“十四五”规划促进高质量发展（中英）.docx

《“十四五”规划促进高质量发展（中英）.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《“十四五”规划促进高质量发展（中英）.docx（11页珍藏版）》请在淘文阁 - 分享文档赚钱的网站上搜索。

1、Abstract摘要 The 14th Five-Year Plan (20212025) (the Plan) for National Economic and Social Development of the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) was approved on March 2021. The Plan highlights high-quality, green development. Building on the achievements of the 13th Plan, it aims to reduce the carbon in

2、tensity of the economy and to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030. The Plan emphasizes innovation as the core of modern development, relying on the dual circulation strategy as the growth paradigm coupled with reforms to increase living standards.中华人民共和国(中国)“国民经济和社会开展第十四个五年规划”(“十四五”规划) (202120

3、25年)于2021年3月审议通过，强调高质量、绿色开展。基于“十三五”规划取得 的成果，“十四五”规划的目标是降低经济的碳强度，并在2030年前到达二氧化碳排放峰值。 “十四五”规划强调，创新是现代开展的核心，要依托双循环战略作为增长模式，结合各项改 革，提高人们的生活水平。 In support of inclusive urbanization, the Plan announces reforms to further relax the household registration system (hukou), provide more equal access to public

4、services for migrants, as well as increase labor mobility through cross-region development plans. The Plan also reflects the need to improve the public health system and to develop a long-term elderly care system.为了支持包容性城市化，“十四五”规划宣布通过改革进一步放宽户籍制度(户口)限制，为流动 人口提供更平等的公共服务，同时制定跨区域开展计划，促进劳动力跨区域流动。“十四五”规划

5、 还提出，要改善公共卫生系统，开展长期养老体系。 Key recommendations include continued rebalancing of the economy toward services, to which increased household consumption could contribute. Strengthening household consumption would also increase domestic demand. Better access to quality public health and elderly care, and

6、education would reduce the need for precautionary saving.主要建议包括继续推动经济再平衡，通过增加居民消费，促进经济向服务业转型。提升居民消费 也可拉动内需。改善高质量公共卫生、养老和教育服务，可减少预防性储蓄的需要。 Carbon dioxide emission reduction plans should be accelerated. With manufacturing expected to keep a stable share in the economy, aiming for peak emissions before

7、 2030 will put enormous pressure on the economy to reach carbon neutrality by 2060.应加快减少二氧化碳的排放。由于预计制造业占经济的比重将保持稳定，在2030年前实现碳排放 达峰的目标将给中国经济在2060年之前到达碳中和带来巨大压力。 Integrating urban-rural areas and reducing differences between their living standards would require an integrated approach of hukou, land, a

8、nd social security reforms paired with improved job opportunities and equal access to health care and education in rural areas. Establishing a sustainable 的社会包容性，提高开展模式的环境可持续性。此外，随着中国自主开展高科技，将国内创新置 于开展议程的核心会使政策制定者面临新的挑战。在此背景下，本报告提出如下政策建议。A.增长与创新.重点关注服务业。“十四五”规划将重点放在制造业，与加强国内制造业和高科技创新能力 的努力保持一致，但可能不利

9、于服务业的开展，并减缓开展速度。服务业在提高生产效率、促进 技术进步和推动创新方面发挥着重要作用。此外，服务业生产的碳足迹通常显著低于制造业。为 发挥服务业作为增长来源的潜力，应将服务业放在经济规划的突出位置，并在财政激励、资源配 置和对外开放方面赋予其与制造业类似的地位。扩大服务业规模，将吸收制造业和农业的剩余劳 动力，为每年进入劳动力市场的很大一局部新劳动者提供就业。此外，放宽外国劳动者就业规定 以及实施税收优惠政策，可促进高价值服务业的开展，特别是在高科技和金融服务领域。13 .提升人力资本。虽然“十四五”规划的重点是增加受教育年限，但也需要扩大高等教育规 模，因为技术升级需要的是高技能

10、劳动力，而不是中低技能劳动力。预期经济数字化程度的提高 以及卫生和教育服务的改善也将要求提升人力资本。学习方法应鼓励终身学习、创造、革新以及 培养解决问题的技能，同时，应在公司层面采取奖励措施，提供在职培训。促进使用英语将有助 于吸收技术转让和创新所带来的效益。中国的水质分类制度是基于使用目的和保护目标。III类标准包括饮用水集中水源保护区、常见鱼类保护区、游泳区； IV类标准涉及提供一般工业用水的水体及人类不直接接触的休闲水域；V类标准主要适用于提供农业用水和一般景观 用水的水体。14 .支持创新。创新驱动型增长是实现长期可持续增长的关键。“十四五”规划提出，要加大研 发投资。在这些努力中，

