罗宾斯管理学 决策.ppt

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1、规划与决策规划与决策Planning&Decision MakingChapterChapter3-2Definition-决策决策Decision -Making a choice from two or more alternatives.-Making a choice from two or more alternatives.在两个或在两个或多个选项中作出选择多个选项中作出选择Low level to high level managers make decisions.Low level to high level managers make decisions.All organ

2、izational members make decisions that affect All organizational members make decisions that affect their jobs and organization they work for.their jobs and organization they work for.2Universality of decision makingManagers at all levels make decisionsManagers at all levels make decisions，but but pa

3、rticularly important to managersparticularly important to managersDecision making is part of all four managerial Decision making is part of all four managerial functions-Planning,Organizing,Leading,and functions-Planning,Organizing,Leading,and ControllingControllingMaking decisions is the essence of

4、 the Making decisions is the essence of the management.management.Managers are called decision makersManagers are called decision makers3How do you make decisions?入学考试面试题：入学考试面试题：为何考上海大学？为何考上海大学？考进了大学你准备做什么？考进了大学你准备做什么？未来的职业设想是什么？未来的职业设想是什么？你们的回答：你们的回答：上海大学很美丽、很有名上海大学很美丽、很有名我要认真学习，考证书我要认真学习，考证书？4决策常

5、见的问题决策常见的问题片面片面短见短见感性感性即刻满足即刻满足前后矛盾短期决策与长期目标不一致等等前后矛盾短期决策与长期目标不一致等等5How do managers make decisions?管理者如何作出贤明的决定？管理者如何作出贤明的决定？6Contents 1.1.Eight Steps in the Decision-Making ProcessEight Steps in the Decision-Making Process2.2.Three Ways Managers Make DecisionsThree Ways Managers Make Decisions3.3.D

6、ecisions and Decision-Making ConditionsDecisions and Decision-Making Conditions4.4.Decision-Making Styles and how biases affect Decision-Making Styles and how biases affect decision making decision making 5.5.Challenges for decision makers(add.)Effective Challenges for decision makers(add.)Effective

7、 Decision Making TechniquesDecision Making Techniques6.6.Situations of decision makingSituations of decision makingChapterChapter37What are the general factors affecting managers decision making?影响决策的因素影响决策的因素1.ProcessProcess2.ApproachesApproaches3.Types of decisionsTypes of decisions4.ConditionsCon

8、ditions5.ManagersManagers6.ObjectivesObjectives7.Errors and BiasesErrors and Biases81.The Decision-Making Process决策过程决策过程9Exhibit 71Exhibit 71The Decision-Making ProcessThe Decision-Making ProcessP179P179The Decision-Making The Decision-Making Process Process includesincludes Eight steps from steps

9、from identifying a problem to identifying a problem to evaluating the decision evaluating the decision effectivenesseffectiveness出处：罗宾斯出处：罗宾斯 管理学管理学13e13e10决策过程决策过程 Source:Source:RobertN.LussierRobertN.Lussier Concepts,Applications,Concepts,Applications,Skill DevelopmentSkill Development 4e4e112.The

10、 Ways Managers Making Decisions 管理者的决策方法管理者的决策方法122.1 Rational Decision Making approach2.1 Rational Decision Making approach 理性决策理性决策理性决策理性决策D Assumptions of RationalityAssumptions of RationalityManagers make consistent,value-maximizing choices with Managers make consistent,value-maximizing choices

11、with specified constraints.specified constraints.Assumptions to decision makers:Assumptions to decision makers:TheyTheyvvA Are re perfectly rationalperfectly rational,fully objective,and logical.,fully objective,and logical.明确目标，彻底逻明确目标，彻底逻辑，完全理性辑，完全理性vvH Have carefully defined the problem and ident

12、ified all viable ave carefully defined the problem and identified all viable alternatives.alternatives.清晰界定问题和全部选项清晰界定问题和全部选项vvH Have a clear and specific goal ave a clear and specific goal 明确具体目标明确具体目标vvWWill select the alternative that ill select the alternative that maximizes outcomes maximizes o

13、utcomes in the in the organizations interests rather than in their personal interests.organizations interests rather than in their personal interests.满足满足组织最大利益组织最大利益132.2 Bounded Rationality DM Approach2.2 Bounded Rationality DM Approach 有限理性决策有限理性决策有限理性决策有限理性决策 D Bounded RationalityBounded Rationa

14、lity（有限理性）（有限理性）（有限理性）（有限理性）Decision making thats rational,but are limited Decision making thats rational,but are limited(bounded)by an individuals ability to process(bounded)by an individuals ability to process information.information.Assumptions are that decision makers:Assumptions are that decisi

15、on makers:vvWill Will notnot seek out or have knowledge of seek out or have knowledge of all alternativesall alternativesvvWill Will satisfiedsatisfiedchoose the first alternative encountered that choose the first alternative encountered that satisfactorily solves the problemrather than maximize the

16、 satisfactorily solves the problemrather than maximize the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best.choosing the best.vvEx:To find a jobEx:To find a job14 Most decisions that managers make dont fit t

