咨询管理战略组织项目麦肯锡工具评估 MUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt

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1、-79-C.Bottom-up surveyMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-80-The bottom-up study will be an interactive process,taking views both from steel industry and steel plant makers into accountSlag supply 2020 bottom-up surveyAssessment stepsIssues to be addressedInformation sourcesraw material supplyavailable equipm

2、ent/market mixproductivity/cost positionexpansion/downsizing planslocational advantages/disadvantagesslag strategy:granulation rate,supply/delivery arrangementsmetallurgical process mixfeedstock structureprocess improvementsCurrent/future steel plant viability Personal interviewsBroker reportsPublis

3、hed infoFinancial dataCompany/plant strategic options/plans Personal interviewsTelephone interviewsDiscussion with plantmakersMost likely slag output volumesPersonal interviewsTelephone interviewsPostal survey123MUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-81-C.1 Plant surveyMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-82-Sample seaside

4、 steel plants bottom-up surveyBrazilChinaFranceJapanSouth KoreaSpainUkraineCST,TubaraoBaoshan,PudongUsinor,DunkerqueNippon,KimitsuPosco,KwangyangAceralia,Aviles+GijonAsowstal,MariupolCountryPlant locationSlag volume 1996(m tpy)Established HB relationship(Y/N)3.871.091.302.580.651.222.211.360.841.512

5、.811.582.39GroupAAAAABBBBBYNYNNNNNNYBBBFranceJapanGermanyUsinor,Fos-sur-MerStahlwerke,BremenNKK,FukuyamaRomaniaSidex GalatiNNYAustraliaBHP,Port KemblaItalyILP,TarantoGermanyTKS,SchwelgernTaiwanChina Steel,Lin HaiNetherlands Hoogovens,IjmuidenTurkeyErdemir,Kdz.EregliBBBB1.841.201.800.68NNNNCountryLoc

6、ationSlag volume 1996(m tpy)Established HB relationship(Y/N)1.183.120.890.570.380.230.940.801.13N/A0.960.410.88GroupBBBCCCCCCC(Y)NNYYNN(Y)NNCCCNNNUKBrit.Steel,ScunthorpeUSABethlehem,Sp.PointSouth Africa Iscor,SaldanhaBelgiumSidmar,GentArgentinaSiderar,San NicolasUkraineIlyich,MariupolSouth Korea Pos

7、co,PohangUKBrit.Steel,Port TalbotCCCChinaBeitai,PingshanFinlandRautaruukki,RaaheMexicoSicartsa,Laz.CardenasUkraineZaporozhtal,SaporoshijeUkraineDzershinsker,Dneprod.ItalyLucchini,PiombinoBrazilCSN,New plant ChinaGuangzhou,Baihedong0.260.34N/ANNNCIndiaVishakpatnam1.05NCBrazilCosipa,CubataoNMUC-0061-0

8、4238-02-02b.ppt-83-Each company/plant of interest will be evaluated on 5 different criteriaMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-84-C.2 Country surveyMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-85-For selected countries the steel and slag will be scrutinized in further detailChosen countriesJapanUkraineChinaBrazilIndiaMain aspec

9、tsImportance and outlook for steel sector(from regional/global perspective)Global share of major inputs:iron ore,coal,scrapRelative(cost)advantages of main plantsProfiles of main players(strengths&weaknesses)Likely share of global slag volumes(current/future)Country case studiesMUC-0061-04238-02-02b

10、.ppt-86-Country overview Brazil(1)Source:IISI,OECD;BP AmocoMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-87-Country overview Brazil(2)Source:IISI,OECD;BP AmocoMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-88-EnclosuresMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-89-Blended cement accounts for some 12%of global cement outputOverview cement industry1)sold ex-

11、BF for$1 10/t2)sold ex cement plant for$5080/t3)mix Portland/blended:1,500/180 m t(88%12%)Sand/gravelWaterCement mills conversion$510/tGBFs1)$630/tKlinker$1025/tGBFs(1060%)Klinker(9040%)Klinker3)Portland cement:OPC/CEM1 blended cement2):CEM 25GypsumConcrete1.500kg250kg250kg10kg1m3MUC-0061-04238-02-0

