Wheat(QW)and Cloth(QC)nTwo Countries:e.g.US and ChinanDifferent technologies different productivity of labornFull

9、 Employment,Perfect Competition,and Constant return to Scale2022/11/17Basis for Trade Difference in TechnologyProductivity Production cost Commodity priceMeasurements of absolute advantage:2022/11/17A numerical example 2022/11/17Measurements of Absolute AdvantageIn Terms of Productivity:(Q/L)Cloth W

10、heatChina 1.00.5U.S.0.81.0In Terms of Production Cost:(L/Q)ClothWheatChina1.02.0U.S1.251.0In this case,China has an absolute advantage in producing cloth and the US has an absolute advantage in growing wheat.2022/11/17Gains from TradeClothWheatChina5025U.S.40 50In Autarky(Assumption)Free Trade(Assum

11、ption)ClothWheatChina 100(50+)0U.S.0100(50+)5050+25+102022/11/17Pattern of Production&Trade n-each country should specialize in and export the Product in which it has an absolute advantagenIn this case,China should be specialized in production of cloth and US should produce wheat.China should export

12、 cloth and import wheat.US should import cloth and export wheat 2022/11/17Limitation In this case,the US has the absolute advantage in both goods(it is very common for a developed country to have absolute advantages in most sectors).According to the Smith theory,there will be no trade.？2022/11/17Com

13、parative Advantage2022/11/17THE RICARDIAN MODEL Basic Assumptions The same as the Smith ModelBasis for Trade DifferencesinTechnologies(inrelativeterm)RelativeproductivityRelativeproductioncostRelativecommodityprice 2022/11/17Measurements of Comparative Advantage:2022/11/172022/11/17Effects of Trade：

14、Generalequilibriumanalysis:autarky(self-sufficient)equilibriumtradeequilibrium2022/11/17-trade triangle 贸易三角贸易三角-Welfare:gains from allocation(配配置所得置所得)*trade gains from exchange 交换所得交换所得 *trade gains from specification 分工分工所得所得2022/11/172022/11/17Pattern of Production and Trade-eachcountryshouldspe

15、cializeinandexporttheProductinwhichithasacomparativeadvantage 2022/11/17Solution for Smith Models PuzzleChinaU.S.Cloth100150Wheat50100InTermsofRelativeLaborProductivityofCloth(QC/QW)China=100/50 (QC/QW)U.S =150/1002022/11/17ExceptionChinaU.S.Cloth100 Wheat501002001502022/11/17Comparative Advantage w

16、ith Many Goods or Many CountriesMany Countries and Two Goods-Setting up the model:list relative costs by order2022/11/17-Deriving the relative supply-Determining the relative price-Determining the comparative advantages2022/11/17Many Goods and Two Countries n-Setting up the model:list relative produ

17、ctivity by ordern-Deriving the relative demand for labor-Determining the relative wage-Determining the comparative advantages 2022/11/172022/11/17Heckscher-Ohlin theorynIn the real world,while trade is partly explained by differences in labor productivity,it also reflects differences in countries re

18、sources.nThe Heckscher-Ohlin theory:nEmphasizes resource differences as the only source of tradenShows that comparative advantage is influenced by:nRelative factor abundance(refers to countries)nRelative factor intensity(refers to goods)nIs also referred to as the factor-proportions theory2022/11/17

19、Heckscher-Ohlin Theory of Trade A country will export products that use relatively intensively those production factors found relatively abundantly in the country,and import products that use relatively intensively those production factors that are relatively scarce in the country.H-O comparative ad

20、vantage is actually a triple comparison:nacross countriesnacross productsnacross factors of production 2022/11/17n生产要素禀赋（factor endowment）：生产要素在一个地区中的天然供给状况。n要素丰裕度（factor abundance）不同国家或地区几种要素拥有总量的相对比例。2022/11/17factorintensity要素密集度n生产某产品投入不同要素的相对密集程度（针对产品而言）则则X为劳动密集型产品，为劳动密集型产品，Y为资本密集型产品为资本密集型产品202

21、2/11/17The H-O Model nThe Basic H-O ModelnGeneral Equilibrium AnalysisnPartial Equilibrium AnalysisnLeontiefs Paradox(里昂惕夫之谜)The Basic H-O ModelnBasic AssumptionsnTwo inputs(factors):Labor(L)and Capital(K)nTwo outputs:Rice(R)and Steel(S)nTwo Countries,e.g.US and ChinaDifferent proportion of factor e

22、ndowment:(K/L)US (K/L)ChinanInvariable factor Endowments&PPCnSame TechnologynUS is a capital-abundant country and China is a labor-abundant countrynFull Employment,Perfect Competition and Constant return to Scale2022/11/17Basis for Trade Differentrelativefactorendowments(differentproportion)differen

