ADL+超越幻想的元宇宙-96正式版.doc

《ADL+超越幻想的元宇宙-96正式版.doc》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《ADL+超越幻想的元宇宙-96正式版.doc（100页珍藏版）》请在淘文阁 - 分享文档赚钱的网站上搜索。

1、*Synthetic world, real economyThe Metaverse, beyond fantasy$ynth3t1( w0rld, r3al 3(0n0my*09 / 2022REPORTWe are not on our screens; we are playing hide-and-seek with our friends in Roblox. Maya and Iseline, 12 years old, March 2020, first lockdown2The Metaverse,beyond fantasy$ynth3t1( w0rld, r3al 3(0

2、n0my1Blue Shift / REPORT 002AuthorsDr. Albert Meige, Director of Blue Shift, Arthur D. Little Juan Abascal, Consultant, Arthur D. Little Rick Eagar, Partner Emeritus, Arthur D. LittleMichael Papadopoulos, Chief Architect, Arthur D. LittlePrefacePrimavera De FilippiArtist-in-residenceSamuel Babinet1

3、Synthetic world, real economy3CONTENT-CONTENT-CONTENT-CONTENT-4Executive summary6Preface8Preamble101. The Metaverse: The future12version of the InternetInterlude #1: Defining the26Metaverse2. The Metaverse: Not for30another decadeInterlude #2: Building the48Metaverse3. Proto-metaverses:52Virtual wor

4、lds for realeconomy, today4. The way forward68Appendix #1: Experience74continuum use casesAppendix #2: Technology90readiness levelsBlue Shift / REPORT 002ExecutivesummaryFor many, the term “Metaverse” first entered their consciousness when Facebook changed its name to Meta in later 2021. At the time

5、, many people assumed it was merely a passing trend, focused on gamers and younger audiences, with little or no relevance to them or their busi-nesses. However, key players and consultancies have since been falling over themselves to declare its huge potential, outdoing each other with the scale of

6、their market forecasts. In this report we have sought to pro-vide a realistic picture for businesses, focusing in particular on the tech-nologies that are necessary to realize the Metaverse.It is important to recognize that the Metaverse is not a new con-cept. The reason it is high on the agenda tod

7、ay is that we are seeing a rapid acceleration of development activity and usage adoption. This acceleration is driven by the convergence of three industries: gaming; collaboration and productivity tools; and social media and networks. The acceleration is also fueled by the confluence of key trends i

8、n user behaviors, software, and hardware development.Businesses should not underestimate the importance and potential of the Metaverse. Put simply, it promises to be the future version of the Internet, powered with new properties that will open up new usages and business models in a similar way to h

9、ow the smart-phone transformed the Web.6Instead of a single, unified Metaverse, businesses face today a worldof unconnected proto-metaverses.Forecasting the size of the market is difficult. If key enabling tech-nologies are included, such as artificial intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), an

10、d blockchain, as well as the required digital infra-structure development, then the market could easily reach several trillion euros by 2030. However, we advise caution, as some of this market represents substitution rather than genuinely new market space. Our more conservative view suggests an incr

11、emental market, excluding infrastructure, of perhaps 500 billion by 2030, with a 30%-40% growth. In any case, however you define it, the Metaverse market is enormous and very dynamic.To help understand the Metaverse and its current development status, we developed a six-layer architectural framework

12、. Using this analysis, we concluded that, in contrast to what many observers are saying, the underlying technology to enable the Metaverse as the complete “future version of the Internet” wont be fully available for around a decade. This is something that businesses need to be aware of.Instead of a

13、single, unified Metaverse, businesses face today a world of unconnected proto-metaverses. That said, there are still huge opportunities. Despite the remaining technological challenges, businesses need to take steps now to understand the current market and position themselves for the future.In summar

14、y, we believe that among all the trends and factors cur-rently shaping the Metaverse, three of them are especially critical because they combine high potential impact and high uncertainty. These three critical factors are:1. Immersivity. The development of new augmented reality/ mixed reality (AR/MR

