跨国金融原理(第三版)教师手册M18_MOFF9242_03_IM_C.pdf

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1、Chapter 18 Political Risk Assessment and Management 1.Political Risk Definition.In order for a MNE to identify,measure,and manage its political risks,it needs to define and classify these risks.Define the following political risks:a.Firm-specific risks.Firm-specific risks,also known as micro risks,a

2、re those risks that affect the MNE at the project or corporate level.Governance risk due to goal conflict between a MNE and its host government is the main political firm-specific risk.(A MNE also faces business risks and foreign exchange risks which are covered extensively in other sections of this

3、 book.)b.Country-specific risks.Country-specific risks,also known as macro risks,are those risks that also affect the MNE at the project or corporate level but originate at the country level.The two main political risk categories at the country level are transfer risk and cultural and institutional

4、risks.c.Transfer risk.Transfer risk concerns mainly the problem of blocked funds,but also peripherally sovereign credit risk(covered elsewhere in this book).d.Cultural and institutional risks.Cultural and institutional risks spring from ownership structure,human resource norms,religious heritage,nep

5、otism and corruption,intellectual property rights,and protectionism.e.Global-specific risk.Global-specific risks are those risks that affect the MNE at the project or corporate level but originate at the global level.Examples are terrorism,the anti-globalization movement,environmental concerns,pover

6、ty,and cyberattacks.2.Country Risk Ratings.Exhibit 18.2 shows country risk ratings for selected countries.Using Moodys,S&P,and Euromoney rating services prepare a country risk rating for Argentina.Student needs to refer to the risk ratings guides used in Exhibit 18.2.3.Governance Risk.a.Define what

7、is meant by the term“governance risk.”Governance risk is the ability to exercise effective control over a MNEs operations within a countrys legal and political environment.For a MNE,however,governance is a subject similar in structure to consolidated profitabilityit must be addressed for the individ

8、ual business unit and subsidiary,as well as for the MNE as a whole.b.What is the most important type of governance risk?The most important type of governance risk for the MNE on the subsidiary level arises from a goal conflict between bona fide objectives of host governments and the private firms op

9、erating within their spheres of influence.Governments are normally responsive to a constituency consisting of their citizens.Firms are responsive to a constituency consisting of their owners and other stakeholders.The valid needs of these two separate sets of constituents need not be the same,but go

10、vernments set the rules.Consequently,governments impose constraints on the activities of private firms as part of their normal administrative and legislative functioning.Chapter 18 Political Risk Assessment and Management 81 4.Investment Agreement.An investment agreement spells out specific rights a

11、nd responsibilities of both the foreign firm and the host government.What are the main financial policies that should be spelled out in an investment agreement?An investment agreement spells out specific rights and responsibilities of both the foreign firm and the host government.The presence of MNE

12、s is as often sought by development-seeking host governments as a particular foreign location sought by a MNE.All parties have alternatives and so bargaining is appropriate.An investment agreement should spell out policies on financial and managerial issues,including the following:The basis on which

13、 fund flows,such as dividends,management fees,royalties,patent fees,and loan repayments,may be remitted.The basis for setting transfer prices.The right to export to third-country markets.Obligations to build,or fund,social and economic overhead projects,such as schools,hospitals,and retirement syste

14、ms.Methods of taxation,including the rate,the type of taxation,and means by which the rate base is determined.Access to host-country capital markets,particularly for long-term borrowing.Permission for 100%foreign ownership versus required local ownership(joint venture)participation.Price controls,if

15、 any,applicable to sales in the host-country markets.Requirements for local sourcing versus import of raw materials and components.Permission to use expatriate managerial and technical personnel,and to bring them and their personal possessions into the country free of exorbitant charges or import du

16、ties.Provision for arbitration of disputes.Provisions for planned divestment,should such be required,indicating how the going concern will be valued and to whom it will be sold.5.Investment Insurance and Guarantees(OPIC).a.What is OPIC?The U.S.investment insurance and guarantee program is managed by

17、 the government-owned overseas private investment corporation(OPIC).OPICs stated purpose is to mobilize and facilitate the participation of U.S.private capital and skills in the economic and social progress of less developed friendly countries and areas,thereby complementing the developmental assist