23、trelativefactorpricesdifferentrelative production costs differentrelativepricesofproductsComparative advantage in producing exporttheproductthatusesitsabundantrecourseintensively(lowerrelativecost)2022/11/17Pattern of Production and TradenA country should produce more and export the product that use

24、s its abundant recourse intensively,and import the product that uses its scarce recourse intensively.In this case,US should export steel and China should export rice.2022/11/17General Equilibrium Analysis:n Determination of the free trade relative prices(Terms of Trade,TOT)nEffects on domestic produ

25、ction,consumption,relative price of goods 2022/11/17Gain from trade:measured by changes in CIC(social welfare level)2022/11/17Partial Equilibrium Analysis:Determination of the free trade price 2022/11/17Effects on domestic production,consumption,and the price of goods nWelfare changes in producers a

26、nd consumers:measured by changes inProducer Surplus(PS，生产者剩余)and Consumer Surplus(CS，消费者剩余)nGain from trade:measured by the net national gain(loss)2022/11/17Import Industry-SteelSmall country vs large countryPrice Production consumption2022/11/17Export Industry-Rice2022/11/17Test for the HO Theory-L

27、eontiefs paradoxnWassily W.Leontief:the input-output analysis nExpect to prove:1.The HO Theory is correct;2.As we know,USA is the most capital abundant country in the world by any criterion and should export capital-intensive commodities while import labor-intensive commodities.nResult:Paradoxial202

28、2/11/17nLeontief found that U.S.exports were less capital-intensive than U.S.imports,even though the U.S.is the most capital-abundant country in the world.2022/11/17nLeontiefs Second Test 学者 数据年份(Kx/Lx)/(Km/Lm)=(H-O预测:1)Whitney，196818991.12Leontiev，195419470.77Leontinv，19561947/510.94(或不包括自然资源行业，1.1

29、4)Baldwin，19711958/620.79(或不包括自然资源行业，0.96)19721.05(或不包括自然资源行业，1.08)Trade Patterns of Other Countries nJAPAN nCANADA nINDIA 2022/11/17Explanations for the LP nFactor Intensity Reversal(生产要素密集型逆转)nTrade BarriersnSkills and human capital（人力资本）nNatural resources2022/11/17Chapter 4 Neo-Classical Trade Mo

30、del:Extensions&Applicationsn4.1 International trade and returns to factors（生产要素收益）n4.1.1 Effects of Trade on Factor Prices in Each Country nThe Stolper-Samuelson(S-S)TheoremnMagnification Effect(放大效应)n4.1.2Effects of Trade on Factor Prices in Both Countries nThe Factor Price Equalization Theorem n4.

31、2 Economy growth and trade2022/11/174.1.1 Effects of Trade on Factor Prices in Each CountrynShort-Run(nofactorsaremobileamongsectors)Returntofactors:W=P*MPL,R=P*MPkReturnstofactoraredeterminedbychangesinProductPriceNochangesinmarginalproductivityoffactorPrice of export product,both factors in the ex

32、portsectorgainPriceofimport-competingproduct,bothfactorsintheimport-competingloss 2022/11/17Long-Run(all factors are able to move among sectors)nThe Stolper-Samuelson(S-S)Theorem Free trade raises the return to the factor used intensively in the rising-price sector(export sector)and lowers the retur

33、n to factor used intensively in the falling-price(import competing sector)nMagnification Effect Changes in returns to factors are greater than the changes in product prices2022/11/172022/11/172022/11/17The Factor Price Equalization Theorem nUnder the assumptions of H-O model,free trade will equalize

34、 not only commodity prices but also factor prices.All labors will earn the same wage rate and all units of capital(or land)will earn the same profit(or rental returns)in both countries regardless of the factor supplies or the demand patterns in the two countries.2022/11/17International Factor PriceE

35、qualizationWith the shift to free trade:For each factor,its rate of return becomes more similar between countries.Under ideal conditions,its real rate of return is the same in different countries.Example:Labor.2022/11/17International Factor PriceEqualizationWith no trade,the wage rate is high in the

36、 labor-scarce country.The wage rate is low in the labor-abundant country.With free trade,the import of labor-intensive products pushes the wage-rate down in the labor-scarce country.The export of labor-intensive products pulls the wage rate up in the labor-abundant country.2022/11/172022/11/17Econom

37、ic Growth:nIs economic growth in other countries good or bad for our nation?nIt may be good for our nation because it means larger markets for our exports.nIt may mean increased competition for our exporters.nIs growth in a country more or less valuable when that nation is part of a closely integrat

