资产负债率负债总计izzh.pptx

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1、SJTUProject Evaluation-The 5th LectureDr.Hu HaoShanghai Jiao Tong UniversitySJTUAgendaqReview(10)qS1:Case study 1 Economic analysis of an industrial project(30)Project Social Evaluation(20)q1st Break(2:00-2:10 pm)qS2:Case study 2 Social Evaluation of a paper factory(10)National Economical Evaluation

2、(50)q2nd Break(3:10-3:20pm)qS3:Case study 3 A Highway Project(15)Value Engineering(30)SJTUEconomical Evaluation National Economical Evaluation Social Evaluation Project Evaluation+SJTUSession 1Case study 1 Economic analysis of an industrial projectSJTUSeveral Economical Indicatorsq资产负债率资产负债率=负债总计负债总

3、计/资产总计资产总计q流动比率流动比率=流动资产总额流动资产总额/流动负债总额流动负债总额q速动比率速动比率 =（流动资产总额（流动资产总额-存货）存货）/流动负债总流动负债总额额SJTUFour Objectives of the Macro economyq充分就业充分就业q物价稳定物价稳定q经济增长经济增长q国际收支平衡国际收支平衡SJTU社会综合评价社会综合评价q根据国家的基本目标，在项目选择上把根据国家的基本目标，在项目选择上把效益目标、公平目标、环境目标和其他效益目标、公平目标、环境目标和其他影响社会发展的因素通盘考虑，对项目影响社会发展的因素通盘考虑，对项目进行多因素、多目标的综

4、合分析评价，进行多因素、多目标的综合分析评价，从而选出并实施那些有助于实现国家最从而选出并实施那些有助于实现国家最终目标的项目终目标的项目.SJTU项目社会综合评价系统的构成项目社会综合评价系统的构成qHall 三维结构法三维结构法逻辑维与项目评价明确评价目的、范围、费用、效益、预测社会经济情况时间维和项目评价历史的综合描述，现状的系统分析和对未来的科学预测专业维和项目评价项目评价与各专业技术有着密切联系SJTU项目社会综合评价项目社会综合评价一般工作程序一般工作程序q确定目标确定目标q确定评价范围确定评价范围q确定评价指标和标准确定评价指标和标准q确定指标的权重确定指标的权重q确定社会评价判

5、据确定社会评价判据q社会综合评价社会综合评价SJTU项目社会模糊综合评价法项目社会模糊综合评价法q评价方法评价方法确定评价因素集U确定评语集V建立评价因素集U与评语集V之间的模糊关系的单因素评价矩阵R评价因素Ui对评语集内元素Vj的隶属度为Rij确定权重A模糊综合评价B=A*R模糊综合评价指标的处理SJTU案例分析q某纸浆厂项目社会综合评价某纸浆厂项目社会综合评价SJTUSession 2Evaluation Projects with the Benefit/Cost Ratio Method项目的费用项目的费用-效益评估效益评估SJTUEconomical,National Economi

6、cal and Social EvaluationsqProject EvaluationEconomical EvaluationNational Economical EvaluationSocial Evaluationq财务评价财务评价项目的盈利能力、清偿能力以及外汇平衡等财务状况判定项目的财务可行性SJTUEconomical,National Economical and Social Evaluationsq国民经济评价国民经济评价按照资源合理配置的原则，从国家整体角度考察项目的效益和费用，通过计算项目对国民经济的净贡献，评价项目的经济合理性。q社会评价社会评价重大工程项目和公共

7、事业项目还需考虑其他社会政治目标，如地区或阶层间的利益分配、就业、环境改进和社会安定等。q费用费用-效益分析效益分析是进行国民经济和社会评是进行国民经济和社会评价的有效办法之一价的有效办法之一SJTU财务评价与国民经济评价的财务评价与国民经济评价的区别区别-三个例子三个例子q例一：节能水泵例一：节能水泵q例二：化工溶剂厂例二：化工溶剂厂q例三：新建城市道路例三：新建城市道路SJTU财务评价与国民经济评价的财务评价与国民经济评价的区别区别q价格价格“失真失真”q存在外部效果存在外部效果没有在项目的财务收益或支出中包括进去的那些效益和费用q存在不可计量的效果存在不可计量的效果SJTU影子价格影子价

8、格q价格失真价格失真影子价格影子工资影子汇率统一的社会折现率q影子价格影子价格影子价格是从国家角度出发，更能反映资源价值的合理价格SJTU外部效果外部效果q项目的产出或投入并未全部地计入工程项目的产出或投入并未全部地计入工程项目的收益或支出中去，通常这类效益项目的收益或支出中去，通常这类效益或费用统称为外部效果。或费用统称为外部效果。q外部效果的几种情况外部效果的几种情况由“价格失真”造成的外部效果由于价格的合理升降造成的外部效果技术性外部效果相邻部门效果SJTU无形效果无形效果q无形效果无形效果难以用货币进行度量的效益难以用货币进行度量的效益和费用和费用q处理方法处理方法首先计算实物指标设法

