港口、铁路、高速公路行业投资分析53512.pptx

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1、蒸蒸日上的中国港口业蒸蒸日上的中国港口业 分析员分析员:郑栋郑栋2007年年8月月12日日1内容提要内容提要 第一章 行业基本面回顾 第二章 重点公司推荐2第一章第一章行业基本面回顾行业基本面回顾3吞吐量大增吞吐量大增.GDP和外贸增长是主要动力和外贸增长是主要动力 今年上半年国内主要港口的吞吐量同比上升15.5%,增幅较上年同期略低2个百分点。上半年中国GDP增长11.5%,外贸增长23.3%,成为港口吞吐量上升的最重要动力。资料来源:CEIC,中金公司研究部This report is based on information available to the public.No repr

2、esentation is made that it is accurate or complete.This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned.China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it(CICC)may have positions in,and may effect transactions i

3、n securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies.This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation(Hong Kong)Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong

4、 Securities Limited.Copyright of this document belongs to CICC.Any form of unauthorized distribution,reproduction,publication,release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission.4集装箱业务表现最为强劲集装箱业务表现最为强劲资料来源:中金公司研究部,中国航贸网在港口业务中,今年上半年集装箱吞吐量创下24.4%的同比升幅,较

5、上年同期的增速高1.2个百分点,在所有港口业务中居首。This report is based on information available to the public.No representation is made that it is accurate or complete.This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned.China International Capital Corporation

6、Limited and others associated with it(CICC)may have positions in,and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies.This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International

7、Capital Corporation(Hong Kong)Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited.Copyright of this document belongs to CICC.Any form of unauthorized distribution,reproduction,publication,release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICC

8、s written permission.5集装箱业务增长的动力集装箱业务增长的动力:外贸增长外贸增长,出口升级及运输集装箱出口升级及运输集装箱化率的提升化率的提升资料来源:CEIC,辽宁师大,中金公司研究部 我们的宏观分析小组预计今明两年外贸将分别增长26%和20%。中国的出口结构继续升级。中国的集装箱化率远低于国际同业。我们估计未来三年，中国港口集装箱业务年复合增长率将达 20%。This report is based on information available to the public.No representation is made that it is accurate

9、or complete.This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned.China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it(CICC)may have positions in,and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned her

10、ein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies.This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation(Hong Kong)Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited.Copyright of this d

11、ocument belongs to CICC.Any form of unauthorized distribution,reproduction,publication,release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission.6短期内无须担忧港口吞吐能力过剩短期内无须担忧港口吞吐能力过剩据交通部规划，到2010年中国将拥有377个集装箱泊位,总设计吞吐能力为1.36亿TEU。2006年，中国集装箱吞吐量达9,300万TEU，我们预计明年将升至 1

12、.339亿TEU，到2010年底将接近设计吞吐能力。未来四年强劲的需求应会缓冲持续扩容压力，极大缓解吞吐能力过剩的担忧。This report is based on information available to the public.No representation is made that it is accurate or complete.This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned.China I

13、nternational Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it(CICC)may have positions in,and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies.This report may also be made available in

14、Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation(Hong Kong)Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited.Copyright of this document belongs to CICC.Any form of unauthorized distribution,reproduction,publication,release or quotation by any institution or indi

15、vidual is prohibited without CICCs written permission.7增值税退税调整影响不大增值税退税调整影响不大 机械和运输设备在中国的出口中占主要部分。近期的增值税退税调整对这部分的影响甚微，调整后其退税率仍高达9-11%，居于首位。中国政府鼓励高附加值机械产品的发展，这有望推升港口吞吐量。资料来源:CEIC,中金公司研究部This report is based on information available to the public.No representation is made that it is accurate or comple

16、te.This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned.China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it(CICC)may have positions in,and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and m

17、ay also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies.This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation(Hong Kong)Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited.Copyright of this document b

18、elongs to CICC.Any form of unauthorized distribution,reproduction,publication,release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission.8投资主题投资主题:内生增长及资产扩张内生增长及资产扩张腹地的经济增长潜能，尤其是外贸发展，对于港口的内生增长而言至关重要。因此，珠江三角洲、长江三角洲以及环渤海地区仍是中国港口发展的主要地区。中国港口的建设或重组将为运营商提供注资的机会。T

19、his report is based on information available to the public.No representation is made that it is accurate or complete.This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned.China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associate

20、d with it(CICC)may have positions in,and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies.This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation(Hong Kon

21、g)Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited.Copyright of this document belongs to CICC.Any form of unauthorized distribution,reproduction,publication,release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission.9第二章第二章

22、重点公司推荐重点公司推荐 10天津港天津港:审慎推荐审慎推荐天津港是我们推荐的港口类股票的首选腹地经济发展将带来货源支持 集装箱业务的快速发展加快公司的业务转型 资产注入将进一步提高盈利水平 天津港区发展空间巨大估值分析 This report is based on information available to the public.No representation is made that it is accurate or complete.This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an of

23、fer to buy or sell the securities mentioned.China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it(CICC)may have positions in,and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those c

24、ompanies.This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation(Hong Kong)Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited.Copyright of this document belongs to CICC.Any form of unauthorized distribution,reproduction,publicat

25、ion,release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission.11天津港：天津港：腹地省份腹地省份GDP将实现快于全国平均水平的增长将实现快于全国平均水平的增长资料来源:CEIC,中金公司研究部天津港直接经济腹地占全国面积的46.9%。“十五”期间，天津港腹地省份GDP增长率均快于全国平均水平。“十一五”期间，腹地经济的快速发展将极大推动天津口岸进出口总值的增长，从而为天津港货物吞吐量带来货源支持。This report is based on i