15、) technologies that effectively overcome current technical obstacles would be a strong accelerator of new usages in the coming years. In the same way that smart-phones made the digital economy shift from computers to mobiles, we believe that user-acceptable AR/MR glasses would drive a similar shift

16、from screen to Metaverse.2. Interoperability. Interoperability is essential to provide a true seamless experience to users and to allow them to share resources, irrespective of their access platform. However, due to diverging interests between vendors, users, and other players in the value chain, th

17、ere is no guarantee that this will be achieved.3. Abundance. In the physical world, scarcity drives the value of assets in a market economy. In the traditional digital economy, since a digital file can be duplicated at no cost, scarcity was reintroduced artificially through systems such as digital r

18、ights management. In a virtual world with blockchain and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), a new economic paradigm of “abundance” may appear, implying a more fundamental value shift from physical assets to experience and, perhaps, status. The extent to which this will happen, and its implications for busi

19、ness, are uncertain.Blue Shift / REPORT 0027Blue Shift / REPORT 002Prefaceby PrimaveraDe FilippiHaving discovered the Internet at a very young age, I spent most of my childhood exploring the new opportunities of this virtual environment socializing with people all over the world, traveling through t

20、he blue trails of hyperlinks, and making software to do things not previously pos-sible. Similarly, today I am fascinated by the potential of the Metaverse. This new virtual environment in which anything is possible a place where you can be anyone you want to be, do anything you want to do, and go a

21、nywhere you want to go.8I am confident that the Metaverse will eventually become an ineluc-table component of our everyday reality whether that is through virtual reality (VR), augmented reality AR, or extended reality (XR) and that it will change the way we live, work, and play in ways that we cann

22、ot even imagine. As an artist, I am excited about all the new opportunities of artistic production and creative expression that this new medium will engender. In a world where there is no sky, imagina-tion is the only limit that can hold us back.But what is the Metaverse, exactly? Very few people ca

23、n give a precise answer to this question, and those who do might possibly change their minds after reading this Report. Indeed, as this Report shows, the Metaverse as we envision it does not exist (yet). All we have are walled gardens siloed virtual worlds competing with one another in order to beco

24、me “the” Metaverse. But if the Internet has taught us anything, its that interoperability is crucial and that open permissionless innovation is key to any flourishing digital ecosystem.All the commercial opportunities of the Metaverse have attracted the attention of many new businesses, eager to est

25、ablish them-selves in this new virtual landscape. Yet, the Metaverse can only be what we make of it. And as the short history of the Internet has shown, there will always be a battle between those who see the Metaverse as a new opportunity to build an open and participa-tive society, and those who s

26、ee it as a means to promote their own vested interests and economic profits.As a legal scholar and digital activist, I am today committed to ensuring that the Metaverse whatever direction it takes will become a powerful tool for good that can help us build a better world, one where new communities c

27、an emerge and collaboration can strive. I hope this Report will inspire you to push toward the same direction.Blue Shift / REPORT 0029Blue Shift / REPORT 002PreambleOver 20 years ago, without knowing it, I was contributing modestly to some of the technological bricks that underlie the Metaverse. I w

28、as finishing my studies as a telecom engineer and, in 2001, begin-ning my internship at the Australian National University (ANU), where I would explore the frontiers of VR, which already fascinated me at the time. A year later, I started my PhD in computational physics, still at the ANU. During a sc

29、reening of the film The Matrix, I had the chance to meet the Australian philosopher David Chalmers, a specialist in the nature of reality and consciousness, who was giving a lecture entitled “The Matrix as Metaphysics.” Exciting!Since that time, digital and synthetic worlds have never ceased to fasc

30、inate me. They fascinate me as technologies, and also as sources of disruption in terms of uses and business models. They fascinate me also as vectors of societal and anthropological trans-formation. And finally, they fascinate me as sources of dizzying eth-ical and philosophical questions.In fact,

31、some, like the philosopher Nick Bostrom2 or the entrepreneur Elon Musk,3 think that the world we live in what we call reality is in fact a simulation. In a nutshell, the argument goes like this: (1) if humans dont become extinct and (2) if humans dont decide against running so-called “ancestor simul

