消费者行为学第2版英文教师手册imCh11TeachingNotes-tc.pdf

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1、 2015 Cengage Learning.All Rights Reserved.May not be scanned,copied or duplicated,or posted to a publicly accessible website,in whole or in part.1 Chapter 11 Behavioral Decision Theory Outline Chapter Objectives Chapter Summary Teaching Suggestions Expected Utility Theory Framing Influences Marketi

2、ng Decisions Reference Dependence and Loss Aversion The Endowment Effect,The Sunk Cost Effect and Choice Deferral Preference Reversals Selective Thinking Review and Discussion Questions Chapter Objectives After studying this chapter,you will be able to.Objective 1Explain expected value theory and ho

3、w the framing effect violates this theory.Objective 2Develop marketing strategies for segregating gains and aggregating losses.Objective 3Explain several different ways preference reversals can occur.Objective 4Define singular evaluation and comparative evaluation.Objective 5Analyze the pros and con

4、s of selective thinking.2015 Cengage Learning.All Rights Reserved.May not be scanned,copied or duplicated,or posted to a publicly accessible website,in whole or in part.2 Chapter Summary Behavioral decision research focuses mainly on risky decision making,or decision making under uncertainty.To redu

5、ce uncertainty,consumers often attempt to predict the future.What will happen if I buy one brand instead of another?What will happen if choose one course of action instead of another?Will I be satisfied with my decision one month from now,one year from now,or several years from now?Unfortunately,con

6、sumers predictions are biased by framing effects and by selective thinking.Gain frames lead to risk aversion,but loss frames lead to risk seeking.The inconsistent weighting of information resulting from framing,measurement,or selective thinking leads to systematic preference reversals where consumer

7、s prefer one option initially and another option later.Consumers are remarkably inconsistent in their use of information,leading to inconsistent preferences and choices they later regret.2015 Cengage Learning.All Rights Reserved.May not be scanned,copied or duplicated,or posted to a publicly accessi

8、ble website,in whole or in part.3 TEACHING NOTES Teaching Suggestions 1.Demonstrate framing effects by presenting the hospital scenario provided in the text.First,randomly split the class into two groups.Ask Group 2 to leave the room temporarily.If that is not practical,ask Group 2 to cover their ey

9、es while Group 1 reads and responds to the positively framed hospital scenario(i.e.,Program A:200 people will be saved).Next,ask Group 1 to cover their eyes while Group 2 reads and responds to the negatively framed hospital scenario(i.e.,Program A:400 people will die).Tabulate the results and compar

10、e the percentage of students who selected Program A in each of the groups.You are likely to find that 2 to 3 times more students in Group 1 selected Program A and 2 to 3 times more students in Group 2 selected Program B.This provides an opportunity to discuss the theory that people tend to be risk a

11、verse when scenarios are positively framed and risk-seeking when scenarios are negatively framed.Try to expand the discussion beyond the hospital example.For example,does this theory explain why gamblers often go“all in”when they are losing?Does the theory provide insight as to why people take extre

12、mely high risks when they feel severely threatened?Why sports teams take excessive chances when they far behind in a game?Ask students if managers demonstrate this pattern of behavior when making decisions regarding product launches,advertising campaigns,or pricing programs.Finally,ask students if c

13、onsumers exhibit the same pattern when making important(approach versus.avoidance)purchase decisions.2.Sketch a graph of the value function related to Prospect Theory(Figure 11.1)on the board or project it on a screen for students to see.Then,mark a point on the horizontal axis two inches to the rig

14、ht of the reference point.Make a similar mark two inches to the left of the reference point.Now that you have described a loss and gain in equal units,show the corresponding point on the S-shaped value function.Students will quickly see that the positive value is much less than the negative value fo

15、r equivalent gains and losses.Conduct the same exercise further away from the reference point on the horizontal axis.This will allow you to explain the diminishing sensitivity.3.The endowment and sunk cost effects are so common in everyday decision making that students are likely to have fallen prey

16、 to them once or twice themselves.Cite the two examples in the text regarding the endowment effect(wine and lawn mowing),and ask students to provide additional examples.Ask students why opportunity costs are typically underestimated.They are likely to indicate that opportunity costs(and benefits)see

