南方基金公司估值模型.xls

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1、公公司司名名称称：一一汽汽轿轿车车 000800主主营营业业务务收收入入(万万元元)2001 A2002 A2003 1Q2003 2Q2003 3Q2003 4Q E整整车车289,279.55421,268.64114,451.42187,774.39301,439.78285,814.02 红旗114,451.4268,523.00101,225.0060,325.00 MAZDA-119,251.39200,214.78225,489.02备备件件55,247.3754,289.5211,286.6713,292.2814,314.8715,746.36合合计计344,526.9247

2、5,558.16125,738.09201,066.67315,754.65301,560.38主主营营业业务务成成本本(万万元元)2001 A2002 A2003 1Q2003 2Q2003 3Q2003 4Q E整整车车244,971.40332,297.7484,644.04142,643.37232,525.32215,307.75 红旗84,644.0457,163.1987,821.5852,337.24 MAZDA-85,480.18144,703.74162,970.51备备件件46,785.2842,823.7115,470.282,788.9510,767.6011,844

3、.36合合计计291,756.68375,121.45100,114.32145,432.32243,292.92227,152.11主主营营业业务务成成本本/收收入入(%)2001 A2002 A2003 1Q2003 2Q2003 3Q整整车车84.68%78.88%73.96%75.97%77.14%红旗73.96%83.42%86.76%MAZDA-71.68%72.27%备备件件84.68%78.88%137.07%20.98%75.22%合合计计84.68%78.88%79.62%72.33%77.05%毛毛利利(万万元元)2001 A2002 A2003 1Q2003 2Q200

4、3 3Q2003 4Q E整整车车44,308.1588,970.9029,807.3845,131.0268,914.4670,506.28 红旗29,807.3811,359.8113,403.427,987.76 MAZDA-33,771.2155,511.0462,518.51备备件件8,462.0911,465.81-4,183.6110,503.333,547.273,902.00合合计计52,770.24100,436.7125,623.7755,634.3572,461.7374,408.27毛毛利利率率(%)2001 A2002 A2003 1Q2003 2Q2003 3Q整

5、整车车15.32%21.12%26.04%24.03%22.86%红旗26.04%16.58%13.24%MAZDA-28.32%27.73%备备件件15.32%21.12%-37.07%79.02%24.78%合合计计15.32%21.12%20.38%27.67%22.95%整整车车销销售售数数量量(辆辆)2002 A2003 E2004 E2005 E2006 E2007 E 红旗26,55726,00024,00024,00024,00024,000 销售量增长(%)-2.1%-7.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%MAZDA-24,00050,00065,00081,250101,563

6、销售量增长(%)-108.3%30.0%25.0%25.0%合计26,55750,00074,00089,000105,250125,563 销售量增长(%)-88.3%48.0%20.3%18.3%19.3%主主营营业业务务收收入入2002 A2003 E2004 E2005 E2006 E2007 E整整车车421,268.64889,479.611,364,777.441,519,510.131,651,489.291,805,761.80 红旗421,268.64344,524.42286,220.29257,598.26231,838.43208,654.59 MAZDA0.0054

7、4,955.191,078,557.151,261,911.871,419,650.851,597,107.21备备件件54,289.5254,640.1859,694.3965,216.1271,248.6277,839.11合合计计475,558.16944,119.791,424,471.841,584,726.251,722,737.901,883,600.91 主主营营业业务务收收入入增增长长(%)-98.53%50.88%11.25%8.71%9.34%主主营营业业务务成成本本/收收入入(%)2002 A2003 E2004 E2005 E2006 E2007 E整整车车84.68

8、%75.90%红旗84.68%81.84%81.84%81.84%81.84%81.84%MAZDA-72.14%72.14%72.14%72.14%72.14%备备件件84.68%74.80%74.80%74.80%74.80%74.80%合合计计84.68%75.84%74.20%73.83%73.56%73.33%2003 1Q2003 2Q2003 3Q2003 4Q E 红旗7,8055,2718,0984,82614.6613.0012.5012.5010.8410.8410.8410.84 MAZDA05,2878,8019,912-22.5622.7522.75-16.1716

