PresentationtotheAutomotiveNewsWorldCongress(英文版).pptx

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1、Presentation to the Automotive News World Congress Stephen J.GirskyJanuary 2004DisclosuresAnalyst CertificationAnalyst CertificationThe following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have not

2、 received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report:Stephen J.Girsky.Important US Regulartory Disclosures on Subject CompaniesThe information and opinions in this report were prepared by Morgan Stanley&Co.Incorpor

3、ated(“Morgan Stanley”).As of November 28,2003,Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1%or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in this report:Delphi,General Motors,Goodyear Tire&Rubber,Johnson Controls,Magna Intl Inc.,TBC and Tower Automotive.Within the last 12 m

4、onths,Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of DaimlerChrysler AG,Delphi,Ford,General Motors,Standard Motor Products and Tenneco.Within the last 12 months,Morgan Stanley,Morgan Stanley or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from After

5、market Technology,American Axle and Mfg.,BorgWarner Inc.,DaimlerChrysler AG,Delphi,Ford,General Motors,Standard Motor Products,Superior Industries,Tenneco,Tower Automotive and Visteon Corporation.In the next 3 months,Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment ba

6、nking services from Aftermarket Technology,American Axle and Mfg.,ArvinMeritor,AutoNation,Borg Warner Inc.,DaimlerChrysler AG,Dana Corp.,Delphi,Ford,General Motors,Genuine Parts Co.,Goodyear Tire&Rubber,Johnson Controls,Lear Corp.,Lithia Motors,Magna Intl Inc.,Standard Motor Products,Superior Indust

7、ries,Tenneco,Tower Automotive,United Auto Group and Visteon Corporation.The research analysts,strategist,or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of the research report have received compensation based upon various factors,including quality of research,investor client feedb

8、ack,stock picking,competitive factors,firm revenues and investment banking revenues.Morgan Stanley&Co.Incorporated makes a market in the securities of Aftermarket Technology,Delphi,Dura Automotive,Ford,General Motors,Magna Intl.,TBC and Tower Automotive.Global Stock Ratings Distribution(as of Decemb

9、er 31,2003)(Continued)DisclosuresDisclosuresMorgan Stanley is involved in many businesses that may relate to companies mentioned in this report.These businesses include specialized trading,risk arbitrage and other proprietary trading,fund management,investment services and investment banking.Morgan

10、Stanley makes every effort to use reliable,comprehensive information,but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete.We have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change apart from when we intend to discontinue research coverage of subject company.Report

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13、ions.Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized.This publication is disseminated in Japan by Morgan Stanley Japan Limited and/or Morgan Stanley Nippon Securities Limited;in Singapore by organ Sta

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18、ks contained herein are the property of their respective owners.Third-party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy,completeness,or timeliness of the data they provide and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to such data.The

19、 Global Industry Classification Standard(GICS)was developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI and S&P.This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted,sold or redistributed without the written consent of Morgan Stanley.Additional information on recommended securities is available on req

20、uest.OverviewAuto Outlook:Same problems;Less of themGlobal Dilemma:Most participants spending for growth yet the industry does not grow.Demand growth is likely to be modest despite economic recovery.Competitive pressures are likely to remain difficult.Weaker dollar could level provide some offset.Hi

21、gher rates create risk of weaker demand,weaker mix and lower finance company earnings.Big Three opportunity:Actual quality is better than perceived quality.Global Light Vehicle Sales:Slow GrowthCAGR 1.2%Source:LMCJ.D.Power&Morgan Stanley ResearchGlobal Sales Forecasts:2003-2004Source:Global Insight&

22、Morgan Stanley Research*Note forecasts are derived from Global InsightU.S.Sales16.7mm UnitsFY03E16.8mm UnitsFY04ESource:Autodata&Morgan Stanley ResearchJapanese SAAR5.6mm UnitsFY03E5.7mm UnitsFY04ESource:Morgan Stanley ResearchWestern European SAAR14.1mmFY03E14.2mmFY04ESource:Morgan Stanley Research

23、Global Excess Capacity at 25%-30%or 20mm unitsSource:Autofacts&Morgan Stanley ResearchCapEx/D&A FY2003E:OEMs Spending for GrowthSource:Company data&Morgan Stanley Research*Adjusted to fit scaleZero Sum GameGlobal Dilemma:Most participants are spending for growth,yet the industry does not grow.Slow g

24、rowth&excess capacity suggest deflation/revenue pressures are likely to continue.Not everybody can be a winner.Winners will be low cost producers who deliver a good product that consumers are willing to pay for.Modest Demand GrowthDemand growth is likely to be modest despite economic recovery:Auto s

