国外组织行为学课件皮尔森ch11btfu.pptx

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1、Chapter 11/Slide 1Chapter 11Decision MakingCopyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 2Learning Objectives1.Define decision making and differentiate well-structured and ill-structured problems.2.Compare and contrast perfectly rational decision making with decision making under bounded ration

2、ality.3.Discuss the impact of framing and cognitive biases on the decision process.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 3Learning Objectives4.Explain the process of escalation of commitment to an apparently failing course of action.5.Consider how emotions and mood affect decision makin

3、g.6.Summarize the pros and cons of using groups to make decisions,with attention to the groupthink phenomenon and risk assessment.7.Discuss techniques for improving organizational decision making.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 4What Is Decision Making?Decision making is the proce

4、ss of developing a commitment to some course of action.Three things are noteworthy about decision making:It involves making a choice among several action alternatives.It is a process.It involves a commitment of resources.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 5What Is Decision Making?(co

5、ntinued)Decision making can also be described as a process of problem solving.A problem exists when a gap is perceived between some existing state and some desired state.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 6Well-Structured ProblemsA problem for which the existing state is clear,the de

6、sired state is clear,and how to get from one state to another is fairly obvious.These problems are simple,and their solutions arouse little controversy.They are repetitive and familiar and they can be programmed.A program is a standardized way of solving a problem.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.C

7、hapter 11/Slide 7Well-Structured Problems(continued)Programs short-circuit the decision-making process by enabling the decision maker to go directly from problem identification to solution.They are also known as rules,routines,standard operating procedures,or rules of thumb.They provide a useful mea

8、ns of solving well structured problems.Programs are only as good as the decision-making process that led to the adoption of the program in the first place.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 8Ill-Structured ProblemA problem for which the existing and desired states are unclear and the

9、 method of getting to the desired state is unknown.Unique and unusual problems that have not been encountered before.They tend to be complex and involve a high degree of uncertainty.They frequently arouse controversy and conflict.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 9Ill-Structured Pro

10、blem(continued)They cannot be solved with programmed decisions.Decision makers must resort to non-programmed decision making.They can entail high risk and stimulate strong political considerations.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 10The Compleat Decision Maker A Rational Decision-Ma

11、king ModelA rational decision maker might use a model that involves a sequence of steps that are followed when making a decision.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 11The Rational Decision Making ProcessCopyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 12Perfect RationalityPerfect ra

12、tionality is a decision strategy that is completely informed,perfectly logical,and oriented toward economic gain.The prototype for perfect rationality is the Economic Person who is the perfect,cool,calculating decision maker.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 13Perfect Rationality(co

13、ntinued)Economic Person characteristics:can gather information without cost and is completely informed;is perfectly logical;andonly criterion for decision making is economic gain.These perfectly rational characteristics do not exist in real decision makers.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 1

14、1/Slide 14Bounded RationalityHerbert Simon recognized that the rational characteristics of Economic Person do not exist in real decision makers.He suggested that managers use bounded rationality.Bounded rationality is a decision strategy that relies on limited information and that reflects time cons

15、traints and political considerations.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 15Bounded Rationality(continued)Framing and cognitive biases illustrate the operation of bounded rationality,as does the impact of emotions and mood on decisions.Framing refers to the aspects of the presentation

16、of information about a problem that are assumed by decision makers.How problems and decision alternatives are framed can have a powerful impact on resulting decisions.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 16Cognitive BiasesCognitive biases are tendencies to acquire and process informati

17、on in a particular way that is prone to error.They constitute assumptions and shortcuts that can improve decision-making efficiency,but they frequently lead to serious errors in judgment.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 17Problem Identification and FramingBounded rationality can le

18、ad to the following difficulties in problem identification:Perceptual defence.Problem defined in terms of functional specialty.Problem defined in terms of solution.Problem diagnosed in terms of symptoms.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 18Problem Identification and Framing(continued

19、)When a problem is identified,it is framed in some way.A$10,000 expenditure can be framed as a cost or an investment.Different decision frames can lead to very different decisions.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 19Problem Identification and Framing(continued)Rational decision make

20、rs should be very self-conscious about how they have framed problems.They should try out alternative frames.They should avoid overarching,universal frames.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 20Information SearchThe perfectly rational decision maker has free and instantaneous access to

21、 all information necessary to clarify the problem and develop alternative solutions.Bounded rationality suggests that information search can be slow and costly.Decision makers can have too little or too much information.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 21Too Little InformationSomet

22、imes,decision makers do not acquire enough information to make a good decision.Several cognitive biases contribute to this such as using whatever information is most readily available and the tendency to be overconfident.Confirmation bias refers to the tendency to seek out information that conforms

23、to ones own definition of or solution to a problem.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 22Too Much InformationToo much information can also damage the quality of decisions.Information overload is the reception of more information than is necessary to make effective decisions.Informatio

24、n overload can lead to errors,omissions,delays,and cutting corners.Decision makers seem to think that more is better.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 23Alternative Development,Evaluation,and ChoiceThe perfectly rational decision maker exhibits maximization the choice of the decisio

25、n alternative with the greatest expected value.For the decision maker working under bounded rationality,alternative solutions and probabilities of success are not all known.Cognitive biases also come into play.People are especially weak intuitive statisticians.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapt

