Chap通货膨胀与失业之间的短期权衡取舍实用.pptx

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1、失业与通货膨胀失业与通货膨胀Unemployment and Inflationu通货膨胀主要取决于由美联储控制的货币量增长。The inflation rate depends primarily on growth in the quantity of money,controlled by the Fed.u把通货膨胀和失业率加在一起得出了一个遗憾指数，用来衡量经济状况是否正常。The misery index,one measure of the“health”of the economy,adds together the inflation rate and unemploymen

2、t rate.第1页/共43页失业与通货膨胀失业与通货膨胀Unemployment and Inflationu社会面临着通货膨胀和失业之间的短期权衡取舍。Society faces a short-run tradeoff between unemployment and inflation.u如果决策者扩大总需求，则可以减少失业，但这以更高的通货膨胀为代价。If policymakers expand aggregate demand,they can lower unemployment,but only at the cost of higher inflation.u如果决策者紧缩总

3、需求，则可以降低通货膨胀，但这以暂时的高失业作为代价。If they contract aggregate demand,they can lower inflation,but at the cost of temporarily higher unemployment.第2页/共43页菲利普斯曲线菲利普斯曲线The Phillips Curve菲利普斯曲线描述了通货膨胀与失业之间的短期关系。The Phillips curve illustrates the short-run relationship between inflation and unemployment.第3页/共43页

4、菲利普斯曲线菲利普斯曲线The Phillips Curve.失业率失业率（百分比）（百分比）0通货膨胀率通货膨胀率(年百分比年百分比)4B6A72菲利普斯曲线菲利普斯曲线第4页/共43页总需求、总供给与菲利普斯曲线总需求、总供给与菲利普斯曲线Aggregate Demand,Aggregate Supply,and the Phillips Curveu菲利普斯曲线简单地说明了，短期中出现的通货膨胀与失业的结合是由于总需求曲线的移动使经济沿着短期总供给曲线变动。The Phillips curve shows the short-run combinations of unemploymen

5、t and inflation that arise as shifts in the aggregate demand curve move the economy along the short-run aggregate supply curve.第5页/共43页总需求、总供给与菲利普斯曲线总需求、总供给与菲利普斯曲线Aggregate Demand,Aggregate Supply,and the Phillips Curveu产品与劳务的总需求越大，经济产量越多，总物价水平就越高。The greater the aggregate demand for goods and servi

6、ces,the greater is the economys output,and the higher is the overall price level.u较高的产量水平意味着较低的失业水平。A higher level of output results in a lower level of unemployment.第6页/共43页菲利普斯曲线如何和总需求与总供给模型相关菲利普斯曲线如何和总需求与总供给模型相关How the Phillips Curve is Related to the Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Suppl

7、y.Phillips curve0(b)菲利普斯曲线菲利普斯曲线通货膨胀率通货膨胀率(年百分比年百分比)失业率失业率(百分比百分比)0(a)总需求与总供给模型总需求与总供给模型物价水平物价水平低总需求高总需求B46(产量是产量是 8,000)A72(产量是产量是7,500)A7,500102(失业率失业率 7%)B8,000106(失业率失业率47%)短期总供给第7页/共43页菲利普斯曲线的移动：预期的作用菲利普斯曲线的移动：预期的作用Shifts in the Phillips Curve:The Role of Expectations菲利普斯曲线看来给决策者提供了一个可能的通货膨胀与失业

8、结果的菜单。The Phillips curve seems to offer policymakers a menu of possible inflation and unemployment outcomes.第8页/共43页长期菲利普斯曲线长期菲利普斯曲线The Long-Run Phillips Curveu60年代，弗里德曼菲尔普斯提出，在长期中，通货膨胀与失业是不相关的。In the 1960s,Friedman and Phelps concluded that inflation and unemployment are unrelated in the long run.u

9、因此，长期菲利普斯曲线是在自然失业率的水平下的一条垂线。As a result,the long-run Phillips curve is vertical at the natural rate of unemployment.u货币政策在短期内有效，但在长期中是无效的。Monetary policy could be effective in the short run but not in the long run.第9页/共43页长期菲利普斯曲线长期菲利普斯曲线The Long-Run Phillips CurveUnemployment Rate0自然失业率自然失业率Inflati

10、on RateLong-run Phillips curveBHigh inflation 1.当美联储提高货币供给的增长率时，通货膨胀率上升2.但长期中失业仍维持在其自然率水平。ALow inflation 第10页/共43页自然失业率长期菲利普斯曲线长期菲利普斯曲线0(b)菲利普斯曲线菲利普斯曲线Inflation RateA自然产量率0P1总需求总需求,AD1 长期总供给长期总供给(a)总需求与总供给模型总需求与总供给模型 Price Level4.但产量与失业仍维持其自然率水平长期菲利普斯曲线如何和总需求与总供给模型相关长期菲利普斯曲线如何和总需求与总供给模型相关How the Phi