25、ales did not weaken materially in the most recent recession and thus,significant pent-up demand was never created.The number of off-lease vehicles is falling sharply fewer consumers are being forced back to a dealer to buy or lease a new vehicle.Extended financing terms are likely to prolong vehicle

26、 turnover.Economic conditions appear mixed.Light Vehicle Sales Trend Line DemandSource:Morgan Stanley ResearchLight Vehicle Sales Cycle:Trough to TroughSource:R.L.Polk,Global Insight&Morgan Stanley ResearchWeighted Median Age of a Vehicle vs.Sales1 Year Lead Correlation 77.6%Source:Polk&Morgan Stanl

27、ey ResearchOff Lease Vehicles Begin to DeclineSource:Manheim&Morgan Stanley ResearchFewer Consumers Being Forced Back to the DealershipsAverage Maturity of Vehicle Loans(months)Source:Federal Reserve Board&Morgan Stanley ResearchTaking Longer to Establish Consumer EquitySource:FRB&Morgan Stanley Res

28、earchEconomic Conditions Better than they were,but still not robustSource:CPI&Morgan Stanley ResearchPeakTroughNowJan-02Oct-02Nov-03Interest RatesConsumer ConfidenceGasoline PricesUsed Car PricesEmploymentAffordability Near 25 Year BestNumber of Weeks of Income to Purchase a VehicleSource:FRB&Morgan

29、 Stanley ResearchIntense CompetitionCompetitive pressures are likely to remain difficult:Capacity growth to continue in 2004.Pricing is likely to remain difficult although a weak dollar may provide a modest offset.Market share pressures to continue as well.NA Capacity Additions,Despite Flat Sls Outl

30、ookSource:Company data&Morgan Stanley Research20052003FordNissan(122)2503082004FordGM(211)(98)80=100,000 unitsGMFordHondaNissanToyota125(146)18020030Net Increase Of 853,000 Units or Roughly 5.1%of NA sales2006Toyota150389180ToyotaDCXHyundai 2356Excess Capacity&More Is On The WayEvery 1%Pt.of Market

31、Share Translates into$1.0bn in Profits853,000 Units of Added Capacity is 5.1%of NA Capacity,or$5bn in Pretax ProfitsNA Pretax Profit Big ThreeFY03E(in MM)$1,971Source:Morgan Stanley Research EstimatesRevenue Pressures Worst Since 1970sNew Car CPI vs.Domestic Light Vehicle SalesSource:CPI&Morgan Stan

32、ley ResearchY/Y Change in Monthly New Car CPISource:CPI&Morgan Stanley ResearchPrice Reductions Pressure ManufacturersEvery 1%Decline in Prices is Worth-$1.0bn at GM-$850mm at Ford-$550mm at DCXSource:Morgan Stanley ResearchBig Three Market Share Continues to Slide76.0%60.2%61.7%Every 1%Point of Sha

33、re is Worth Roughly$1bn in ProfitSource:Autodata&Morgan Stanley ResearchMarket Share Winners/Losers FY03Source:Autodata&Morgan Stanley ResearchBig Three Share of Sales by Segment:FY-03 vs.FY-02Source:Autodata&Morgan Stanley ResearchUS Dollar per Euro:Jan 03-PresentSource:FactSet&Morgan Stanley Resea

34、rchJapanese Yen vs.U.S.DollarSource:FactSet&Morgan Stanley ResearchYen to US Dollar Price Sensitivity:YTD 03Source:Company Data&Morgan Stanley ResearchNote:*Includes Acura,Infiniti,Lexus Weaker Dollar Could Help a LittleSource:Morgan Stanley ResearchGlobal Operating Margins FY02 Source:Company data&

35、Morgan Stanley Research*Morgan Stanley EstimatesExcluding Pension&OPEB Expense for the Big ThreePorscheNissanBMWHondaToyotaHyundaiGMPeugeotKiaVWDCXRenaultFordFiat16.4%10.6%8.9%8.4%8.1%6.1%5.7%5.0%4.7%4.0%3.8%1.7%1.8%-6.2%Higher Rates Could be a NegativeHigher rates create risk of weaker demand,weake

36、r mix and lower finance company earningsExtended terms suggest longer replacement rates.Every 1%increase in financing rates on 5-year loans is worth$730-750 per vehicle.Auto Finance Terms:Fall 2001 vs.NowSource:FRB&Morgan Stanley ResearchGMAC/FMCC Borrowing CostsSource:FRB&Morgan Stanley ResearchBig