9、.4416.44整整车车销销售售数数量量(辆辆)2003 012003 022003 032003 042003 052003 06 红旗3,0161,9872,8021,7011,2112,359 销售量增长(%)-34.1%41.0%-39.3%-28.8%94.8%MAZDA0009441,8722,471 销售量增长(%)-98.3%32.0%合计2,6453,0834,830 销售量增长(%)-#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!16.6%56.7%轿车价格10万以下10-15万15-20万20万以上2002年市场占有率20.90%37.60%18.40%22.30%00094

10、41872247126752957316934703016198728021701121123592790246928391895图图：20032003年年马马自自达达M6M6、红红旗旗月月销销售售量量2003 012003 02 2003 032003 042003 052003 062003 072003 082003 092003 1005001000150020002500300035004000 MAZDA 红旗0.2090.3760.1840.22310万以下10-15万15-20万20万以上红红旗旗MAZDA2001 A2002 A2003 1H应收帐款+其他应收款43,3023

11、7,56637,339三年以上款项8,78419,72920,638三年以上款项比例(%)20.3%52.5%55.3%三年以上款项坏帐准备3,7238,9769,247坏帐准备/应收款(%)42.4%45.5%44.8%2001 A2002 A2003 1H存货-产成品40,40368,38167,352 产成品跌价准备4702,3672,337 产成品跌价准备比例1.16%3.46%3.47%市市净净率率ROE净净利利率率资资产产周周转转率率权权益益乘乘数数600104上上海海汽汽车车3.5914.84%27.01%0.461.28927一一汽汽夏夏利利4.8916.49%11.82%0.

12、502.87625长长安安汽汽车车4.5925.43%10.58%1.142.24600006东东风风汽汽车车2.7513.74%9.80%0.771.952004年年M6销销售售量量（辆辆）35,00040,00045,00050,00055,000主营业务收入增长率16.6%28.0%39.5%50.9%62.3%净净利利润润（万万元元）70,01378,36886,72295,077103,432净利率6.36%6.48%6.59%6.67%6.75%EPS（元元）0.4300.4820.5330.5840.636P/E2017161413市场零售价265,800经销商费用10,000主

13、营业务收入218,632100.0%增值税（17%）37,168主营业务成本161,50073.9%出厂价218,632主营业务税金及附加17,4918.0%消费税（8%）17,491管理费用2,5001.1%进口KD件160,000营业费用8,3333.8%国产零部件与组装1,500利润28,80913.2%4%14%7%60%0%1%3%11%M6M6主主营营业业务务收收入入组组成成经销商费用增值税（17%）消费税（8%）进口KD件国产零部件与组装固定成本摊销广告费用摊销利润0.2090.3760.1840.22310万以下10-15万15-20万20万以上固定成本摊销2,500广告费用摊

14、销8,333利润28,809经销商费用10,000增值税（17%）37,168消费税（8%）17,491进口KD件160,000国产零部件与组装1,500固定成本摊销2,500广告费用摊销8,333利润28,8094%14%7%60%0%1%3%11%M6M6主主营营业业务务收收入入组组成成经销商费用增值税（17%）消费税（8%）进口KD件国产零部件与组装固定成本摊销广告费用摊销利润2003 E2003 1-62003 1-9889,479.61302,225.81603,665.59344,524.42544,955.1954,640.1824,578.9538,893.82944,119.

15、79326,804.76642,559.412003 E2003 1-62003 1-9675,120.48227,287.41459,812.73281,966.05393,154.4340,871.1918,259.2329,026.83715,991.67245,546.64488,839.562003 1-62003 1-975.20%76.17%74.29%74.63%75.14%76.08%2003 E2003 1-62003 1-9214,359.1474,938.40143,852.8662,558.37151,800.7713,768.996,319.729,866.9922

16、8,128.1281,258.12153,719.852003 1-62003 1-924.80%23.83%25.71%25.37%24.86%23.92%2008 E2003 1-92003 1-1024,00021,17423,0690.0%121,87514,08817,55820.0%145,87535,26240,62716.2%2008 E2003 1-91,912,664.92603,665.59187,789.131,724,875.7985,039.2338,893.821,997,704.15642,559.416.06%2008 E2003 1-981.84%72.14