18、ance of the United States.b.What types of political risks can OPIC insure?OPIC offers insurance coverage for four separate types of political risk,which have their own specific definitions for insurance purposes:Inconvertibility is the risk that the investor will not be able to convert profits,royal

19、ties,fees,or other income,as well as the original capital invested,into dollars.Expropriation is the risk that the host government takes a specific step that for one year prevents the investor or the foreign subsidiary from exercising effective control over use of the property.War,revolution,insurre

20、ction,and civil strife coverage applies primarily to the damage of physical property of the insured,although in some cases inability of a foreign subsidiary to repay a loan because of a war may be covered.Business income coverage provides compensation for loss of business income resulting from event

21、s of political violence that directly cause damage to the assets of a foreign enterprise.82 Moffett/Stonehill/Eiteman Fundamentals of Multinational Finance,Third Edition 6.Operating Strategies after the Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)Decision.The following operating strategies,among others,are expect

22、ed to reduce damage from political risk.Explain each one and how it reduces damage.a.Local sourcing.Host governments may require foreign firms to purchase raw material and components locally as a way to maximize value added benefits and to increase local employment.From the viewpoint of the foreign

23、firm trying to adapt to host-country goals,local sourcing reduces political risk,albeit at a trade-off with other factors.Local strikes or other turmoil may shutdown the operation and such issues as quality control,high local prices because of lack of economies of scale,and unreliable delivery sched

24、ules become important.Often the MNE lowers political risk only by increasing its financial and commercial risk.b.Facility location.Production facilities may be located so as to minimize risk.The natural location of different stages of production may be resource-oriented,footloose,or market-oriented.

25、Oil,for instance,is drilled in and around the Persian Gulf,Russia,Venezuela,and Indonesia.No choice exists for where this activity takes place.Refining is footloose;a refining facility can be moved easily to another location or country.Whenever possible,oil companies have built refineries in politic

26、ally safe countries,such as Western Europe,or small islands(such as Singapore or Curaao),even though costs might be reduced by refining nearer the oil fields.They have traded reduced political risk and financial exposure for possibly higher transportation and refining costs.c.Control of technology.C

27、ontrol of key patents and processes is a viable way to reduce political risk.If a host country cannot operate a plant because it does not have technicians capable of running the process,or of keeping up with changed technology,abrogation of an investment agreement with a foreign firm is unlikely.Con

28、trol of technology works best when the foreign firm is steadily improving its technology.d.Thin equity base.Foreign subsidiaries can be financed with a thin equity base and a large proportion of local debt.If the debt is borrowed from locally owned banks,host-government actions that weaken the finan

29、cial viability of the firm also endanger local creditors.e.Multiple-source borrowing.If the firm must finance with foreign source debt,it may borrow from banks in a number of countries rather than just from home country banks.If,for example,debt is owed to banks in Tokyo,Frankfurt,London,and New Yor

30、k,nationals in a number of foreign countries have a vested interest in keeping the borrowing subsidiary financially strong.If the multinational is U.S.-owned,a fallout between the United States and the host government is less likely to cause the local government to move against the firm if it also o

31、wes funds to these other countries.7.Country-Specific Risk:Definitions.Define the following terms:a.Transfer risk.Transfer risk is defined as limitations on the MNEs ability to transfer funds into and out of a host country without restrictions.b.Blocked funds.When a government runs short of foreign

32、exchange and cannot obtain additional funds through borrowing or attracting new foreign investment,it usually limits transfers of foreign exchange out of the country,a restriction known as blocked funds.In theory this does not discriminate against foreign-owned firms because it applies to everyone;i

33、n practice foreign firms have more at stake because of their foreign ownership.Depending on the size of a foreign exchange shortage,the host government might simply require approval of all transfers of funds abroad,thus reserving the right to set a priority on the use of scarce foreign exchange in f

34、avor of necessities rather than luxuries.In very severe cases the government might make its currency nonconvertible into other currencies,thereby fully blocking transfers of funds abroad.In between these positions are policies that restrict the size and timing of dividends,debt amortization,royaltie