37、 3 Opportunity:Actual Quality is Better than Perceived QualitySource:JD Power,CNW&Morgan Stanley ResearchThe Big Three:Positives&NegativesEach Company Faces Unique Challenges:GM has operational momentum and has made significant strides relative to its fixed legacy costs.Fords share is likely to rema

38、in under pressure.While earnings and cost cutting have been strong,cash flow needs to catch up.DCX continues to struggle with its product line.Quality issues,both perceived(Chrysler)and actual(Mercedes)continue to linger.Big Three Relative Stock Performance:2003Source:FactSet&Morgan Stanley Research

39、General MotorsGM still appears to have a variable cost advantage vs.F&DCX and a fixed cost disadvantage.GMs aggressive funding of pension and healthcare have helped to narrow the fixed cost disadvantage.Significant new product launches give GM its best chance of gaining share/reducing incentives in

40、years.GM is going into 2004 with above average inventory.Finance company earnings are likely to decline due to higher interest rates and lower mortgage refinancing activity.GM Market Share35.5%28.0%28.4%Source:Autodata&Morgan Stanley ResearchU.S.Healthcare&Pension Cost/Unit FY03Source:Company data&M

41、organ Stanley Research$1,134$601$1,159$814$889$740$1,899$902$1074$185$88GM Pension Funded Status:2003 UpdateSource:Company Data&Morgan Stanley ResearchGM Has Built Inventory in 2003Source:Autodata&Morgan Stanley ResearchFinancial Service Earnings Unlikely to Match 2003Source:Company data&Morgan Stan

42、ley ResearchGM New/Replacement/Redesigned ProductsSource:Company Data,Wards Automotive&Morgan Stanley ResearchFord Motor CompanyEarnings have exceeded expectations.Now cash flow needs to catch up.With the exception of the F-Series,new products are limited until year-end,suggesting share pressure is

43、likely to continue.International Operations/Premier Auto Group need to start pulling their weight.Stability in management ranks is important.F Market ShareSource:Autodata&Morgan Stanley Research19.6%19.5%20.2%25.7%F vs.GM Cash FlowSource:Company reports&Morgan Stanley ResearchF Auto Pre-Tax Profit,1

44、999-2004ESource:Company Data&Morgan Stanley ResearchF Geographic Pre-tax Profit:3Q03 vs.3Q02Source:Company reports&Morgan Stanley ResearchF New/Replacement/Redesigned ProductsSource:Company Data,Wards Automotive&Morgan Stanley ResearchF New Product MonitorSource:Autodata&Morgan Stanley ResearchGM/Fo

45、rd Outlook;What They SayGM expects markets to grow around the world and their market share to grow in every region.Ford expects profits to decline in North America.They were not specific but suggest cost issues lingering.GM expects European profits to grow by$300-400mm($500-$700mm pretax)in 2004,whi

46、le Ford expects profits to grow by$900-1,000mm.It is unclear how this profit growth can occur given the difficult market conditions there.DaimlerChryslerProduct line has been playing defense for some time.Offense needs to get on the field.Chrysler faces perceived quality problems.Mercedes has actual

47、 quality problems.Affiliate issues may loom large in 2004.Commercial truck business at DCX could be a positive source of earnings for the company in 2004.DCX Market Share12.2%12.8%13.1%Source:Autodata&Morgan Stanley ResearchDCX Car&Lt.Truck Sales As A%of ParentCarsLight TrucksSource:Autodata&Morgan

48、Stanley ResearchChrysler&DCX Operating MarginsSource:Company reports&Morgan Stanley ResearchDCX New/Replacement/Redesigned ProductsSource:Company Data,Wards Automotive&Morgan Stanley ResearchImplicationsGM will continue to pursue its“grow our way out”strategy.DCX improved cost structure is keeping i

49、t in the game.New product is critical to alleviating revenue pressure.Foreign OEMs are likely to continue to add capacity in NA.Ford likely to be playing defense for one more year.The company needs to hang on and continue to attack their costs until new product arrives.On the bright side,the Big Thr

50、ee product is the best its ever been.Source:Morgan Stanley ResearchSuppliers Relative Stock Performance:2003Source:FactSet&Morgan Stanley ResearchDealers Relative Stock Performance:2003Source:FactSet&Morgan Stanley ResearchExpectations:Year Ago vs.TodaySource:Morgan Stanley ResearchStephen.GirskyMor