26、er 11/Slide 24Alternative Development,Evaluation,and Choice(continued)People avoid incorporating existing data about the likelihood of events(“base rates”)into their decisions.Large samples warrant more confidence than small samples.Decision makers often overestimate the odds of complex chains of ev

27、ents occurring.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 25Alternative Development,Evaluation,and Choice(continued)People are poor at revising estimates of probabilities and values as they acquire additional information.The anchoring effect illustrates that decision makers do not adjust the

28、ir estimates enough from some initial estimate that serves as an anchor.It is possible to reduce some of these cognitive biases by making people more accountable for their decisions.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 26Alternative Development,Evaluation,and Choice(continued)The perfe

29、ctly rational decision maker can evaluate alternative solutions against a single criterion economic gain.The decision maker who is bounded by reality might have to factor in other criteria such as political acceptability.The decision maker working under bounded rationality frequently“satisfices”rath

30、er than maximizes.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 27SatisficingSatisficing means that the decision maker establishes an adequate level of acceptability for a solution to a problem and then screens solutions until he or she finds one that exceeds this level.When this occurs,evaluat

31、ion of alternatives ceases,and the solution is chosen for implementation.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 28Risky Decision MakingChoosing between decision alternatives often involves an element of risk.When people view a problem as a choice between losses,they tend to make risky de

32、cisions.When people frame the alternatives as a choice between gains they tend to make conservative decisions.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 29Risky Decision Making(continued)It is important to be aware of what reference point you are using when you frame decision alternatives.Fr

33、aming a problem as a choice between losses can contribute to a foolish level of risk taking.Learning history can modify preferences for or against risk.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 30Solution ImplementationDecision makers are often dependent on others to implement their decisio

34、ns,and it might be difficult to anticipate their ability or motivation to do so.Implementation problems often occur when those who must implement a decision are not the ones who made the decision.Cross-functional teams can help prevent these kinds of implementation problems.Copyright 2011 Pearson Ca

35、nada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 31Solution EvaluationThe perfectly rational decision maker should be able to evaluate the effectiveness of a decision with calm,objective detachment.The bounded decision might encounter problems at this stage of the process:JustificationHindsightCopyright 2011 Pearson Canad

36、a Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 32JustificationSubstantial dissonance can be aroused when a decision turns out to be faulty.To prevent such dissonance,decision makers sometimes avoid careful evaluations or devote their energy to trying to justify a faulty decision.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11

37、/Slide 33Sunk CostsThe justification of faulty decisions is best seen in the irrational treatment of sunk costs.Sunk costs are permanent losses of resources incurred as the result of a decision.Since these resources have been lost due to a past decision,they should not enter into future decisions.Co

38、pyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 34Escalation of CommitmentPeople often“throw good resources after bad,”acting as if they can recoup sunk costs.This process is known as escalation of commitment to an apparently failing course of action.Escalation of commitment refers to the tendency

39、to invest additional resources in an apparently failing course of action.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 35Escalation of Commitment(continued)It can happen even when the current decision maker is not responsible for previous sunk costs and can occur in competitive and non-competit

40、ive situations.Groups are more prone than individuals to escalate commitment.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 36Escalation of Commitment(continued)Reasons for escalation of commitment:Dissonance reduction.Social norm for consistent behaviour.Motivation to not appear wasteful.The wa

41、y the problem is framed.Personality,moods,and emotions.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 37Preventing Escalation of CommitmentEncourage continuous experimentation with reframing the problem.Set specific goals for the project in advance that must be met if more resources are to be in

42、vested.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 38Preventing Escalation of Commitment(continued)Place more emphasis in evaluating managers on how they made decisions and less on decision outcomes.Separate initial and subsequent decision making.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/S

43、lide 39HindsightThe evaluation of decisions is also inhibited by faulty hindsight.Hindsight refers to the tendency to review the decision-making process that was used to find what was done right or wrong.It often reflects a cognitive bias.It is the tendency to assume,after the fact,that we knew all

44、along what the outcome of a decision would be.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 40Hindsight(continued)Another form of faulty hindsight is the tendency to take personal responsibility for successful decision outcomes while denying responsibility for unsuccessful outcomes.Copyright 20

45、11 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 41How Emotion and Mood Affect Decision MakingStrong emotions frequently figure in the decision making process.Emotions can help decision making but strong emotions can also be a hindrance.Mood affects what and how people think when making decisions.Mood has the

46、 greatest impact on uncertain,ambiguous decisions of the type that are especially crucial for organizations.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 42How Emotion and Mood Affect Decision Making(continued)Research on mood and decision making reveals that:People in a positive(negative)mood

47、tend to remember positive(negative)information.People in a positive(negative)mood tend to evaluate objects,people,and events more positively(negatively).Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 43How Emotion and Mood Affect Decision Making(continued)People in a good mood tend to overestima

48、te the likelihood that good events will occur and underestimate the occurrence of bad events.People in a bad mood do the opposite.People in a good mood adopt simplified,shortcut decision-making strategies,more likely violating the rational model.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 44H

49、ow Emotion and Mood Affect Decision Making(continued)People in a negative mood are prone to approach decisions in a more deliberate,systematic,detailed way.Positive mood promotes more creative,intuitive decision making.Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.Chapter 11/Slide 45Rational Decision Making A S

50、ummaryThe rational decision-making model provides a good guide for how many decisions should be made.It provides only a partially accurate view of how they are made.For complex,unfamiliar decisions,the rational model provides a pretty good picture of how people actually make decisions.Copyright 2011