SCM-APO-DPoverview10361.pptx

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1、SAPSCM/APO European InitiativeAPO Overview Internal TrainingDemand Planning OverviewMarch 2003-2-Accenture 2003Training Agenda Advanced Planner&Optimizer OverviewDemand Planning OverviewSupply Network Planning OverviewProduction Planning&Detailed Scheduling OverviewGlobal Available-to-Promise Overvi

2、ewAPO Integration&CIF OverviewAPO Implementation Considerations-3-Accenture 2003ObjectivesMain Goals of This Section vTo understand Demand Planning as an accurate forecasting tool in the APO context.vTo know Demand Planning main features,in concrete:wIts architecture,data storage and representation

3、attributeswIts main tools(Planning Toolbox,Planning Environment,Accuracy Analysis)wThe different forecasting methods availablevTo visualize how DP applies to a real case(Sara Lee).vTo be aware of main considerations and complexity factors when implementing Demand Planning.vTo get familiar with the l

4、ook of DP and its basic functions through a demo and practising with simple exercises.-4-Accenture 2003Contents 1.Demand Planning Features&Capabilities2.Case Study:Sara Lee3.Key Aspects to Consider When Implementing DP4.DP Demo:Accelerated Supply Chain Integration APO Template5.DP Exercises-5-Accent

5、ure 2003Demand Planning Accurate ForecastingvA toolkit of statistical forecasting techniquesvTightly linked to the R/3 System and the SAP BW SAP(data can be automatically transferred)vTree selection and drill-down capabilities facilitates navigation through multidimensional data structuresvUses the

6、Alert Monitor to report exceptions Demand Planning Features and CapabilitiesPlanners KnowledgeTask-specific planning toolsFlexible viewsGraphicsPromotional planningLife cycle managementCannibalizationAccuracy reportingStatistical MethodsMulti-model approachAverage modelsExponential smoothingCausal f

7、actorsTrend dampeningModel combinationPick bestDemand Planning Data MartAnticipation ofFuture DemandInformationCollaborative forecastsOrder&shipmentactuals&historyCostPOS dataNielsen/IRI data.-6-Accenture 2003Demand Planning Features and CapabilitiesCUSTOMERYEARSMONTHSWEEKSDAYSHOURSQUARTERSSELLHOLDM

8、OVEMAKEDESIGNB2B ExchangesContract Manufacturers3PLs/4PLsChannel PartnersB2B ExchangesBUYSUPPLIERProductionActivityControlOrder ManagementProcurementManufacturing Execution SystemLoadPlanningTransport PlanningDistributionRequirementsPlanningMaterialsPlanningProductionPlanningSupply DemandMatchingPro

9、ductAllocation Sales ForecastingInventory Target SettingSupply ContractNegotiationsNetworkSourcingCustomer ServiceTerritory PlanningAvailable toPromiseIn-transit&On-hand Inventory TrackingMaterialInventoryTrackingNew Product DevelopmentLogistics Network DesignDetailedProductionSchedulingMaterial Req

10、uirementsPlanningAPO Demand Planning within Supply Chain PlanningDemand Demand PlanningPlanningAPO DPAPO DP-7-Accenture 2003SAP APO Demand Planning ArchitecturevDemand Planning is composed of three layers:wGraphical user interfacewPlanning and analysis enginewData martPlanning ViewsGUIOLAPProcessorB

11、usinessPlanningLibraryStatisticalForecasting ToolboxPlanning&AnalysisEnginePlanning AreaTimeSeriesCatalogNotesData MartDemand Planning Features and Capabilities-8-Accenture 2003SAP APO Demand Planning Architecture(continued)vPerformance is of vital importance in any demand planning solution if users

12、 are to fully benefit from available informationvDP architecture includes several features to ensure high performance:wDedicated serverwMultidimensional data mart based on the star schema that supports efficient use of storage space and of CPU cycles,minimizing query response timewBatch forecasting

13、so do not impede online performancevThe size of the information treated depends on:wNumber of characteristics:many characteristics will let the user more flexibility to define the planning level and to review the information but it makes the system works slowerwNumber of key figures:many key figures

14、 will give the user a lot of information related to forecast but it makes the system works slowerwNumber of characteristic combinations:the time consuming for any calculation(e.g.macros)depends directly on the number of characteristic combinationswNumber of planning versions:two planning versions ne

15、eds double capacity than onewType and number of temporal periodsDemand Planning Features and Capabilities-9-Accenture 2003Demand Planning Features and CapabilitiesData Storage and RepresentationvMultidimensional Data Storage in the data mart allows to:wView data and plan from many different perspect

