英语学习中级宏观经济学英文.pptx

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1、会计学1英语学习中级宏观经济学英文英语学习中级宏观经济学英文The Mundell-Fleming modeln nRobert A.MundellRobert A.Mundell1999 Nobel Price in Economics1999 Nobel Price in Economicsa.a.Monetary&fiscal policy under different ex-rate regimesMonetary&fiscal policy under different ex-rate regimesb.b.Optimal currency areaOptimal currenc

2、y areaOther contribution:Other contribution:a.a.Mundell-Tobin effectMundell-Tobin effectb.b.International tradeInternational trade第1页/共32页The Mundell-Fleming Modeln nCrucial assumption:SOE r=r*n nComponents of the modelY=C(Y-T)+I(r*)+G+NX(e)M/P=L(r,Y)r=r*第2页/共32页The Mundell-Fleming Model1.1.The mode

3、l on a Y-r graphrYIS(e)LMr=r*第3页/共32页The Mundell-Fleming ModelIS curve and ex-rate(IS curve is drawn for a given ex-rate)Ex-rate domestic currency_ IM _&EX _(NX_)IS shifts _ Y _第4页/共32页The Mundell-Fleming Modeln nWhat if domestic r r*rYIS(e)LMr*第5页/共32页The Mundell-Fleming Model2.2.The model on a Y-e

4、 graph1)1)Goods market IS*curveE=C(Y-T)+I(r*)+G+NX(e)e2e2EYY=EEe1Y1Y2IS*eYe1NXeNX(e)第6页/共32页The Mundell-Fleming Model2)Money market and LM*curve M/P=L(r*,Y)rYYLMer*LM*第7页/共32页The Mundell-Fleming Model3)IS*&LM*eYIS*LM*第8页/共32页Ex-rate Regimen nHistory of world ex-rate regimesa.a.Gold standard(19th cen

5、tury)b.b.Bretton Woods system(1944-60s)c.c.Jamaica system(1976)d.d.Bretton Woods II(prediction)第9页/共32页Ex-rate Regimen n1982分类:1.1.钉住汇率:钉住单一（合成）货币2.2.有限灵活汇率:对单一货币在汇率带内进行浮动3.3.更加灵活汇率:管理浮动;按一套指标调整;自由浮动第10页/共32页Ex-rate Regime第11页/共32页Ex-rate Regimen n19991999分类分类:1.1.无独立法定货币：无独立法定货币：一国采用另一国货币作为一国采用另一国货

6、币作为唯一法定货币，或隶属于某一货币联盟，共唯一法定货币，或隶属于某一货币联盟，共同使用同一法定货币。同使用同一法定货币。2.2.货币发行局制度：货币发行当局根据法定承货币发行局制度：货币发行当局根据法定承诺按照固定汇率来承兑指定的外币，并通过诺按照固定汇率来承兑指定的外币，并通过对货币发行权的限制来保证履行法定承兑义对货币发行权的限制来保证履行法定承兑义务务-严格固定汇率制严格固定汇率制第12页/共32页Ex-rate Regime3.3.其他传统的固定钉住制：国家将其货币以一个固定的汇率钉其他传统的固定钉住制：国家将其货币以一个固定的汇率钉住（官方或者实际）某一种主要外币或者钉住某一篮子外

7、币，住（官方或者实际）某一种主要外币或者钉住某一篮子外币，汇率波动围绕着中心汇率上下不超过汇率波动围绕着中心汇率上下不超过1%1%4.4.钉住平行汇率带：汇率被保持在官方或者实际的固定汇率带钉住平行汇率带：汇率被保持在官方或者实际的固定汇率带内波动，其波幅超过围绕中心汇率上下各内波动，其波幅超过围绕中心汇率上下各1%1%的幅度的幅度5.5.爬行钉住：汇率按照固定的、预先宣布的比率作较小的定期爬行钉住：汇率按照固定的、预先宣布的比率作较小的定期调整或依据所选取的定量指标的变化作定期调整调整或依据所选取的定量指标的变化作定期调整6.6.爬行带内浮动：汇率围绕着中心汇率在一定幅度内上下浮动，爬行带内

