美国外交政策研究所-俄罗斯2020年的核活动：尽管有新冠疫情但仍在展示实力（英文）-2021.5正文版.doc

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1、EURASIA PROGRAMA SHOWOFSTRENGTHDESPITE COVID19MAXIMSTARCHAKAll rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and

2、retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.Authors: Maxim StarchakThe views expressed in this report are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a non-partisan organization that seeks to publish well-argu

3、ed, policy-oriented articles on American foreign policy and national security priorities.Editing: Thomas J. ShattuckDesign: Natalia Kopytnik 2021 by the Foreign Policy Research InstituteMay 2021A nation must think before it actsABOUT USThe Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) is a non-partisan t

4、hink tank based in Philadelphia. Its founding principle is that a nation must think before it acts. FPRI is dedicated to producing the highest quality scholarship and nonpartisan policy analysis focused on crucial foreign policy and national security challenges facing the United States. We educate t

5、hose who make and influence policy, as well as the public at large, through the lens of history, geography, and culture.OFFERING IDEASIn an increasingly polarized world, we pride ourselves on our tradition of nonpartisan scholarship. We count among our ranks over 100 affiliated scholars located thro

6、ughout the nation and the world who appear regularly in national and international media, testify on Capitol Hill, and are consulted by U.S. government agencies.EDUCATING THE AMERICAN PUBLICFPRI was founded on the premise that an informed and educated citizenry is paramount for the U.S. to conduct a

7、 coherent foreign policy. Through in-depth research and extensive public programming, FPRI offers insights to help the public understand our volatile world.CHAMPIONING CIVIC LITERACYWe believe that a robust civic education is a national imperative. FPRI aims to provide teachers with the tools they n

8、eed in developing civic literacy, and works to enrich young peoples understanding of the institutions and ideas that shape American political life and our role in the world.www.fpri.orgRUSSIAS NUCLEAR ACTIVITY IN 2020:A Show of Strength Despite COVID-19Maxim StarchakMay 2021CONTENTSIntroduction11. R

9、ussias Nuclear Power on Land22. Russias Nuclear Power in the Air83. Russias Nuclear Power in the Sea144. Influence on the West20Conclusion23Executive SummarySince the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federations powerful nuclear arsenal has stood as a cornerstone of its political and milita

10、ry influence. In 2020, despite the COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions, Russias strategic nuclear forces maintained a high degree of activity. The number of nuclear exercises and air and sea deterrence patrols was stable and not much different from 2019. The Russian strategic nuclear arsenal

11、remains an integral tool of the Kremlins pressure on rivals in Europe and North America.This report continues the authors research on Russias nuclear forces: Maxim Starchak,“Russias Nuclear Activity in 2019: Increasing Strength And Pressure,” Atlantic Council, February, 16, 2021.RUSSIAS NUCLEAR ACTI

12、VITY IN 2020IntroductionThe confrontation between the Russian Federation and the West remained a prevailing factor in global politics and international security in 2020. Despite continued Western criticism in the aftermath of Russias 2014 annexation of Crimea, Russia has increased its military activ

13、ity. In particular, confrontation with the West has caused an increase in Russian military exercises testing the readiness of the nuclear triad. The intensity and extent of such activity has returned to the Cold War level. Russia triggers fear and puts pressure on the West through drills featuring i

14、ts nuclear delivery vehicles. Such demonstrations of force are intended to preserve Russias status as a global power and its ability to pursue the policies that it deems appropriate.While the COVID-19 pandemic had some impact on the scale of nuclear activity in 2020, it remains intense nonetheless.