12、2b.ppt-90-1.Overview of processesMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-91-Smelting reduction processesProcessProcess ownerInstalled capacity m tInstalled unitsStatusTypicalplant sizem t paCommentBlast furnaceSMS Demag6215864.0Mature,fully optimized hot metal making technologyCommercialCompact blast furnaceSMS D

13、emagtbctbc1.0Currently being promoted on pellet/3rd party coke basisCommercialMini blast furnaceSMS Demagtbctbc0.250.5In the past,only viable in China and BrazilCommercialCorexVA-Tech4.850.81.5Fully developed,but complex/costly technologyCommercialCCFHoogovensOfficially stopped 1999 due to difficult

14、ies in finding partnersPilot plantHlsmeltRio Tinto0.110.1New 0.6 mt plant for feeding of EAFs under discussionDemo plantRedsmelt/InmetcoSMS Demag0.3(1)0.5Project at Siam Strip(Thailand)haltedCommercialIDIIron Dynamics0.510.5Project at IDI,Butler goes on,despite start-up problemsCommercialFinexPosco,

15、VA-Tech,RIST0.0510.05Posco intends to replace two 1 mt BFs with 1 Finex unit in 2010In trialsDIOSConsortium of Japanese steel makers0.210.15Aims at 2 mt units with 35%lower capital costs than equivalent BFPilot plantMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-92-Direct reduction processesProcessProcess ownerInstalled

16、 capacity m tInstalled unitsStatusTypicalplant sizem t paCommentGas basedCoal basedMidrexKobe/Midrex29.1330.51.4Currently developing large capacity DRI unit,Super Megamod:2.2 m tCommercialHYL-IIIHylsamex11.1120.30.7More hydrogen in reduction gas than Midrex.Direct DRI feed capabilityCommercialHYL-IH

17、ylsamex5.150.30.6No more plants being sold(Commercial)Finmet/FiorVA-Tech/Fior4.830.6Large cost overruns at Port Hedland.New unit sold to EgyptCommercialCircoredLurgi0.510.5Final stages of testing in Trinidad,start up scheduled for late 2000(Commercial)Iron carbideIron Carbide1.020.3Pilot plant close

18、d Jan 1999(Nucor,Trinidad)(Commercial)CircoferLurgi0.210.2Only pilot plant available in FrankfurtPilot plantSL/RNLurgi1.570.15No more plants being sold(Commercial)FastmetKobe/Midrex000.21st plant sold to Nippon Steel Oct 1999CommercialComet/SidcometSidmar1.52Pilot plant0.75Sidcomet process also incl

19、udes smelting of the DRI produced by CometMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-93-Steel making processesProcessProcess ownerInstalled capacity m tInstalled unitsStatusTypicalplant sizem t paCommentLD-converterSMS Demag+others50025024Ideally suited for flat steel products(high quality,low residuals)CommercialEl

20、ectric arc furnaceFuchs+others30014500.62Fully developed,highly adaptable technology:AC/DC,scrap preheatingCommercialElectric oxygen furnaceSMS Demag0011.5Only available for stainless steels.Expected launch for carbon steels in 2005Research stageConarcSMS Demag113.0Mixed operational modes:EAF+LDComm

21、ercialMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-94-2.IndiaMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-95-112India is the 10th largest steel producing nation of the world.Since 1990,the Indian steel sector has grown steadilySteel production in selected countries1)share of the TOP 10 in world crude steel production 545(68%)1)Sout Kore

22、a(42)India(24)China(108)Brazil(26)Germany(45)Russia(48)Japan(104)USA(98)100867565545754529994899290898989949810210412210910410910699103107127122125121116110164164151140140122135158147127113184163159146143106MUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-96-For the coming decade outlook for the Asian steel sector is posi