11、确保更高比例的研发支出用于研究非常重要，因为大多数资金通常被用 于开展。虽然公共财政支持至关重要，但如果能撬动私募股权投资和风险投资，增加创新型企业 的融资渠道，私营部门也将能够做出巨大贡献。大学和私人基金会参与资助研发，也可以支持政 府的努力。创新领域的选择也非常重要。“十四五”规划致力于在多个领域推动创新，减少对外 国技术的依赖，以实现更好的效果。建议将重点放在少数先进科技领域，而在其他领域那么进行全 球采购这是大多数兴旺经济体所采用的方法。B.双循环模式.促进居民消费。要扩大内需，就必须促进居民消费。为此，需要改善卫生和教育服务，减少 预防性储蓄2019年，中国的家庭储蓄占GDP的比率仍

12、高达44.0% ,远超世界平均水平。此 外，完善再分配政策（如高累进税制）有助于把资源转移到消费倾向往往更高的低收入群体，进 而促进消费。加大经济适用房供应可以支持居民消费。大城市房价上涨，导致年轻一代买不起 房。然而，旨在提高生育率和推进城市化的政策取决于城市中负担得起的居住空间。需要加大力 度开发经济适用房，同时采取更严格的调控措施，遏制投机性购房。在这方面，开征房产税将有 助于抑制房地产市场的投机性投资，并为地方政府开发经济适用房提供资金支持。16 .提高经济效率。经济效率是双循环模式能否成功的关键。鉴于国有企业的垄断地位，提高其 效率仍然是关键。降低准入壁垒和加强反垄断执法，将有助于降

13、低市场集中度，促进良性竞争。 这将有利于降低生产本钱和价格，提高产品和服务的财务可负担性和质量，进而促进消费，增强 内需对经济增长的拉动作用。市场自由化程度的提高将促使私营部门更多地参与经济活动，进一 步提高经济效率。需要加大力度，消除服务业准入壁垒，特别是在卫生和教育领域，这对解决社 会老龄化和经济技术升级的挑战至关重要。17 .加强制度与能力建设，支持改革。为向注重人民福祉的开展模式过渡，需要加强制度能力。 这一点在地方层面和落后地区尤其重要，大多数旨在支持高质量开展的公共投资和服务必须流向 地方层面和落后地区。在此背景下，应进一步推进改革，协调中央与地方的财政关系。由于大部 分公共教育和

14、医疗卫生服务由地方政府提供，因此需要扩大地方政府的财政收入基础，加强财政 管理能力，确保公共服务供给到位。C.环境与气候变化.宏大的环保目标。要在2030年前到达二氧化碳排放峰值，需要制定更宏大的能源和碳强度目 标。例如，在2020年的基础上将碳强度降低23% ,而不是提议的18% ,会更有可能实现该目标。 虽然“十四五”规划并没有设定能源消费总量的上限，但省级规划可以设定宏大的上限目标，同 时实施更严格的能效法规。在私营部门的支持下，加大对创新能效技术的开发力度对降低能源强 度至关重要。此外，对未能到达基准要求的工厂和工业，应采用包括处分在内的奖惩机制。18 .促进低碳开展和循环经济。要扩大

15、低碳开展规模，就需要加大对战略性清洁与低碳技术（即 碳排放、捕集利用和储存技术以及绿色氢技术）的投资，增加将碳排放补贴和信贷视为资产的市 场工具。例如，在减少温室气体和废弃物排放、实施排放控制执法与监测以及推动绿色技术创新 等具有联动效益的改革支持下，启动全国“碳排放交易系统”试点，可以为开发首个碳排放期货 产品铺平道路。此外，还建议打造低碳城市，改善水资源和土地管理，并推广循环经济，降低各 城市和产品生命周期的环境、经济和社会本钱。D.城乡不平衡和人口结构趋势.加快农村开展。在农村地区创造就业机会，鼓励外出务工人员返乡就业，并增加农业以外的 创收活动（如农业服务、生态旅游和绿色工作岗位），留

16、住农村地区的人口，这对于缩小城乡差 距至关重要。重点领域可包括：（1 ）推进农村土地改革，促进农业规模化、租赁化和现代化； （2）采取政策行动，通过气候智能型技术和具有气候韧性的基础设施建设，提高农业价值链的 韧性；（3）提供财政激励，吸引民间资本到农村地区投资，促进中小微企业的开展；（4 ）提高 公共服务和技能培训工程的质量和可获得性，为返乡务工人员提供更好的服务；以及（5 ）加强 生态系统治理，以保护生态多样性，并保护那些依靠自然资源谋生者的生计。19 .建立三级养老服务体系。“十四五”规划强调，由于中国的养老体系建设仍处于开展起步阶 段，建设有包容性的长期养老体系十分重要。要加强对构建“