11、llips Curve is Related to the Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply.P22.物价水平上升Quantity of OutputUnemploy-ment Rate 1.货币供给增加提高了总需求AD2B3.通货膨胀率也上升第11页/共43页预期与短期菲利普斯曲线预期与短期菲利普斯曲线Expectations and the Short-Run Phillips Curve预期通货膨胀衡量人们预期物价总水平的变动幅度。Expected inflation measures how much people expec

12、t the overall price level to change.第12页/共43页预期与短期菲利普斯曲线预期与短期菲利普斯曲线Expectations and the Short-Run Phillips Curveu在长期中，预期的通货膨胀根据实际通货膨胀做调整。In the long run,expected inflation adjusts to changes in actual inflation.u美联储预期到的通货膨胀的能力只在短期中存在。The Feds ability to create unexpected inflation exists only in the

13、 short run.u一旦人们预期到通货膨胀，使失业低于自然失业率的唯一办法是让实际通货膨胀高于预期通货膨胀率。Once people anticipate inflation,the only way to get unemployment below the natural rate is for actual inflation to be above the anticipated rate.第13页/共43页预期与短期菲利普斯曲线预期与短期菲利普斯曲线Expectations and the Short-Run Phillips Curve失业率失业率=自然失业率自然失业率 实际实

14、际 预期预期通货膨胀通货膨胀 通货膨胀通货膨胀-()a-该等式表明，失业率与自然失业率、实际通货膨该等式表明，失业率与自然失业率、实际通货膨胀、预期通货膨胀相关。胀、预期通货膨胀相关。This equation relates the unemployment rate to the natural rate of unemployment,actual inflation,and expected inflation.第14页/共43页预期的通货膨胀如何使短期菲利普斯曲线移动预期的通货膨胀如何使短期菲利普斯曲线移动How Expected Inflation Shifts the Short

15、-Run Phillips CurveUnemployment Rate0自然失业率自然失业率Inflation RateCB长期菲利普斯曲线A高预期通货膨胀时的短期菲利普斯曲线低预期通货膨胀时的短期菲利普斯曲线1.扩张性政策使经济沿着短期菲利普斯曲线向上移动2.但在长期中，预期的通货膨胀上升，而且短期菲利普斯曲线向右移动.第15页/共43页自然率假说自然率假说The Natural-Rate Hypothesisu无论通货膨胀率如何，失业最终要回到其自然率，这称之为自然率假说。The view that unemployment eventually returns to its natur

16、al rate,regardless of the rate of inflation,is called the natural-rate hypothesis.u历史的观察支持了这种假说。Historical observations support the natural-rate hypothesis.第16页/共43页自然率假说的自然试验自然率假说的自然试验The Natural Experiment for the Natural Rate Hypothesisu70年代初期，稳定的菲利普斯曲线被打破了。The concept of a stable Phillips curve

17、broke down in the in the early 70s.u整个70与80年代，经济同时经历了高通货膨胀与高失业。During the 70s and 80s,the economy experienced high inflation and high unemployment simultaneously.第17页/共43页60年代的菲利普斯曲线年代的菲利普斯曲线The Phillips Curve in the 1960s.Unemployment Rate(percent)Inflation Rate(percent per year)0123456789102468101

18、968196619611962196319671965 1964第18页/共43页菲利普斯曲线的破灭菲利普斯曲线的破灭The Breakdown of the Phillips Curve.Unemployment Rate(percent)Inflation Rate(percent per year)01234567891024681019731971196919701968196619611962196319671965 19641972第19页/共43页Shifts in the Phillips Curve:The Role of Supply ShocksuHistorical e

19、vents have shown that the short-run Phillips curve can shift due to changes in expectations.第20页/共43页菲利普斯曲线的移动：供给冲击的作用菲利普斯曲线的移动：供给冲击的作用Shifts in the Phillips Curve:The Role of Supply Shocksu因为总供给的冲击，短期菲利普斯曲线也会发生移动。The short-run Phillips curve also shifts because of shocks to aggregate supply.u总供给的不利

20、移动恶化了失业与通货膨胀的短期均衡取舍。Major adverse changes in aggregate supply can worsen the short-run tradeoff between unemployment and inflation.u不利的供给冲击使决策者在通货膨胀与失业之间的权衡取舍更加困难。An adverse supply shock gives policymakers a less favorable tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.第21页/共43页菲利普斯曲线的移动：供给冲击的作用菲利普斯曲线的

