中国发电企业和世界同类能源企业对标分析报告2022（英）-69正式版.doc

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1、G L O B A LG U I D ENovember 2022Fossil FuelTransitionStrategiesRMIs Global EnergyTransformation Guide:ElectricityG L O B A LG U I D EAbout RMIRMI is an independent nonprofit founded in 1982 that transforms global energy systems through market-driven solutions to align with a 1.5C future and secure

2、a clean, prosperous, zero-carbon future for all. We work in the worlds most critical geographies and engage businesses, policymakers, communities, and NGOs to identify and scale energy system interventions that will cut greenhouse gas emissions at least 50 percent by 2030.RMI has offices in Basalt a

3、nd Boulder, Colorado; New York City; Oakland, California; Washington, D.C.; and Beijing.Fossil Fuel Transition Strategiesrmi.org / 2G L O B A LG U I D EAuthorsCara GoldenbergAnibal GomezLeia GuccioneGenevieve LillisMatt SugiharaAuthors listed alphabetically.ContactsMatt Sugihara, msugihararmi.orgCar

4、a Goldenberg, cgoldenbergrmi.orgCopyrights and CitationMatt Sughiara, Cara Goldenberg, Anibal Gomez, Leia Guccione, and Genevieve Lillis, Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies RMIs Global Energy Transformation Guide: Electricity, RMI, 2022, https:/rmi.org/global-energy-transformation-guide-fossil-fuel-t

5、ransition-strategiesRMI values collaboration and aims to accelerate the energy transition through sharing knowledge and insights. We therefore allow interested parties to reference, share, and cite our work through the Creative Commons CC BY-SA 4.0 license. https:/creativecommons. org/licenses/by-sa

6、/4.0/.All images used are from iS unless otherwise noted.Fossil Fuel Transition Strategiesrmi.org / 3G L O B A LG U I D EAcknowledgmentsThe authors thank the following individuals for their helpful insights and/or feedback on this report. All errors remain our own.RMIDiego AngelKingsmill BondKoben C

7、alhounFrancis ElishaAlex EngelRachit KansalDhroovaa KhannanWhitney MannLaetitia de MarezExternalCatherine Abreu, E3GVaibhav Chaturvedi, Council on Energy, Environment, and WaterAnanth Chikkatur, Deloitte Consulting US Anna Collyer, Australian Energy Market CommissionTanuj Deora, independent intervie

8、wee Stephen Doig, RMI, Irving Institute for Energy and Society, and Dartmouth College Garrett Fitzgerald, Smart Electric Power AllianceMax Gruenig, E3GTyeler MatsuoFrancis NdongoKaja RebaneJeremy RichardsonCarina RosenbachSakhi ShahEmma SlaterOleksiy TatarenkoJuan VialJennie Jorgensen, National Rene

9、wable Energy LaboratoryArchitrandi Priambodo, AsianDevelopment BankFrancisco Salazar, EnixRichard Sedano, Regulatory Assistance ProjectMichael Sponring, PwCRobert Stoner, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyEric Wanless, Global Energy Alliance for People and PlanetDan Wetzel, International Energy A

10、gencyFossil Fuel Transition Strategiesrmi.org / 4G L O B A LG U I D ETable of ContentsAbout This Report . . . . . . . . . . 7Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . .9Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . .11Global Trends Emerging in the Fossil FuelTransition . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15The Transition A

11、way from Coal18The Changing Role of Gas in Future Portfolios20Private-Sector Commitments . . . . . . . . .24Mobilization of Finance to SupportTransition Strategies25Ensuring a Just Transition . . . . . . . . . .27Key Challenges and Opportunities in theFossil Fuel Transition . . . . . . . . .31Fossil

12、 Fuel Transition Strategiesrmi.org / 5G L O B A LG U I D EHow Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies CanSupport Priority Outcomes . . . . .34Ensure a Fair and Inclusive Energy Transition . . . 35Create a System Poised for Sustainable Growth. . 37Increase Efficient Utilization of Clean Assets . .40Innovat