16、iveswDrill down from one level to the nextvInfo Cubes:wA multidimensional data structurewThe primary container of data used in planning,analysis and reportingwContains two types of data,key figures and characteristics(or dimensions):-Key figures are quantifiable values(e.g.sales in units,orders,ship

17、ments,POS)-Characteristics or dimensions determine the organizational levels at which you do aggregation and reporting(e.g.products and customers)wInfo Cubes also share master data and descriptive text,which are stored in different tablesvThe Online Analytical Processing processor:wModels the busine

18、ss rules considering the aggregational behavior of key figures(e.g.sales summed by product and time)wGuarantees that all business rules are met and the computed views present valid results-10-Accenture 2003Data Storage and Representation(continued)vHierarchies are modeled as combinations of characte

19、ristic values(e.g.product are grouped into product family hierarchies)using proportional and temporal factors,in order to be used as the basis for aggregation,disaggregation and drilling down.vThe DP planning level is based on the characteristics definition.In order to be more integrated with R/3 da

20、ta,the dimensions and characteristics are usually based on R/3 hierarchies:wProduct dimension and characteristics are usually based on R/3 product hierarchywCustomer dimension and characteristics are usually based on a R/3 customer hierarchywGeographic dimension and characteristics are usually based

21、 on the supply networkDemand Planning Features and CapabilitiesDimensionsHierarchiesAttributesFactsTime Series ManagementNotesPromotionForecast99010002Life Cycletime sequenceAug.Sept.W32 W33 W34 W35 W36 W37 W38 W39 W40W41124203MaterialCustomerPeriodProduct GroupsRegions-11-Accenture 2003Data Storage

22、 and Representation(continued)vTime Series Management:wBased on catalogs:time series data with related attributes(e.g.promotional patterns and life cycles)wSAP DP allows to reuse time series saving time and ensuring consistency(e.g.reuse a past promotional pattern to estimate the impact of a similar

23、 future promotion)vNotes Management maintains all notes entered by planners to create an audit trail of all demand planning activities,which is specially helpful when multiple sources and people are involved(such as in consensus forecasting)Demand Planning Features and CapabilitiesDimensionsHierarch

24、iesAttributesFactsTime Series ManagementNotesPromotionForecast99010002Life Cycletime sequenceAug.Sept.W32 W33 W34 W35 W36 W37 W38 W39 W40W41124203MaterialCustomerPeriodProduct GroupsRegions-12-Accenture 2003Planning EnvironmentvDPs rich planning and forecasting functions are based on the Statistical

25、 Forecasting Toolbox and the Business Planning Library.These functions include:wAggregate functions(sum,weighted sum,average)wDisaggregate functions(quotas,proportional and equal distribution)wComparison functions(difference,ratio,percent,percent difference,share and correlation)wFinancial functions

26、(conversion from units into revenue,currency conversion and business period conversion)wTime-series functions(time-phased,average,and weighted average of time series)A Planning Book is an easy-to-use tree control for selecting data and a frame with a grid and a graphical data display:Preconfigured p

27、lanning books for promotional planning,causal analysis,statistical forecasting,life cycle management,etcThese can be used as guides for customized planning booksDemand Planning Features and Capabilities-13-Accenture 2003Planning Environment(continued)vYou can use Advanced Macros to:wCalculate deviat

28、ionswMake automatic correctionswCalculate sales budgetswDefine your own exceptional situationswLaunch status queriesvAdvanced Macros models the calculations based on the individual business tasks to perform principally:wBuild a macro consisting of one or more stepswControl how macro steps are proces

29、sed and how results are calculatedwUse a wide range of functions and operationswDefine offsets so that the result in one period is determined by a value in the previous periodwRestrict the execution of a macro to a specific period or periodswWrite macro results to a row,a column or a cellwCreate con

30、text-specific and user-specific planning viewswTrigger an alert in the Alert Monitor to inform of particular business situationsvIntegration with Microsoft ExcelDemand Planning Features and Capabilities-14-Accenture 2003Statistical Forecasting ToolboxvA Toolbox of all practical,proven forecasting me

31、thodsvTime Series Models:wUses past sales to identify level,trend,and seasonal patterns as a basis for creating future projectionswNave models,moving average,simple linear regression,Browns exponential smoothing,Holt-Winters,Box-JenkinsvStochastic Models:wAccurate forecast with sporadic demand patte

32、rnwCroston model uses exponential smoothing to estimate:-The size of demand during periods in which demand occur-The demand frequencywFinal forecast are determined by distributing the size of demand according to the demand frequencyDemand Planning Features and CapabilitiesForecasting-15-Accenture 20

33、03Statistical Forecasting Toolbox(continued)vMultiple Linear Regression:wTechnique for estimating the relationship between past sales and other causal factorswVariety of options to model linear and non-linear trends:-Seasonal patterns-Life cycle patterns-Dummy variables and time lagswCorrelation ana

