《工程力学A》课程教学大纲Title.pptx

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1、1COMPARABILITY OF SAVING AND PROFIT RATIOSOECD National Accounts Experts MeetingChateau de la Muette,Paris7-10 October 20032BackgroundnDiscussion of alternative household saving measures at October 2002 NAEMnECB/OECD projectDetailed examination of institutional sector accounts for the euro area,the

2、United States and Japan with particular emphasis on household saving ratios,profit ratios and investment ratiosnScope of this paperHousehold saving ratiosProfit ratios3Household saving ratiosnIssues relating to the basic measure of the household saving ratioGross or net?Include NPISH?Change in net e

3、quity of households on pension fundsAdjusted household disposable incomenProposed definition for use in OECD Statistical Databases(including Annex Table 24 of Economic Outlook)nFurther adjustments to the household saving ratio4Statistical Annex Table 24,OECD Economic Outlook nReproduced as Table 1-s

4、hows household saving ratios for 21 member countriesnFootnotes to this table indicate differences in the data currently being published for various countriesnOECD Economics Department tends to use measures for the household saving ratio and other variables that will be readily recognised in the memb

5、er countriesHence what is published by member countries in their own national accounts has an effect on international comparability5Gross or net household savingnNet is the preferred measurenOnly use gross if COFC estimates are deficientnData for 7 countries is currently shown grossnRecommendation 1

6、:It is recommended that the seven countries(Belgium,Denmark,Italy,Portugal,Spain,Switzerland and the United Kingdom)include household saving ratios in their national accounts publications on a net basis instead of,or in addition to,the gross measures.6Include NPISHnData for 5 countries currently exc

7、lude NPISHnRecommendation 2:In the interests of international comparability it is recommended that the five countries(Czech Republic,Finland,France,Japan and New Zealand)also include household saving ratios for households including NPISH in their national accounts publications.7Change in net equity

8、of households on pension fundsnCurrent definition:B8/(B6+D8)Where B8=Net household saving B6=Net household disposable income D8=Change in net equity of households on pension fundsnTable 2 provides household saving ratios using this formula and data from the OECD annual SNA93 databasenRecommendation

9、3:It is recommended that countries that have a non-nil value for the adjustment for the change in equity of households on pension funds(D8)should verify that their own saving ratios are consistent with this definition.8Adjusted household disposable incomenNew concepts introduced in SNA93Collective a

10、nd individual consumption for general governmentSocial transfers in kindActual final consumptionAdjusted household disposable incomenNew account in SNA93 Use of adjusted disposable income accountnThese enable a more internationally comparable household saving ratio to be computed9Adjusted household

11、disposable income(cont)nNet household saving(B8)/Net adjusted household disposable income(B7)+Adjustment for the change in equity of households on pension funds(D8)nTable 3 provides household saving ratios for member countries using this definition and using data from the OECD annual SNA93 database.

12、nTable 4 shows the differences between this measure and the current measure for the household saving ratio shown in Table 2.10Proposed definition for the household saving rationRecommendation 4:The household saving ratio for inclusion in OECD Statistical Databases(including Annex Table 24 of the OEC

13、D Economic Outlook)should be defined as follows:Net household saving(B8)/Net adjusted household disposable income(B7)+Adjustment for the change in equity of households on pension funds(D8)nThe ratio should be calculated including NPISH for the present.11Proposed definition for the household saving r

14、atio(cont)nIt is also recommended that countries publish this measure of household saving in their own national accounts publications in addition to the traditional measure.nQuestion:Are those countries that publish quarterly household saving ratios able to provide estimates for individual consumpti

15、on for general government on a quarterly basis?12Adjustments to the household saving rationCapital gains taxesnDirect taxes versus taxes on production and importsnReal net interest payments for householdsnHousehold durablesnPotential and realised capital gains/lossesnOther issues regarding pensionsn

16、Treatment of unincorporated enterprisesnFinancial accounts measure13Adjustments to the household saving ratio(cont)nStatistics Directorate is working towards alternative saving measuresnNeed to recognise the limitations of some of the proposed adjustments since it cannot be assumed that the economic