38、ed world economy?nIt should be more valuable when a country can sell some of its increased production to the world market.nIt is less valuable when the benefits of growth are passed on to foreigners rather than retained at home2022/11/17nGrowth and the Production Possibility FrontiernEconomic growth

39、 implies an outward shift of a countrys production possibility frontier(TT).nBiased growthnTakes place when TT shifts out more in one direction than in the othernCan occur for two reasons:nTechnological progress in one sector of the economy nIncrease in a countrys supply of a factor of production202

40、2/11/17TT1TT1TT2TT2Cloth production,QCFood production,QF(a)Growth biased toward clothCloth production,QCFood production,QF(b)Growth biased toward food2022/11/17Growth and Trade nDefinition of Growth and Types of Growth nIncreases in factor endowments vs.Factor-saving technological progressnBiased ec

41、onomic growth（不平衡增长）（不平衡增长）:Export Expanding(EE，出口扩张型)Growth vs.Import Replacing(IR，进口替代型)Growth nLarge countries Vs small countries2022/11/17nExport-biased growthnDisproportionately expands a countrys production possibilities in the direction of the good it exportsnWorsens a growing countrys terms

42、of trade,to the benefit of the rest of the worldnImport-biased growthnDisproportionately expands a countrys production possibilities in the direction of the good it importsnImproves a growing countrys terms of trade at the rest of the words expense2022/11/17IR Growth-a Small Country TOT,Production,T

43、rade,Welfare 2022/11/17IR Growth-a Large Country(TOT,Production,Trade,Welfare)2022/11/17EE Growth-a Small Country TOT,Production,Trade,Welfare 2022/11/17Cases:Dutch Disease(荷兰病)nCause?nNew Economy in U.S.2022/11/17EE Growth-a Large Country(TOT,Production,Consumption,Trade,Welfare)2022/11/17a special

44、 case:“Immiserizing Growth”福利恶化型增长2022/11/17Small countryLarge countryIRTOTTOTProduction:Import Sector Export SectorProduction:Import Sector Export SectorTrade:TradeWelfare:Welfare:EETOTTOTProduction:Import Sector Export SectorProduction:Import Sector Export SectorTrade:TradeWelfare:Welfare:Rybczysk

45、i Theorem and Dutch DiseaseImmiserizing Growth2022/11/17The Specific Factor Model(特定要素模型)nBasic AssumptionsnThree inputs(factors):nMobile factor:Labor(L)nSpecific Factors:Capital(K)and Land(T)nTwo outputs:nManufacture(QM)n Food(QF)2022/11/17Chapt.5 Modern Trade Theoriesn5.1 Modern Trade Facts5.1.1Ri

46、seofIntra-industryTrade（产业内贸易）-Intra-industrialTrade(IIT)IndexWhenthereisaperfectIntra-industrialTrade,IIT=1;Whenthereisnotrade,IIT=0.5.1.2 Increase in Trade between developedcountries5.1.3ChangesinIndustrialLeadership(产业领先地位)2022/11/172022/11/172022/11/17ChangesinIndustrialLeadershipnTextilesnTVnCa

47、rnSteelnSemiconductor2022/11/175.2 Imperfect Competition and International Trade nThe Theory of Imperfect Competition:A Brief Review nImperfect Competition and Price Discrimination（价格歧视/价格差异）Price DiscriminationAssumption:imperfect competitive firm or monopolistic competitive firm;two markets totall

48、y divided;different demand in two markets.2022/11/17nDumping and International Trade nReciprocal Dumping and Intra-industrial Trade2022/11/17ExampleDomestic Market1000 Units P=20$To increase 1 unit in sale,P 1 cent19.99*1001-1000*20=9.99MRd=9.99$Foreign Market100 Units P=15$14.99*101-15*100=13.99MRf

49、=13.99$2022/11/175.3 Economy of Scale 规模规模经济经济and International Trade2022/11/17 Economy of ScalenEconomies of Scale:n External外部规模经济nInternal 内部规模经济2022/11/175.4 Product Cycle2022/11/17Chapt.6 INTERNATIONAL FACTOR MOVEMENTS n6.1 INTERNATIONAL MOVEMENT OF LABOR nGeneral SituationnType of Internationa

50、l Labor MovementnContract Worker 外籍劳工nImmigration 移民nWelfare Effects on Firms,Workers,and the Whole Economy2022/11/172022/11/176.3 MultinationalsnTheory of MultinationalsnLocation Resources,transportation costs,trade barriersnInternalization Technology transfer,vertical integration,etc2022/11/17nDev