《中国投资展望》PPT课件.ppt

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1、中国投资展望中国投资展望 不仅只是一场投资热潮不仅只是一场投资热潮孙明春博士中国首席经济学家中国股票研究部主管2009年11月野村全球经济部野村全球经济部请参阅最后重要的免责声明NomuraInternational(HongKong)Limited全球金融危机4万亿一揽子刺激政策投资热潮信贷热潮消费热潮资产价格通胀2NomuraInternational(HongKong)Limited中国投资展望中国投资展望 不仅只是一场投资热潮不仅只是一场投资热潮3NomuraInternational(HongKong)Limited二十年来规模最大的投资热潮二十年来规模最大的投资热潮2009年的实际

2、固定资产投资增长率料将超过1993年的水平固定资产投资固定资产投资(FAI)数据来源:CEIC,野村全球经济部。实际增长率=名义增长率-固定资产投资价格通胀。4NomuraInternational(HongKong)Limited未来仍有大量投资未来仍有大量投资数据来源:CEIC和野村全球经济部。新开工的城镇固定资产投资项目新开工的城镇固定资产投资项目为从2010年第二季度开始部分上游行业出现短缺做好准备！%年同比(年初至今)未完成的城镇固定资产投资项目规模未完成的城镇固定资产投资项目规模万亿元5NomuraInternational(HongKong)Limited即便是今年开工的公共投资

3、也尚未见顶即便是今年开工的公共投资也尚未见顶数据来源：野村全球经济部。投资计划基于2008年12月份至2009年10月份之间开工的309个公开宣布的项目。对于每个单独的项目，我们假设投资金额在其开工日期与完工日期之间的每个月份进行平均分配。所选固定资产投资项目的月度投资计划所选固定资产投资项目的月度投资计划绝大部分投资刺激都将出现在2009年之后所选固定资产投资项目的年度投资计划所选固定资产投资项目的年度投资计划6NomuraInternational(HongKong)Limited私人部门投资也正在好转私人部门投资也正在好转数据来源:CEIC,野村全球经济部。房地产开发投资增长率房地产开发

4、投资增长率我们正将2009年的名义固定资产投资增长率预期从26%上调至30%外商直接投资流入增长率外商直接投资流入增长率7NomuraInternational(HongKong)Limited涟漪效应一：信贷热潮涟漪效应一：信贷热潮2009年流动性过剩指标料将创历史新高银行贷款和银行贷款和M2货币供应量货币供应量流动性过剩指标流动性过剩指标数据来源:CEIC和野村全球经济部。流动性过剩指数通过计算M2增长率与名义GDP增长率之间的差额而得。8NomuraInternational(HongKong)Limited2010-2011年的信贷膨胀：信贷每年增加年的信贷膨胀：信贷每年增加10万亿元

5、万亿元案例研究：货币政策被投资热潮所绑架M2 货币供应量货币供应量数据来源:CEIC和野村全球经济部估计。9NomuraInternational(HongKong)Limited信贷膨胀将会导致家庭财富骤增信贷膨胀将会导致家庭财富骤增迅速印发的货币将会很快流入到居民手中银行贷款增长与家庭金融资产增长银行贷款增长与家庭金融资产增长数据来源：CEIC和野村全球经济部。10NomuraInternational(HongKong)Limited涟漪效应二：消费热潮涟漪效应二：消费热潮家庭收入和财富的快速增长应该会促进消费增长城镇家庭的消费倾向（按收入群体划分）城镇家庭的消费倾向（按收入群体划分）数

6、据来源:CEIC和野村全球经济部估计。11NomuraInternational(HongKong)Limited涟漪效应三：资产价格通胀涟漪效应三：资产价格通胀数据来源：野村全球经济部。2005年中国的基尼系数年中国的基尼系数资产的重新配置将会对资产产生巨大的需求家庭新增金融资产的配置情况家庭新增金融资产的配置情况12NomuraInternational(HongKong)Limited展望投资热潮过后的走势展望投资热潮过后的走势产能过剩增加有限固定资产投资增长率（按部门分）固定资产投资增长率（按部门分）数据来源：CEIC和野村全球经济部。13NomuraInternational(Hon

7、gKong)Limited投资热潮为长期经济增长铺平了道路投资热潮为长期经济增长铺平了道路数据来源：CEIC，全球航空网()，世界银行和野村全球经济部。部分国家的机场密度部分国家的机场密度(2008年年)中国的基础设施建设依然需要大量投资人均电力消费量人均电力消费量(2006年年)14NomuraInternational(HongKong)Limited这也可能成为促进产业转移的催化剂这也可能成为促进产业转移的催化剂数据来源：CEIC,全球航空网()和野村全球经济部。各地区的机场密度各地区的机场密度(2007年年)基础设施一直是中西部地区工业化发展所面临的一个瓶颈各地区的工业企业数量各地区的

8、工业企业数量(2007年年)15NomuraInternational(HongKong)Limited中西部地区更高的固定资产投资增长率将有助于减少瓶颈中西部地区更高的固定资产投资增长率将有助于减少瓶颈 建成之后，中西部地区对于企业家而言将会变得更有吸引力固定资产投资增长率（按地区分）固定资产投资增长率（按地区分）数据来源：CEIC和野村全球经济部。16NomuraInternational(HongKong)Limited风险：资产价格泡沫的破灭风险：资产价格泡沫的破灭假如杠杆的使用得到控制的话，那么损害可以降到最小上证综指上证综指数据来源：CEIC和野村全球经济部。17NomuraInt

9、ernational(HongKong)Limited结论结论n投资热潮应该会持续至2010和2011年投资将继续成为经济增长的一个主要推动力n由于信贷膨胀，我们预期消费热潮现象将会持续下去收入快速增长改变了人们的生活方式n资产价格终将超调并演变成一场泡沫假如杠杆的使用得到控制的话，泡沫的损害可以降到最小n这波投资热潮可能会将中国经济推入自我循环的轨道中类似于1992-1993年的投资热潮这应该会促使中国经济和人民生活水平提升一个新台阶 作为产业转移的催化剂，这可能会在私人部门掀起另一场投资热潮18NomuraInternational(HongKong)LimitedDISCLAIMERS:

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