32、ations” (i.e., simulations aiming at simulating the apparition and evolution of life), then (3) there is a point in time when humanity will reach enough technological maturity to be able to run such simulations. In which case, there will be a lot more simulated worlds than there are real worlds. It

33、follows that the probability that we are not in a simulation today is actually very small.But back to our “real world.” During the first COVID-19 lockdown in March 2020, when my twin daughters were playing hide-and-seek with their friends on Roblox which I thought was just a teen video game I realiz

34、ed that the vast majority of young people stuck at home because of the pandemic were reproducing uses of the physical world in synthetic worlds, and that this shift from real to synthetic would be anchored for life.102 Bostrom, Nick. “Are You Living in a Computer Simulation?” Philosophical Quarterly

35、, Vol. 53, No. 211, 2003.3 “Are We in a Simulation? Elon Musk.” YouTube, 17 February 2018.This awareness, supported by an initial analysis, led me to write an article for Harvard Business Review France in early 2021:4 I felt that the Metaverse was going to become “the place to be.” In response to th

36、e article, we received many requests from our ecosystem to give conferences or consulting on the topic. So, we decided to investigate the matter even further to help you navigate through the techno-logical fog and make the right strategic decisions today. This study aims to answer three questions:1.

37、 What is the Metaverse?2. How mature is the Metaverse?3. What are the business opportunities of the Metaverse?Before immersing ourselves in the Metaverse, however, I would like to share an anagram I discovered for “Metaverse Flippant” (Creepy Metaverse):Blue Shift / REPORT 002platement pervasif/ fla

38、tly pervasiveThis may sound a little scary or pessimistic but, as always,anagrams move in mysterious ways. What do you think? Albert Meige, PhD4 Meige, Albert. “Metaverse: A Virtual Universe for a New Real Economy.” Harvard Business Review France, 5 October 2021.11CHAPTER112. THEMETAVERSE:THE FUTURE

39、VERSION OFTHE INTERNETBlue Shift / REPORT 002#1The Metaverse:The future version of the InternetDespite what some would have you believe, the Metaverse is nothing new. The concept of synthetic or virtual worlds in which people connect has been around for at least 40 years in science fiction and 20 ye

40、ars in real life (see Figure 1). However, what is important is that there has been a strong acceleration of development activity around the concept over the last two or three years. This acceleration is due to two main reasons: convergence between three industries fighting for the same market, and a

41、 confluence of trends in users, software, and hardware coming together for the first time. Rather than a new concept, the Metaverse can be best considered as the future version of the Web, powered with new proper-ties that will open up new usages and business models in a similar way to how the smart

42、phone transformed the Web.14Blue Shift / REPORT 002The concept of Metaverse hasbeen around for 40 yearsThe Metaverse is not a new concept it actually predates the Web itself. The idea of synthetic5 or virtual worlds that people visit in order to interact with others dates back over 40 years in scien

43、ce fiction, becoming more mainstream thanks to films such as Tron and Total Recall in the 1980s and 1990s. The term itself was coined in Neal Stephensons 1992 novel Snow Crash, defining a virtual space where users could go to escape a dreary, totalitarian reality.Fig 1 The concept of Metaverse has b

44、een around for 40 years, both in science fiction .1980s1990s2000s19981990199819801982199219941999Predating the WorldIn the movie Tron, aTotal Recall exploresThe novelDark City, ThirteenthWide Web by a decade,computer programmer andthe blurring of memoryPermutation City asksFloor, and The MatrixWeb o

45、f Angelsvideo game developer isand reality in a fictionalwhether there is aall explore aspectsenvisaged antransported inside thefuture world.difference between aof dystopic futuresinstantaneoussoftware world of aThe term Metaversecomputer simulationwhere reality forcommunicationsmainframe computer.of a person and ahumans is simulated.was first used in thenetwork that allows“real” person,1992 novel Snow Crash.some users to travelexploring some of theIt was a virtual placebetween differentconsequences of