Making Decisionlwt.pptx

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1、1111Making DecisionMaking Decision1 Concept of decision2 Rationality and bounded rationality 3 Types of decision4 Decision making steps2000-11王青-管理学院-上海交通大学Managerial Decision MakingManagerial Decision MakinglDecision making:the process by which managers respond to opportunities and threats by analy

2、zing options,and making decisions about goals and courses of action.2000-12王青-管理学院-上海交通大学lDecisions in response to opportunities:managers respond to ways to improve organizational performance.lDecisions in response to threats:occurs when managers are impacted by adverse events to the organization.20

3、00-13王青-管理学院-上海交通大学Rational decision-The Classical ModelRational decision-The Classical ModelList alternatives List alternatives&consequences&consequencesRank each alternative Rank each alternative from low to highfrom low to highSelect bestSelect bestalternativealternativeAssumes all informationis

4、available to managerAssumes manager canprocess informationAssumes manager knowsthe best future course ofthe organization lUnfortunately,mangers often do not have all(or even most)required information2000-14王青-管理学院-上海交通大学Bounded rational decisionBounded rational decision lAdministrative Model of deci

5、sion making:Challenged the classical assumptions that managers have and process all the information.As a result,decision making is risky.lBounded rationality:There is a large number of alternatives and information is vast so that managers cannot consider it all.Decisions are limited by peoples cogni

6、tive abilities.2000-15王青-管理学院-上海交通大学Information is IncompleteInformation is IncompleteUncertaintyUncertainty&risk&riskAmbiguousAmbiguousInformationInformationTime constraints&information costsIncompleteIncompleteInformationInformationlIncomplete information:most managers do not see all alternatives

7、and decide based on incomplete information.2000-16王青-管理学院-上海交通大学Decision Making StepsDecision Making StepsRecognize need for Recognize need for a decisiona decisionFrame the problemFrame the problemGenerate&assess Generate&assess alternativesalternativesChoose among Choose among alternativesalternat

8、ivesImplement chosenImplement chosenalternativealternativeLearn from feedbackLearn from feedbackFigure 6.42000-17王青-管理学院-上海交通大学Decision Making StepsDecision Making Steps1.Recognize need for a decision:Managers must first realize that a decision must be made.lBegin a decision need two conditions:Cond

9、ition 1:find a gap between aim n present performance.Or environment changes.Condition 2:necessary resource.As authority,found,information,human resource 2000-18王青-管理学院-上海交通大学A decision making of a new carlOne car of a factory was broken,it brings some trouble to the daily business,and there still is

10、 surplus income of last year.Buy a new car Buy a second-hand car*Repair the broken car Rent a car2000-19王青-管理学院-上海交通大学Managers must develop feasible alternative courses of action.Acura;Chevrolet;Honda;Hyundai;Mazda;Nissan;Plymouth;Pontiac;Toyota Camry;Volkswagen Passat;Volvo.2 Generate alternatives2

11、000-110王青-管理学院-上海交通大学The advantages&disadvantages of each alternativeSpecify criteria(standard)Allocation of weights to criteriaAnalysis of alternatives.3.Evaluate alternativesCriteriaWeight Price10Comfort8Durable5Repair record5Function 3Easy to drive12000-111王青-管理学院-上海交通大学Alternatives PriCoDuReFuDr

12、 totalAcura 5 61010 710229Chevrolet 7 8 5 6 4 7208Honda accord 5 81010 7 7242Hyundai 7 7 5 4 7 7199Mazda 7 5 7 7 4 7199Nissan 8 5 7 9 7 7218Plymouth 10 7 3 3 3 5200Pontiac 410 5 51010210Toyota camry 6 71010 7 7244Volkswagenpassat 4 7 5 410 8 179Volvo 2 710 9 4 51882000-112王青-管理学院-上海交通大学Managers rank

13、 alternatives and decide Toyota Camry5.Implement choose alternativeManagers must now carry out the alternative.6.Learn from feedbackmanagers should consider what went right and wrong with the decision and learn for the future.4.Choose among alternatives2000-113王青-管理学院-上海交通大学lStructure of decision:lT

14、echnique of decision lGroup of decision Types of Decision2000-114王青-管理学院-上海交通大学Structure of Decision Structure of Decision lProgrammed Decisions:routine,almost automatic process.Managers have made decision many times before.There are rules or guidelines to follow.Example:Deciding to reorder office s