17、%74.80%73.17%2003 072003 082003 092003 102003 112003 122,7902,4692,8391,89518.3%-11.5%15.0%-33.3%-100.0%#DIV/0!2,6752,9573,1693,4708.3%10.5%7.2%9.5%-100.0%#DIV/0!5,4655,4266,0085,36513.1%-0.7%10.7%-10.7%-100.0%#DIV/0!0009441872247126752957316934703016198728021701121123592790246928391895图图：20032003年年

18、马马自自达达M6M6、红红旗旗月月销销售售量量2003 012003 02 2003 032003 042003 052003 062003 07 2003 082003 092003 1005001000150020002500300035004000 MAZDA 红旗PRICEBVTATOTAL13.85973,4301,244,293252,0008.73284,554816,215159,51716.57442,738991,879122,66710.81392,980767,837100,0004%14%7%60%0%1%3%11%M6M6主主营营业业务务收收入入组组成成经销商费用增

19、值税（17%）消费税（8%）进口KD件国产零部件与组装固定成本摊销广告费用摊销利润4%14%7%60%0%1%3%11%M6M6主主营营业业务务收收入入组组成成经销商费用增值税（17%）消费税（8%）进口KD件国产零部件与组装固定成本摊销广告费用摊销利润公公司司名名称称：一一汽汽轿轿车车 0008000008001、经经营营活活动动2001 A2002 A2003 1-92003 E2004 E主营业务收入同比增长率-38.0%-98.5%50.9%主营业务成本/主营业务收入79.7%76.6%76.1%75.8%74.2%主营业务税金及附加/主营业务收入4.98%2.24%6.27%6.27

20、%6.27%营业费用/主营业务收入5.92%6.65%5.55%5.60%5.60%管理费用/主营业务收入8.09%7.65%5.92%6.00%6.00%财务费用/主营业务收入-0.92%-0.82%0.28%0.09%-0.09%实际税率63.4%23.4%4.6%6.0%15.0%股利分配比率335.5%131.7%-75.0%75.0%2、营营运运资资金金2001 A2002 A2003 1-92003 E2004 E货币资金/主营业务收入65.55%55.40%60.40%65.00%20.00%应收帐款周转天数(相对于主营业务收入)-24.116.115.015.0存货周转天数(相

21、对于主营业务成本)-122.680.360.060.0应付帐款周转天数(相对于主营业务成本)-99.0114.885.085.0预付帐款增加 /主营业务成本-0.39%0.38%0.50%0.50%待摊费用增加 /营业费用和管理费用-0.28%0.22%0.22%0.00%预收帐款(负债)增加 /主营业务收入-2.06%1.51%1.51%1.51%预提费用增加/营业费用和管理费用-0.09%29.28%30.00%0.00%其他流动资产增加/主营业务收入增加-0.00.0其他流动负债增加/主营业务收入增加-0.00.0其他长期资产增加/主营业务收入增加-0.00.0其他长期负债增加/主营业务

22、收入增加-0.00.0其他长期资产增加/主营业务收入增加-0.00.0其他长期负债增加/主营业务收入增加-0.00.0坏帐准备/应收帐款19.21%25.94%-28.00%28.00%短期投资跌价准备0.00.00.00.00.0存货跌价准备(含工程亏损准备)5.52%4.33%3.50%3.50%长期投资减值准备0.00.00.00.00.0固定资产减值准备0.54%0.23%0.08%在建工程减值准备0.00.00.00.00.03、资资本本性性投投资资a、假定固定资产采用直线法折旧b、现有固定资产和新建固定资产的折旧年限均为845年，残值率3，年折旧率为2.1612.13.c、各年的固

23、定资产投资如下：d、无形资产无采用直线法折旧2003 1H2003 E2004 E固定资产投资42,000.0120,000.0无形资产投资137.20.04、债债务务和和利利息息a、公司最低现金余额为主营业务收入20.00%b、公司长期银行债务，利率为6.00%2003 1H2003 E2004 Ec、公司现金不足时增加循环贷款，利率为4.00%0.00.00.0d、公司现金余额时利息收入，利率为2.00%5、短短期期投投资资当年变现2005 E2006 E2007 E2008 E11.3%8.7%9.3%6.1%73.8%73.6%73.3%73.2%6.27%6.27%6.27%6.27

