首席经济学家2021年中展望.docx

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1、ContentsShaping the recovery momentum 41. Avoiding economic scarring 8Reversing domestic polarization and international divergence 122. Accelerating the climate transition 15References 17Acknowledgments 19Cover: GETTY/lzusek3. Reversing domestic polarization and international divergenceGovernments t

2、hat could afford to offer payouts during the lockdown period were generous with emergency financial support to households and businesses. Still, the economic crisis had a disproportionately negative effect within countries on groups who have historically been disadvantaged based on their race, ethni

3、city, gender or socioeconomic status.The younger generation is also facing a particular uphill battle, having experienced two global crises in just over a decade. According to a recent global workforce survey, 78% of Generation Z of 18-24 year olds saw their professional life affected by the crisis,

4、 and 39% lost their job, were furloughed or temporarily laid off. While still relatively high at 83%, optimism among Gen Z employees about their work life fell 10% during the pandemic, the biggest drop across all generations. ADP, 2021.The crisis accelerated automation, which has deepened labour mar

5、ket polarization within countries across all generations and is now turning into a recovery where some routine jobs will come back but will no longer be undertaken by human labour.The climate transition is an additional challenge that looks set to further increase labour market tensions within count

6、ries and regions if not properly managed. The regions most in need of transformation away from carbon-intensive activity are often those with the lowest living standards; such regions tend to also have structural weaknesses in labour markets and will therefore have a tougher time transforming, requi

7、ring very targeted interventions from governments. EIB, 2021. A lack of green skills is currently a major bottleneck for firms looking to transform their production. Ibid; Kimbrough, 2021 a and 2021b.All of these forces together make for a challenging and complex dynamic that will need to be careful

8、ly managed through well-targeted government and business action. Beyond innovative labour and education policies, this will need to include a transformation of existing tax systems and greater efforts by firms to create true equality of opportunity in hiring, pay and progression. See World Economic

9、Forum, forthcoming, chapters 1 to 4.Upskilling and reskilling will be the most important pathways to countering labour market polarization and will require close coordination among governments, businesses and educational institutions. See World Economic Forum, forthcoming, chapters 2 and 3. The oppo

10、rtunities that lie in getting this right are tremendous. Recent models of potential gains from implementing OECD methodologies on upskilling suggest that even a conservative scenario could see a $5 trillion level shift in GDP globally as well as improvements in the quality of work and worker satisfa

11、ction. PwC, 2021.On the other hand, failure to address the deep and growing divisions in opportunities and outcomes could trigger more social unrest, providing new momentum to the wave that was gathering force around the world before the pandemic. Survey respondents feel there is indeed a significan

12、t risk of increased social unrest in the near future.Social unrest can be expected to increase around the world in the near term.Source: Chief Economists SurveyIP protection related to COVID-19 vaccines should be lifted in order to accelerate its production and distribution across the world.10Strong

13、ly Agree Uncertain Disagree Strongly agreedisagreeSource: Chief Economists SurveyAcross countries, convergence has also stalled, and gaps have increased between countries that were able to afford fiscal rescue measures and vaccines and those that were not. Internationally, growing divergence in reso

14、urces and public health outcomes will have to be reversed through more generous fiscal support and faster access to vaccines for low- and middle-income countries. Rogoff, 2021. The US made a recent push for lifting patents on vaccines, which has, however, faced international headwinds. A number of s

15、urvey respondents agreed that a lifting of IP could help to accelerate the global roll-out, with the caveat that companies which developed the vaccines should be compensated in such a case as market incentives played an important role in the speediness with which COVID vaccines were developed. An al

16、ternative would be more generous funding for the COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) facility. The IMF has put forward a proposal for targets and means to end the pandemic costing $50 billion. Georgieva et al, 2021How governments now manage the transition to accelerate structural change that bri

17、ngs more inclusive outcomes within countries will be as critical as the action of the international community to bridge gaps across countries.The tougher the pressures domestically, the more temptation there will be for internal political forces to ramp up protectionist measures. While multilaterali

18、sm is currently seeing a revival, political forces are building in many countries that may put this reopening into question. Rachman, 2021. Even in the current circumstances of a relative detente, tensions between large powers remain and are generally expected to increase over the medium run. While

