罗宾斯管理学 决策.pptx

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1、61Definition-决策决策Decision -Making a choice from two or more alternatives.在两个或多个选项中作出选择Low level to high level managers make decisions.All organizational members make decisions that affect their jobs and organization they work for.第1页/共48页62Universality of decision makingManagers at all levels make d

2、ecisions，but particularly important to managersDecision making is part of all four managerial functions-Planning,Organizing,Leading,and ControllingMaking decisions is the essence of the management.Managers are called decision makers第2页/共48页How do you make decisions?入学考试面试题：为何考上海大学？考进了大学你准备做什么？未来的职业设

3、想是什么？你们的回答：上海大学很美丽、很有名我要认真学习，考证书？73第3页/共48页决策常见的问题决策常见的问题片面短见感性即刻满足前后矛盾短期决策与长期目标不一致等等74第4页/共48页How do managers make decisions?管理者如何作出贤明的决定？75第5页/共48页66Contents 1.Eight Steps in the Decision-Making Process2.Three Ways Managers Make Decisions3.Decisions and Decision-Making Conditions4.Decision-Making

4、Styles and how biases affect decision making 5.Challenges for decision makers(add.)Effective Decision Making Techniques6.Situations of decision makingChapterChapter3第6页/共48页What are the general factors affecting managers decision making?影响决策的因素影响决策的因素1.Process2.Approaches3.Types of decisions4.Condit

5、ions5.Managers6.Objectives7.Errors and Biases77第7页/共48页781.The Decision-Making Process决策过程决策过程第8页/共48页79Exhibit 71The Decision-Making ProcessP179The Decision-Making The Decision-Making Process Process includesincludes Eight steps from steps from identifying a problem to identifying a problem to eval

6、uating the decision evaluating the decision effectivenesseffectiveness出处：罗宾斯 管理学13e第9页/共48页决策过程决策过程Source:RobertN.LussierConcepts,Applications,Skill Development4e710第10页/共48页6112.The Ways Managers Making Decisions 管理者的决策方法管理者的决策方法第11页/共48页6122.1 Rational Decision Making approach 理性决策理性决策D Assumption

7、s of RationalityManagers make consistent,value-maximizing choices with specified constraints.Assumptions to decision makers:TheyAre perfectly rational,fully objective,and logical.明确目标，彻底逻辑，完全理性Have carefully defined the problem and identified all viable alternatives.清晰界定问题和全部选项Have a clear and speci

8、fic goal 明确具体目标Will select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organizations interests rather than in their personal interests.满足组织最大利益第12页/共48页6132.2 Bounded Rationality DM Approach 有限理性决策有限理性决策 D Bounded Rationality（有限理性）（有限理性）Decision making thats rational,but are limited(bounded)by an

9、 individuals ability to process information.Assumptions are that decision makers:Will not seek out or have knowledge of all alternativesWill satisfiedchoose the first alternative encountered that satisfactorily solves the problemrather than maximize the outcome of their decision by considering all a

10、lternatives and choosing the best.Ex:To find a job第13页/共48页 Most decisions that managers make dont fit the assumptions of perfect rationality,so they satisfice714第14页/共48页615后期决策受前期决策影响后期决策受前期决策影响Bounded Rationality（有限理性）Bounded rational decision making influenced byOrganizations culture,internal po

11、litics,power considerations,and Escalation of commitment（承诺升级）（承诺升级）:an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong.Ex:Challenger space shuttle disaster第15页/共48页6162.3 Intuitive Decision-making approach 直觉决策直觉决策The Role of IntuitionIntuitive decision maki

12、ng（直觉决策）Is making decisions on the basis of experience,feelings,and accumulated judgment.第16页/共48页617Exhibit 76What is Intuition?Five Different Aspects of IntuitionSource:Based on L.A.Burke and M.K.Miller,“Taking the Mystery Out of Intuitive Decision Making,”Academy of Management Executive,October 1

13、999,pp.9199.P184潜意识决策情感决策认知决策经验决策价值道德决策直觉第17页/共48页7183 Types of Decisions and Decision-Making Conditions 决策类型与决策条件第18页/共48页7193.1 Types of Problems&Decisions问题类型与决策类型问题类型与决策类型Structured ProblemsProgrammed DecisionUnstructured Problems Nonprogrammed Decision第19页/共48页6203.1 Types of DecisionsStructure

14、d Problems and Programmed DecisionsStructured Problems 结构性问题Definition:Straightforward,familiar,and easily defined problems 直接、熟悉并容易界定的问题Involve goals that clear.Are familiar(have occurred before).Are easily and completely definedinformation about the problem is available and complete.Example:a serv

15、er in a restaurant spills a drink on a customers coatProgrammed Decisions 程序化决策Definition:A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.Example:The manager offers to have the coat cleaned at restaurants expense第20页/共48页621(1)Programmed decision 程序化决策程序化决策Policy（政策）A general guideli

16、ne for making a decision about a structured problem.Procedure（程序）A series of interrelated steps that a manager can use to respond(applying a policy)to a structured problem.Rule（规则）An explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do.第21页/共48页622Example-Policy,Procedure,and R

17、ulePolicy（政策）Accept all customer-returned merchandise.Procedure（程序）Follow all steps for completing merchandise return documentation.Rules（规则）Managers must approve all refunds over$50.00.No credit purchases are refunded for cash.第22页/共48页623Problems and Decisions(contd)Unstructured Problems and Nonpr

18、ogrammed Decisions Unstructured Problems 结构不良问题Definition:Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete.Problems that will require custom-made solutions.Nonprogrammed Decisions 非程序化决策Definition:A unique and nonrecurring decision that requires a custom-made sol