24、%5.60%5.60%5.60%5.60%6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%-0.35%-0.41%-0.48%-0.55%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%75.0%75.0%75.0%75.0%2005 E2006 E2007 E2008 E20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%15.015.015.015.060.060.060.060.085.085.085.085.00.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.51%1.51%1.51%1.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00.00.00.00.00.00

25、.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.028.00%28.00%28.00%28.00%0.00.00.00.03.50%3.50%3.50%3.50%0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.02005 E2006 E2007 E2008 E60,000.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.02005 E2006 E2007 E2008 E0.00.00.00.0公公司司名名称称：一一汽汽轿轿车车 000800000800（单位：万元)利利润润表表会计年度截止日：12/312001 A2002 A2003 1-920

26、03 E2004 E主主营营业业务务收收入入344,526.92475,558.16642,559.41944,119.791,424,471.84增长率（YOY)38.0%98.5%50.9%减：折扣与折让主主营营业业务务收收入入净净额额344,526.92475,558.16642,559.41944,119.791,424,471.84减：主营业务成本274,590.32364,448.37488,839.56715,991.671,057,018.63主营业务税金及附加17,166.3610,673.0840,295.1659,196.3189,314.38主主营营业业务务利利润润52

27、,770.24100,436.71113,424.69168,931.81278,138.82毛利率15.3%21.1%17.7%17.9%19.5%加：其他业务利润87.26102.25773.84773.840.00减：存货跌价损失-1,490.044,384.87营业费用20,378.9831,642.4235,679.0152,870.7179,770.42管理费用27,882.3136,403.5738,034.0556,647.1985,468.31利息费用122.17186.877,299.287,689.25利息收入8,771.188,985.72汇兑损失财务费用-3,170.

28、43-3,897.111,813.12828.09-1,296.48 营营业业利利润润7,766.6436,390.0838,672.3560,849.70109,811.70加：投资收益-1,157.53402.291,021.802,043.60加：期货收益补贴收入营业外收入1.040.6816.1416.14减：营业外支出942.20943.17-737.53-737.53加：以前年度损益调整税税前前利利润润6,825.4834,290.0639,828.3162,625.17111,855.30减：所得税4,327.348,038.431,842.393,757.5116,778.29

29、实际税率63.4%23.4%4.6%6.0%15.0%加：财政返还0.000.00减：少数股东损益7.27153.46553.97553.97加：未确认的投资损失-65.45-1,381.17-4,985.76-4,985.76减：购并利润净净利利润润2,425.4224,717.0032,446.1953,327.9395,077.00净利率0.7%5.2%5.0%5.6%6.7%增长率(%)-919.1%115.8%78.3%发行在外股份数量(万股）162,750.0162,750.0162,750.0162,750.0162,750.0EPS0.0150.1520.1990.3280.5

30、84摊薄EPS增长率-919.1%115.8%78.3%股股利利8,137.5032,550.0039,995.9571,307.75每每股股股股利利0.0500.2000.2460.438增长率-300.0%22.9%78.3%未未分分配配利利润润-5,712.08-7,833.0013,331.9823,769.25报报告告期期股股价价200311248.402001 A2002 A2003 1-92003 E2004 EP/E563.6555.3131.6025.6414.38P/B3.033.062.832.942.80D/P0.60%2.38%-2.93%5.22%BV per sh

31、are2.772.742.972.853.002001 A2002 A2003 1-92003 E2004 EROE0.54%5.54%6.71%11.48%19.47%净净利利率率0.70%5.20%5.05%5.65%6.67%资资产产周周转转率率0.570.710.770.861.57权权益益乘乘数数1.351.491.722.361.862001 A2002 A2003 1-92003 E2004 EEBIT/I37.6173.9-8.414.1资资产产负负债债率率26.1%33.2%41.8%57.7%46.2%2005 E2006 E2007 E2008 E1,584,726.25

32、1,722,737.901,883,600.911,997,704.1511.3%8.7%9.3%6.1%1,584,726.251,722,737.901,883,600.911,997,704.151,170,004.131,267,233.861,381,214.201,461,701.0299,362.34108,015.67118,101.78125,256.05315,359.79347,488.37384,284.94410,747.0819.9%20.2%20.4%20.6%0.000.000.000.00-3,084.764,203.57-2,892.013,818.1688

33、,744.6796,473.32105,481.65111,871.4395,083.58103,364.27113,016.05119,862.25836.930.000.000.006,375.557,088.518,973.9310,946.95-5,538.61-7,088.51-8,973.93-10,946.95140,154.92150,535.72177,653.18186,142.192,043.602,043.602,043.602,043.60142,198.52152,579.32179,696.78188,185.7921,329.7822,886.9026,954.