13、ion in the Fossil Fuel TransitionAcross Countries . . . . . . . . . .44Advanced Economies . . . . . . . . . . .45Middle-Income and Emerging Markets withDynamic Electricity Sectors . . . . . . . . .49Middle-Income and Emerging Markets withStable Electricity Sectors . . . . . . . . . .50Developing Eco

14、nomies . . . . . . . . . . .51Spotlights54Coal Transition in the United Kingdom54Kenyas Growth through Clean Energy . . . . . 55Overcoming Long-Term Fossil FuelGenerationPPAs in Chile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55Stakeholder-Driven Just Transition in Canadaand Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

15、56Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . .57Endnotes . . . . . . . . . . . . .59Fossil Fuel Transition Strategiesrmi.org / 6G L O B A LG U I D EAbout This ReportThis report is part of RMIs Global Energy Transformation Guide: Electricity series, which is a research endeavor aimed at understanding the leadi

16、ng edge of innovation for forward-thinking electricity system transitions around the world. The intent of the Global Guide is to assess new developments to secure universal access to reliable, affordable, and clean electricity by identifying key trends, exploring emerging challenges and opportunitie

17、s, and sharing success stories from electricity system leaders.The series focuses on eight catalysts for change that our research has shown have the greatest potential to support electricity system transformation. These catalysts are high-impact levers available to industry leaders across countries

18、to transform the power sector. RMI plans to publish a separate report for each of the eight catalysts to provide details on the innovation edge and where leadership is needed most.Fossil Fuel Transition Strategiesrmi.org / 7G L O B A LG U I D EThis report is focused on Fossil Fuel Transition Strateg

19、ies. The other catalysts in this series are:Market StructuresSystem Planning and ProcurementPublic PoliciesCustomer SolutionsAccessible FinanceUtility Incentive StructuresCarbon-Free TechnologyAdditionally, for an introduction to this effort, explanation of the framework used to guide our discussion

20、 of different catalysts, and further context on where countries are in their energy transition, we have published a complementary report titled Points of Progress An Introduction to RMIs Global Energy Transformation Guide: Electricity.Fossil Fuel Transition Strategiesrmi.org / 8G L O B A LG U I D EE

21、xecutive SummaryExpanding energy access, supporting sustainable growth opportunities, and reducing emissions are three key factors underpinning commitments to and implementation of the global transition away from fossil fuels to clean energy sources. A variety of pressures are driving this transitio

22、n, from financial institutions and shareholders to governments and utilities. In response, diverse innovative solutions are emerging across the globe that can offer important insights to countries as they craft their own strategies to navigate the transition.This report touches on five key trends pr

23、ominent around the world that will have a significant impact on the successful transition away from fossil fuels. They are: The transition away from coal. Although economics, political pressures, and policy actions have supported the decline of coal globally, coal is continuing to grow in some regio

24、ns with ready access to supply and subsidized rates. The changing role of natural gas in future generation portfolios. Although existing policies and procedures may favor deployment of gas generation in some countries, global gas demand is expected to decline because of tighter supplies, elevated pr

25、ices, and increased market uncertainty. Mobilization of finance to support transition strategies. Because transitioning large, complex fossil fuel assets is costly, the availability of innovative financing is a critical enabler to accelerate their transition. Private-sector commitments. Investors an

26、d shareholders are increasingly integrating climate considerations into their investment strategies.Fossil Fuel Transition Strategiesrmi.org / 9G L O B A LG U I D E Ensuring a just transition. If not managed appropriately, workers and their families, as well as broader communities economically depen

27、dent on fossil fuels, will bear a disproportionate burden of the transition.All these trends need to be considered in the transition from fossil fuels. Innovation will be required (1) to transition the dirtiest plants quickly and with minimal impacts to communities and customers and (2) to develop n

28、ew clean energy resources to take the place of fossil fuel generation and meet new demand growth in a fair and equitable manner.The fossil fuel transition will open new opportunities for economic growth, bringing cheaper and cleaner power, as well as associated industry and jobs to support it. To en

