2022年HR预测报告（英）-23正式版.doc

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1、HR Predicionsfor 2022thecompanyHR Predicions for 2022 | Copyright 2021 The Josh Bersin Company1All rights reserved. Not for distribuion. Licensed material.What can we expect in 2022? While the pandemic coninues, life goes on. The economy is growing, thejob market is hot, and workers feel more empowe

2、red than ever. Despite the stress and challenges we faced this year, our profession and our companies have transformed in a posiive way and were in for an exciing year ahead.What We Learned from 2021We learned to be more lexible and enable workers to do their jobs with more autonomy and in new ways.

3、 We learned to be more human-centric, bringing a stronger focus on empathy, care, and wellbeing at work. And we learned about digital transformaion. We now know we can do things faster than we previously thought and build soluions that get beter over ime.The HR profession has also transformed. Were

4、no longer talking about “geing a seat at the table”; were now siing there. Most of you are involved in doing strategic work, paricipaing in cross-funcional teams, and designing new soluions faster than ever. In fact, in my mind, one of the big themes for 2022 is “HR as a center of design,” where we

5、reshape our HR teams to design, launch, monitor, and coninuously improve our programs.Predictions 2022This report lays out what I see as all the major trends HR leaders and professionals should be keeping in mind as 2022 unfolds.1 The economy will growwith a constrained labor force.I believe we are

6、entering a fast-growing economy with the biggest labor (and skills) shortage weve seen in decades.First, consider the reinvenion of work that just occurred. During the last two years, more than 60 million American workers switched from working in oices to working remotely.1 Companies reduced spendin

7、g on real estate, travel, and faciliies and instead, put their dollars in digital tools.1 State of Remote Work: Execuive Summary, Global Workplace Analyics/, July 2020.And people responded amazingly well. While producivity took a dip in Q3 (July to September), the message to me is clear. Businesses

8、“reinvented” the model of work during the pandemic, and I dont think were going back. Hybrid work, remote work, and contract work is now mainstream, and companies are adjusing old models accordingly.While this all occurred, weve seen a “rubber band” growth cycle take place. Staring in 2009, ater the

9、 global inancial meltdown, demand started to grow. Companies started digiizing their products and services, supply chains were interconnected, and we started to see new digital business models emerge. In 2018 we had a big tax cut in the United States. The economy lourished, creaing a “crisis in dema

10、nd” and lots of concerns about income inequality, the divide between digital workers and those let behind, and the need to build beter social systems to prevent runaway income inequality.Then along comes the pandemic. We experienced a massive demand interrupion as people stayed home and businesses c

11、losed. One of the biggest lessons I learned during the pandemic is the unquenchable power of the human spirit,”2 and how people will adapt to change in ways we never believed possible.There have been other posiive impacts. Despite the increase in inlaion, wages are increasing. Companies are relaxing

12、 their criteria for hiring and ignoring requirements for college degrees or certain types of experience.3 For example, Scoiabank has now completely removed the need to submit resumes for its digital product development team; instead, the company is using behavioral assessments to idenify the “PowerS

13、kills it” of new hires and plans to train for technical or funcional skills.4 And many companies are adding bonuses, lexible beneits, and ever-more atracive perks to atract prospecive employees. (This year 39% of all U.S. wage spending is allocated to beneits and insurance.5)Is this huring business?

14、 Not at all. In 2021, the U.S. stock market was at an all-ime high and companies made plenty2 “The Unquenchable Power of the Human Spirit,” , podcast, August 2021.3 “Help Really Wanted: No Degree, Work Experience or Background Checks,” Lauren Weber and Chip Cuter/The Wall Street Journal, November 20

15、21.4 Scoiabank Transforms Campus Recruiing: Replacing Resumes with Behavioral Assessments, Josh Bersin and Nehal Nangia/The Josh Bersin Company, November 2021.5 Economic News Release: Employer Costs for Employee Compensaion Summary, U.S. Bureau of Labor Staisics, September 2021.HR Predicions for 202

16、2 | Copyright 2021 The Josh Bersin Company1All rights reserved. Not for distribuion. Licensed material.of money. The Conference Boards new projecions for the U.S. and global economy indicates we will have a 3.8% GDP increase in 2022 and 3% in 2023.6 These are really posiive numbers, and the results