34、5228,227.8715.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%120,868.74129,692.42152,742.26159,957.927.6%7.5%8.1%8.0%27.1%7.3%17.8%4.7%162,750.0162,750.0162,750.0162,750.00.7430.7970.9390.98327.1%7.3%17.8%4.7%90,651.5597,269.31114,556.70119,968.440.5570.5980.7040.73727.1%7.3%17.8%4.7%30,217.1832,423.1038,185.5739,989.482005 E200

35、6 E2007 E2008 E11.3110.548.958.552.642.482.322.176.63%7.12%8.38%8.78%3.193.393.623.872005 E2006 E2007 E2008 E23.31%23.54%25.92%25.42%7.63%7.53%8.11%8.01%1.751.681.741.671.751.861.841.902005 E2006 E2007 E2008 E160.8#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!42.8%46.2%45.7%47.5%公公司司名名称称：一一汽汽轿轿车车 000800000800（单位：万元)资资产产负负债债

36、表表会计年度截止日：12/312001 A2002 A2003 1-92003 E2004 E资产货货币币资资金金225,825.78263,440.57388,102.02613,677.86284,894.37短期投资300.00500.00500.000.00减：短期投资跌价准备短期投资0.00300.00500.00500.000.00应收票据41,945.3253,734.96109,523.84109,523.840.00应收股利754.16应收利息应收帐款37,813.6631,770.3825,099.4140,032.4077,047.48其他应收款5,488.485,796

37、.113,734.430.000.00减：坏帐准备8,320.309,744.5311,209.0721,573.29应收帐款净额34,981.8227,821.9628,833.8428,823.3355,474.19预付帐款3,215.621,792.583,626.105,372.5410,657.63应收补贴款存货133,217.33124,279.0196,238.62111,115.51236,397.46其中:工程施工减：存货跌价准备(含工程亏损准备)7,347.755,379.083,889.048,273.91存货净额125,869.58118,899.9396,238.62

38、107,226.47228,123.55内部往来待摊费用205.1915.11180.00256.05256.05待处理流动资产净损失一年内到期的长期债券投资其他流动资产0.000.00流流动动资资产产总总额额432,043.31466,759.26627,004.43865,380.09579,405.79长期股权投资14,748.5416,187.6916,673.2716,187.6916,187.69长期债权投资长期投资合计14,748.5416,187.6916,673.2716,187.6916,187.69减：长期投资减值准备长长期期投投资资净净额额14,748.5416,187

39、.6916,673.2716,187.6916,187.69其中：合并价差-214.71-214.71-214.71股权投资差额-177.63固定资产原值235,968.27238,120.19259,291.21减：累计折旧93,211.30102,128.00106,260.58118,566.69142,656.75固定资产净值142,756.98135,992.19153,030.63减：固定资产减值准备764.20315.75126.17315.75315.75固定资产净额141,992.78135,676.44152,904.46工程物资在建工程8,435.9539,045.731

40、8,612.1319,522.879,761.43减：在建工程减值准备0.000.00固定资产清理772.68待处理固定资产净损失固固定定资资产产合合计计150,428.73174,722.17172,289.27200,283.48296,193.42无形资产130.31621.34758.50742.97727.43递延资产开办费长期待摊费用11,909.308,460.6014,715.3014,715.3014,715.30其他长期资产0.000.00其中：临时设施净值无无形形资资产产及及其其他他资资产产合合计计12,039.619,081.9415,473.8015,458.2715

41、,442.73递延税款借项资资产产总总额额609,260.19666,751.06831,440.771,097,309.52907,229.63负债和股东权益循循环环贷贷款款40,200.0022,348.2555,263.60342,615.5741,846.70应付票据8,000.00应付帐款77,680.36120,029.15187,434.04213,446.42278,863.63预收帐款(负债)5,995.9515,810.8625,538.5430,067.0751,576.59代销商品款应付工资2,601.281,927.071,058.900.000.00应付福利190.

