ANDINTERNATIONALLINKAGES(跨国公司财务管理-Josefid.pptx

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1、Multinational Financial Management Alan Shapiro7th Edition J.Wiley&SonsPower Points byJoseph F.Greco,Ph.D.California State University,Fullerton1CHAPTER 5THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND INTERNATIONAL LINKAGES2CHAPTER OVERVIEWI.BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT CATEGORIESII.THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS,SERVICES,AND C

2、APITALIII.COPING WITH CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS3PART I.BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIESA.THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS(B-O-P)1.PURPOSE:Measures all financial and economic transactions overa specified period of time.4BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES2.Double-entry bookkeepinga.Currency inflows=creditsearn foreign ex

3、changeb.Currency outflows=debitsexpend foreign exchange5BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES3.Three Major Accounts:a.Currentb.Capitalc.Official Reserves4.Current Accountrecords net flow of goods,services,and unilateral transfers.6BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES5.Capital Accounta.Function:records public and pri

4、vate investment and lending.b.Inflows=creditsc.Outflows=debits7BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES5.Capital Account(cont)d.Transactions classified as1.)portfolio2.)direct3.)short term8BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES6.Official Reserves Accounta.Function:1.)measures changes in international reserves owned by ce

5、ntral banks.2.)reflects surplus/deficit ofa.)current accountb.)capital account9BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES6.Official Reserves Account(cont)b.Reserves consist of 1.)gold2.)convertible securities 10BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES7.Net Effects:a.Sum of all transactions must be zero:1.)current account2.)c

6、apital account3.)official reserves11BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES8.The Balance-of-payment measuresa.Some Definitions:1.)Basic Balancea.)consists of current account and long-term capital flows.12BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES1.)Basic Balance(cont)b.)emphasizes long-term trends.13BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGO

7、RIES1.)Basic Balance(cont)c.)excludes short-term capital flows that heavily depend on temporary factors.14BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES2.)Net Liquidity Balance:measures the change inprivate domestic borrowingor lending require to keep payments equal withoutadjusting official reserves.15BALANCE-OF-PAY

8、MENTCATEGORIES3.)Official Reserve TransactionsBalance-measures adjustmentsneeded by official reserves.16PART II.THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS,SERVICES,AND CAPITALII.LINKS FROM INTERNATIONAL TO DOMESTIC FLOWSA.Global Linkagesset of basic macroeconomic identities which link:domestic spending and pro

9、duction to current and capital accounts17THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS,SERVICES,AND CAPITALB.Domestic Savings and Investmentand the Capital Account1.National Income Accounting a.National Income(NI)is either spent(C)or saved(S)NI=C +S(5.1)18THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS,SERVICES,AND CAPITALb.Nati

10、onal spending(NS)is divided into personal spending(C)and investment(I)NS =C +I (5.2)19THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS,SERVICES,AND CAPITALc.Subtracting(4.2)-(4.1)NI-NS =S -I(5.3)If NI NS,S I which impliesthat surplus capital spent overseas.20THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS,SERVICES,AND CAPITALd.In a

11、 freely-floating system,excess saving=the capital account balancee.Implications:1.A nation which produces more than it spends will save more than it invests domestically with a net capital outflow producing a capital account deficit.21THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS,SERVICES,AND CAPITAL2.A nation wh

12、ich spends more than it produces has a net capital inflow producing a capital account surplus.3.A healthy economy will tend torun a current account deficit.22THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS,SERVICES,AND CAPITALC.THE LINK BETWEEN THE CURRENT AND CAPITAL ACCOUNTS1.Beginning identityNI-NS=X-M(5.4)where

13、 X =exports M=importsX-M=current account balance(CA)23THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS,SERVICES,AND CAPITAL2.Combining(5.3)+(5.4)S -I =X -M(5.5)3.If S-I=Net Foreign Investment (NFI)NFI =X -M(5.6)24THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS,SERVICES,AND CAPITAL4.Implications:a.If CA is in surplus,the nation must

14、 be a net exporter of capital.b.If CA is a deficit,the nation is a major capital importer.c.When NS NI,the excess must be acquired through foreign trade.25THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS,SERVICES,AND CAPITALd.Solutions for Improving CA deficits:1.)Raise national income(output)relative to domestic in

15、vestment(I).2.)Increase(S)relative to domestic investment(I).26THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS,SERVICES,AND CAPITALD.GOVERNMENT BUDGETS ANDCURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS1.CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CA=Saving Surplus-Govt budget deficit27THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS,SERVICES,AND CAPITAL2.CA Deficit means t

16、he nation is not saving enough to finance(I)and the deficit.3.CA Surplus means the nation is saving more than needed to finance its(I)and deficit.28PART III.COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITI.POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS UNLIKELY TOWORK:A.Currency DepreciationB.Protectionism29COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACC

17、OUNT DEFICITII.CURRENCY DEPRECIATIONA.U.S.Experience:Does not improve the trade deficit.30COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITB.Depreciations are ineffective because1.It takes time to affect trade.2.J-Curve Effectstates that a decline in currency value will initially worsen the deficit before imp

18、rovement.31THE J-CURVETIMENet changein trade balance0Currency depreciationTrade balance initially deterioratesTrade balanceimproves32COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITIII.PROTECTIONISMA.Trade Barriers used:1.Tariffs2.QuotasB.Results:Most likely will reduce bothX and M.33COPING WITH THE CURRENT

19、ACCOUNT DEFICITC.FOREIGN OWNERSHIPone protectionist solution would place limits on or eliminate foreign ownership leading to capital inflows.34COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITD.STIMULATE NATIONAL SAVINGchange the tax regulations and rates.35COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITIII.SUMMARY:CURRENT-ACCOUNTDEFICITS-neither bad nor good inherently1.Since one countrys exports are anothers imports,it is not possible for all to run a surplus36COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT2.Deficits may be a solution to the problem of different national propensities to save and invest.37演讲完毕，谢谢观看！