17、will increase the demand for workers, skills, and experise.Consider the following analysis from Ciibank.7 Ciibank economists believe that the economic recovery andto automate and reorganize to deal with this labor shortage. (This is why we are launching a major new ceriicaion program and research st

18、udy on organizaion design in business.)Figure 2: Projected Path of Employment in the EU, With and Without Fiscal Simulus (000s)subsequent simulus (the U.S. infrastructure bill just passed at the wriing of this report) will grow U.S. employment to well over 160 million by late 2022. This will be the

19、largest employment number we have ever seen (see Figure 1).Figure 1: Projected Path of Employment in the U.S., With and Without Fiscal Simulus (000s)190,000Employment - U.S.180,000170,000160,000230,000225,000220,000215,000210,000205,000200,000195,000190,000185,000180,000Dec-03Sep-02Jun-01Mar-00Lower

20、 BoundEmployment - EUMar-05Jun-06Sep-07Dec-08Mar-10Jun-11Sep-12Dec-13Mar-15Jun-16Sep-17Dec-18Mar-20Jun-21Sep-22Dec-23Mar-25Jun-26Sep-27Fiscal Simulus-MidUpper BoundBaseline150,000140,000130,000120,000Mar-00Jun-01Sep-02Dec-03Mar-05Jun-06Sep-07Dec-08Mar-10Jun-11Sep-12Dec-13Mar-15Jun-16Sep-17Dec-18Mar-

21、20Jun-21Sep-22Dec-23Mar-25Jun-26Sep-27Dec-28Lower BoundFiscal Simulus-MidUpper BoundBaselineSource: Bureau of Labor Staisics, Cii ResearchAnd the growth of jobs in Europe is similar. EU jobs will reach over 205 million by the end of next year, catching up to employment numbers before the pandemic (s

22、ee Figure 2).These new jobs will do two things. First, theyll draw more people into the labor force, efecively increasing the number of people working. Second, theyll shit and change our talent pracices. Most of the new jobs created will be in construcion, green energy, healthcare and services, tran

23、sportaion (there is already a shortage of 80,000 truck drivers in the U.S.8), and other service professions. This means all of our businesses, which are becoming more service-driven each year, will have6 Global Economic Outlook 2022: From Pandemic Downturn to Growth Revival (US Ediion), The Conferen

24、ce Board, November 2021.7 Technology at Work v6.0: The Coming of the Post-Producion Society, Cii GPS: Global Perspecives & Soluions, June 2021.8 “Shortage of 80,000 truck drivers is only going to get worse without change, experts say,” AsherWildman/ Spectrum News 13, November 2021.Source: Bureau of

25、Labor Staisics, Cii ResearchWe also have the challenge of worker burnout. There are almost 11 million open posiions in the United States,9 and more than 3% of all workers are voluntarily leaving their jobs each month.10 This means that the biggest constraint to economic growth isnt just computer chi

26、ps or manufacturing supply; its people. So every company will likely be talent-constrained, telling us that we, in HR, are even more important than ever.We are just inishing our research for The Deiniive Guide toTalent Acquisiion and ind that only about 15% of companies are atracing and retaining ca

27、ndidates well. Those that are thriving focus on employee experience, a “healthy organizaion,” and an ever-increasing focus on mission, purpose, brand, and employee growth. So all the things we do in HR to build healthy organizaions and expand our recruitment footprint will be needed.If your company

28、is sufering from turnover, this is a leak you must ix. This year we published The Deiniive Guide: Employee9 Economic News Release, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, U.S. Bureau of Labor Staisics, November 2021.10 Economic News Release: Table 4. Quits Levels and rates by industry and region, U

29、.S. Bureau of Labor Staisics, November 2021.HR Predicions for 2022 | Copyright 2021 The Josh Bersin Company2All rights reserved. Not for distribuion. Licensed material.Experience as well as The Deiniive Guide to Wellbeing: TheHealthy Organizaion. Each of these reports will show you how to manage ret

30、enion and engagement issues.The good news is we, as HR leaders, understand this problem and recognize it will coninue to be a top priority for the year ahead.2 Hybrid work will evolve: enter the metaverse.Hybrid work is now a well-accepted business pracice. We wrote the playbook on this topic11 and