21、移动：供给冲击的作用Shifts in the Phillips Curve:The Role of Supply Shocksu供给冲击是直接影响企业的生产成本，从而影响他们收取的价格的事件。A supply shock is an event that directly affects firms costs of production and thus the prices they charge.u它使经济的总供给曲线移动。It shifts the economys aggregate supply curve.u因此，也使菲利普斯曲线移动。and as a result,the P

22、hillips curve.第22页/共43页AS21.总供给的不利移动总供给的不利冲击总供给的不利冲击An Adverse Shock to Aggregate SupplyQuantity of Output0Price LevelP1总需求总需求(a)总供给与总需求模型总供给与总需求模型Unemployment Rate0(b)菲利普斯曲线菲利普斯曲线AInflation Rate菲利普斯曲线菲利普斯曲线,PC1 总供给总供给 AS1AY1P23.提高了物价水平B2.降低了产量Y2B4.这给决策者一种失业与通货膨胀之间不利的权衡取舍PC2 第23页/共43页总供给的不利冲击总供给的不利冲

23、击An Adverse Shock to Aggregate Supplyu70年代，当欧佩克削减了产量并提高石油市场价格时，决策者面临两种选择：In the 1970s,policymakers faced two choices when OPEC cut output and raised worldwide prices of petroleum.u通过扩大总需求，促使通货膨胀，来降低失业 Fight the unemployment battle by expanding aggregate demand and accelerate inflation.u通过紧缩总需求，承受更高的

24、失业，来降低通货膨胀。Fight inflation by contracting aggregate demand and endure even higher unemployment.第24页/共43页Inflation Rate(percent per year)UnemploymentRate(percent)01234567891024681070年代的供给冲击年代的供给冲击The Supply Shocks of the 1970s.1972197519811976197819791980197319741977第25页/共43页降低通货膨胀的代价降低通货膨胀的代价The Cos

25、t of Reducing Inflationu为了降低通货膨胀率，美联储实行了紧缩性货币政策。To reduce inflation,the Fed has to pursue contractionary monetary policy.u当美联储放慢货币增长率时，它就紧缩了总需求。When the Fed slows the rate of money growth,it contracts aggregate demand.u这又减少了企业生产的物品与劳务量。This reduces the quantity of goods and services that firms produ

26、ce.u这也导致了失业的增加。This leads to a rise in unemployment.第26页/共43页A高预期通货膨胀时的短期菲利普斯曲线1.紧缩性货币政策使经济沿着短期菲利普斯曲线向下移动。UnemploymentRate0Natural rate ofunemploymentInflationRate长期菲利长期菲利 普斯曲线普斯曲线CB低预期通货膨胀时的短期菲利普斯曲线2.但在长期中，预期的通货膨胀下降，而且短期菲利普斯曲线向左移动。短期与长期中的反通货膨胀政策短期与长期中的反通货膨胀政策Disinflationary Monetary Policy in the S

27、hort Run and the Long Run.第27页/共43页降低通货膨胀的代价降低通货膨胀的代价The Cost of Reducing Inflationu为了降低通货膨胀，一个经济必须忍受一个高失业与低产量的时期。To reduce inflation,an economy must endure a period of high unemployment and low output.u当美联储改善通货膨胀时，经济沿短期菲利普斯曲线向下移动。When the Fed combats inflation,the economy moves down the short-run P

28、hillips curve.u经济经历着更低的通货膨胀，但以更高的失业为代价。The economy experiences lower inflation but at the cost of higher unemployment.第28页/共43页降低通货膨胀的代价降低通货膨胀的代价The Cost of Reducing Inflationu牺牲率时在通货膨胀每下降1的过程中每年失去的产量的百分比数量。The sacrifice ratio is the number of percentage points of annual output that is lost in the p

29、rocess of reducing inflation by one percentage point.u典型的牺牲率估算是5。An estimate of the sacrifice ratio is five.u为了使10的通货膨胀率降低到4，要求每年牺牲30的产量。To reduce inflation from about 10%in 1979-1981 to 4%would have required an estimated sacrifice of 30%of annual output!第29页/共43页理性预期理性预期Rational Expectations 根据理性预期

30、理论，当人们在预期未来时，他们可以最好地应用他们所拥有的全部信息，包括关于政府政策的信息。The theory of rational expectations suggests that people optimally use all the information they have,including information about government policies,when forecasting the future.第30页/共43页理性预期理性预期Rational Expectationsu预期通货膨胀解释了为什么在短期而不是长期中存在着通货膨胀与失业之间的权衡。Ex