17、以居家养老为基础、社区养老为依 托、机构养老为补充”高效三级养老体系的重视。在居家养老和社区养老服务缺乏的农村地区， 这些需求尤其迫切。为满足这些需求，需要建设一个由公共和私营部门提供资金支持的可持续财 政框架。通过改革当前基于投入补贴的机制，重点关注服务和绩效，才能提供更高质量、更经济 和更能满足社会需求的服务。例如，可向接受服务的人（而不是基于设施或床位数）提供补贴， 让受益人根据服务质量选择服务提供者等。The 14th Five-Year Plan of the Peoples Republic of ChinaFostering High-Quality DevelopmentThi

18、s policy notes outlines recommendations for the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021 -2025) for National Economic and Social Development of the Peoples Republic of China that highlights high-quality green development. The plan emphasizes innovation as the core of modern development, relying on the dual circula

19、tion strategy as the growth paradigm coupled with reforms to increase living standards. Building on the achievements of the 13th Plan, it aims to reduce the carbon intensity of the economy and peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030. This policy notes recommendations focus on innovation-driven gro

20、wth, low-carbon development, integration of urban-rural areas with deeper social inclusion, and population aging as priorities.About the Asian Development BankADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradi

21、cate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members一 49 from the region. Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, and technical assistance.中华人民共和国第十四个五年规划推进高质量开展中华人民共和国“国民经济和社会开展第十四个五年规划”（“十四

22、五”规划）（20212025年）强调 高质量、绿色开展，本政策说明对这一规划提出了建议。“十四五”规划强调，创新是现代开展的核心， 要依托双循环战略作为增长模式，结合各项改革，提高人们的生活水平。基于“十三五”规划取得的成 果十四五”规划的目标是降低经济的碳强度，并在2030年之前到达二氧化碳排放峰值。针对创新驱动 型增长、低碳开展、城乡融合与提高社会包容度、人口老龄化等重点领域，本政策说明提出了政策建议。financial framework for an inclusive long-term elderly care system remains a pressing issue as

23、society ages.城乡地区融合开展和缩小城乡居民生活水平差异，需要采取户籍、土地和社会保障改革的综合方法， 同时需要改善农村地区就业机会，提供平等的医疗和教育服务。随着社会老龄化，为包容性长期养老 体系建立可持续财政框架仍然是一个紧迫问题。I. INTRODUCTIONThe 14th Five-Year Plan (20212025) (the Plan) for National Economic and Social Development of the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) was approved by the 13th Nation

24、al People s Congress on March 2021. Departing from the emphasis on economic growth and restructuring that was characteristic of the past, the Plan focuses on the sustainability of growth and the quality of life.1. The Plan envisages renewed efforts to close the urbanrural divide, paves the way to pe

25、ak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality before 2060. These objectives are reinforced by the longer-term perspective of the PRCs Vision 2035, which lays down the path for the country to become a moderately developed country and a global leader in innovation by 2035.2. The

26、new policy guidelines will be refined in the coming months and implementation blueprints will map out the envisaged reforms. Innovation-driven growth, low-carbon development, deeper social inclusion, and population aging are priorities that deserve attention. Making the right policy choices in these

27、 areas is essential for success. This policy note outlines policy recommendations to that end.II. THE MAIN OBJECTIVES OF THE 14TH FIVE-YEAR PLANThe Plan has 20 quantitative targets, 8 of them binding, under five categories: economic development, innovation, peoples well-being, green development, and

28、 food and energy security.The eight binding targets of the Plan are: average years of education of the working-age population up to 11.3 years; reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP by 13.5% from 2020 level; reduction of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 18% from 2020 level; shar

29、e of days with good air quality in cities at prefecture level and above up to 87.5%; share of surface water at or better than grade III up to 85%; forest coverage rate up to 24.1%; comprehensive grain production capacity (650 million tons); and comprehensive energy production capacity (4.6 billion t

30、ons of coal equivalent).3. The Plan has 20 quantitative targets, 8 of them binding, under five categories: economic development, innovation, peoples well-being, green development, and food and energy security.The eight binding targets of the Plan are: average years of education of the working-age po

31、pulation up to 11.3 years; reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP by 13.5% from 2020 level; reduction of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 18% from 2020 level; share of days with good air quality in cities at prefecture level and above up to 87.5%; share of surface water at or bet

