供应链习题课复习过程.doc
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1、Good is good, but better carries it.精益求精,善益求善。供应链习题课-1.MoonMicroisasmallmanufacturerofserversthatcurrentlybuildsallofitsproductinSantaClara,California.Asthemarketforservershasgrowndramatically,theSantaClaraplanthasreachedcapacityof10,000serversperyear.Moonisconsideringtwooptionstoincreaseitscapacity
2、.Thefirstoptionistoadd10,000unitsofcapacitytotheSantaClaraplantatanannualizedfixedcostof$10,000,000plus$500laborperserver.ThesecondoptionistohaveMolectron,anindependentassembler,manufactureserversforMoonatacostof$2,000foreachserver(excludingrawmaterialscost),rawmaterialscost$8,000perserver,andMoonse
3、llseachserverfor$15,000.Moonmustmakethisdecisionforatwo-yeartimehorizon.Duringeachyear,demandforMoonservershasan80percentchanceofincreasing50percentfromtheyearbeforeanda20percentchanceofremainingthesameastheyearbefore.Molectronspricesmaychangeaswell.Theyarefixedforthefirstyearbuthavea50percentchance
4、ofincreasing20percentinthesecondyearanda50percentchanceofremainingwheretheyare.UsingadecisiontreetodeterminewhetherMoonshouldaddcapacitytoitsSantaClaraplantorifitshouldoutsourcetoMolectron.Whataresomeotherfactorsthatwouldaffectthisdecisionthatwehavenotdiscussed.Assumethatadiscountfactoris10percent.注
5、意:Moon已有设备产能为10,000,对两种方案都是一样提供该产能,所以比较增量需求利润即可。OptionAYear2Revenue2=(20,000-10,000)*15,000*0.64+(15,000-10,000)*150,000*(0.16+0.16)+(10,000-10,000)*15,000*0.04Variablecost2=(20,000-10,000)*500*0.64+(15,000-10,000)*500*(0.16+0.16)+(10,000-10,000)*500*0.04Fixedcost2=10,000,000Totalcost2=Variablecost2
6、+Totalcost2Profit2=Revenue2-Totalcost2Year1Revenue1=(15,000-10,000)*15,000*0.8+(10,000-10,000)*150,000*0.2Variablecost1=(15,000-10,000)*500*0.8+(10,000-10,000)*500*0.2Fixedcost1=10,000,000Totalcost1=Variablecost1+Totalcost1Profit1=Revenue1-Totalcost1BaseYear0Profit0=0OptionBYear2Revenue2=(22,500-10,
7、000)*15,000*(0.32+0.32)+(15,000-10,000)*15,000*(0.08+0.08+0.08+0.08)+(10,000-10,000)*15,000*(0.02+0.02)Cost2=(22,500-10,000)*(2000+8000)*0.32+(22,500-10,000)*(2400+8000)*0.32+(15,000-10,000)*(2000+8000)*(0.08+0.08)+(15,000-10,000)*(2400+8000)*(0.08+0.08)+(10,000-10,000)*(2000+8000)*0.02+(10,000-10,0
8、00)*(2400+8000)*0.02Profit2=Revenue2-TotalCost2同理可得Year1,Year0利润,代入下式:比较NPVA,NPVB大者为最优方案!2.WeeklysalesofHotPizzaareasfollows:WeekDemand($)WeekDemand($)WeekDemand($)11085969112211661191010231187961192412481021291Estimatedemandforthenextfourweeksusingafour-weekmovingaverageandsimpleexponentialsmoothin
9、gwith=0.1.EvaluatetheMAD,MAPE,MSE,bias,andTSineachcase.Whichofthetwomethodsdoyouprefer?Why?Refertoexcel!3.HarleyDavidsonhasitsassemblyplantinMilwaukeeanditsmotorcycleassemblyplantinPennsylvania.Enginesaretransportedbetweenthetwoplantsusingtrucks,witheachtripcosting$1000.Themotorcycleplantassemblesan
10、dsells300motorcycleseachday.Eachenginecosts$500,andHarleyincursaholdingcostof20percentperyear.HowmanyenginesshouldHarleyloadontoeachtruck?WhatisthecycleinventoryofenginesatHarley?Solution:Theeconomicorderquantityisgivenby.Inthisproblem:D=109,500(i.e.,300units/daymultipliedby365days/year)S=$1000/orde
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