17、m intangible(out of sight,out of mind,if you will).On the other hand,tangible costs are difficult to ignore.Regarding the sunk cost fallacy,cite the two examples in the text(basketball tickets and health club membership).Then,ask students to provide examples of business-related sunk cost effects.Ope

18、ning Vignette The opening vignette summarizes the unfortunate Vioxx case,highlighting the difficulty of making good decisions under conditions of uncertainty.Interestingly,Merck acted quickly and ethically in removing Vioxx from the market voluntarily.In contrast,competitor Pfizer,2015 Cengage Learn

19、ing.All Rights Reserved.May not be scanned,copied or duplicated,or posted to a publicly accessible website,in whole or in part.4 although facing similar problems with Celebrex,kept their drug on the market and made millions of dollars taking share from Merck.Often,ethical decision making is expensiv

20、e at least in the short run.Expected Utility Theory According to expected utility theory,consumers think about decisions in terms of“gambles,”and all gambles have two components:a probability component called p,and a value component called v.The predicted or expected value of a gamble is simply p x

21、v.1.The dominance principle says that alternative gambles can be ranked from best to worst in terms of expected value.2.Cancelation means that stages of gambles should cancel out if they are identical for two gambles.3.Transitivity suggests that preferences should be transitive,i.e.,if you prefer A

22、to B and B to C,then you must prefer A to C.4.Invariance means that preference should remain invariant or stable,no matter how choices are described.Framing Influences Marketing Decisions Marketing managers often need to make difficult decisions that involve taking risks with marketing mix.Should ri

23、sky brands be introduced or marginal brands dropped?Should price cuts be implemented or withdrawn?Should distribution channels be expanded,contracted or changed altogether?Framing theory suggests that the marketing managers choose riskier options when decisions are framed negatively and safer option

24、s when decisions are framed positively.Reference Dependence and Loss Aversion Expected utility theory cannot explain the framing effect or preference reversals.According to expected utility theory,people should be consistent and choose the same alternative,regardless of how the outcomes are framed o

25、r described.Prospect theory suggests that all outcomes are evaluated with respect to a neutral reference point,and that preferences change as reference points change.1.Loss aversion means that losses have a bigger impact on people,relative to equivalent gains.2.Diminishing sensitivity means that out

26、comes have weaker effects on people as distance from the reference point increases.Figure 11.1 provides a graphical representation of Prospect Theory.2015 Cengage Learning.All Rights Reserved.May not be scanned,copied or duplicated,or posted to a publicly accessible website,in whole or in part.5 Los

27、s aversion is so powerful that it can lead consumers to violate the dominance principle.Consumers tend to overestimate the likelihood of very small probabilities,which is what makes lotteries seem more attractive than they really are.Consumers also underestimate the likelihood of moderate and large

28、probabilities.The Endowment Effect,The Sunk Cost Effect and Choice Deferral Small variations in the framing or wording of choice problems can change peoples preferences dramatically,resulting in inconsistent choices.1.The endowment effect refers to the tendency to view a product as more valuable if

29、one owns it than if one does not own it.Example 1.Mr.Jones bought a case of good wine in the late 1950s for about$5 a bottle,but he wouldnt sell it to his wine merchant for$100 a bottle.Example 2.A neighbors son offers to mow Mr.Smiths lawn for$8,but Mr.Smith refuses,even though he wouldnt mow a sim

30、ilarly sized lawn for$20.1.In both cases,consumers underestimate the importance of opportunity costs.2.The sunk cost effect suggests that as amount of time or money invested in a product or a service increases,people are more reluctant to give up the product or service.Example 1.A family pays$40 for

31、 tickets to a basketball game.On the day of the game,there is a snowstorm.They go anyway,but note that they would have stayed home had the tickets been given to them for free.Example 2.A consumer joins a fitness club for$300 a year.After two weeks he is injured but continues to attend,saying,“I dont

32、 want to waste the$300.”o Again,consumers underestimate the importance of opportunity costs.o At some point,consumers and managers should cut their losses and avoid throwing good money after bad.3.Choice deferral refers to the reluctance to make any decision even though the decision could benefit bo

33、th parties.Loss aversion also implies that marketers should segregate gains and aggregate losses.1.Hotels would likely have better guest relations if they charged one fee covering several services.2015 Cengage Learning.All Rights Reserved.May not be scanned,copied or duplicated,or posted to a public