15、upplies.lNon-programmed Decisions:unusual situations that have not been often addressed.No rules to follow since the decision is new.These decisions are made based on information,and a mangers intuition,and judgment.Example:Should the firm invest in a new technology?2000-115王青-管理学院-上海交通大学Technique o

16、f DecisionlCertainty Analysis:A situation in which a manager can make accurate decisions because the outcome of every alternative is known.lRisk Analysis:Those conditions in which the decision maker is able to estimate the probability of certain outcomes.lUncertainty Analysis:A situation in which a

17、decision maker has neither certainty nor reasonable probability estimates available.2000-116王青-管理学院-上海交通大学Certainty AnalysislBreakeven Analysis:a technique for identifying the point at which total revenue is just sufficient to cover total cost.lLinear programming:a mathematical technique that solves

18、 resource allocation problems.2000-117王青-管理学院-上海交通大学盈亏平衡分析 Break-even analysisCQ 0CSF 固定成本固定成本V 变动成本变动成本S 销售收入销售收入2000-118王青-管理学院-上海交通大学计算公式X0：盈亏平衡产量 P ：单位产品价格F ：固定成本 C ：单位产品成本TR：目标利润2000-119王青-管理学院-上海交通大学盈亏平衡实例：l假定戴夫复印机服务公司规定，每复印一假定戴夫复印机服务公司规定，每复印一张纸美分，如果固定成本为每年张纸美分，如果固定成本为每年美元，可变成本每张美分。美元，可变成本每张美分

19、。？求盈亏平衡点？求盈亏平衡点？若要求年销售收入达到美元，？若要求年销售收入达到美元，应达到多少服务量？应达到多少服务量？l（1美元美元=10美分）美分）/2000-120王青-管理学院-上海交通大学盈亏平衡在实际生活中的应用l作用：作用：用于确定目标收入产量用于确定目标收入产量;确定无亏产品产量确定无亏产品产量l实际生活中的例子实际生活中的例子影剧院的娱乐业的票影剧院的娱乐业的票房销售最低限房销售最低限;据平衡点数值（最基本利润值）据平衡点数值（最基本利润值）选择最佳（预达利润数值）方案选择最佳（预达利润数值）方案 /2000-121王青-管理学院-上海交通大学线性规划Linear prog

20、ramming l当决策变量为可控变量，且取值是连续的，当决策变量为可控变量，且取值是连续的，目标函数和约束条件都线性时，称模型是目标函数和约束条件都线性时，称模型是线性规划 l规划问题的数学模型包含三个组成要素规划问题的数学模型包含三个组成要素决策变量决策变量目标函数目标函数约束条件约束条件/2000-122王青-管理学院-上海交通大学线性规划实例l某工厂生产两种手枪，左轮手枪某工厂生产两种手枪，左轮手枪 R，半自动半自动手枪手枪 S，具体情况如下：具体情况如下：部门部门单位产品单位产品所需工时所需工时月生产能月生产能力力 左轮手枪左轮手枪R半自动手半自动手枪枪S（小时）（小时）制造制造 2

21、 4 1200 装配装配 2 2 900每单位利润每单位利润 100 1802000-123王青-管理学院-上海交通大学线性规划数解步骤l建立目标函数和约束方程建立目标函数和约束方程 最大化利润最大化利润=100 R+180 S 2 R+4 S =1200（月制造生产能力约束）月制造生产能力约束）2 R+2 S =900 （月装配生产能力约束）月装配生产能力约束）求解：求解：R=300;S=150;最大化利润最大化利润=75000 部门部门每单位产品每单位产品所需工时所需工时月生产能力月生产能力 左轮手枪左轮手枪R半自动手枪半自动手枪S（小时）（小时）制造制造 2 4 1200 装配装配 2

22、2 900每单位利润每单位利润 100 1802000-124王青-管理学院-上海交通大学线性规划的图解RS600300400500100200100400500600200300 0 部门部门每单位产品每单位产品所需工时所需工时月生产能月生产能力力 左轮手枪左轮手枪R半自动手枪半自动手枪S（小时）（小时）制造制造 2 4 1200 装配装配 2 2 900每单位利每单位利润润 100 180装配装配制造制造2000-125王青-管理学院-上海交通大学线性规划在实际中的应用：l选择运输路线使运输成本最小选择运输路线使运输成本最小l决定有限数量资源能够生产产品的产量决定有限数量资源能够生产产品的