19、ution 唯一的和不可重复的决策。Decisions that generate unique responses.第23页/共48页724Exhibit 77Programmed versus Nonprogrammed DecisionsP187第24页/共48页7253.2 Decision-Making Conditions 决策制定条件决策制定条件Certainty（确定性）（确定性）Definition:A situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every

20、 alternative choice is known.Example:where to deposit moneyRisk（风险性）（风险性）Definition:A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood(probability)of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives.Example:next pageP187第25页/共48页626Decision-Making ConditionsUncertaint

21、y（不确定性）（不确定性）Definition:A situation in which a decision maker has neither certainty nor reasonable probability estimates availableLimited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition.第26页/共48页627Deci

22、sion-Making ConditionsAn Example of Decision-Making in an Uncertainty ConditionMaximax:the optimistic managers choice to maximize the maximum payoffMaximin:the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoffMinimax:the managers choice to minimize maximum regret.第27页/共48页628Exhibit 79Payof

23、f MatrixExample:Which Strategy Will U Choose?Suppose you are a sales manager of VISAP189罗宾斯 管理学第28页/共48页629Exhibit 79Payoff MatrixMaxmax choiceMaxmin choiceP189第29页/共48页630Exhibit 710 Regret MatrixMinimax choiceP19024-13=24-9=24-24=24-18=21-14=21-15=21-21=21-14=28-11=28-18=28-15=28-28=第30页/共48页631Re

24、viewDecision-Making in an Uncertainty Condition利益可能性的最大化抉择利益可能性的最大化抉择 Maximax:the optimistic managers choice to maximize the maximum payoff(Think about the largest Possible gain)利益最低可能性的最大化决策利益最低可能性的最大化决策 Maximin:the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoff(Think about the lowest P

25、ossible gain)后悔程度最小化决策后悔程度最小化决策 Minimax:the managers choice to minimize maximum regret.(Think about minimizing the Possible regret)第31页/共48页6324.Decision-Making Styles 决策者的风格决策者的风格线性有逻辑的非线性直觉的集体参与的决策个人独断的决策当机立断式深思熟虑式恰到好处式第32页/共48页6334.1 Linear-Non linear thinking style profile Linear thinking styleN

26、onlinear thinking styleA decision style characterized by a persons preference for using external data and facts and processing this information through rational,logical thinkingA decision style characterized by a persons preference for internal sources of information and processing this information

27、with internal insights,feelings,and hunches直觉.第33页/共48页634Exhibit 711 Common Decision-Making Errors and Biases4.2 4.2 12 Decision-Making Biases and Errors Decision-Making Biases and ErrorsP191第34页/共48页6354.2 12 Decision-Making Biases and ErrorsHeuristics 启示法Using“rules of thumb”to simplify decision

28、making.1）Overconfidence Bias 自负偏见Holding unrealistically positive views of ones self and ones performance.2）Immediate Gratification Bias 即时满足偏见Choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs.第35页/共48页636Decision-Making Biases and Errors(contd)3）Anchoring Effect 锚

29、定效应Fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information.4）Selective Perception Bias 选择认识偏见Selecting organizing and interpreting events based on the decision makers biased perceptions.5）Confirmation Bias 证实偏见Seeking out information that reaffirms past choices and discounting contradict

30、ory information.第36页/共48页637Decision-Making Biases and Errors(contd)6）Framing Bias 框架效应偏见Selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects.7）Availability Bias 有效性（眼前）偏向Losing decision-making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events.8）Representation Bias

31、典型性偏见Drawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist.9）Randomness Bias 随机性偏见Creating unfounded meaning out of random events.第37页/共48页638Decision-Making Biases and Errors(contd)10）Sunk Costs Errors 沉没成本错误Forgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to

32、 future consequences.11）Self-Serving Bias 自利性偏向Taking quick credit for successes and blaming outside factors for failures.12）Hindsight Bias 后见偏向Mistakenly believing that an event could have been predicted once the actual outcome is known(after-the-fact).第38页/共48页How to avoid decision making bias and

33、 errors1.Being aware of them and then not using them2.Managers also should pay attention to“how”they make decisions and try to identify the heuristics they typically use and critically evaluate how appropriate those are.3.Helps from people around to identify weaknesses in their decision-making style

34、,and try to improve them第39页/共48页4.3 Overview of Managerial Decision MakingExhibit 712 Overview of Managerial Decision Making Exhibit 712 Overview of Managerial Decision Making 管理决策汇总图管理决策汇总图管理决策汇总图管理决策汇总图P192Linear thinking styleNonlinear thinking style Immediate time taken decision making styleAut

35、ocratic（个人）-Participative（集体）decision making style第40页/共48页Dealing with complex streams of decisions741第41页/共48页Be positive!Positively make your decisionsNot passively742第42页/共48页5.Situations of decision making 决策的情形决策的情形Time-时间是否充裕Information-信息与否充分Acceptance-相关者是否接受程度Ablity-能力是否匹配743第43页/共48页Situational Management Decision-Making ModelStep 1 情形诊断Step2 选择适当的决策方法风格744第44页/共48页决策的情形决策的情形745第45页/共48页小组作业小组作业-第三周问题：第三周问题：分析翻译行业面临的外部情形，根据作业模拟条件限制情形，草拟一份创业计划书分析崇明岛的休闲旅游市场情形，以及自行车休闲旅游业务特征，根据模拟案例给出的条件限制，分析决策：是否要实施业务多元化？746第46页/共48页747第47页/共48页748感谢您的观看！第48页/共48页