23、tiveWorld production trends in the steel industrySource:IISIMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-97-In particular,Indian steel industry poised for further growthSpecific steel consumption Far EastMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-98-On this basis,the Ministry of Steel forecasts further growth and increased export orie

24、ntation for the coming decadeLong-term outlook for India steel industrymtpySource:Ministry of Steel(Working Group for IX Five Year Plan)MUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-99-Steel consumption forecast to grow by 9%p.a.in the coming 5 years with CR and coated products gaining importanceForecast Indian steel d

25、emandmtpySource:Ministry of Steel(Working Group for IX Five Year Plan)MUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-100-As of 1996,SAIL still dominates the flat steel segmentMain Indian steel producers 1996-1997000 tSource:SSERC 8,010 3,860MUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-101-Like SAIL,Tata has chosen the vicinity to ore and

26、coal mines.Newcomers(Essar,Ispat)closer to Western coast demand centersMain Indian carbon steel flat products manufacturersMain plantsKerala100 kmGoaJammu and KashmirHimachal PradeshChandigarhPunjabRajasthanUttar PradeshGujaratMadhyaPradeshBiharOrissaAndhra PradeshMaharashtraTamil NaduKarnatakaSikki

27、mMeghalayaAssamArunachal PradeshManipurMizoramTripuraDelhiWest BengalCalcuttaBombayMadras46832157Haryana9MUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-102-The state-of-the-art HSM in Jamshedpur fully complies with the current and future customer needsMain Indian HR producersMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-103-JVSL and IIL ha

28、ve both opted for highly innovative steelmaking and/or rolling processesNew entrants in Indian HRC marketMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-104-3.ChinaMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-105-3.1 Trend 19901997MUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-106-Following vigorous growth since 1990,China has become the largest steel producin

29、g nation of the worldSteel production in selected countries1)share of the TOP 10 in world crude steel productionSout Korea(42)China(108)Brazil(26)Germany(45)Russia(48)Japan(104)USA(98)MUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-107-After strong imports in 1993 and 1994,Chinas ability to supply its own requirements ha

30、s noticeably improvedRolled steel market Chinam tMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-108-In term of tonnage,some of the largest steel manufacturers of the world are in ChinaLargest steel producing companies of the world 1997m t crude steel1)incl.Cockerill-Sambre,Belgium(6.4)MUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-109-Most

31、of the plants are however landlockedLocation of major Chinese steel plants 1997MUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-110-In China,the largest 10 steel producers account for almost 50%of total productionOverview of major Chinese steel plants 1997MUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-111-China foreign steel trade is focussed

32、 on Far East and Japan,Russian imports have significantly affected domestic pricesChina foreign steel trade 1997m t 12 7MUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-112-Traditionally,China has been an important net importer of steelTrade in semi-finished and finished products South East Asia 1997m t Imports:61.2 m t I

33、mports:51.7 m tSource:IISIMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-113-Nevertheless,Eastern European imports should not seriously affect domestic pricesMain deterrent for CIS import1.Pending anti-dumping suits by regional HR producers2.Low quality of the products3.Lack of reliable supply from CIS4.Long delivery le

34、adtimes(on average,3 months)5.Costly letters of credit(or advance payments)6.Restructuring of mills resulting in gradual closure of capacityMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-114-Tumbling demand and oversupply have led to a serious of price deterioration since mid-98HRC price outlookUS$/m tSource:Metal bulle

35、tinMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-115-3.2 Outlook 2010MUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-116-In spite of moderate growth forecasts worldwide,Chinas crude steel con-sumption increases significantly,mainly driven by a rising steel intensity Apparent crude steel consumptionm tSteel consumption per capitakgOthersCIS/

36、EasternAsiaex ChinaChinaNorthAmericaWesternEurope+1,5%p.a.656760810Growth19952000%p.a.2,40,41,21,02,80,782100120?380450EU(15)1997USA1997InternationalbenchmarkOutlookChinaSource:JP Morgan;IISI;Roland Berger&Partners analysisMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-117-In China,steel production via the EAF route gro