15、The consistent nature of nuclear activity demonstrates that nuclear weapons continue to serve as the backbone of Russian policy and that they will remain so regardless of potential obstacles.Russia is one of only two countries in the world with a stockpile of nuclear weapons at such large scale. Rus

16、sias nuclear weapons play an important military and political role in its relations with the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). With regard to Russian relations with the West, the activity of Russian nuclear forces is extremely important for global security and needs to

17、 be monitored by the international community, experts, and politicians.1FOREIGN POLICYRESEARCH INSTITUTE1.RUSSIASNUCLEARPOWERONLANDThe Strategic Missile Forces (SMF) is a separate branch of the Russian Armed Forces and serves as the main component of the countrys strategic nuclear forces. In 2020, t

18、he SMF controlled about 310 land-based missile systems or 58% of Russias nuclear weapons. Activity of Russias Strategic Missile Forces remained at a high level in 2020. Various divisions across the country regularly deployed the Topol, Topol-M, and Yars missile systems on combat duty. This level of

19、activity stemmed from analysis by generals that the number of military trainings and exercises conducted in 2019 was optimal and made it possible to improve troop proficiency. In 2020, the number of exercises remained the same as in 2019: more than 200 exercises, with six of the twelve divisions par

20、ticipating in the SMFs largest exercises. While the exercises decreased in scope, the coronavirus lockdown did not preventthem from taking place.Despite no change in the number of drills taking place, the pandemic limited the extent of the trainings. For example, in 2020, there were no large-scale t

21、rainings that simultaneously involved a large number of missile divisions across different regions, as had happened previously. Also, unlike in 2019, the SMF was not assigned unique or new tasks or new patrol areas. However, SMF divisions did follow a routine schedule. They conducted marches with mi

22、ssile systems and other weapons up to 100 kilometers. They drilled concealed change of field positions, camouflage of missile systems, and security in combat. They also held exercises simulating defense from a variety of different attacks. The number of military personnel involved in scheduled train

23、ing and combat duty was cut to reduce the risk of coronavirus infection. At the beginning of the year, about 2,500 Hans M. Kristensen and Matt Korda, “Russian Nuclear Forces, 2021,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 15, 2021, https:/thebulletin.org/premium/2021-03/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuc

24、lear-weapons-2021/. “ 2020 200 In 2020, strategic missileman plan to conduct more than 200 exercises,” Russian Defense Ministry, January 2020, https:/structure.mil.ru/structure/ forces/strategic_rocket/news/more.htm?id=12269451.2Strategic Missile ForceRUSSIASExercisesNUCLEARACTIVITY IN 2020Number of

25、 Exercises24022020018016014012010080602011201220132014201520162017201820192020YearSource: Russian Defense Ministry and the authors estimatesNote: The Russian Ministry of Defense does not always provide a concrete number of exercises performed in a given year, but rather approximates, using phrases l

26、ike more than 200. Based on the authors understanding of Ministry of Defense reporting practices, he provides an estimate of the number of exercises conducted. The author does so by considering whether there was a reported increase in exercises from previous years as well as the practice in Ministry

27、 of Defense publications to provide statistics reflecting a number of exercises closest to the nearest 50.servicemen took part in each of the major headquarters exercises compared to the traditional 3,000-3,500 soldiers. This probably means that the minimum possible number of military personnel was

28、used to accomplish the tasks assigned to the respective divisions. In March 2020, the Barnaul division used only1,000 servicemen and about 150 units of equipment in its integrated checkout for combatreadiness.Therehadneverbeen so few participants in such a training.At the beginning of the year, it w

29、as announced that the SMFs largest exercises would be held under the direction of the SMFs commander in “ -: “Yars” went on combat patrolroutes near Yoshkar-Ola: video,” TV Zvezda, February 10, 2020, https:/tvzvezda.ru/news/20202131041-qmPLz.html. “ The Command of the Strategic Missile Forces will c

30、heck the Barnaul division being re-equipped with “Yars”,” AVN-Interfax, March 11, 2020. https:/www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=528471&lang=RU.3FOREIGN POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTEthe Irkutsk and Orenburg regions. However, in September and October, an exercise was held in the Irkutsk Region, dur