42、08101.99108.060.000.00应付股利8,163.2032,582.652,047.63应交税金7,300.041,174.1431,258.420.000.00其他应交款2,254.702,272.854,136.69其他应付款7,999.956,585.975,571.060.000.00预提费用880.50943.7422,528.2833,799.1133,799.11一年内到期的长期负债242.867.007.007.00其他流动负债流流动动负负债债153,508.93211,783.67334,952.23619,935.17406,086.03长期银行贷款0.000

43、.00应付债券长期应付款3,497.543,497.543,497.543,497.543,497.54住房周转金其他长期负债2,167.345,838.129,284.229,284.229,284.22长长期期负负债债合合计计5,664.889,335.6612,781.7512,781.7612,781.76递延税款贷项负负债债总总额额159,173.81221,119.32347,733.99632,716.93418,867.79少数股东权益-711.18-557.72-3.74-3.74-3.74股本162,750.00162,750.00162,750.00减：已归还投资股本净额

44、162,750.00162,750.00162,750.00162,750.00162,750.00资本公积金241,821.30241,827.79241,916.82241,916.82241,916.82其中：补充流动资本盈余公积金19,686.8825,181.7325,181.7325,181.7325,181.73其中：公益金7,562.2310,309.6610,309.66未确认的投资损失-6,615.33-5,234.16-248.41-248.41-248.41未分配利润33,154.7121,664.1054,110.2934,996.0858,765.33外币报表折算差

45、额-0.010.100.100.10资本汇差调整股股东东权权益益合合计计450,797.56446,189.46483,710.53464,596.32488,365.57负负债债和和股股东东权权益益609,260.19666,751.06831,440.771,097,309.51907,229.62检查0.000.000.000.010.012005 E2006 E2007 E2008 E352,660.24356,190.56541,202.79553,492.370.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0053,203.9988,39

46、0.9066,425.6197,769.250.000.000.000.0014,897.1224,749.4518,599.1727,375.3938,306.8763,641.4547,826.4470,393.8616,507.6522,843.8229,749.8937,058.40148,261.43268,363.40185,734.42294,824.825,189.159,392.726,500.7010,318.87143,072.28258,970.68179,233.71284,505.95256.05256.05256.05256.050.000.000.000.005

47、50,803.10701,902.57798,268.88945,706.6316,187.6916,187.6916,187.6916,187.6916,187.6916,187.6916,187.6916,187.6916,187.6916,187.6916,187.6916,187.69174,532.49209,101.08243,816.09278,604.32315.75315.75315.75315.754,880.722,440.361,220.18610.090.000.000.000.00324,317.68289,749.09255,034.08220,245.85711

48、.90696.37680.83665.3014,715.3014,715.3014,715.3014,715.300.000.000.000.0015,427.2015,411.6715,396.1315,380.60906,735.661,023,251.011,084,886.781,197,520.770.000.000.000.00266,069.80324,148.71319,156.54361,635.7275,505.96101,519.30129,961.68160,127.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.

49、000.000.000.0033,799.1133,799.1133,799.1133,799.11375,374.87459,467.12482,917.32555,561.840.000.000.000.003,497.543,497.543,497.543,497.549,284.229,284.229,284.229,284.2212,781.7612,781.7612,781.7612,781.76388,156.63472,248.88495,699.08568,343.60-3.74-3.74-3.74-3.74162,750.00162,750.00162,750.00162,

50、750.00241,916.82241,916.82241,916.82241,916.8225,181.7325,181.7325,181.7325,181.73-248.41-248.41-248.41-248.4188,982.52121,405.62159,591.19199,580.670.100.100.100.10518,582.76551,005.86589,191.43629,180.91906,735.651,023,251.001,084,886.771,197,520.760.010.010.010.01公公司司名名称称：一一汽汽轿轿车车 000800000800（单位