19、some point out that the high level of interconnectedness today will counteract political efforts to further escalate such tensions, the rhetoric of self-reliance is getting louder and dependence on other countries is portrayed as a vulnerability by politicians rather than a source of mutual gain. Th

20、e COVID crisis made clear that trading relationships between countries cannot be taken for granted, as health measures and national interest took priority.An additional and currently underestimated danger that could also derail the recovery and future growth are large-scale cyberattacks, including t

21、hose performed by state actors. Indeed, survey respondents see the largest tensions or conflict potential internationally arising from cyberattacks, followed by technology and trade tensions.Strongly agreeAgreeUncertainDisagreeStrongly disagree Trade Technology CyberattacksTensions between major eco

22、nomies can be expected to increase significantly in the medium run in the following areas: 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0Source: Chief Economists SurveyAccelerating the climate transitionAs more recovery measures start to be implemented, the coming months will be critical for putting the climate transitio

23、n on the right track. Expectations of policymakers for timely guidance, public investments and reliable framework conditions are high, as the biggest bottleneck for private investment in the green transition currently is policy uncertainty. EIB. 2021. Progress on this front will be critical to rein

24、in the slowest burning but by far most destructive of the risks to the current recovery trajectory.Investment has been hit hard by the pandemic, and investment shortfalls in Europe, for example, are much larger than recovery packages can compensate for. On the public side, 70% of surveyed European m

25、unicipalities report investment gaps with respect to climate change mitigation and adaptation in the last three years. ibid On the private-sector side, the urgency to adapt post-pandemic and to close pre-pandemic investment gaps is well understood by firms. Yet important obstacles to climate investm

26、ents, in particular uncertainty about regulation, investment costs and skills shortages, remain.There is significant potential for firms to create new value at the intersection of green and digital, giving rise to the possibility of a twin transformation. Firms that are in the top 20% for both the g

27、reen and digitaltransformation are seeing an acceleration of revenue and profitability and are 2.5 times more likely to become industry leaders. Accenture, 2021.transformation are seeing an acceleration of revenue and profitability and are 2.5 times more likely to become industry leaders. Accenture,

28、 2021. Importantly, we are seeing a levelling of the playing field at this intersection. The cards are being reshuffled and the winners of tomorrow will not necessarily be the winners of the past.There is hope for new progress on climate and environmental protection since the US rejoined the Paris A

29、greement earlier this year and an increasing number of countries and businesses are making commitments to carbon neutrality. A significant number of members of the Chief Economists Community believe that 2050 is not ambitious enough for net-zero targets and are instead looking for such targets to be

30、 advanced - some even suggest to before 2035. In particular, there is a feeling that climate action must be moved from being an afterthought to targets to becoming an immediate priority. This would need to entail more political will and bigger commitments from businesses. Survey respondents believe,

31、 on average, that the likelihood of 2050 targets to be reached is 50% for governments and 62% for businesses.While national governments have hesitated to adopt a carbon tax, there is a consensus among survey respondents that this may well be the most effective instrument to reach targets for carbonn

32、eutrality. A uniform carbon price would be a much-needed coordination signal for the massive public and private investment that will be required to prevent a climate catastrophe. At the same time, it would provide revenue to alleviate the burden of adaptation on the weakest households, firms and reg

33、ions and provide funds for upgrading infrastructure.29In order to serve as an effective and credible coordination mechanism, the carbon price faced by all actors, sectors, regions and technologies should be uniform.Governments may need to allow some time for convergence to a uniform price and financ

34、ial transfers can help to bridge gaps between different adjustment speeds.30Since prices set in existing schemes remain too low, cost-benefit analyses and other models should aim to use the shadow price of carbon that would be required to meet current climate ambitions. A uniform carbon price, howev

35、er, while possibly being the most effective policy instrument, will need to be complemented with education as well as social and regulatory nudges.Taking a global approach to the green transition and supporting investments in green technology and skills, including lower-productivity firms and disadv

36、antaged workers, seems to be one of the most constructive ways of countering the forces that are driving todays K-shaped recovery.The optimal deadline for net-zeroA carbon tax is among the most effectiveSource: Chief Economists SurveySource: Chief Economists SurveyReferencesAccenture Research, 2021,

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