17、 behaviour of households would be unaffected if different institutional arrangements actually existed in particular countries.14Capital gains taxesnProposed adjustmentTreat capital gains taxes as capital transfers rather than current transfersAdd back capital gains taxes to household saving and hous

18、ehold disposable income nOECD paper to be discussed under agenda item 29Seems unlikely that a change in SNA93 will be recommended to the ISWGNAnItem for capital gains taxes added to Table 90015Direct taxes versus taxes on production and importsnSaving is not affected by the mix of these taxes but ho

19、usehold disposable income isnHow adjust?Replace taxes on production etc by income taxesReplace income taxes by taxes on production etcUse a standard mix of taxes for all countriesnSuggest the first of these alternativesDeduct taxes on production etc from HDInIssuesTaxes on production etc or taxes on

20、 products?Net of subsidies?16Direct taxes versus taxes on production and imports(cont)nIssues(cont)How much is attributable to actual final consumption?Some of the production taxes could be replaced by income taxes on corporations rather than all on householdsnDifficult to estimate what part of taxe

21、s on production is attributable to actual final consumptionnNo reason to ignore subsidiesnTherefore,propose using taxes on products less subsidies on products as a rough approximationnTable 5(adjusted ratios)and Table 6(differences)17Real net interest payments for householdsnAdjustment for the effec

22、t of inflation on interest rates and interest flowsnNeutral interestnReal interest=Nominal interest-neutral interestnOnly include real interest flows when deriving household saving and HDI,therefore need toDeduct neutral interest on assetsAdd neutral interest on liabilitiesnAssets used for adjustmen

23、t should include assets held on households behalf by pension funds,life insurance corporations and mutual funds etc18Household durablesnHouseholds regard consumer durables as assetsnRental equivalence approach could be used to derive alternative estimates in satellite accountsHowever,rental markets

24、for long term use of consumer durables may not be well developedTherefore,if we assume no operating surplus is generated from consumer durables an approximate adjustment is to subtract expenditure on durables from,and add consumption of fixed capital on durables to,HFCEConsequently,household saving

25、would be increased by net investment in consumer durables19Household durables(cont)nOECD and Eurostat are discussing proposals for additional data collection regarding household durables and dwellingsCOFC for household durables,Capital stock for dwellings and household durables,Capital gains/losses

26、on dwellingsnRecommendation 5:Countries are encouraged to compile separate estimates of household final consumption expenditure,capital stock and consumption of fixed capital for consumer durables.20Capital gains and lossesnHave a significant impact on wealth and consumption of households but are no

27、t included in household income in SNA93nPotential versus realised capital gainsDifferent impact on consumption than income from production or transfersImpact may be different for realised as opposed to potential capital gainsNominal or real capital gains?21Capital gains and losses(cont)nRecommendati

28、on 6:Rather than adjusting the household saving ratio for capital gains/losses directly,it is recommended that capital gains/losses be used as an additional explanatory variable when analysing household consumption behaviour.22PensionsnDefined benefit schemesProblem of under or over fundingnUnfunded

29、 pension schemesActual pensions do not match accruing liabilities for these schemesnSocial security versus private pension schemesDifferent institutional arrangements contribute to observed differences in household saving ratios 23PensionsnRecommendation 7:It is recommended that adjustments in relat

30、ion to social security schemes should be undertaken as a special exercise and not combined with other adjustments to derive an alternative measure of the household saving ratio.The pensions EDG sponsored by the IMF provides an opportunity to resolve the problems caused by defined benefit schemes and

31、 unfunded pension schemes for public sector employees in the context of the forthcoming revision of SNA93.Anne Harrisons paper on the pensions EDG makes a valuable contribution concerning this issue.24Unincorporated enterprisesnFor which countries are unincorporated enterprises that are treated as q

32、uasi-corporate quantitatively significant?nDo such countries compile estimates for compensation of employees for working proprietors in quasi-corporations or is the labour return to these working proprietors included in operating surplus?nDo such countries have separate data on the level of withdraw

33、als from quasi-corporations or do they simply assume that all of the entrepreneurial income of quasi-corporations is transferred to households in the current period?25Financial accounts measurenChange in financial position(financial account)versus Net lending(capital account)nIf all of the differenc