8、浮动：汇率围绕着中心汇率在一定幅度内上下浮动，同时中心汇率按照固定的、预先宣布的比率作定期调整或根同时中心汇率按照固定的、预先宣布的比率作定期调整或根据所选取的定量指标的变化作定期调整；据所选取的定量指标的变化作定期调整；7.7.不事先宣布汇率干预方式的管理浮动：货币当局通过在外汇不事先宣布汇率干预方式的管理浮动：货币当局通过在外汇市场上积极干预来影响汇率的变动，但不事先宣布对汇率的市场上积极干预来影响汇率的变动，但不事先宣布对汇率的干预方式。干预方式。-中间汇率制中间汇率制第13页/共32页Ex-rate Regime8.8.独立浮动：汇率基本上由市场决定，偶尔的外汇干预旨在缓和汇率变动、防

9、止汇率过度波动，而不是为汇率建立一个基准水平-完全浮动汇率制第14页/共32页Ex-rate Regime第15页/共32页Ex-rate Regimen n我国汇率制度：-以市场供求为基础的、单一的、有管理的浮动汇率制度“单一钉住美元的固定汇率制”第16页/共32页The SOE Under Floating Ex-raten nFiscal policyeYIS*LM*第17页/共32页The SOE Under Floating Ex-raten nExpansionary fiscal policy upward pressure on r NFI NX(offsets thein d

10、omestic D for G&S)Ex-rate 第18页/共32页The SOE Under Floating Ex-raten nMonetary policyeYIS*LM*第19页/共32页The SOE Under Floating Ex-raten nExpansionary monetary policydownward pressure on rNFINX Ex-rate第20页/共32页The SOE Under Floating Ex-rate Under a floating ex-rate system,fiscal policy does Under a float

11、ing ex-rate system,fiscal policy does NOTNOT have effect on real output/income have effect on real output/income 第21页/共32页The SOE Under Floating Ex-raten nTrade policy(import quota or tariff)eYIS*LM*第22页/共32页The SOE Under Fixed Ex-raten nHow does the system works?central bank buys/sells domestic cur

12、rencycentral bank buys/sells domestic currency monetary policy is sacrificed 第23页/共32页The SOE Under Fixed Ex-raten nReal or nominal ex-rate is fixed?Real or nominal ex-rate is fixed?Nominal?Nominal?Fixed for sure Fixed for sure Real?Real?Depends on Depends on Prices are flexible or notPrices are fle

13、xible or notSR SR NO!NO!real ex-rate also fixed real ex-rate also fixed第24页/共32页The SOE Under Fixed Ex-raten nFiscal policyeYIS*LM*第25页/共32页The SOE Under Fixed Ex-raten nMonetary policyeYIS*LM*第26页/共32页The SOE Under Fixed Ex-raten nFixed ex-rate Fixed ex-rate ex-rate cannot be changed ex-rate cannot

14、 be changedn nA country can decide to change the level at which the exchange rate is A country can decide to change the level at which the exchange rate is fixed.fixed.第27页/共32页The SOE Under Fixed Ex-raten nTrade policyeYIS*LM*第28页/共32页Summary of the M-F ModelEx-rate regime浮动固定YeNXYeNXFiscal expansi

15、on000Monetary expansion000Import restriction000第29页/共32页Summary of the M-F Modeln nThe power of monetary and fiscal policy to influence aggregate income depends on the ex-rate regime第30页/共32页Summary of the M-F Modeln nFloating:Floating:only monetary policy can affect incomeonly monetary policy can a

16、ffect incomethe expansionary impact of fiscal policy is offset by a rise in the value of the currency the expansionary impact of fiscal policy is offset by a rise in the value of the currency and a decrease in NXand a decrease in NXn nFixed:Fixed:only fiscal policy can affect incomeonly fiscal policy can affect incomethe potency of monetary policy is lost because the MS is dedicated to maintaining the the potency of monetary policy is lost because the MS is dedicated to maintaining the ex-rate at the announced levelex-rate at the announced level第31页/共32页