17、he assumptions of perfect rationality,so they satisfice15后期决策受前期决策影响后期决策受前期决策影响后期决策受前期决策影响后期决策受前期决策影响Bounded RationalityBounded Rationality（有限理性）（有限理性）Bounded rational decision making influenced byvvOrganizations culture,internal politics,power Organizations culture,internal politics,power considera

18、tions,and considerations,and vvEscalation of commitmentEscalation of commitment（承诺升级）（承诺升级）（承诺升级）（承诺升级）:an an increased commitment to a previous decision increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong.despite evidence that it may have been wrong.vvEx:Challen

19、ger space shuttle disasterEx:Challenger space shuttle disaster162.3 Intuitive Decision-making approach2.3 Intuitive Decision-making approach 直觉决策直觉决策直觉决策直觉决策The Role of IntuitionThe Role of IntuitionIntuitive decision making Intuitive decision making（直觉决策）（直觉决策）Is making decisions on the basis of ex

20、perience,Is making decisions on the basis of experience,feelings,and accumulated judgment.feelings,and accumulated judgment.17Exhibit 76Exhibit 76 What is Intuition?What is Intuition?Five Different Aspects of IntuitionFive Different Aspects of IntuitionSource:Source:Based on L.A.Burke and M.K.Miller

21、,“Taking the Mystery Out of Intuitive Based on L.A.Burke and M.K.Miller,“Taking the Mystery Out of Intuitive Decision Making,”Decision Making,”Academy of Management ExecutiveAcademy of Management Executive,October 1999,pp.9199.,October 1999,pp.9199.P184P184潜意识决策潜意识决策情感决策情感决策认知决策认知决策经验决策经验决策价值道德决策价值道

22、德决策直觉183 Types of Decisions and Decision-Making Conditions 决策类型与决策条件决策类型与决策条件193.1 Types of Problems&Decisions问题类型与决策类型问题类型与决策类型问题类型与决策类型问题类型与决策类型Structured ProblemsProgrammed Structured ProblemsProgrammed DecisionDecisionUnstructured Problems Nonprogrammed Unstructured Problems Nonprogrammed Decisi

23、onDecision203.1 Types of Decisions3.1 Types of DecisionsStructured Problems and Programmed DecisionsStructured Problems and Programmed Decisions Structured Problems Structured Problems 结构性问题结构性问题Definition:Straightforward,familiar,and easily defined problems Definition:Straightforward,familiar,and e

24、asily defined problems 直接、直接、熟悉并容易界定的问题熟悉并容易界定的问题Involve goals that clear.Involve goals that clear.Are familiar(have occurred before).Are familiar(have occurred before).Are easily and completely definedAre easily and completely definedinforinformation about the problem is mation about the problem is

25、 available and complete.available and complete.Example:a server in a restaurant spills a drink on a customers coatExample:a server in a restaurant spills a drink on a customers coat Programmed Decisions Programmed Decisions 程序化决策程序化决策Definition:Definition:A repetitive decision that can be handled by

26、 a routine approach.A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.Example:Example:The manager offers to have the coat cleaned at restaurants The manager offers to have the coat cleaned at restaurants expenseexpense21(1)Programmed decision 程序化决策程序化决策PolicyPolicy（政策）（政策）A general gui

27、deline for making a decision about a A general guideline for making a decision about a structured problem.structured problem.Procedure Procedure（程序）（程序）A series of interrelated steps that a manager can use A series of interrelated steps that a manager can use to respond(applying a policy)to a struct

28、ured problem.to respond(applying a policy)to a structured problem.Rule Rule（规则）（规则）An explicit statement that limits what a manager or An explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do.employee can or cannot do.22Example-Policy,Procedure,and RulePolicy,Procedure,and RuleP

29、olicyPolicy（政策）（政策）Accept all customer-returned merchandise.Accept all customer-returned merchandise.ProcedureProcedure（程序）（程序）Follow all steps for completing merchandise return Follow all steps for completing merchandise return documentation.documentation.Rules Rules（规则）（规则）Managers must approve al

30、l refunds over$50.00.Managers must approve all refunds over$50.00.No credit purchases are refunded for cash.No credit purchases are refunded for cash.23Problems and Decisions(contd)Problems and Decisions(contd)Unstructured Problems and Nonprogrammed Unstructured Problems and Nonprogrammed DecisionsD

31、ecisions Unstructured Problems Unstructured Problems 结构不良问题结构不良问题Definition:Problems that are new or unusual and for which Definition:Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete.information is ambiguous or incomplete.Problems that will require custom-made so

32、lutions.Problems that will require custom-made solutions.Nonprogrammed Decisions Nonprogrammed Decisions 非程序化决策非程序化决策Definition:A unique and nonrecurring decision that requires a Definition:A unique and nonrecurring decision that requires a custom-made solution custom-made solution 唯一的和不可重复的决策。唯一的和不

33、可重复的决策。Decisions that generate unique responses.Decisions that generate unique responses.24Exhibit 77Exhibit 77 Programmed versus Nonprogrammed DecisionsProgrammed versus Nonprogrammed DecisionsP187P187253.2 Decision-Making Conditions 决策制定条件决策制定条件Certainty Certainty（确定性）（确定性）（确定性）（确定性）Definition:Def