32、ter than grade III up to 85%; forest coverage rate up to 24.1%; comprehensive grain production capacity (650 million tons); and comprehensive energy production capacity (4.6 billion tons of coal equivalent). It is noteworthy that seven targets focus on people s well-being, the highest proportion in

33、any plan. This section highlights the key objectives of the Plan in four main areas.A. Growth and InnovationAnnual gross domestic product growth targets for the first time. Deviating from past practice, the Plan does not include a gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for the 5-year period.Grow

34、th targets will be set up annually allowing greater flexibility for policy makers to adjust growth targets to macroeconomic conditions. The country s longer-term development goal of becoming a moderately developed country by 2035 implies doubling the size of the economy by then, which requires an av

35、erage annual GDP growth of 4.7% over the coming 15 years. Other targets include labor productivity growing faster than GDP, which is important in the context of an aging society with a shrinking labor force.4. Manufacturing and digitalization gain prominence. The Plan aims to keep the share of manuf

36、acturing in GDP stable after a decade of decline. Fiscal incentives, wider access to credit, and more efficient industrial land use are among the tools to support the sector. The digitalization of the economy will continue with the share of the digital economy in GDP set to increase to 10% of GDP by

37、 2025, from 7.8% in 2020. Cloud computing, big data, internet (including internet of things and industrial internet), block chain, artificial intelligence, and virtual and augmented reality will be supported.5. Innovation at the center of the modernization agenda. A 10-year action plan for basic res

38、earchand an annual increase in research and development (R&D) spending by at least 7% are at the core of the PRCs initiative to enhance scientific and technological capability. This is expected to unleash indigenous innovation and reduce the countrys reliance on foreign inputs, mostly in high-techno

39、logy manufactured goods. Efforts will focus on aerospace, biotech, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and semiconductors, where the country expects to become a global leader in the longer term.6. Dual CirculationA new development paradigm. The Plan introduces a new development

40、 concept, the dual circulation paradigm. It targets the expansion of domestic demand through strengthened supply chains supported by industrial policies, indigenous innovation, and increased domestic consumption. This approach envisages less reliance on heavy industries by proposing a new target to

41、increase the share of the strategic emerging industries (i.e., advanced manufacturing, including high-end machinery and equipment, advanced materials, and electric vehicles) from 11.5% of GDP in 2019 to over 17% by 2025. The approach also includes reforms to increase market competition and improve t

42、he efficiency of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) through incentive mechanisms and gradually adopting market-based salaries.C. Environment and Climate ChangeToward carbon neutrality. Green development features prominently in the Plan with five of the eight binding targets set in this area. During 2021

43、2025, energy and carbon intensity are targeted to decline by 13.5% for energy and 18% for carbon intensity per unit of GDP. Other binding targets include increasing (i) the share of days with good air quality in cities up to 87.5% (from 87% in 2020); (ii) the share of surface water at or better than

44、 grade III up to 85% (from 83.4% in 2020);2and (iii) forest coverage up to 24.1% (from 23.2% in 2019). As a nonbinding indicator, the proportion of nonfossil fuels in primary energy consumption is set at 20% from 15% in the previous plan. The Plan promotes low-carbon development and the circular eco

45、nomy with new approaches to transport, energy production, and waste management policies.D. Urban-Rural Inequalities and Demographic TrendsIntegrated urban-rural development. In the context of promoting more balanced regional development, the Plan steps up efforts toward an integrated development mod

46、el to close the urban- rural divide. The Plan stresses the need for a comprehensive rural transformation, including the modernization of the agriculture sector and the promotion of green and smart agriculture, to generate attractive employment and investment opportunities in rural areas. In cities,

47、urbanization, set to rise to 65% by 2025 from about 60% in 2019, will prioritize a more equal access to public services for migrants with links to cross-region development plans. Labor mobility will be fostered by removing hukou (residential permit) restrictions for cities with 35 million residents

48、coupled by an increased supply of affordable housing.10. Better living standards. The Plan outlines actions to increase living standards and access to quality public services, including measures to (i) increase peoples incomes, (ii) boost employment opportunities, (iii) build inclusive high-quality

49、education and health systems, and (iv) enhance the social security system. Out of the seven targets directly related to people s well-being, three are new: (i) surveyed unemployment rate capped at 5.5%, (ii) certified assistant doctors up to 3.2 per 1,000 population, and (iii) nursery school places for infants under 3 years up to 4.5 per 1,000 population.111. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONSThe Plan presents a unique opportunity to transit toward high-quality development by addressing th