31、pected inflation explains why there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment in the short run but not in the long run.u短期权衡取舍消失的速度取决于预期调整的速度。How quickly the short-run tradeoff disappears depends on how quickly expectations adjust.第31页/共43页理性预期理性预期Rational Expectationsu理性预期理论表明，牺牲率可能比估算的要小的多。

32、The theory of rational expectations suggests that the sacrifice-ratio could be much smaller than estimated.第32页/共43页沃尔克的反通货膨胀沃尔克的反通货膨胀The Volcker Disinflationu在70年代保罗.沃尔克作为美联储主席时，通货膨胀已经美国要解决的最重要的问题之一。When Paul Volcker was Fed chairman in the 1970s,inflation was widely viewed as one of the nations fo

33、remost problems.u沃尔克成功的使通货膨胀率从10降低到4，但却以高失业作为代价（1983年大约是10）。Volcker succeeded in reducing inflation(from 10%to 4%),but at the cost of high employment(about 10%in 1983).第33页/共43页UnemploymentRate(percent)Inflation Rate(percent per year)012345678910246810沃尔克的反通货膨胀沃尔克的反通货膨胀The Volcker Disinflation.19791

34、9801983198119821984198619871985ABC第34页/共43页格林斯潘时代格林斯潘时代The Greenspan Erau艾伦.格林斯潘作为美联储出席的时期，开始了有利的供给冲击。Alan Greenspans term as Fed chairman began with a favorable supply shock.u1986年，欧佩克成员国放弃了他们限制供给的协议。In 1986,OPEC members abandoned their agreement to restrict supply.u这使得通过膨胀下降与失业减少。This led to falli

35、ng inflation and falling unemployment.第35页/共43页UnemploymentRate(percent)0123456789100246810Inflation Rate(percent per year)格林斯潘时代格林斯潘时代The Greenspan Era.198419911985199219931986199419881987199519891990第36页/共43页格林斯潘时代格林斯潘时代The Greenspan Erau最近几年的通货膨胀与失业的波动已经变小了，这归功于美联储的行动。Fluctuations in inflation an

36、d unemployment in recent years have been relatively small due to the Feds actions.第37页/共43页总结总结Summaryu菲利普斯曲线描述了通货膨胀和失业之间的负相关关系。The Phillips curve describes a negative relationship between inflation and unemployment.u通过扩大总需求，决策者可以在菲利普曲线上选择较高通货膨胀和较低失业的一点。By expanding aggregate demand,policymakers can

37、 choose a point on the Phillips curve with higher inflation and lower unemployment.u通过紧缩总需求，决策者可以在菲利普斯曲线上选择较低通货膨胀和较高失业的一点。By contracting aggregate demand,policymakers can choose a point on the Phillips curve with lower inflation and higher unemployment.第38页/共43页总结总结Summaryu菲利普斯曲线所描述的通货膨胀与失业之间的权衡取舍只在

38、短期中成立。The tradeoff between inflation and unemployment described by the Phillips curve holds only in the short run.u长期菲利普斯曲线是在自然失业率时的一条垂线。The long-run Phillips curve is vertical at the natural rate of unemployment.第39页/共43页总结总结Summaryu短期菲利普斯曲线也会由于总供给冲击而移动。The short-run Phillips curve also shifts beca

39、use of shocks to aggregate supply.u不利的供给冲击，给决策者一个较为不利的通货膨胀和失业之间的权衡取舍。An adverse supply shock gives policymakers a less favorable tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.第40页/共43页总结总结Summaryu当美联储紧缩货币增长以减少通货膨胀时，它使经济沿着短期菲利普斯曲线移动。When the Fed contracts growth in the money supply to reduce inflation,

40、it moves the economy along the short-run Phillips curve.u这将引起暂时的高失业。This results in temporarily high unemployment.u反通货膨胀的代价取决于通货膨胀预期下降的速度。The cost of disinflation depends on how quickly expectations of inflation fall.第41页/共43页总结总结Summaryu因为货币和财政政策能影响总需求，政府有时使用这些政策工具努力使经济保持稳定。Because monetary and fis

41、cal policy can influence aggregate demand,the government sometimes uses these policy instruments in an attempt to stabilize the economy.u家庭与企业态度的变动将使总需求移动；假如政府不作出相应的反应，将会导致不合意的并且不必要的产量与就业的波动。Changes in attitudes by households and firms shift aggregate demand;if the government does not respond,the result is undesirable and unnecessary fluctuations in output and employment.第42页/共43页感谢您的欣赏！第43页/共43页