34、ly accessible website,in whole or in part.6 2.Patronage rewards(e.g.,frequent flier miles)should be paid out in small increments,not in one lump sum.Preference Reversals Preferences reverse or switch when consumers think about a choice problem differently.One option looks better at one point in time

35、,and the other option looks better at another point in time(e.g.,framing).Consumers prefer a p-bet,or a bet that offers a high probability of winning a small amount of money,when they are asked to choose among gambles.Consumers prefer a v-bet,or a bet that offers a low probability of winning a large

36、 amount of money,when they are asked to indicate a minimum selling price for each bet.According to the compatibility principle,different measurement techniques highlight different aspects of the choice options.Thus,any measure that emphasizes money or value increases the importance of v and the like

37、lihood that consumers will make a v-bet.Singular Evaluation 1.Singular evaluation involves judging or evaluating brands and products one at a time.Familiar attributes that are easy to evaluate have a greater impact on preferences.2.Comparative evaluation involves judging or evaluating two or more pr

38、oducts concurrently.Unfamiliar attributes that are difficult to evaluate carry more weight in judgment.Selective Thinking Singular versus comparative judgment tasks change the way consumers evaluate products,and can lead to different preferences.Singular evaluation is easier,so its more common than

39、comparative evaluation.Selective thinking(one-sided thinking)occurs when consumers interpret ambiguous information as supporting their views.Singular evaluation often leads consumers to focus selectively on favorable information while neglecting unfavorable information.2015 Cengage Learning.All Righ

40、ts Reserved.May not be scanned,copied or duplicated,or posted to a publicly accessible website,in whole or in part.7 Asking consumers to reject alternatives is one way to encourage them to focus selectively on negative attributes.When consumers attempt to reduce the size of their consideration sets,

41、they also are likely to focus on negatives.The brand positivity effect shows that consumers form unrealistically favorable evaluations of moderately favorable brands when they use singular evaluations,but not when they use comparative evaluations.Selective thinking leads consumers to overestimate th

42、e magnitude of the correlation between price and quality(i.e.,the price-quality heuristic).2015 Cengage Learning.All Rights Reserved.May not be scanned,copied or duplicated,or posted to a publicly accessible website,in whole or in part.8 Answers to Review and Discussion Questions 1.What is risky dec

43、ision making?Decision making under uncertainty where different outcomes are possible with different probabilities.2.Why are consumers often unable to explain how they arrived at a prediction?Heuristics are used automatically with little thought or awareness,and consumers are typically unaware that t

44、hey are using heuristics.3.Why do consumers often fail to maximize expected value?Consumers often use heuristics rather than calculate expected values.Also,consumers are inconsistent in that they tend to use different information in different situations.4.Give an example of a situation in which you

45、chose a safe option.The safest option is an option that produces a single outcome with a probability of 1.No gamble is involved.Consumers are most likely to choose such options when they focus on gains and are risk averse.5.Give an example of a situation in which you chose a risky option.Risky optio

46、ns can produce many different outcomes with different probabilities.Consumers are likely to choose risky options when they focus on losses and are risk seeking.6.Why are consumers sometimes risk averse and sometimes risk seeking?Framing leads consumers to sometimes focus on gains and to sometimes fo

47、cus on losses.Focusing on gains makes people risk averse,and focusing on losses makes people risk seeking.7.Why do different types of preference measures change preferences?Some measures lead consumers to focus more heavily on values,and some lead consumers to focus more heavily on probabilities.8.D

48、escribe the compatibility principle.How does this principle change peoples preferences?Can you think of a situation in which this principle changed your preferences?The compatibility principle is a matching principle.Questions about money lead consumers to focus on money.Questions about probabilitie

49、s lead consumers to focus on probabilities.Focusing on different types of information in different situations can produce preference reversals.9.What is a preference reversal?A preference reversal occurs when consumers prefer on option in one situation and a different option in a different situation

50、.10.How do preference reversals lead to decisions that consumers later regret?2015 Cengage Learning.All Rights Reserved.May not be scanned,copied or duplicated,or posted to a publicly accessible website,in whole or in part.9 An option that seems like a good option now may seem like a bad one later w