【市场营销英文版】04Demand课件.pptx

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1、DemandForecasting and MeasurementDemandMeasuring and forecasting market demand is probably the first major task of a marketer.Needed information for market opportunities:SizeGrowthProfit potentialSales forecasts are based on estimates of demand.Demand:MarketsWays to classify markets:Potential market

2、:set of consumers who possess a sufficient level of interest in a product or service.Available market:set of consumers who have interest,income,and access to a product or service.Target market:part of the qualified available market a company decides to pursue.Penetrated market:set of consumers who a

3、re buying the companys product or service.Demand:MeasurementKey Terms:Market demand:the total volume that would be bought by a defined customer group in a defined geographical area in a defined time period in a defined marketing environment under a defined marketing program.Market demand is not a fi

4、xed number,but a function of the stated conditions.Market forecast:market demand estimate when using a specified marketing effort.Market potential:the limit approached by market demand as marketing efforts approach infinity for a given marketing environment.Demand:MeasurementCompany demand and Sales

5、 forecastsCompany demand is the companys estimated share of market demand at alternative levels of company marketing effort in a given time period.Company sales forecast is the expected level of company sales based on a chosen marketing plan and an assumed marketing environment.Company sales potenti

6、al is the sale limit approached by the company demand as company marketing effort increase relative to competitors.Demand:Estimating Current DemandImportant Areas of Focus:Total Market Potential(TMP):the maximum number of sales that might be available to all firms in an industry during a given perio

7、d,under a given level of industry marketing effort,and environmental conditions.Area Market Potential(AMP):the definition is the same as“Total Market Potential”,except area or region is considered.Demand:Estimating Current DemandMethods Used to create estimatesTMP:potential number of buyers x the av

8、erage quantity purchased by a buyer x price(most common method used)AMP:Market Build-Up Method (B2B)Multiple Factor Index Method(B2C)Brand Development IndexDemand:Estimating Current DemandMarket Build-Up Method:identify all potential buyers and estimate their potential purchases.Multiple Factor Inde

9、x Method:identify all potential factors that could create sales,assign a weight measure to each,then create a function/model.One problem is that weight assignments due to their arbitrary nature could cause inaccurate total estimates.Demand:Estimating Current DemandBrand Development Index:index/compa

10、rison of brand sales to product category salesApplication(two different beliefs)Lower the BDI,the greater the market opportunity(due to low penetration)Higher the BDI,the greater the market opportunity(due to existing customers,a chance to reinforce customer loyalty is present or more easily capture

11、 a greater market share)Lastly,knowing actual industry sales is important:identifying competitors and estimates of their sales.This information can indicate actual market size.Demand:Estimating Future DemandEstimating future demand is called forecasting,the art of anticipating what buyers are likely

12、 to do under a given set of conditions.The more unstable the demand,the more critical is forecasting accuracy and the more elaborate the forecasting methodology.Demand:ForecastingMost companies follow a three step process when developing a sales forecast.Macroeconomic forecastIndustry forecastCompan

13、y sales forecastDemand:ForecastingMethods for sales forecasting:Survey of buyers intentionsComposite of sales force opinionsExpert opinionsPast Sales analysisMarket test methodDemand:Market EvolutionChange is the only constant.(by unknown)New needs,competitors,technology,channels,and other factors a

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