34、inition:A situation in which a manager can make an A situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known.choice is known.Example:where to deposit money Example:where to deposit

35、moneyRisk Risk（风险性）（风险性）（风险性）（风险性）Definition:Definition:A situation in which the manager is able to A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood(probability)of outcomes that result estimate the likelihood(probability)of outcomes that result from the choice of particular altern

36、atives.from the choice of particular alternatives.Example:next page Example:next pageP187P18726Decision-Making ConditionsDecision-Making ConditionsUncertainty Uncertainty（不确定性）（不确定性）（不确定性）（不确定性）Definition:Definition:A situation in which a decision maker A situation in which a decision maker has neit

37、her certainty nor reasonable probability has neither certainty nor reasonable probability estimates availableestimates availablevvLimited information prevents estimation of outcome Limited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem probabili

38、ties for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition.and may force managers to rely on intuition.27Decision-Making ConditionsDecision-Making ConditionsAn Example of Decision-Making in an An Example of Decision-Making in an Uncertainty ConditionUncertainty Con

39、ditionvvMaximax:the optimistic managers choice to maximize Maximax:the optimistic managers choice to maximize the maximum payoffthe maximum payoffvvMaximin:the pessimistic managers choice to maximize Maximin:the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoffthe minimum payoffvvMinimax:th

40、e managers choice to minimize maximum Minimax:the managers choice to minimize maximum regret.regret.28Exhibit 79Exhibit 79Payoff MatrixPayoff MatrixExample:Which Strategy Will U Choose?Suppose you are a sales manager of VISASuppose you are a sales manager of VISAP189P189罗宾斯罗宾斯 管理学管理学29Exhibit 79Exhi

41、bit 79Payoff MatrixPayoff MatrixMaxmax choiceMaxmax choiceMaxmin choiceMaxmin choiceP189P18930Exhibit 710Exhibit 710 Regret MatrixRegret MatrixMinimax choiceMinimax choiceP190P19024-13=24-13=24-9=24-9=24-24=24-24=24-18=24-18=21-14=21-14=21-15=21-15=21-21=21-21=21-14=21-14=28-11=28-11=28-18=28-18=28-

42、15=28-15=28-28=28-28=31ReviewDecision-Making in an Uncertainty ConditionDecision-Making in an Uncertainty Conditionvv利益可能性的最大化抉择利益可能性的最大化抉择利益可能性的最大化抉择利益可能性的最大化抉择 Maximax:Maximax:the optimistic managers the optimistic managers choice to maximize the maximum payoff(choice to maximize the maximum payof

43、f(Think about theThink about the largest Possible gain)largest Possible gain)vv利益最低可能性的最大化决策利益最低可能性的最大化决策利益最低可能性的最大化决策利益最低可能性的最大化决策 Maximin:Maximin:the pessimistic the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoff(managers choice to maximize the minimum payoff(Think Think about the lowe

44、st Possible gainabout the lowest Possible gain)vv后悔程度最小化决策后悔程度最小化决策后悔程度最小化决策后悔程度最小化决策 Minimax:Minimax:the managers choice to the managers choice to minimize maximum regret.(minimize maximum regret.(Think about minimizing the Think about minimizing the Possible regretPossible regret)324.Decision-Maki

45、ng Styles 决策者的风格决策者的风格线性有逻辑的线性有逻辑的非线性直觉的非线性直觉的集体参与的决策集体参与的决策个人独断的决策个人独断的决策当机立断式当机立断式深思熟虑式深思熟虑式恰到好处式恰到好处式334.1 4.1 Linear-Non linear thinking style profileLinear-Non linear thinking style profile Linear thinking styleLinear thinking styleNonlinearNonlinear thinkingthinking stylestyleA decision style

46、A decision style characterized by a persons characterized by a persons preference for preference for using external using external data data and facts and and facts and processing this information processing this information through rational,logical through rational,logical thinkingthinkingA decisio

47、n style A decision style characterized by a persons characterized by a persons preference for internal preference for internal sources of information and sources of information and processing this information processing this information with with internal insights,internal insights,feelings,and hunc

48、hesfeelings,and hunches直觉直觉.34Exhibit 711Exhibit 711 Common Decision-Making Errors and BiasesCommon Decision-Making Errors and Biases4.2 4.2 12 Decision-Making Biases and Errors Decision-Making Biases and ErrorsP191P191354.2 4.2 12 Decision-Making Biases and ErrorsDecision-Making Biases and ErrorsHe

49、uristics Heuristics 启示法启示法Using“rules of thumb”to simplify decision making.Using“rules of thumb”to simplify decision making.1 1）Overconfidence Bias Overconfidence Bias 自负偏见自负偏见Holding unrealistically positive views of ones self and Holding unrealistically positive views of ones self and ones perform

50、ance.ones performance.2 2）Immediate Gratification Bias Immediate Gratification Bias 即时满足偏见即时满足偏见Choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards Choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs.and that to avoid immediate costs.36Decision-Making Biases and Error