35、s,and service fees.c.Sovereign credit risk.Sovereign credit risk is the risk caused by the overall credit rating of the country in which a firm is located.Chapter 18 Political Risk Assessment and Management 83 8.Blocked Funds.Explain the strategies that a MNE can use to counterblocked funds.What can

36、 a multinational firm do to transfer funds out of countries having exchange or remittance restrictions?At least six popular strategies are used:(1)Providing alternative conduits for repatriating funds;(2)transfer pricing goods and services between related units of the MNE;and(3)leading and lagging p

37、ayments.Three additional strategies are:a.Using fronting loans b.Creating unrelated exports c.Obtaining special dispensation 9.Cultural and Institutional Risks.Identify and explain the main types of cultural and institutional risks,except protectionism.When investing in some of the emerging markets,

38、MNEs that are resident in the most industrialized countries face serious risks because of cultural and institutional differences.Among many such differences are:Differences in allowable ownership structures Differences in human resource norms Differences in religious heritage Nepotism and corruption

39、 in the host country Protection of intellectual property rights Protectionism 10.Strategies to Manage Cultural and Institutional Risks.Explain the strategies that a MNE can use to manage each of the cultural and institutional risks that you identified in Question 9,except protectionism.Lengthy and d

40、etailed descriptions are provided in the chapter.11.Protectionism Defined.a.Define protectionism and identify the industries that are typically protected.Protectionism is defined as the attempt by a national government to protect certain of its designated industries from foreign competition.Industri

41、es that are protected are usually related to defense,agriculture,and“infant”industries.b.Explain the“infant industry”argument for protectionism.The traditional protectionist argument is that newly emerging,“infant”industries need protection from foreign competition until they can get firmly establis

42、hed.The infant industry argument is usually directed at limiting imports but not necessarily MNEs.In fact most host countries encourage MNEs to establish operations in new industries that do not presently exist in the host country.Sometimes the host country offers foreign MNEs“infant industry”status

43、 for a limited number of years.This status could lead to tax subsidies,construction of infrastructure,employee training,and other aids to help the MNE get started.Host countries are especially interested in attracting MNEs that promise to export,either to their own foreign subsidiaries elsewhere or

44、to unrelated parties.84 Moffett/Stonehill/Eiteman Fundamentals of Multinational Finance,Third Edition 12.Managing Protectionism.a.What are the traditional methods for countries to implement protectionism?Tariff and non-tariff barriers.b.What are some typical non-tariff barriers to trade?Non-tariff b

45、arriers,which restrict imports by something other than a financial cost,are often difficult to identify because they are promulgated as health,safety,or sanitation requirements.A list of the major types of non-tariff barriers would include those shown in Exhibit 16.6.c.How can MNEs overcome host cou

46、ntry protectionism?MNEs have only a very limited ability to overcome host country protectionism.However,MNEs do enthusiastically support efforts to reduce protectionism by joining together in regional markets.The best examples of regional markets are the European Union(EU),the North American Free Tr

47、ade Association(NAFTA),and the Latin American Free Trade Association(MERCOSUR).Among the objectives of regional markets are elimination of internal trade barriers,such as tariffs and non-tariff barriers,as well as the free movement of citizens for employment purposes.External trade barriers still ex

48、ist.13.Global-Specific Risks.What are the main types of political risks that are global in origin?Terrorism and war,anti-globalization efforts,and environmental concerns.14.Managing Global-Specific Risks.What are the main strategies MNEs can use to manage the global-specific risks you have identifie

49、d in Question 13?Exhibit 18.6 in the chapter(and reproduced below)provides a short synthesis of the multitude of strategies applicable to global-specific risks.Chapter 18 Political Risk Assessment and Management 85 15.U.S.Anti-Bribery Law.The United States has a law prohibiting U.S.firms from bribin

50、g foreign officials and business persons,even in countries where bribery is a normal practice.Some U.S.firms claim this places the United States at a disadvantage compared to host-country firms and other foreign firms that are not hampered by such a law.Discuss the ethics and practicality of the U.S