31、ing which 20 launchers for Yars strategic missile systems were put into combat sites. The SMF had planned to conduct a larger exercise involving 4,000 servicemen and 400 weapon units, but due to the coronavirus restrictions, the number of servicemen involved was cut by 1,000 and the number of weapon

32、 units by 100. In general, these reduced figures fit into the average values for such exercises.The reduction in the number of servicemen who took part in the annual Victory Day Parades offers additional context for how the SMF handled the impact of the pandemic. In previous years,approximately 13,0

33、00 servicemen and 250 vehicles from the SMF participated in the Victory Day Parades across 38 cities; in 2020, only 8,000 servicemen and 200 vehicles in 30 cities took part.In addition, at the pandemics peak, the SMF engaged in tasks not normally within their purview. For example, in March, the SMF

34、held a special exercise on the implementation of epidemic control measures. In April and May, soldiers disinfected public transit stops, hospitals and polyclinics, pharmacies, kindergartens, and defense industry enterprises in Yoshkar-Ola and the Mari El Republic.Moreover, in June, all SMF divisions

35、 held a special exercise on information “ 2020 200 In 2020, strategic missileman plan to conduct more than 200 exercises,” Russian Defense Ministry, January 2020, https:/structure.mil.ru/structure/ forces/strategic_rocket/news/more.htm?id=12269451. “ - For the first time, the Strategic Missile Force

36、s will hold a command-post exercise with the use of robotic systems,” Russian Defense Ministry, March 10, 2020, https:/structure.mil.ru/structure/forces/strategic_rocket/news/more. htm?id=12080216; and “ 20 “” The Russian Defense Ministry reports on the withdrawal of almost 20 strategic “Yars” to fi

37、eld positions during exercises in Siberia,” AVN-Interfax, September 30, 2020, https:/www.militarynews.ru/story. asp?rid=1&nid=538767&lang=RU. “ 13 More than 13 thousand SMF sol-diers will take part in Victory parades,” RIA Novosti, May 9, 2016, https:/ria.ru/20160509/1429395505.html; and “ 38 Milita

38、ry personnel of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces will take part in parades and solemn processions in 38 cities of Russia on Victory Day,” Russian Defense Ministry, April 24, 2017, https:/syria.mil.ru/syria/peacemaking_ briefs/brief.htm?id=12120013. “ 8 30 More than 8 thousand SMF soldiers will t

39、ake part in military parades in 30 cities of Russia,” Russian Defense Ministry, June 11, 2020, https:/structure.mil.ru/structure/forces/strategic_rocket/news/more.htm?id=12296910egNews. , Roman Biryulin, Dmitry Andreev, “ Strategic missileman improve their skills,” Red Star, May 22, 2020, http:/reds

40、tar.ru/strate-gicheskie-raketchiki-sovershenstvuyut-vyuchku/.4RUSSIAS NUCLEAR ACTIVITY IN 2020RS-24 Yars missile system of the 39th Guards Missile Division during a command post exercise on September 29, 2017. (mil.ru)exchange and practical implementation of measures to identify and assess radiation

41、, chemical, and biological conditions. The exercise involved control points of all SMF formations from Tver to Irkutsk. Given the coronavirus conditions, the SMF widely used the latest UTM-80M thermal vehicles for the first time. These vehicles are designed fordeactivation of equipment and launchers

42、, decontamination, and disinfection.In evaluating the activity of the Strategic Missile Forces in addition to checking the combat readiness of missile divisions, it is important to consider the testing of missile systems. Six intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launches were planned for 2020,

43、with five of them to be launched “ The Strategic Missile Forces will hold a special training of the control points of the subsystem of the Unified System for Identifying and Assessing the Scales and Effects of the Strategic Missile Forces,” Russian Defense Ministry, June 24, 2020, https:/ structure.mil.ru/structure/forces/strategic_rocket/news/more.htm?id=12298838egNews. “