34、e is assumed to be caused by deficiencies in income flows then can derive the following alternative measure of the household saving ratioTable 7 gives these ratios,and Table 8 shows the difference between these ratios and those in Table 2.nObviously the differences could be caused by deficiencies in

35、 any of the items in the income,capital or financial accounts26Additional measures for the household saving rationAn alternative measure or a series of alternative measures?nDo countries have a preference for whether a series of saving ratios should be compiled,each including an adjustment for one f

36、actor or whether a single alternative measure should be compiled that includes adjustments for all(or as many as possible)of the various factors simultaneously?27Profit ratiosnCountry practicesnTypes of profit ratiosnDefinitionsGross or net?NumeratorDenominator for rates of returnDenominator for pro

37、fit sharenInstitutional sector scope28Country practicesnProfit ratios are presented in many different ways by member countriesUnited KingdomGross balance of primary incomes for non-financial corporations as a share of gross national incomeEconomic Trends article containing data for 34 countries for

38、net operating surplus over net capital stock plus inventories for non-financial corporationsUnited States8 ratios;4 rate of return measures and 4 profit share measuresRatios relate to private non-financial corporations29Country practices(cont)United States(cont)Net operating surplus and net entrepre

39、neurial income are used both before and after income tax as the numerator for each type of measure (Note:Different terminology is used by BEA)Net capital stock plus inventories is used as the denominator for rate of return measuresNet factor income less NOS for public corporations is used as the den

40、ominator for profit share measures AustraliaGross operating surplus for financial and non-financial corporations divided by total factor incomeFranceGOS/Gross value added at basic prices for all enterprises(corporate and quasi-corporate plus unincorporated)30Types of profit ratiosnRates of returnPro

41、fit over capital stockUsed for profitability studiesnProfit sharesProfit over GDP,GNI or total factor incomeUsed for analyses of returns to labour and capitalnProfit marginProfit over outputNot recommended at the macro economy level31Definitions for rate of return and profit share measuresnGross or

42、netBoth numerator and denominator should be net of consumption of fixed capitalUse gross measure if consumption of fixed capital estimates are deficientnNumerator(for both rates of return and profit shares)Net operating surplusIndependent of the extent to which borrowed funds are usedEntrepreneurial

43、 incomeAfter receipts of property income and payments of interest and rent on non-produced assets used by the business 32Definitions for rate of return and profit share measures(cont)nDenominator for rate of return measuresNet capital stock for produced assetsIncluding inventories?Non-produced tangi

44、ble assets?Non-produced intangible assets?nDenominator for profit share measuresNet domestic productNet factor incomeWhole economyInstitutional sector used for numerator33Institutional sector scopenNon-financial corporationsnFinancial corporationsnFinancial and non-financial corporationsnCorporation

45、s and unincorporated enterprisesIdeally mixed income should be split into a return to the labour provided by working proprietors and a return to capitalnPrivate and public sub-sectors for corporations34Recommendations regarding profit ratiosnProfit margin type ratios using output as the denominator

46、should not be compiled at the macro economy level.nRates of return and profit shares should be calculated net of consumption of fixed capital,unless COFC estimates are seriously deficient.nNet operating surplus should be used as the numerator if rates of return are being calculated at an industry le

47、vel.nOtherwise,net operating surplus or entrepreneurial income may be used as the numerator for both rates of return and profit share measures.35Recommendations regarding profit ratios(cont)nFor rate of return measures the net capital stock should be defined to include produced assets and inventorie

48、s.nFor profit share measures various ratios may be calculated depending on the analyses being undertaken.nIf a pure profit share measure is required,the variables in both the numerator and denominator should relate to the institutional sector(s)for which the ratio is being calculated.36Recommendatio

49、ns regarding profit ratios(cont)nRecommendation 8:The ratio of net operating surplus divided by net factor income for the non-financial corporations sector should be one of the profit share ratios included in OECD Statistical Databases(including the Statistical Annex of the OECD Economic Outlook).Ot

50、her profit share ratios should also be considered for inclusion.nTable 9 provides profit share ratios for non-financial corporations using data from the OECD annual SNA93 databasenCountry views are welcome on the most appropriate profit ratios for inclusion in OECD Statistical Databases(including th