9、估计各种实物指标的货币价值如：对消费者进行询问参照公共设施以外类似物品的市场价格用公共工程的费用来反映效益SJTU公共项目方案评选公共项目方案评选q案例：某高速公路项目案例：某高速公路项目SJTUDifficulties Inherent in Project Evaluation of Public WorksqThere is no profit standard to be used as a measure of financial effectiveness.qThere is no easy-to-quantify money measures of many of the ben

10、efits provided by a public project.qThere frequently is little or no direct connection between the project and the public,who are the ownersqWhenever public funds are used,there is likely to be political influenceSJTUDifficulties Inherent in Project Evaluation of Public Works(2)qThe usual profit mot

11、ive as a stimulus to effective operation is absentqPublic works usually are more circumscribed by legal restrictions than private companiesqThe correct interest rate to be sued for discounting benefits and costs of public projects is often controversial and politically sensitive.SJTUThe B/C Ratio Me

12、thodqThe B/C RatioIs defined as the ratio of the equivalent worth of benefits to the equivalent worth of costsThe equivalent worth utilized is customarily AW or PW,or FWThe interest rate used for public projectsPrivate sector:the rate leads to the profit maximization or cost minimizationPublic secto

13、r:the rate should lead to a maximization of social benefits SJTUCalculation of B/C Ratioq1.Conventional B/C RatioB/C=AW(benefits of the proposed project)/AW(total costs of the proposed project)=B/(CR+O&M)q2.Modified B/C RatioB/C=(B-O&M)/CRB is annual worth of benefits of the proposed projectCR is ca

14、pital recovery costO&M is equivalent annual operating and maintenance expenseSJTUCalculation of B/C Ratioq1.Conventional B/C RatioB/C=PW(benefits of the proposed project)/PW(total costs of the proposed project)=PW(B)/I+PW(O&M)q2.Modified B/C RatioB/C=PW(B)-PW(O&M)/IqA project is acceptable if B/C ra

15、tios are greater than or equal to 1.0SJTUEvaluating Independent Projects by B/C RatiosqIn general,independent projects are deemed worthwhile investments if their B/C ratios are=1.0 qCertain types of items(e.g.,salvage value)can be looked as added benefits rather than as reduced costspp.512-513 Examp

16、le 14-1SJTUComparison of Mutually Exclusive AlternativesqThe incremental B/C ratio method is used when several mutually exclusive alternatives are being consideredqThe objective is to find the alternative with the maximum profit potential,which is not necessarily the alternative having the largest o

17、verall B/C ratio.SJTUComparison of Mutually Exclusive AlternativesqProceduresThe alternatives are first ranked in order of increasing total equivalent worth of costsStarting with the lowest equivalent cost alternative,which is compared with the next higher equivalent cost alternativeIf B/C=1,moving

18、the next one;otherwise the current lower equivalent cost alternative is selectedSJTUSession 3Value Engineering价值工程价值工程SJTU价值工程的产生和发展价值工程的产生和发展q1947年起源于美国年起源于美国q“石棉事件石棉事件”通用电气公司的L.D.Miles石棉板由一种不易燃烧的纸替换总结出“价值分析”（VA)：在保证同样功能的前提下降低成本的比较完整的科学方法q日本的贡献日本的贡献VE 1955年传到日本，与质量管理和工业管理工程相结合SJTU价值价值qValue=Functio

19、n/CostqOr V=F/Cq提高价值的方法：提高价值的方法：F不变，降低CC不变，提高FC增加一些，F有很大的提高C降低，F提高SJTU价值工程价值工程q定义定义价值工程的总目标是以最低的总费用，使产品或作业具有必备的功能价值工程的核心是对产品或作业进行功能分析价值工程是一种有组织有领导的活动SJTU三个阶段与七个步骤q三个阶段三个阶段分析问题综合研究方案评价q七个步七个步骤对象的选择目标的选定搜集情报功能分析方案评价和选择试验和提案活动成果的评价SJTU情报资料的收集情报资料的收集 q情报的种类情报的种类用户要求方面的情报销售方面的情报科学技术方面的情报制造和供应方面的情报成本方面的情报

20、政府和社会有关部门法规、条例等方面的情报SJTU功能分析、整理和评价功能分析、整理和评价q功能分析的四个方面功能分析的四个方面基本功能辅助功能使用功能外观功能q功能整理功能整理q功能评价功能评价“01”评分法“04”评分法定量评分法SJTU功能的选定功能的选定 qABC分析法分析法q价值系数判别法价值系数判别法成本系数=零件成本/总成本价值系数=功能评价系数/成本系数价值系数=1，1q最合适区域法最合适区域法SJTU方案的评价和选择方案的评价和选择 q提出改进的方案提出改进的方案头脑风暴法哥顿法台尔菲法q两种方案评价两种方案评价概略评价详细评价q方案评价的方法方案评价的方法评分法功能加权法SJTUq试验与提案试验与提案q活动成果的评价与总结活动成果的评价与总结企业经济成果的评价包括若干技术、经济指标方案实施的社会效果评价总结