34、lysis corrects variablesvPick-the-Best,applies the best method among:wAll of the available forecasting methods,orwThe planner-specified forecasting methodsvS-Shaped Curves supports complete lifecycle forecasting(introduction/growth and end-of-life phases)wLogistic and exponential functions wFirst es

35、timation based on similar productswAdjusted over time when sales history is availableDemand Planning Features and Capabilities-16-Accenture 2003Causal AnalysisvIncludes all significant causal factors(price,number of displays,number of stores,temperature,working days)in the models and determine how t

36、hey affect customers behaviorvSimulate sales development according to the mix of causal factors(what-if analysis,marketing mix planning)vMultiple linear regression to model the impact of causal factors 50F65 75 85 60Unit SalesFeb.Mar.April MayJune JulyAug.Sept.Demand Planning Features and Capabiliti

37、es-17-Accenture 2003Multi-Tier ForecastingvIntegrates sell-in data(like POS data)into the process of forecasting sell-through data(like shipments)vCausal model based on significant causal factors to forecast POSvSecond causal model is used to forecast shipments:wUses past POS data and the POS foreca

38、st as the main causal factorwTakes the time lag between POS and shipments into accountwConsiders other causal factors(forward buys,trade promotions)POSDataManufacturingRetailerSalesHistoryConsumerPromotionAdvertisementtimeCompetitor PromotionsalesSell ThroughSell InConsumer demand+Replenishment lead

39、 time+Forward buying=Retailer DemandDemand Planning Features and Capabilities-18-Accenture 2003Data AnalysisvIdentifies missing values and outliers in the data to improve the quality of the statistical forecast.Through the outlier,an automatic correction of historical data is done taking into consid

40、eration out-of-range data that may disturb the identification of historical patternvIdentifies structural changes in“established”patterns:wLevel,trend,and amplitude changeswChange from unstable to stable behaviorwAutomatic detection via tracking signalsvAutomatic outlier detection&correctionvManual

41、interventionDemand Planning Features and Capabilities-19-Accenture 2003Promotion PlanningvImpact of promotions must be projected separately from standard forecast components that are based on historical sales datavTakes prices into account when doing profitability analysis for promotional calendarsv

42、Reporting capabilities allow to track promotional activities and related costsvArchives a promotion pattern in a promotion catalog,so it can be reusedvSeveral techniques for estimating the effect of a promotionPromotionPlannerPromotion patterns97999800PriceQuantity-10%Forecast simulationProfitSalesD

43、emand Planning Features and Capabilities-20-Accenture 2003Life Cycle-ManagementvA Demand Planning and Supply Network Planning both components functionvPlanning strategies for a product depend on the stage of its life cycle:wShould the product be introduced,and when?wHow should a product be promoted

44、during the different stages?wShould the product be deleted,and when?wShould a successor product be introduced?wShould a re-launch be started for a product,and when?wWhat is the cannibalization effect of a new product with existing products?Etc.vDP can represent the launch,growth and discontinuation

45、phases by using phase-in,phase-out and like modeling profiles(or combining them):wA phase-in profile reduces demand history by ever increasing percentages during a specific period or periods(simulating upward sales curve launch and growth phases)wA phase-out profile reduces demand forecast of a prod

46、uct by ever decreasing percentages(simulating downward sales curve discontinuation phase)wLike modeling creates a forecast using the historical data on a product with a similar demand behavior(new products and products with short life cycles)Product LaunchAggregateEnd of LifeDemand Planning Features

47、 and Capabilities-21-Accenture 2003Consensus-Based ForecastingvSAP DP supports consensus-based Sales&Operations Planning(S&OP)vMultidimensional data structure of the InfoCubes enables to create multiple plans:wProduct levels for MarketingwSales areas and account/channel for SaleswDistribution center

48、s and plants for OperationswBusiness units for FinancevSynchronizes multiple plans into one Consensus Plan that drives businessvComposite Forecasting reconciles and combines different plans on same level and multi-levelsDemand Planning Features and CapabilitiesForecast1n.Combine&ReconcileSales Forec

49、astMarketing Forecast-22-Accenture 2003Forecast Accuracy Analysis&Alert MonitorvForecast accuracy reporting:wHelps to assess the accuracy of past forecastswIntegrates this knowledge into projections for the futurevStores a series of forecasts for a particular period and compares each deviation of th

50、is series to the actual values for the same period(mean absolute deviation,error total,mean percentage error,)vReports shoe forecast errors at any level and dimension:wActual versus forecast wActual versus time-lagged forecastwActual versus different planning versionswActual versus budgetvAlert Moni