31、almost every company is reinvening “where to work” and “how.” Several studies have now shown employees like this new situaion. More than 50% of employees are willing to forgo as much as 5% of their pay for the opion to work at home.12However, as new research points out, many leaders expect people to

32、 come back to the oice. A new study found 70% of leaders want their teams back in the oice while fewer than 40% of line workers feel the same.13 Many execuives miss their corner oices and the power of personality; they believe true career growth requires face-to-face interacion.While the jury is sil

33、l out on fully returning to the oice (many tech companies have explicitly told people they can work remotely forever), its clear this is an issue that will be with us for some ime. While nobody likes a long commute, as more and more people show up, others will also want to be there.The old idea that

34、 working at home was synonymous with gooing of is gone. We can now accept that hybrid work is normal. And deskless workers, who make up almost 70% of the global workforce, are geing new tools and more lexibility.14The big trend in 2022 will be beter, virtual tools (Teams, for example, has myriad new

35、 features to help schedule, manage, coordinate, and record meeings) and the emergence of the metaverse.11 The Big Reset Playbook: Hybrid Work, Josh Bersin; Kathi Enderes, PhD; Janet Mertens; and Mark Sprat/The Josh Bersin Company, 2021.12 “Work remote ater COVID? Nearly 50% of US workers would take

36、a pay cut for it, survey says,”Terry Collins/, November 2021.13 “What Bosses Really Think about the Future of the Oice,” David Gellis/,November 2021.14 “Bersin: Why its ime to build a new, improved deskless reality,” Josh Bersin/,October 2021.Ive been working with AI for almost ive years, and I do b

37、elieve the potenial is huge. Right now, with Facebook (Meta) and Microsot (Dynamics 365 Connected Spaces and Microsot Mesh) pushing the agenda (see Figure 3 on the following page), I can see many of you experimening with AI in 2022. Our experience with STRIVR (VR for training), Mursion (Avatars for

38、sot skills), and other tools shows tremendous impact. Dow, for example, is using Mursions avatar-based simulaions to develop leadership capabiliies. AstraZeneca is piloing what it calls XR (extended reality) onboarding for researchers. This will, and should be, something you invesigate this year.I r

39、ecently published an aricle called “What Is the Metaverse?” and it is not something to be afraid of. On the contrary, these new digital experiences will further transform the deiniion of hybrid work, as well as onboarding, training, collaboraion, meeings, and, of course, entertainment and commerce.

40、Imagine, for example, a staf meeing where everyone can interact and move around (as if they were really there), but without spending ive hours lying across the country. Theres a big future here.3 Learning, skills, and career pathways will become business criical.The corporate learning market has nev

41、er seemed so vibrant and healthy. And theres good reason. Companies desperately need to reskill and redeploy workers, and the L&D (learning and development) market is responding faster than ever.I started studying L&D back in 1998 when I got involved in the early days of e-learning. Since then, comp

42、anies (and investors) have typically viewed corporate training as an important must-have but certainly not as a compeiive advantage.Well, that has completely changed. Today every single company execuive is worried about skills. Not only have companies been redeploying, moving, and rethinking jobs an

43、d roles all over the world, we now have a skills-centric mentalityHR Predicions for 2022 | Copyright 2021 The Josh Bersin Company3All rights reserved. Not for distribuion. Licensed material.Figure 3: Avatars in Mesh for TeamsMesh for Teams users can take their avatars into immersive spaces to experi

44、ence those serendipitous encounters that spark innovaion.Source: Image courtesy of Microsotthat leads CEOs and CFOs to start thinking about what skills are missing among their workforces.Chevron, for example, is working on the new generaion of energy engineers to move the company beyond carbon. Eric

45、sson is reskilling every business funcion around the technology and business models of 5G15. Intel is embracingAI. Autodesk is integraing its products to meet the new demands of integrated architecture and engineering. Healthcare companies like Kaiser Permanente are building a new generaion of care

46、and IT careers. And companies like Target, Walmart, and Amazon are learning about distribuion, customer experience management, and new models of retail.This means L&D organizaions must upskill their own teams. Chief learning oicers (CLOs) are now responsible forcapability academies, for supporing co

47、rporate skills taxonomy projects (more on this later), and for determining what technologies and content to buy.There are three huge issues for L&D leaders this year:1. Building capability academies16 (end-to-end learning strategies led by the business).2. Cleaning up and integraing all L&D technologies and tools.3. Working