26、nformation available to the public.No representation is made that it is accurate or complete.This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned.China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it(CICC)may have

27、positions in,and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies.This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation(Hong Kong)Limited and/or China I

28、nternational Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited.Copyright of this document belongs to CICC.Any form of unauthorized distribution,reproduction,publication,release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission.12天津港：天津港：天津口岸进出口总值预测天津口岸进出口总值预

29、测资料来源:CEIC,中金公司研究部“十五”期间，天津港腹地省份的GDP出口依存度逐步上升，使得天津口岸进出口总值实现快于腹地GDP总量增长。口岸进出口总值相对腹地GDP的弹性由2001年的0.84上升至2006年的1.62。根据腹地经济GDP增长预测，我们预计未来5年天津口岸进出口总值年复合增长约20.1%。This report is based on information available to the public.No representation is made that it is accurate or complete.This document is not an of

30、fer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned.China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it(CICC)may have positions in,and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to pe

31、rform investment banking services for those companies.This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation(Hong Kong)Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited.Copyright of this document belongs to CICC.Any form of un

32、authorized distribution,reproduction,publication,release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission.13天津港：天津港：进出口结构升级整体利好集装箱吞吐量的增长速度进出口结构升级整体利好集装箱吞吐量的增长速度资料来源:CEIC,中金公司研究部2001年2005年期间，天津市进出口结构出现较为明显的升级趋势：机械及运输设备进出口占比由2001年的55%上升至2005年的63%。天津口岸进出口结构升级

33、对于集装箱吞吐量的影响以正面为主。集装箱吞吐量增长相对进出口总值的弹性在2004年见底之后呈现明显回升趋势，预计天津口岸进出口结构仍将继续升级，进一步推动集装箱吞吐量实现快于进出口总值的增长。This report is based on information available to the public.No representation is made that it is accurate or complete.This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or s

34、ell the securities mentioned.China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it(CICC)may have positions in,and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies.This r

35、eport may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation(Hong Kong)Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited.Copyright of this document belongs to CICC.Any form of unauthorized distribution,reproduction,publication,release or

36、quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission.14天津港：集装箱天津港：集装箱需求强劲增长需求强劲增长资料来源:公司数据，中金公司研究部2006年天津港区在建的集装箱项目主要包括北港池一、二、三期，预计2009年全部建成后，天津港区的集装箱吞吐能力将增长约2.44倍至1343万TEU左右。我们预计天津口岸集装箱吞吐量将于“十一五”期间年复合增长22.2%，于2010年达到1,308万TEU，对产能利用率形成强烈的支撑。需求的强劲增长亦将极大减少天津港股份与天津港

37、发展的竞争风险。This report is based on information available to the public.No representation is made that it is accurate or complete.This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned.China International Capital Corporation Limited and others

38、associated with it(CICC)may have positions in,and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies.This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation

39、(Hong Kong)Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited.Copyright of this document belongs to CICC.Any form of unauthorized distribution,reproduction,publication,release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permissio

40、n.天津港集装箱吞吐量及产能利用率天津港集装箱吞吐量及产能利用率15天津港：天津港：天津港集装箱分泊位吞吐量预测天津港集装箱分泊位吞吐量预测资料来源:中金公司研究部2006年公司投资11.7亿元投资北港池3期合资公司，占51%股权，预计于2008年下半年投产，建成后将成为港区最大的集装箱项目。受利于北港池3期工程，预计集装箱吞吐量将于20052010年期间年复合增长25.3%至2010年的694万TEU，增长速度快于整个天津港区约3.1个百分点。于天津港区集装箱吞吐量的市场份额将由2005年的47%上升6个百分点至2010年的53%。This report is based on inform

41、ation available to the public.No representation is made that it is accurate or complete.This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned.China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it(CICC)may have posit

42、ions in,and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies.This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation(Hong Kong)Limited and/or China Intern

43、ational Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited.Copyright of this document belongs to CICC.Any form of unauthorized distribution,reproduction,publication,release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission.16天津港：天津港：资产注入的盈利增厚远超出预期资产注入的盈利增厚远超出

44、预期资料来源:中金公司研究部天津港股份将向 天津港集团定向增发不超过2.26亿股，用于收购天津港集团未上市运营资产。我们预计资产收购后，公司2007、2008年每股盈利分别为0.583元及0.659元，对应增厚效应46%及58%。This report is based on information available to the public.No representation is made that it is accurate or complete.This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of a

45、n offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned.China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it(CICC)may have positions in,and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for tho

46、se companies.This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation(Hong Kong)Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited.Copyright of this document belongs to CICC.Any form of unauthorized distribution,reproduction,publ

47、ication,release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission.17天津港：天津港：天津港区发展空间巨大天津港区发展空间巨大资料来源:公司数据，中金公司研究部东疆港区：东疆港区占地约30平方公里，其中10平方公里的地区为东疆保税港区，是我国目前规模最大的保税港区。南疆散杂货物流中心：配合“北煤南移”的策略转移，天津港集团投资开发了南疆散杂货物流中心，占地约13平方公里。临港工业区：天津临港工业区占地面积将达到150平方公里，相当于目前整个天津

48、港区的1.4倍。预计到2010年，临港工业区将实现销售收入1000亿元，GDP达到300亿元以上。This report is based on information available to the public.No representation is made that it is accurate or complete.This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned.China Internationa

49、l Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it(CICC)may have positions in,and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies.This report may also be made available in Hong Kong b

50、y China International Capital Corporation(Hong Kong)Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited.Copyright of this document belongs to CICC.Any form of unauthorized distribution,reproduction,publication,release or quotation by any institution or individual is p