37、ws significantly.Nevertheless,scrap imports have played only a minor roleCrude steel production in China m tScrap supply in China000 tSource:IISI;Roland Berger&Partner analysis1214181940-601)electric Arc Furnace596695108150?26.527.932.633.846.0Worldwide share of EAF production%EAF1)Scrap supplyScrap

38、 importsMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-118-Strong HRC demand growth forecast in the Far East until 2005Western world1)market for HR flat productsm t p.a.Source:UN-Statistics;Roland Berger&Partners analysisMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-119-By the same token,additional HRC production of some 105 m t forecast w

39、ith future production mainly in China and South East AsiaHR flat products production 2005m t p.a.105Source:UN-Statistics;Roland Berger&Partners analysisIndustria-lized countriesMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-120-Consequently,an over-supply of HR flat products is likely in the Far Eastern markets in parti

40、cular after the market collapse in 1997/98HR flat market South East Asia1)Source:URoland Berger&Partners researchMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-121-An increasing dependence on imports of iron ore supply is very likelySource:IISIRaw material supply China(1)Iron oreImport%259287303325345ImportProduction13%

41、13%14%17%23%MUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-122-In spite of high output,coking units are obsolete and production levels are expected to fallRaw material supply China(2)Coke738011413612080Of which exports1248MUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-123-3.3 Main Chinese steel marketsMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-124-High leve

42、l of consumption of long products mainly due to construction industry(50%of total steel consumption)Rolled steel consumption China 1996 m tMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-125-Large China construction industry has the highest growth rate in Far EastMarket volume construction industry 1995US$bnSource:Nation

43、al Statistical Yearbooks;Ministries of ConstructionMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-126-Strong growth forecast in Far East automotive productionAutomotive worldwide 1997 units m All vehicles Source:DRIMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-127-Starting already from a high level,China will have one of the highest growth

44、s in vehicle production among Asian countriesVehicle production in Asia All vehicles000 unitsSource:DRIMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-128-4.Energy scenariosMUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-129-Scenario approach and methodology in four steps towards 3 consistent scenariosIdentification of uncertain parametersLib

45、eralization policyEnvironmental issuesNuclear policy(Germany)Strategic behavior of players(pricing,capacity closures)Gas prices developmentCoal prices development.Clustering of parameters to scenario driversFuel price development(parameters C1-C4)Market frame(parameters A1-A4)(parameters B1-B4)Scena

46、rio driversStrategic behavior of players Combination of scenario driversand selection of relevant scenariosS1Market frameStrategic behaviorFuel price developmentModerate changeBreak the rulesHigh pricesModerate changeFriendly cooperationLow pricesS2Free marketBreak the rulesHigh pricesS3Free marketF

47、riendly cooperationLow pricesDevelopment of consistent setsof parameter combinationsModerate changeAA1A2A3DriversParametersModerate changeFree marketBB1B2B3Break the rulesFriendly cooperationCC1C2C3High pricesLow prices1.2.4.3.MUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-130-Important parameters clustered to three sce

48、nario drivers reflecting the key uncertaintiesFuel price developmentStrategic behavior of playersMarket frameCBAC1 Gas pricesC2 Coal pricesC3 Prices for ligniteA1 Liberalization policyA2 New environmental driven taxesA3 Environmental issuesB1 Strategic behavior of major generatorsB2 Strategic behavi

49、or of end users(especially large customers)B3 Strategic behavior of new entrantsA4 Nuclear policyA5 Liquidity of power exchangeA6 Cross-border transaction pricesScenario drivers2.MUC-0061-04238-02-02b.ppt-131-Liberalization policyStepwise market opening with accordance to actual legal frameworkNo fu

50、rther exchangesNuclear policy(Germany)Full market opening latest in 2003(France/Belgium in 2005)Power exchanges in each countryNew environmental driven taxesEnvironmental issuesLiquidity of power exchangesCross-border transmission chargesTotal gross utilization time of less than 30 yearsFirst plant