现代物流与供应链管理 (13).ppt

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1、Chapter 8 Performance Evaluationof Logistics and Supply Chain 8.1 Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)8.2 SCOR8.3 Balanced ScorecardContents8.1.1 Concept and basic principle8.1.2 Process of AHP modeling8.1.3 Characteristics and Application of AHP Method8.1 Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)8.1.1 Concept and

2、 basic principleStatement of problemExample 1 Example 1 Go to Guilin,Xian or Chongqing?People will choose where to go based on factors such as travel expenses,food and accommodation expenses,and travel time.Example 2Example 2College students will look for a job in universities,research institutes,or

3、 companies,etc.based on the following factors:Salary and welfare,working environment,promotion space and so on.8.1.1 Concept and basic principleAnalytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)was proposed by Saaty in the mid-1970s.It is a systematic and hierarchical analytical method combining qualitative and quanti

4、tative analysis.Because of its practicability and effectiveness in dealing with complex decision-making problems,it has been applied all over the world.It has been widely used in the fields of economy,energy,behavioral science,military,transportation,agriculture,education,medical and environmental.A

5、HP:Multi-objective decision method8.1.1 Concept and basic principleAHP architecture for example 1.Each travel destination is comprehensively analyzed and sorted to make the final decision.Travel placeTravel placetravel travel expensesexpensesaccommodation accommodation expensesexpensestravel timetra

6、vel timefoodfoodGuilinGuilinXianXianChongqingChongqing8.1.1 Concept and basic principleBasic principles of AHPSystemSystemThe basic idea of AHP is to decompose complex problem into several levels.On the bottom level,the weight of each factor is obtained through pairwise comparison.Through the analys

7、is and calculation from the lower level to higher level,a decision is finally made with the maximum score.ElementElementLevelLevelMatrixMatrixWeightWeight8.1.2 Process of AHP modeling1.Establish a hierarchy structure model.2.Compare the elements of each layer pair by pair to construct a judgment mat

8、rix.3.Solve the eigenvector of the judgment matrix and test the consistency of the judgment matrix.4.After the consistency test is passed,determine the weighted value of each layer sort(Hierarchical single sort).If it fails,the judgment matrix needs to be re-adjusted.5.Get the total ranking of level

9、s.Basic steps of AHP method8.1.2 Process of AHP modeling1.Establish a hierarchy model1.Establish a hierarchy modelIt is usually divided into three layers.The top layer is the target layer,the middle layer is the criterion or indicator layer,and the bottom layer is the scheme layer.AB1B1BnBnB3B3B2B2C

10、1C1C2C2CmCmTarget layer ATarget layer ACriterion layer BCriterion layer BScheme layer CScheme layer C8.1.2 Process of AHP modelingHierarchy model of example 1 Travel placeTravel placetravel travel expensesexpensesaccommodation accommodation expensesexpensestravel timetravel timefoodfoodGuilinGuilinX

11、ianXianChongqingChongqingTarget layer ATarget layer ACriterion layer BCriterion layer BScheme layer CScheme layer C8.1.2 Process of AHP modelingHierarchy model of example 2 Target layer ATarget layer ACriterion layer BCriterion layer BScheme layer CScheme layer CTarget companyTarget companySalarySal

12、aryenvironmentenvironmentprospectprospectCompany 1Company 1Company 2Company 2Company 3Company 3work placework place8.1.2 Process of AHP modeling2.Construct a judgment matrix When determining the weight between various factors at various levels,if it is only qualitative,it is often not easy to be acc

13、epted by people,so Stany et al.proposed the consistent matrix method.1.Do not compare all factors together,but compare each other.2.Use relative scales to reduce the difficulty of comparing factors with different properties as much as possible to improve accuracy.8.1.2 Process of AHP modeling2.Const

14、ruct a judgment matrix Use a to represent the comparison result of factor i relative to factor j：A is called the pairwise comparison matrix.A is called the pairwise comparison matrix.8.1.2 Process of AHP modelingCompare each element in the judgment matrix-scaleThe scale method of 1-9 is used.This sc

15、ale method is suitable for making judgment and easy to master.It has obviously effect on multi-objective decision-making problems that do not require high accuracy in application.8.1.2 Process of AHP modelingCompare each element in the judgment matrix-scaleScaleScaleMeaningMeaning1 1Element A is abs

16、olutely not as important as element BElement A is absolutely not as important as element B3 3Element A is obviously not as important as element BElement A is obviously not as important as element B5 5Element A is as important as element BElement A is as important as element B7 7Element A is obviousl

17、y more important than element BElement A is obviously more important than element B9 9Element A is absolutely important to element BElement A is absolutely important to element B2,4,6,82,4,6,8 The median of the above adjacent judgments The median of the above adjacent judgments8.1.2 Process of AHP m

18、odeling2.Construct a judgment matrix According to the above definition,the pairwise comparison matrix has the following properties.A is called the reciprocal matrix.A is called the reciprocal matrix.Meet the following properties,8.1.2 Process of AHP modeling2.Construct a judgment matrix In Example 1

19、,the pairwise comparison results of the influence of each factor of criterion level B on target level A are as follows:travel expensestravel expensesfoodfoodtravel timetravel timeaccommodation expensesaccommodation expensesTravel placeTravel placeB1B2B3B4B1B2B3B4A pairwise A pairwise comparison matr

20、ixcomparison matrixA pairwise A pairwise reciprocal matrixreciprocal matrix8.1.2 Process of AHP modeling2.Construct a judgment matrix travel expensestravel expensesfoodfoodtravel timetravel timeaccommodation expensesaccommodation expensesTravel placeTravel placeB1B2B3B4B1B2B3B4A pairwise A pairwise

21、comparison matrixcomparison matrixA pairwise A pairwise reciprocal matrixreciprocal matrixQuestion:After comparing each factor in pairs,how can we know the ranking result of the lower and uppermost influence?8.1.2 Process of AHP modeling3.Assessment of hierarchical single and consistency test The pr

22、ocess of determining the degree of influence of various factors at the lower level on a certain factor at the upper level is represented by the weight.Suppose ,then has the following properties:In the reciprocal matrix,if the above is satisfied,it is called the consistency matrix.8.1.2 Process of AH

23、P modeling3.Assessment of hierarchical single and consistency testFind the corresponding eigenvector W of the matrix A.Sum-product Sum-product methodmethodSquare root Square root methodmethodMethod of calculating weight8.1.2 Process of AHP modeling3.Assessment of hierarchical single and consistency

24、testDefine the consistency index CI1.CI=0,have complete consistency.2.CI is close to 0,with satisfactory consistency.3.The larger the CI,the more serious the inconsistency.8.1.2 Process of AHP modeling3.Assessment of hierarchical single and consistency testTo measure the size of CI,the random consis

25、tency index RI is introduced.Determine the consistency ratio CR according to the 3-9 level RI value table.1.The smaller the CR,the better and the higher the consistency.2.CR0.1,can be considered as consistent pass,otherwise,need to reconstruct the pair comparison matrix A and adjust .8.1.2 Process o

26、f AHP modeling4.Assessment of hierarchical total ranks and consistency testThe single order of layer B to layer A is b1,b2,b3 bn.The level order of C layer to Bj of B layer is c1j,c2j,c3jcmj.Level B total ranking:C1Cm8.1.2 Process of AHP modeling4.Assessment of hierarchical total ranks and consistency testSuppose that layer C checks CIj and RIj for the hierarchical single ordering of element Bj in layer B,and obtains the consistency ratio of the total order of levels as CR.When CRC3C2 So,option C1.