29、sure economic viability, transitioning assets need to be replaced by new sources of clean energy, including renewables and demand-side resources such as energy efficiency and flexible end uses. The fossil fuel transition will need to be enabled and supported by financing, a clear pipeline of clean r

30、eplacement energy projects, innovative utility programs, and new technology to support flexible, responsive, and reliable grids. This report identifies the critical challenges that countries face in transitioning their electricity systems, as well as the key opportunities they will be able to take a

31、dvantage of.The latter include innovative financing methods, roles for the private sector to increase demand for clean energy, new ways workers and communities can participate in the clean economy, new technologies and business models to expand electricity access and reliability, and emerging opport

32、unities for countries to leverage the transition for climate-forward growth. These are exemplified in case studies from around the world, such as the UKs coal transition and Chiles innovative methods to transition coal power purchase agreements (PPAs).As policymakers, utilities, investors, developer

33、s, civil society, and other stakeholders explore ways to support a fossil fuel transition, we hope this report provides inspiration and lessons from places that are already navigating the challenges in front of them.Fossil Fuel Transition Strategiesrmi.org / 10G L O B A LG U I D EIntroductionTransit

34、ioning the worlds energy system away from fossil fuels to clean energy sources will enable countries to expand energy access, support sustainable growth opportunities, and reduce emissions, especially through expansion of renewable generation and energy-efficiency gains.i This paper focuses on the v

35、ariety of pressures and strategies driving this transition away from fossil fuel generation and highlights innovative solutions emerging across the globe to share lessons and insights that can guide new efforts.The fossil fuel transition is not only about reducing power sector emissions. It will als

36、o reshape the global electricity sector and open further opportunities to decarbonize and modernize grid systems. The power sector has mature clean energy technologies with favorable economics, putting it at the leading edge of the broader energy transition. It also expands opportunities for equitab

37、le access to other end uses, such as cooking, mobility, and thermal comfort. It is important that power sector decarbonization be completed rapidly but also equitably, to ensure that communities, workers, and markets relying on the existing system benefit from the transition.The fossil fuel transiti

38、on will reshape the global electricity sector and open further opportunities to decarbonizeand modernizegrid systems.i While electricity generation is the focus of this report, the fossil fuel transition can broadly include the global energy system, such as liquid fuels for transportation.Fossil Fue

39、l Transition Strategiesrmi.org / 11G L O B A LG U I D EThis report explores various dimensions that need to be considered in the global fossil fuel transition, including: Reducing and avoiding emissions associated with existing and new fossil fuel generation, when possible and appropriate Supporting

40、 fossil fuel workers, communities, and the associated economies to achieve a just transition Appropriately wielding regulatory tools to ensure that the most economic solutions are implemented, including not only new generation, but also energy efficiency, demand response, and other non-wire alternat

41、ives Incentivizing deployment of renewables through reduced barriers or access to capital, including support for demand-driven actions such as clean energy commitments Recognizing the environmental co-benefits captured through clean resources Overcoming political challenges and barriers to the fossi

42、l fuel transitionMany more change levers will also govern the pace and scale of electricity sector decarbonization. RMI will be exploring the policy, planning, market, and technology pressures and opportunities in companion catalyst reports.To decarbonize the power sector, while achieving universal

43、access to affordable and reliable electricity, the world will need to make a massive change in the way it generates and manages energy.Fossil Fuel Transition Strategiesrmi.org / 12G L O B A LG U I D EGlobally, installed capacity, as shown in Exhibit 1, is still largely fossil fuel generated. For exa

44、mple, Global Energy Monitor estimates that: More than 2,400 coal plants, across 79 countries, total around 2,100 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity.1 9,354 gas-fired generators (above 50 megawatts MW), across 129 countries, total around 1,800 GW of capacity, which is known to be a significant unde

45、rcount of actual generators.ii Oil-based generation is more marginal at the utility scale but contributes to electricity generation through small generators and is widely used in certain areas, such as island states.Exhibit 1Increase in Global Power Sector Emissions and Shifts in Generation, by Source Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydro Solar and wind Other