全球金融危机对亚洲的影响globalrecessiona(共26张PPT).pptx

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1、Global Recession and Its Impact on the Asian EconomylDr.Bernardo M.VillegaslNovember 2008培训专用Black Thursday 1929lStock Market CrashlPassive Federal Reserve SystemlIgnorance of Keynesian Pump PriminglPanic in the Banking SectorlUnemployment Rate of 25%lComplete Dominance of the US Economy in the Worl

2、dlWorld Financial Market Illiquid培训专用Black Monday 2008lReal Estate BubblelProactive Federal Reserve SystemlUS Government Pump PriminglNo Panic in the Banking SectorlNo Crash in the Stock MarketlUnemployment Rate ManageablelCountervailing Power of Emerging Markets lLiquidity of Sovereign FundslMassiv

3、e intervention of European governments培训专用Growth Rates of Major EconomiesF forecastsSource:World Economic Outlook,IMF,Oct 2008Traditional Engines of Growth培训专用World Growth(GDP Growth Rates)F forecastsSource:World Economic Outlook,IMF,Oct 2008Traditional Engines of Growth培训专用Global Growth SlowdownlFi

4、nancial meltdown in the U.S.lHigh rates of inflationlTight credit despite lower interest ratelHigh albeit moderating food and fuel priceslSlowdown in the EU and JapanlThe U.S.twin(fiscal and trade)deficits continue to cause concern Threats to World Growth培训专用U.S.Economy:Still no end to financial tur

5、moillHuge losses in the financial sectorlStill uncertain results of U.S.government bailouts of failing bankslPreviously robust private consumption spending has been depressed by the slump in the housing marketlReal GDP growth to fall from 2.0%in 2007 to 1.6%or lower in 2008培训专用Euro Area EconomylActi

6、vity in Western Europe gathered momentum in 2006.GDP growth in the Euro area reached 2.8%,double its pace in 2005 lSlowing of growth in 2008 to 1.3%from 2.6%in 2007lFalling housing investmentslGrowth should remain relatively stronger in Germany sustained by good export performance in the face of wea

7、ker consumer demandlThe slowdown will reflect an uptick in unemployment in the Euro area,especially in Spain培训专用Japanese EconomylPolitical instability caused by successive resignations of two Prime MinisterslDespite a stronger than expected GDP outturn in the first quarter of 2008,Japans economic ou

8、tlook is weak for 2008 and 2009.lThe yen weakened against the U.S.dollar in June but may strengthen if U.S.economy continues to be troubled by financial crisis.lConsumer prices will rise in 2008lReserves may be used to help ailing banks in the Asian region培训专用Worlds Largest Economies培训专用GDP Growth R

9、atesAsian Financial CrisisSource:ADB Key Indicators 2002培训专用GDP Growth RatesAsia:The Most Dynamic Region培训专用Emerging Engines of Growth BRICA培训专用Emerging Engines of Growth The Next Eleven培训专用Emerging Engines of Growth GDP%Change培训专用lOverheating economy:possible credit and stock market bubblelInflatio

10、n rate reached 6.5%in October 2007,the highest monthly inflation in 11 yearslEfforts to cool down economy may result in hard landinglUnderdeveloped banking sectorlUndervalued currencylUncontrolled local officialslShortage of local entrepreneurs and managerslHigh rates of povertylStricter regulations

11、 in ITThreats in ChinaBRICA培训专用Opportunities in ChinaGDP growth of 8%or over for the last two decadesDomestic market of some 250-300 million high-income consumersHigh rate of investment at 50%of GDPForeign direct investments(FDIs)of US$60 billion or more yearlySurging raw material demand Greater int

12、egration of China and other Asian countries(e.g.ASEAN+China)Demand for middle managersBRICA培训专用ASEANGDP Growth Rates and Per Capita IncomeBRICA培训专用Domestic MarketsSource:ADB Key Indicators 2007BRICA培训专用Savings and Capital Formation Source:ADB Key Indicators 2007BRICA培训专用Asian Economic Trends 2008-20

13、10lDomestic markets as engines of growth:double track strategylChina as engine of growth of the Asia Pacific regionlThe predominance of China in manufacturing lGrowth in intra-regional trade:increased complementaritylContinuing battle against mass poverty in the big economieslOutsourcing of manufact

14、uring and services to AsialOutsourcing is intra-company as well as inter-countrylFocus on agricultural productivity in Southeast AsialThe emergence of SMEs and microenterpriseslThe“entrepreneurial challenge”to centrally planned economieslThe challenge of innovations and productivity 培训专用Consumer Tre

15、nds in AsialNon-income consumption factorslExpanding middle classlDiversity of consumer tastes and lifestylesl“Mallification”of Asian cities lDemographic gift stage in South and Southeast AsialRapid aging in Northeast Asia and SingaporelWidespread use of EnglishlThe telecom revolutionlSpread of univ

16、ersity education培训专用Selected Sunrise Industries in AsialAgribusinesslMininglTriple Ts:Transport,Telecom,and TourismlInfrastructureslAutomobileslConsumer durableslIT-enabled and IT serviceslLogistics and retailinglHealth care and medical tourismlEducationlConstruction and real estatelFour Fs:Food,Fas

17、hion,Furniture,Fun培训专用Global Recession and Its Impact on the Asian EconomylThank you.培训专用谢谢观看/欢迎下载BY FAITH I MEAN A VISION OF GOOD ONE CHERISHES AND THE ENTHUSIASM THAT PUSHES ONE TO SEEK ITS FULFILLMENT REGARDLESS OF OBSTACLES.BY FAITH I BY FAITH培训专用内容总结Global Recession and Its Impact on the Asian

18、Economy。Dr.Bernardo M.Villegas。Black Monday 2008。Financial meltdown in the U.S.。Worlds Largest Economies。GDP Growth Rates。Opportunities in China。Asian Economic Trends 2008-2010。Non-income consumption factors。“Mallification”of Asian cities。IT-enabled and IT services。Logistics and retailing。谢谢观看/欢迎下载培训专用