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1、STRATEGY AND THE INTERNET:TRENDS AND PREDICTIONSReal Tech ConferencePeter Stanger-1-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmE-COMMERCE IS DEAD“E-Commerce Is Dead,Long Live E-Commerce”-The Industry Standard,April 2000“Going,Going,Gone:Business-to-Consumer Sector Goes Bust”-F,April 2000“Can you build a brand on

2、line selling third-party goods?The answer is no,even though everyone used to think the answer was yes”-Bryan Rutbert,Warburg Dillon Read“The living dead have gotten away with murder because the public markets have funded riskier ventures.Look at A-if could be the biggest living dead the public marke

3、ts have ever seen.”-Warren Packard,Draper Fisher Jurvetson-2-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmTOM SIEBELCEO,Siebel Systems“If you cant generate profits,significant market share and customer satisfaction,you re out of business.”“On the B2B exchange side,I dont think anyone will survive.They are all gone

4、.”-3-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmTHE CAPITAL MARKETS HAD IT ALL WRONGTravelocityBExpediaDEPricelineeBayAmazon$123BWebvaneBayAmazonAll Other$11.4B-4-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmIS THE REVOLUTION OVER?July 28,1794-5-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmTHE BUMPY RIDE OF ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS1860-18901895-

5、1925-6-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmFUNDAMENTAL FORCES ARE AT WORK120100804060200177017801775IndexWorkers per bushel of manufactured cottonEngland 1770-83Price of the Model T touring car1908-20191019151920198519901995Price of CPUcomputing power$/MIPS 1982-95Lower processing costs.with increased thr

6、oughput.Fiber capacityTime1050104103102 and powerful network economics0 20 40 60 80 100 012345678910nValue increases as the square of connectionsProfitLossValueCost02v6v12v20v30v42v56v72v90vn(n-1)vF+0F+2cF+3cF+4cF+5cF+6cF+7cF+8cF+9cF+10cF+ncValue,costConnectionsCost increases linearly with connectio

7、ns lower storage costs.$/MBAverageHD sizein PC atretail(GB)Harddrivesize(GB)Cost($/MB)-7-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmLONG DISTANCE Wholesale(Network)Design/buildOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnectionRetailSales/marketingAccount managementBillingRetailSales/marketingAccount managementBillingN

8、etworkDesign/buildOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnectionRetailRetailNetwork intelligenceValue added servicesWholesale service creationNetwork intelligenceValue added servicesNetwork management/dispatchWholesalePHARMACEUTICALSResearchDevelopmentTrialsRegistrationManufac-turingSales&marketingInc

9、reased development costsRole of blockbusters increasingQuality outsourcers availableEasier coordination1980s1990sResearchDevelopmentTrialsRegistrationManufac-turingSales&marketingAcademic labsBiotech firmsContract research organizationsContractmfrsPBMsJVs/licensingELECTRIC UTILITIESCOMPUTER INDUSTRY

10、AT&T,MCI and Sprint fragmented radicallyMicroprocessors,integrated circuits,memory chipsComputersOperating systemsApplications softwareMarketing,sales,and distributionCommon standardsTime based competition1995IntelMotorolaAMDCyrixCompaqDellApplePackard BellIBMDOS and WindowsUNIXMac OSOS/2Microsoft O

11、fficeWordPerfectOthersRetailSuperstoresOn-lineMail orderNeXtIBM,Digital1997PrimaryfuelPowergenerationTradingDistributionBackward integration to reduce riskForward integration to open supply channelsScale through focusing on huge power plantsSynergy through bundling capabilities of general trading an

12、d energy businessNew services for the customerRuhrkohleMobilBPShellNational Power(UK)Electrobel(Belgium)RWE(Germany)Norsk Kraftmegling(Norway)EnronUnited Utilities(UK)South-ernWaterEastern Elect-ricity(UK)Stadt-werkeMunch-en(Ger-many)1990199519851990Statkraft(Norway)Oslo Energi(Norway)EVO(Germany)IV

13、O(Finland)MANY INDUSTRIES EXPERIENCING A REDEFINITION OF COMPETITIVE BOUNDARIES-8-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmMASSIVE REDISTRIBUTION OF THE MARGIN POOL IS OCCURINGDigital Photography Example CameraFilmEquipmentPaper,chemicalsPhoto-finisherReprint/enlargeStore/display Share with othersProcessingAna

14、log value chain Kodak and Fuji dominateMajor players(2000 U.S.market share)CanonNikonOlympusMinoltaKodakFujiKodak(66%)FujiKodak(Qualex)(40%)FujiPhotohutsAlbum manufacturersFrame manufacturersMail servicesdisposablesCameraManipulationCropAlter pixelsPrinterPaper,inkReprint/enlargeStore/displayShare w

15、ith othersProcessing(at home)Digital value chain HP,Sony and others well-positionedMajor players(2000 U.S.market share)Sony(35%)HP(19%)Olympus(13%)Kodak(12%)HP(70%)LexmarkEpsonHPLexmarkEpsonKodakPCIBM microdriveSonyCompact FlashE-mail postingPersonal Web siteZingShutterflySnapfishOfotoOthersAdobe(Ph

16、otoshop)Standard with camera and available free online-9-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmEXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN ONLINE RETAILING CONTINUES65.117.8Source:The State of Online Retailing 2.0,3.0 and 4.0,Shop.org surveys conducted by The Boston Consulting Group;SEC filings;Media Metrix and Harris Interactive

17、data;industry association reports;analyst reportsNote:Excludes financial brokerage11.515.2North American Business-to-Consumer Revenues($B)20.6+132%+66%+46%26.744.5Online channel 10%share in several categories-10-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmCATALOGUERS ARE WINNING EBIT Margin in%of Revenues19992000

18、Source:The State of Online Retailing 2.0,3.0,4.0;Shop.org Surveys conducted by The Boston Consulting Group-11-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmADVANTAGE INCUMBENTSOnline RetailingDsMarketplacesCLECsCataloguersGE,Big 3ILECs/IXCsB2BTelecom-12-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmRENAISSANCE OF THE FUNDAMENTALSI

19、PO valueCash flowGrowth=valueProfitable growth=valueCustomer acquisitionSegmentationInternet timeCompetitive advantage-13-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmTHE VAST MAJORITY OF CHANGE AND TRANSFORMATION LIES AHEADIllustrative view of transforming forces,Circa 2010Technology)GlobalizationDeregulationElec

20、troniccommerceSource:BCG analysisDeregulationandglobalizationindex(1999=100)Technology andelectroniccommerce index(1999=100)-14-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmA PERSPECTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE:LEVERAGE YOUR ASSETS!Asset turns(sales/assets)Cash flow margin in%of sales(%)RetailConstruction

21、MachineryAutomobileChemicalsUtilitiesReal EstateAirlineAuto partsAerospaceTelecomSource:BCG Analysis-15-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lmA PERSPECTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE:LEVERAGE YOUR ASSETS!AccessFibreWirelessSatelliteAsset productivity focuse-Procuremente-SalesMargin focusOpportunity SpaceSource:BCG Analysis