23、产量l各品牌间分配广告预算各品牌间分配广告预算l项目的最优人力分派项目的最优人力分派/2000-126王青-管理学院-上海交通大学Risk Analysisl为开发一种新产品，需要为工厂投资添置一种新的为开发一种新产品，需要为工厂投资添置一种新的专用工艺设备。专用工艺设备。有两个方案有两个方案：其一是外购现成的专用设备其一是外购现成的专用设备,投资投资15万元万元；其二是对现有设备改造（自制），投资需其二是对现有设备改造（自制），投资需10万元。万元。l这两种方案的效益与原材料的质量有很大关系，原这两种方案的效益与原材料的质量有很大关系，原材料的情况分成材料的情况分成两种状态两种状态：质量好，

24、发生概率为质量好，发生概率为0.35质量差质量差,发生概率为发生概率为0.65/2000-127王青-管理学院-上海交通大学决策表 质量好质量好 质量差质量差 期望收益值期望收益值(万元万元)概率概率 0.35 0.65自制自制 120 30 1200.35+300.65=61.5外购外购 300-100 3000.35+(-100)0.65=40自制方案净收益 61.5 10=51.5 万元*外购方案净收益 40 15=25 万元2000-128王青-管理学院-上海交通大学Uncertainty Analysisl无从估计事件发生概率的情况下，进行决策无从估计事件发生概率的情况下，进行决策的

25、方法。选择那一方案受决策者心理导向影的方法。选择那一方案受决策者心理导向影响响/2000-129王青-管理学院-上海交通大学不确定决策实例l大通曼哈顿银行在美国东北部推广大通曼哈顿银行在美国东北部推广Visa卡卡采取了三种竞争行动。采取了三种竞争行动。l同时同时纽约花旗银行纽约花旗银行在同样的地区为推广在同样的地区为推广花旗的信用卡制定了四种战略。花旗的信用卡制定了四种战略。l这四种战略因曼哈顿实施不同策略有不这四种战略因曼哈顿实施不同策略有不同的最终利润。同的最终利润。乐观的乐观法乐观的乐观法大中取大法大中取大法悲观的悲观法悲观的悲观法小中取大法小中取大法最小后悔值法最小后悔值法最大最小后悔

26、值法最大最小后悔值法 2000-130王青-管理学院-上海交通大学花旗收益矩阵花旗银行花旗银行大通曼大通曼哈顿银哈顿银行反应行反应乐观法乐观法 悲观法悲观法营销战略营销战略CA1CA2CA3MaxMin S1 1314111411 S291518189 S32421152415 S418142828142000-131王青-管理学院-上海交通大学后悔值法（遗憾矩阵）花旗银行花旗银行 大通大通 曼哈顿银行曼哈顿银行 反应反应营销战略营销战略 CA1 CA2 CA3最大遗憾最大遗憾 S1（13）11（14）7（11）1717 S2（9）15 (15)6 (18)1015 S3（24）0（21）0

27、(15)1313 S4（18）6 (14)7 (28)072000-132王青-管理学院-上海交通大学Group Decision and individual MakingGroup Decision and individual MakingAdvantage of group decision:lGenerates more alternatives lProvides more complete informationlIncreases acceptance of a solutionlIncreases legitimacyDisadvantage of group decisio

28、n:lTime consuming.lMinority domination.lPressures to conform(groupthink).lAmbiguous responsibility.2000-133王青-管理学院-上海交通大学BrainstormingBrainstorminglManagers meet face-to-face to generate and debate many alternatives.Group members are not allowed to evaluate alternatives until all alternatives are li

29、sted.Be creative and radical in stating alternatives.When all are listed,then the pros and cons of each are discussed and a short list created.2000-134王青-管理学院-上海交通大学Delphi TechniqueDelphi TechniquelProvides for a written format without having all managers meet face-to-face.Problem is distributed in

30、written form to managers who then generate written alternatives.Responses are received and summarized by top managers.These results are sent back to participants for feedback,and ranking.The process continues until consensus is reached.Delphi allows distant managers to participate.2000-135王青-管理学院-上海交通大学